Talking Stocks in 2021

[jaisonline]

Note: Invest at your own risk. Do you own homework before buying / selling. Don’t assume advice posted here is financially sound.

Wanted to create an investment thread about stocks and how market conditions can impact those investments.

Thought about creating one in 2020 but with COVID & other items going on, I didn’t. Instead, I posted in a similar thread on another non-investing web site.
 
Posts can include topics relating to individual securities : stocks, bonds, options, indices, & ETFs.
Sharing informative links encourage.  
Please DON’T get political or posts will be removed. 

[TANV]

Oooh, I'm surprised we didn't have one.

I recommend investing in S&P 500 Index Funds this coming year. I've had one for the past year and it's grown decently. In 10 years, it should be even better.

[jaisonline]

1 hour ago, TANV said:

Oooh, I'm surprised we didn't have one.

I recommend investing in S&P 500 Index Funds this coming year. I've had one for the past year and it's grown decently. In 10 years, it should be even better.

E.g. if someone invested $100 per month in Nasdaq composite ETF (QQQ) starting Jan 2010, it was worth $42,000 last Fall.  Not bad for about $11,800 total invested.

Now with Tesla in the S&P 500 (SPY), we should see more volatility in it. 

[joneyyy1981]

in huge with Boeing @ 120ish, back to 300 within a year.

[jaisonline]

I’m long in PLTR, DKNG, DIS, AMZN, FDX, UPS, APPL, & TSLA.  Recently (as in 2 months) picked up DMYD, BFT, & NCLH.  Not committed on those yet. Also, bought a little VXX last week for a short term hold on-case things go crazy.  Will be selling that soon. 
 

Also bought SNOW $300 May 21 2021 puts last month because of insider shares being unlocked.  

[legoray01]

DIS, F, MGM, BAC, GLW all purchased in March/April of last year.  New money goes to F, KIM and CMA on a quarterly basis in the second half of the year.  Starting to look for Dividend pays with KIM and CMA while F is a long term purchase I add to occasionally with believe that the div will be restored.     This is me - your investment needs and strategy are different and this is play around cash.  My bigger money (retirement)  is in target aged funds and index mutual funds and I do not touch those funds for individual stock purchase.  I am fifty plus so I am starting to look at retirement 10 to 12 years from now. 

I am starting to look for div pays of solid stocks I know that pay 3% plus because I want that to supplement retirement income in a decade plus.  I work with an advisor on my Mom's portfolio and steal some ideas from them for me.   

I work for an S and P 500 listed company and get regular stock purchases and allocations so I make sure i pull those funds when they mature and invest in other things to diversify.  My employer is a tech company and represents 30-40% of my net wealth in a single stock.  This is why my individual stocks listed are not tech stocks.  My exposure is way too high to tech between my employer and index funds so my strategy is to put cash in other sectors.  As I said, my strategy is based on my needs.,

[Voltron]

I think there should be a warning / sticky just to remind people to please not to take investment advice from a random people on the Internet, as most people only talk about the wins and never the losses.

Need to remember that technically can't give out investment advice unless you are regulated (FCA in UK). I've seen too many horror stories of people going all in on a single stock / share just because they heard of the "mad gainz" from someone on FB / insta etc.

Keep it slow and steady, have a emergency fund of 3 to 6 months savings, invest only what you can afford to lose, and if something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

 

 

[jaisonline]

good point. Don’t assume anything.

I think there should be a warning / sticky just to remind people to please not to take investment advice from a random people on the Internet, as most people only talk about the wins and never the losses.
 

[SpaceFan9]

29 minutes ago, Voltron said:

I think there should be a warning / sticky just to remind people to please not to take investment advice from a random people on the Internet, as most people only talk about the wins and never the losses.

 

Wait, isn't the main mission of this forum to spread investing advice from/to random people on the internet?  I'm confused. ;-) 

[jaisonline]

Wait, isn't the main mission of this forum to spread investing advice from/to random people on the internet?  I'm confused. ;-) 

Not really for stock investing. Go on YouTube or Twitter. You will see disclaimers everywhere.

It’s like listening to a guy stating he bought 10,000 Worriz Fire Bikes because he heard a good tip. Some idiot might listen & lose Little Timmy’s college fund.

