LEGO VIP Insiders/GWP Discussion

[Captain_Obvious]

3 minutes ago, starwarsxpress said:

lol ok well I did

1) alert you it was available

2) said the brickheadz limited edition set with comics is awesome.  its about 7.25" wide x 10.25" high x 4.5" depth

sorry I didn't market it more rofl but in all seriousness its a gem

there is 21 in the us on ebay buy it now up to lowest of $74 and I imagine it will go a lot higher in time but who knows

mine's for personal any ways so doesn't matter but this might be a real diamond in the rough

if it sold out that quickly before batman day was over I guess they didn't make that many and that is why it wasn't a gwp

 

I’m just joking with you. Very thankful for the alert! Happy to have this in the stable, but if it goes for $100, which is totally possible if not more, it will go to a good home.

[starwarsxpress]

3 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Possible Tier A 

yep better photo you have of what I saw a month or so ago.  this set is awesome

Just now, Captain_Obvious said:

I’m just joking with you. Very thankful for the alert! Happy to have this in the stable, but if it goes for $100, which is totally possible if not more, it will go to a good home.

all good my friend.  enjoy your posts

[LegoWalker4]

1 hour ago, Pseudoty said:

Possible Tier A 

It looks like the white minifigure in the lower right hand corner is either contemplating if it wants to be part of this set or ending it all by jumping out into deep space after being eliminated in the game.

[Captain_Obvious]

Testing ChatGPT to analyze the 40726 sales performance and predict the best time to sell. The eBay "starting inventory" and "daily added sets" weren't exact, but I think my estimates were pretty close.

1. Sales Velocity

• 31 sets sold over 10 days gives a sales velocity of 3.1 sets per day.
• Since we're removing international sales, the actual sales velocity might be lower if some of these were from international buyers. Let's exclude the international sales and revise the calculation.

From the initial data I reviewed:

• 3 international sales were identified:
  • One from Canada on Sep 26 ($66.74 + $20.63 shipping).
  • Two from the UK on Sep 26 and Sep 24.

This leaves 28 domestic sales over the 10-day period, which gives a revised sales velocity of 2.8 sets per day.

2. Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Starting with 55 listings on Sept 17, and 1.5 new listings added per day:
  • 15 new listings would have been added over the 10-day period.
  • 31 total sets were sold (international and domestic), but adjusting for only domestic sales, 28 sets were sold.
  • This means the net change is a reduction of 13 listings from the original 55, leaving us with 48 available listings on Sept 27.

3. Price Stability

• The average price for domestic sales still hovers around $73.67 (as calculated earlier).
• Despite the sale of 28 domestic sets, the number of listings has not dropped significantly due to the new listings replenishing the supply, keeping prices stable without dramatic increases.

4. Should You Sell or Hold?

• With a revised sales velocity of 2.8 sets per day, demand remains steady, but not increasing at a rate that suggests rapid price escalation.
• Given that the number of available listings is only slightly decreasing, the likelihood of a significant short-term price spike is low unless supply drops more dramatically.
• Selling now at the current stable price of $73–$75 remains a strong option, especially if you're aiming for a reliable return.
• If you anticipate that fewer new listings will appear in the future or expect higher demand during the holiday season, holding for a potential price increase could be an option, but it may not happen quickly given current trends.

Conclusion:

With 28 domestic sets sold at a rate of 2.8/day and stable prices, selling now is a reasonable strategy. Holding out may offer some upside, but it could take time unless supply starts to decrease more rapidly.

[melting]

20 hours ago, Captain_Obvious said:

Testing ChatGPT to analyze the 40726 sales performance and predict the best time to sell. The eBay "starting inventory" and "daily added sets" weren't exact, but I think my estimates were pretty close.

1. Sales Velocity

• 31 sets sold over 10 days gives a sales velocity of 3.1 sets per day.
• Since we're removing international sales, the actual sales velocity might be lower if some of these were from international buyers. Let's exclude the international sales and revise the calculation.

From the initial data I reviewed:

• 3 international sales were identified:
  • One from Canada on Sep 26 ($66.74 + $20.63 shipping).
  • Two from the UK on Sep 26 and Sep 24.

This leaves 28 domestic sales over the 10-day period, which gives a revised sales velocity of 2.8 sets per day.

2. Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Starting with 55 listings on Sept 17, and 1.5 new listings added per day:
  • 15 new listings would have been added over the 10-day period.
  • 31 total sets were sold (international and domestic), but adjusting for only domestic sales, 28 sets were sold.
  • This means the net change is a reduction of 13 listings from the original 55, leaving us with 48 available listings on Sept 27.

