scatttcat Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 2 hours ago, Pseudoty said: Deal, I will trade you for that NISB Pirates of Barracuda Bay that you want and throw in a Keychain? uh excuse me, the box will have a photo of yours truly on it... thats worth at least x2 keychains 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Brick Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) Redacted Edited June 24 by Billy Brick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 (edited) On 6/21/2024 at 7:57 PM, exciter1 said: Some past GWPs are starting to payoff, like 40486 Mini Adidas and 40448 Vintage Car. Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum's topic. https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes (replace the * with a "k" 😬) Edited June 24 by Captain_Obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickLover80 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 4 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said: Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum/topic. https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes I think that chart is pretty misleading. The annual growth rate is based on the Lego price that shows up on your receipt. Most of the growth is the initial jump. Looking at the two sets that were mentioned above, there has been virtually no growth: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickvoyeur Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 (edited) Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set. Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. Edited June 24 by brickvoyeur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 (edited) 2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said: Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set. Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value? Edited June 24 by Captain_Obvious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redghostx Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I like companies that are bad at math, they tend to pay well to fix things Yay LEGO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickvoyeur Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 7 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said: I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value? The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? The site is just preying on the hype and using them as revenue. CAGR is a fine tool if you're calculating your overall return across a portfolio... but not a great tool calculating an individual set. The site fails at basic data pulls as well, as it has the helmet listed at $305.05 on Amazon, but both listings are well over $400 Thankfully their fancy AI model that calculates price isn't actually setting the price. Otherwise we're in store for a more than 20% drop in price in the next 2 years. No need to defend it, it's not your site. It's just a flawed tool, using bad data, that can't follow basic arithmetic. Even the dipwads in the brickcucks facebook group mostly reject it and utilize it mostly for tracking their collections. Which is where it works out well for those who understand the market, as the site will tell you what is being hoarded. The helmet collection is the fith most popular subtheme! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said: The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? Cool. I'm just trying to figure out how they got the 36% - F, the tooltip. It takes a lot of time to individually skew each set to rig pricing, so my logic is that they're using a formula for automation. So, my question, and I think yours was: how did they arrive at 36%? I don't trust their "words" because they say retirement date and that math didn't make sense, but the release date got me the 36% Release: March 2020 Today's date: June 2024 n = 4.25 years Ending Value = $290.53 Beginning Value = $59.99 CAGR = 36.3% Sorry, the last post's math was a little rough -- was trying to do it in my head. Could still be very wrong, but I would like to get to the bottom of the 36%, thats it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Is the GWP Fireworks out yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmpirate Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 29 minutes ago, airhanny said: Is the GWP Fireworks out yet? hold on. let me go to lego.com and check . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 26 minutes ago, gmpirate said: hold on. let me go to lego.com and check . . . I checked not available. But several were sold already on eBay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 I see in FB LEGO groups, the Fireworks was sold around $60 but I don't see it available in stores or online. I don't know how they got this GWP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 On 6/21/2024 at 11:53 AM, Pseudoty said: VIP early access ends on the 23rd then while supplies last until the 30th so there is possibly some overlap. 😭😭😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceFan9 Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM 6 hours ago, Pseudoty said: 😭😭😭 Translation: Jules Verne has departed ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmpirate Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM 4 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said: Translation: Jules Verne has departed ... Plenty in stores Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zobel0022 Posted Friday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:58 PM Missed double promo by a day... fireworks live 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted Monday at 09:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 AM The last 2 Ninjago sets are available, Limit 100 each 🤪 Also some pricey magnets and few other new things. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starwarsxpress Posted Monday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:58 AM interesting the magnets come with a base and stand. they are almost expensive as the ninjago sets they also say limited where the ninjago sets dont not sure what to think that's a lot of point for the three of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Brick Posted Monday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:24 PM 1 hour ago, starwarsxpress said: interesting the magnets come with a base and stand. they are almost expensive as the ninjago sets they also say limited where the ninjago sets dont not sure what to think that's a lot of point for the three of them Somebody buy one of those $20 magnets and let us all know why it’s better than the free ones you get from the plumber or dentist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 02:31 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:31 PM 1 hour ago, Billy Brick said: Somebody buy one of those $20 magnets and let us all know why it’s better than the free ones you get from the plumber or dentist. Done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM 4 hours ago, Pseudoty said: Limit 100 each 🤪 Haha, that has to be a mistake (that no one will be taking advantage of). The older ones are still showing limit 1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted Monday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:44 PM Just now, Captain_Obvious said: Haha, that has to be a mistake (that no one will be taking advantage of). The older ones are still showing limit 1. I grabbed one of each of the two new ones. I didn't get a magnet but they do have a coin vibe going on. Do you have less than 4,600 points left because if you go to Rewards > Featured Rewards then you can get as many sets as your points will allow. However, if you go to Rewards > Collectables or Sets it is Limit 1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM This spread takes me back to the arcades of my childhood, filled with "games of chance" where you could win tickets for prizes. My poor dad would spend $100 just so we could leave with a toy valued at about $1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starwarsxpress Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM 12 hours ago, Captain_Obvious said: Done. so Captain my Captain its the equivalent of $52 to get a set of these 3 VIP magnets. of course you have stud city showing it off on their stand and display on you tube and talking about how if they run out quickly it will go crazy like the coins did. I'm inclined to get all 3 and burn half my points (after I got the last two ninjago sets) but I made myself say I will only spend the vip points on free lego from now on. what a situation. what say you ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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