[NIevo]

1 minute ago, jaisonline said:

Not really for stock investing. Go on YouTube or Twitter. You will see disclaimers everywhere.

It’s like listening to a guy stating he bought 10,000 Worriz Speeders because he heard a good tip. Some idiot might listen & lose Little Timmy’s college fund.

 

Yes, but did he get them for $.50?  Money can be made on ALMOST anything if you buy in right😁

My biggest Polybag mistake is almost 500 Metalbeards😥  At least buy-in was less then $1.

AAPL is always a good play.  Most of the big retailers with online market like TGT and WMT are pretty safe for a decent gain/div. stock.  Not big on any oil right now as you have no idea what the Gov. is going to do now.  Weed stocks are hot as are most alternative power car stocks.  ACB, CRON and SNDL for weed and NIO, PLUG and maybe LI for cars.  Tesla is beyond insane for stock price/valuation.

Dividend stocks are PFE, MRO, KO, OHI and ABBV.

Gun stocks are also hot but have to keep an eye on them for who knows what out of new Gov., OLN is up over 100% for me in the last 7-8 months.

Buyout/rumor/potential plays are MVIS and ZOM right now.

As others have said do your research.

[lodibricks]

I started buying stock in the last 2 years, and it's definitely a different way of thinking than typical LEGO investing. With LEGO, I'd tell myself I'd never pay MSRP for a set after snagging some at 50%-70% off. With that thinking, I can't get myself to buy more shares seeing the prices way up from previous purchases. Example, I had bought some NIO at $1.70 in Nov '19. Buying a share at $54 now would really sting, even if I believe it'll go higher. Then again, seeing most of our Daily Deals posts lately are retiring or TOOS sets at MSRP, maybe it's not too different.

[dennugsmello]

I'm on another investment train then most. Pulled most of my money from the stock market in December. My picks are"

Physical Gold, Silver, and brass. 

 

[freakchem]

I would like to mention ARK ETF as a relative safe but aggressive option. 

[NIevo]

4 minutes ago, dennugsmello said:

I'm on another investment train then most. Pulled most of my money from the stock market in December. My picks are"

Physical Gold, Silver, and brass. 

 

 

Don't forget lead😉

[spener90]

2 minutes ago, freakchem said:

I would like to mention ARK ETF as a relative safe but aggressive option. 

Cathie Wood is great!

[jaisonline]

I would like to mention ARK ETF as a relative safe but aggressive option. 

You can sign up for daily emails of their trades.

https://ark-funds.com/trade-notifications

I use an app that tracks Ark buys / sells & %s history in more detail. Called “Lucid Ark ETF” in the Apple App Store.

[TheBrickClique]

2 hours ago, dennugsmello said:

I'm on another investment train then most. Pulled most of my money from the stock market in December. My picks are"

Physical Gold, Silver, and brass. 

 

Ditto.  Although I just moved a majority chunk of my 401k into a stable-value (cash equivalent) fund right before Christmas and invested in physical plastic.

Reasoning:

1) Market did too well in 2020 given the Covid impact.  Why?  I think maybe folks dumped their discretionary income into the market in March and then FOMO took over when the market started heading up.  I don't see any reason why the market should be at all-new highs.

2) Folks who invested in 2020 didn't sell because they didn't want to pay short-term gains.  I think when March 2021 comes around, those one-year windows will cause a lot of people to consider cashing out their long-term gains.

3) Folks who have been putting off vacations or big-ticket purchases will be looking to pull money out in 2021 to pay for those items.

4) Covid impacts are far from certain.  We don't know how effective the vaccine will be on the new strands.  How much longer folks will be stuck at home.  Etc...

I left about a third of my 401k in the market just in case.  I'll probably reinvest in the summer if the market has held strong or sooner if it has a correction before then.

Outside my retirement, I did well with my personal account last year.  I left a little in a couple of mutual funds, but cashed out most of my profits and sent Uncle Sam his share of the short-term gains.  Much of the gains went into the stable LEGO fund.  Ironically, I told myself a year ago I should get out of the LEGO business and just sell my remaining stock -- most of the profits from the 2019 holidays went into my stock account.  Now the stock market pushed me back in and I acquired more LEGO inventory in 2020 than all of the years from 2013 when I started down this path.

