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LEGO VIP Insiders/GWP Discussion


Captain_Obvious

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2 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Deal, I will trade you for that NISB Pirates of Barracuda Bay that you want and throw in a Keychain? 

uh excuse me, the box will have a photo of yours truly on it... thats worth at least x2 keychains

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Posted (edited)
On 6/21/2024 at 7:57 PM, exciter1 said:

Some past GWPs are starting to payoff, like 40486 Mini Adidas and 40448 Vintage Car.

Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum's topic.

https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes (replace the * with a "k" 😬)

image.thumb.png.c88072a0f5258142120fa9911991313e.png

Edited by Captain_Obvious
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4 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum/topic.

https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes

 

I think that chart is pretty misleading. The annual growth rate is based on the Lego price that shows up on your receipt. Most of the growth is the initial jump. Looking at the two sets that were mentioned above, there has been virtually no growth:

 

car.jpg

adidas.jpg

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Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set.

image.png.e17c79970ff5c88704cec21ed27b6a1f.pngimage.png.db3aa3d862b8ca9866840aa6cd43cc26.png

Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? 

Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. 

Edited by brickvoyeur
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set.

image.png.e17c79970ff5c88704cec21ed27b6a1f.pngimage.png.db3aa3d862b8ca9866840aa6cd43cc26.png

Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? 

Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. 

I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value?

Edited by Captain_Obvious
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7 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value?

The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? The site is just preying on the hype and using them as revenue. 

CAGR is a fine tool if you're calculating your overall return across a portfolio... but not a great tool calculating an individual set. 

The site fails at basic data pulls as well, as it has the helmet listed at $305.05 on Amazon, but both listings are well over $400

image.png.354ded0f141276800738e9f67f1e12e2.png

Thankfully their fancy AI model that calculates price isn't actually setting the price. Otherwise we're in store for a more than 20% drop in price in the next 2 years.

image.png.c77b2bc94daaeaa42b2e344358716fa4.png

No need to defend it, it's not your site. It's just a flawed tool, using bad data, that can't follow basic arithmetic. Even the dipwads in the brickcucks facebook group mostly reject it and utilize it mostly for tracking their collections. Which is where it works out well for those who understand the market, as the site will tell you what is being hoarded. The helmet collection is the fith most popular subtheme!

image.png.8af514b599dc353be751c8f84ef6773d.png

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2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%?

Cool. I'm just trying to figure out how they got the 36% - F, the tooltip. It takes a lot of time to individually skew each set to rig pricing, so my logic is that they're using a formula for automation. So, my question, and I think yours was: how did they arrive at 36%? I don't trust their "words" because they say retirement date and that math didn't make sense, but the release date got me the 36%

Release: March 2020

Today's date: June 2024

n = 4.25 years

Ending Value = $290.53
Beginning Value = $59.99

CAGR = 36.3%

Sorry, the last post's math was a little rough -- was trying to do it in my head. Could still be very wrong, but I would like to get to the bottom of the 36%, thats it.

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1 hour ago, starwarsxpress said:

interesting the magnets come with a base and stand.  they are almost expensive as the ninjago sets

they also say limited where the ninjago sets dont

not sure what to think that's a lot of point for the three of them

Somebody buy one of those $20 magnets and let us all know why it’s better than the free ones you get from the plumber or dentist.

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Just now, Captain_Obvious said:

Haha, that has to be a mistake (that no one will be taking advantage of). The older ones are still showing limit 1.

I grabbed one of each of the two new ones. I didn't get a magnet but they do have a coin vibe going on. 

Do you have less than 4,600 points left because if you go to Rewards > Featured Rewards then you can get as many sets as your points will allow. However, if you go to Rewards > Collectables or Sets it is Limit 1. 

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12 hours ago, Captain_Obvious said:

Done.

so Captain my Captain its the equivalent of $52 to get a set of these 3 VIP magnets.  of course you have stud city showing it off on their stand and display on you tube and talking about how if they run out quickly it will go crazy like the coins did. I'm inclined to get all 3 and burn half my points (after I got the last two ninjago sets) but I made myself say I will only spend the vip points on free lego from now on.  what a situation.  what say you ?

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