3. Price Stability

• The average price for domestic sales still hovers around $73.67 (as calculated earlier).
• Despite the sale of 28 domestic sets, the number of listings has not dropped significantly due to the new listings replenishing the supply, keeping prices stable without dramatic increases.

4. Should You Sell or Hold?

• With a revised sales velocity of 2.8 sets per day, demand remains steady, but not increasing at a rate that suggests rapid price escalation.
• Given that the number of available listings is only slightly decreasing, the likelihood of a significant short-term price spike is low unless supply drops more dramatically.
• Selling now at the current stable price of $73–$75 remains a strong option, especially if you're aiming for a reliable return.
• If you anticipate that fewer new listings will appear in the future or expect higher demand during the holiday season, holding for a potential price increase could be an option, but it may not happen quickly given current trends.

Conclusion:

With 28 domestic sets sold at a rate of 2.8/day and stable prices, selling now is a reasonable strategy. Holding out may offer some upside, but it could take time unless supply starts to decrease more rapidly.

 

[Pseudoty]

I wonder if it’s because they aren’t selling it but giving it away that the new battery sticker regulation doesn’t apply. 

Edited October 2 by Pseudoty

[gmpirate]

maybe it's a percentage of retail packaging

[Captain_Obvious]

Hmm, and it has a metal stand...

https://www.lego.com/en-us/insiders/rewards

[Captain_Obvious]

Might be a good time to redeem a reward with your BDP purchase. You can add a minifigure or key chain to your BDP cart, and then redeem a reward without having to pay for shipping.

 

[LegoTriathlete]

Thx for the call out on this magnet, seems interesting and may get one myself.  That being said, someone seems optimistic on ebay... if this actually sells for anywhere close to this I may need to jump into this lego resell business myself!

[Pseudoty]

Things like this really irk me. I am calling tomorrow. 
 

 

Edited October 11 by Pseudoty

[Mr_Coat]

24 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Things like this really irk me. I am calling tomorrow. 
 

 

I just chatted with Support and they credited me back the 500 point difference on my one GWP purchase from this week. Not sure how far back they would be willing to go, but if it's within a week or two, they might!  Good luck!

[Pseudoty]

13 hours ago, Mr_Coat said:

I just chatted with Support and they credited me back the 500 point difference on my one GWP purchase from this week. Not sure how far back they would be willing to go, but if it's within a week or two, they might!  Good luck!

I sent an email this morning and got a response already:

We do understand , it is a pity indeed , nut fear no more we are here to the rescue 
it was my pleasure to add to your account the 2400 that you calculated plus 100 just as gift from LEGO lover to LEGO lover 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

14 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Things like this really irk me. I am calling tomorrow. 
 

 

how many points did it change by?  

[Pseudoty]

6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

how many points did it change by?  

they were 2700 then 2300 now 1800

[Mr_Coat]

50 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

they were 2700 then 2300 now 1800

How far back did you go? I "bought"  the first 2 in March and April for 2700 and 2300 respectively.

[Pseudoty]

24 minutes ago, Mr_Coat said:

How far back did you go? I "bought"  the first 2 in March and April for 2700 and 2300 respectively.

The same 3/1/24 and 4/1/24

[Mr_Coat]

6 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

The same 3/1/24 and 4/1/24

Interesting. Guess I'll go ask for a refund too. Thanks!

[Captain_Obvious]

40 minutes ago, Mr_Coat said:

Interesting. Guess I'll go ask for a refund too. Thanks!

It worked, got the refund. Thank you @Pseudoty

[Mr_Coat]

46 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

It worked, got the refund. Thank you @Pseudoty

Same! Thanks @Pseudoty

[BaconBits]

They made an exception for me as well going back into July. Got back 1500 points which is not bad for a few minutes online chat with them.

[mlc3423]

Made a 2 minute phone call and got 900 points reimbursed....Thanks Pseudoty

[BaconBits]

This is a new way of LEGO putting sets on sale for Insiders. They do not show up on the list of sale items. I am not sure if there is a way to filter them. I just happen to notice this one and a few of the Minecraft sets flagged liked this on LEGO.com.

[BaconBits]

3 minutes ago, BaconBits said:

This is a new way of LEGO putting sets on sale for Insiders. They do not show up on the list of sale items. I am not sure if there is a way to filter them. I just happen to notice this one and a few of the Minecraft sets flagged liked this on LEGO.com.

Ahh, they put them at the bottom of the LEGO Offers and Sale page: LEGO® Deals & Promo Codes | Official LEGO® Shop US or using this direct link to list them Member Offer | Official LEGO® Shop US.

[brickvoyeur]

Cerebro GWP with X-Men Mansion

Books Are My Passion GWP

Gasgano Podracer GWP at Walmart

https://www.legoraceroffer.com/

Edited October 18 by brickvoyeur