scatttcat Posted Monday at 03:05 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:05 AM 2 hours ago, Pseudoty said: Deal, I will trade you for that NISB Pirates of Barracuda Bay that you want and throw in a Keychain? uh excuse me, the box will have a photo of yours truly on it... thats worth at least x2 keychains 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Brick Posted Monday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:38 AM (edited) Redacted Edited Monday at 03:40 AM by Billy Brick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 01:23 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:23 PM (edited) On 6/21/2024 at 7:57 PM, exciter1 said: Some past GWPs are starting to payoff, like 40486 Mini Adidas and 40448 Vintage Car. Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum's topic. https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes (replace the * with a "k" 😬) Edited Monday at 01:29 PM by Captain_Obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickLover80 Posted Monday at 01:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:33 PM 4 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said: Here's a good link to analyze the performance of all the GWPs, Insider Rewards, In-Store Promos, etc -- pretty much everything we discuss in this forum/topic. https://www.bric*economy.com/analysis-subthemes I think that chart is pretty misleading. The annual growth rate is based on the Lego price that shows up on your receipt. Most of the growth is the initial jump. Looking at the two sets that were mentioned above, there has been virtually no growth: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickvoyeur Posted Monday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:47 PM (edited) Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set. Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. Edited Monday at 02:49 PM by brickvoyeur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM (edited) 2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said: Hey look, it's every "influencers" favorite set. Maybe I'm not smart enough... but since it says growth is calculated like this... how is a set that retired less than 3 years ago, selling nearly 500% the RRP, only having annual growth of 36%? Almost like that entire website is built on a hype model made to make you click links for affiliate kickbacks. I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value? Edited Monday at 04:58 PM by Captain_Obvious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redghostx Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM I like companies that are bad at math, they tend to pay well to fix things Yay LEGO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickvoyeur Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM 7 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said: I believe they’re using the compounded annual growth rate formula, but it looks like they rounded it up to 5 years instead of the actual 4.11 years since the retail price release to today’s value? The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? The site is just preying on the hype and using them as revenue. CAGR is a fine tool if you're calculating your overall return across a portfolio... but not a great tool calculating an individual set. The site fails at basic data pulls as well, as it has the helmet listed at $305.05 on Amazon, but both listings are well over $400 Thankfully their fancy AI model that calculates price isn't actually setting the price. Otherwise we're in store for a more than 20% drop in price in the next 2 years. No need to defend it, it's not your site. It's just a flawed tool, using bad data, that can't follow basic arithmetic. Even the dipwads in the brickcucks facebook group mostly reject it and utilize it mostly for tracking their collections. Which is where it works out well for those who understand the market, as the site will tell you what is being hoarded. The helmet collection is the fith most popular subtheme! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Obvious Posted Monday at 07:47 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:47 PM 2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said: The tooltip says it goes from the date of retirement. So even rounding up it would be 3 years. Growth listed at 384% but annual growth at 36%? Cool. I'm just trying to figure out how they got the 36% - F, the tooltip. It takes a lot of time to individually skew each set to rig pricing, so my logic is that they're using a formula for automation. So, my question, and I think yours was: how did they arrive at 36%? I don't trust their "words" because they say retirement date and that math didn't make sense, but the release date got me the 36% Release: March 2020 Today's date: June 2024 n = 4.25 years Ending Value = $290.53 Beginning Value = $59.99 CAGR = 36.3% Sorry, the last post's math was a little rough -- was trying to do it in my head. Could still be very wrong, but I would like to get to the bottom of the 36%, thats it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted Wednesday at 01:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:09 AM Is the GWP Fireworks out yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmpirate Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM 29 minutes ago, airhanny said: Is the GWP Fireworks out yet? hold on. let me go to lego.com and check . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM 26 minutes ago, gmpirate said: hold on. let me go to lego.com and check . . . I checked not available. But several were sold already on eBay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airhanny Posted Wednesday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:57 PM I see in FB LEGO groups, the Fireworks was sold around $60 but I don't see it available in stores or online. I don't know how they got this GWP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted Thursday at 09:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:54 AM On 6/21/2024 at 11:53 AM, Pseudoty said: VIP early access ends on the 23rd then while supplies last until the 30th so there is possibly some overlap. 😭😭😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceFan9 Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM 6 hours ago, Pseudoty said: 😭😭😭 Translation: Jules Verne has departed ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmpirate Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM 4 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said: Translation: Jules Verne has departed ... Plenty in stores Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zobel0022 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Missed double promo by a day... fireworks live 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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