stephen_rockefeller Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe I am reading too much into this but are the deals that some people stumble upon on eBay hurting the market value of sets? Since the calculated value is based upon eBay sales then this should be the case right? A recent example is the smoking deal that a member (over 50% off) got yesterday on a set due to the sellers listing error. That sale will probably hurt the value since not that many of that set being sold. Will stuff like this even itself out eventually? Am I making an issue out of nothing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominickSoldano Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stephen, I don't see why it would be any different than real estate. If someone needs to move or the bank takes over a house and sells it below market value it pushes down prices for the neighborhood. A single sale however Does not an entire market make. I magine that would be true for lego sets as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well the only reason I ask is because the secondary market is mostly if not completely based on eBay sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich B Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe I am reading too much into this but are the deals that some people stumble upon on eBay hurting the market value of sets? Since the calculated value is based upon eBay sales then this should be the case right? A recent example is the smoking deal that a member (over 50% off) got yesterday on a set due to the sellers listing error. That sale will probably hurt the value since not that many of that set being sold. Will stuff like this even itself out eventually? Am I making an issue out of nothing? I don't think there are that many people listing prices wrong when selling on eBay. While accidents definitely happen I would like to think that it is small in comparison to the total amount of Lego being sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legodog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would imagine that it would hurt the value also. If there are thousands being sold each month then it would be very minor but since I know the set you are referring to it will most likely hurt the value because I can't see more than a 50 or so (if even that) of these being sold in a month. The same holds true for people listing sets as new that are either opened boxes or not really new. They would sell at a much lower price than a mint condition set so those would also be bringing down the value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunMan3 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I remember correctly the BP prices are based on average of last 30 sales on EBay so if only one of the 30 sells at 50% it would not make that much difference. Anyway the BP prices are just a guide line and they can be up to a month old as only updated once per month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brickpicker is a helpful automated tool to assist curious Lego buyers who want a quick look into EBay trends and prices. It's not a science, since supply/demand and panic drive most auction prices anyway. There will always be anomalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grolim Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it's a low volume seller then yes it will bring down the average value reported here a little. However, you now have a knowledge advantage and can safely assume the listed value is slightly lower than it should be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peeiempee Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Always check eBay yourself. You will get those who put a sale on for .99 at midnight and list it for 1 day and someone makes out with a set for like 5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think there are that many people listing prices wrong when selling on eBay. While accidents definitely happen I would like to think that it is small in comparison to the total amount of Lego being sold.Also what about the scammers using stolen CCs to dropship? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarCityBrickCompany Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe I am reading too much into this but are the deals that some people stumble upon on eBay hurting the market value of sets? Since the calculated value is based upon eBay sales then this should be the case right? A recent example is the smoking deal that a member (over 50% off) got yesterday on a set due to the sellers listing error. That sale will probably hurt the value since not that many of that set being sold. Will stuff like this even itself out eventually? Am I making an issue out of nothing? This has been my biggest concern since the beginning - I know that the stated values have been too low, but it is a bit too late now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You have to be realistic about the prices as we have all seen sets go for crazy HIGH prices that just make you shake your head in disbelief. And we know that sellers that ship worldwide get higher prices than those that only sell in the U.S. So, what I'm saying is I think it all averages out. BP uses a 30 sale moving average and I find that too rough an estimate, especially when the tail of that average might include Christmas sales and no one has the time to go through and clean up the data. If I need to know a price I always check recent sales on ebay and I usually don't have to go further than 3 or 4 clean sales to get a good idea of selling price. I will check those prices to see if they are complete, new-in-box, worldwide shipping, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich B Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think there are that many people listing prices wrong when selling on eBay. While accidents definitely happen I would like to think that it is small in comparison to the total amount of Lego being sold.Also what about the scammers using stolen CCs to dropship? Yeah true. I mean it's so hard to track all of that though. While scammers and sellers mistakenly listing prices too low can/might throw values off a bit, I still think in the grand sheme of things scammers and sellers listing prices too low are a small fraction compared to the amount of overall sets being sold. I could be completely wrong though. I watch various sets on ebay day in and day out, and from what I've found, most of the Brickpicker value data is accurate within $5-10, even though it is roughly 15-30 days behind (Ed and Jeff can't do anything about this though as they have to wait on the Terapeak data, etc) and that is about as good as it gets in terms of tracking this stuff in my opinion. Some say the values are incorrect and either too high or too low, but I have found this to be untrue. As I said most of the stuff I watch on ebay is fairly close to the data we have. Therefore I do not think scammers or people listing sets inaccurately affect the market that much, or the values we have presented to us here on BP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich B Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I need to know a price I always check recent sales on ebay and I usually don't have to go further than 3 or 4 clean sales to get a good idea of selling price. I will check those prices to see if they are complete, new-in-box, worldwide shipping, etc. Yep, tracking current live ebay listings is the best way to know the going rate of a set you're getting ready to sell. This however can be time consuming as you have to click through various sets that are for sale to find an average price since looking at just one listing might not give you an accurate dollar figure. You then have to wait for the auction to end to see what the set you're watching sells for. That is when Brickpicker becomes extremely helpful in my opinion. You can just type in the Lego set name or item number and the current (value as of the end of last month) pops up. Easy as that! The only downside, which I already mentioned before is that it is 15-30 days behind (and that's not anyone's fault). Most sets don't change significantly in value from one month to another anyhow, unless of the course the set just went EOL or if it's the holiday season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep, tracking current live ebay listings is the best way to know the going rate of a set you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich B Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anakinisvader Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I normally dont pay too much attention to what past Ebay sales have been. I list my product for what I want for it. If it sells, awesome. If it doesn't, sooner or later it will. I usually do good til cancelled auctions and just let it ride. To answer the question, I dont believe ebay deals hurt secondary market prices. I've seen exact items sell at various different prices. Some way too high, some way too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I normally dont pay too much attention to what past Ebay sales have been. I list my product for what I want for it. If it sells, awesome. If it doesn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarCityBrickCompany Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I normally dont pay too much attention to what past Ebay sales have been. I list my product for what I want for it. If it sells, awesome. If it doesn't, sooner or later it will. I usually do good til cancelled auctions and just let it ride. To answer the question, I dont believe ebay deals hurt secondary market prices. I've seen exact items sell at various different prices. Some way too high, some way too low. The reason it could hurt is because there are people who will trust a statistical value, even if it is lower than the true value. Once enough people believe that the value is true - then it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcarin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think Brickpicker would only need to take last 5-10 items sold for more up to date comparison, cos 30 sold listings can take a long time for some sets imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNH1974 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I did not know that BP uses a 30 set rolling average. I thought it was all sales for the month, so the figure would be most accurate for higher volume items. I assume 30 is used, not 5-10, because 30 is the minimum number needed to be considered statistically accurate. (see I do remember something from my High School Maths classes). If some entered a low Buy it Now figure and it is still statistically significant and not an outlier that Ed/Jeff will remove it could lower the month's value. But only if it is a set that sells less than 30 per month. In practical terms it might mess up one of your auctions if you are trying to sell the same item and you are undercut. Something lke that happened to me last week. I was selling 8860 Car Chassis, a 1980 Technic set. I was hoping for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anakinisvader Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redeemed763 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why would you sell below retail with free shipping? I wouldn't do that even if I got the stuff for free! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone has a different profit margin they are comfortable with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNH1974 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you buy something for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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