 

3 hours ago, lodibricks said:

I started buying stock in the last 2 years, and it's definitely a different way of thinking than typical LEGO investing. With LEGO, I'd tell myself I'd never pay MSRP for a set after snagging some at 50%-70% off. With that thinking, I can't get myself to buy more shares seeing the prices way up from previous purchases. Example, I had bought some NIO at $1.70 in Nov '19. Buying a share at $54 now would really sting, even if I believe it'll go higher. Then again, seeing most of our Daily Deals posts lately are retiring or TOOS sets at MSRP, maybe it's not too different.

Free investment advice:  Don't buy "retiring" stocks

[jaisonline]

NIO has a share unlock coming up. Forget the exact details as I never bought it. People should see a nice dip.

—-
SnowFlake has decreased like crazy since last month because it’s share unlocking. DraftKings went from the $60s to $34 last Oct. Knowing when recently gone public companies have restricted share unlocks can be profitable.
——
Here’s a post from another web site.

I know many of us trade stocks using insider share unlocking info. E.g. SNOW

In my DKNG brokerage news feed, I saw a recap about the impact share unlocking had on that stock starting early Oct.

Well it’s nothing new, it’s still nice quick read especially for newer investors. I did follow the share lock info for Oct & was lucky enough to make some nice profit buying, selling , rinse, & repeat. Basically traded my position 3x. Have the same amount of shares now that I started with on Oct. 1.
Now the option strategy would have been more profitable but even as a seasoned investor, I didn’t go that route. Just used stop sell limits instead. Next time & w/ like SNOW, I will continue going to the options route. PLTR Is the next interesting one now with 80% being unlocked 3 days after the next earnings call announcement but I wonder if we will be seeing as much selling in this stock as the others. PLTR has their little cult following & unlock some IPOs & Direct Listings, they didn’t go public with only 10% of total shares. PLTR went with 20%.


“Benzinga's PreMarket Prep airs every morning from 8-9 a.m. ET. During that fast-paced, highly informative hour, traders and investors tune in to get the major news of the day, the catalysts behind those moves and the corresponding price action for the upcoming session.

On any given day, the show will cover at least 20 stocks determined by co-hosts Joel Elconin and Dennis **** along with producer Spencer Israel.

There are many different catalysts that can move issues higher or lower. Some are obvious like earnings reports and rating changes, but some others are not as widely followed. For example, price action in an issue ahead of the day of a lock-up expiration.

With that being said. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is the PreMarket Prep Stock Of The Day.

What Does A Lock-Up Expiration Mean? An IPO lock-up period is the term used to define a period of time after a company has gone public when major shareholders are prohibited from selling their shares. Lock-up periods usually last between 90 to 180 days and may vary for different types of shareholders. Once the lock-up period ends, most trading restrictions are removed.

Typical Price Action Ahead Of Lock-Up Date: Some savvy investors track the lock-up expiration dates for all of the current IPOs and may take a short position ahead of the actual date in anticipation of large blocks of stock being for sale. Of course, there is no guarantee that any insider selling at all, but that does not necessarily delegitimize the point of the essence of the strategy.

Another consideration that the preemptive sellers take into account is the previous price action ahead of the actual date. For example, if an issue has been in a prolonged downtrend, it is less likely that insiders will want to unload shares at a discount to its former price.

Recent Price Action: Since bottoming on Oct. 30, 2020, at $34.90, DraftKings embarked on a $20 rally and finally peaked Dec. 18 at $55.98. After a few days of consolidation in the $52-$54 area, it had a significant down day on Dec. 28, falling from $52.11 to $48.98 on no news.

It's impossible to determine if the retreat was just some good ole profit-taking or preemptive sellers ahead shorting the issue ahead of the lock-up expiration date.

Continuation Move Lower Into Expiration: Interestingly, the issue drifted lower right into Tuesday's lock-up expiration. In fact, the issue reached its lowest level since its late December peak.

After a lower open, it just breached Monday's low ($44.50) hitting $44.10 and sharply reversed course and ended the session at higher by nearly $3 at $47.50 and tacked on another $4 earlier today when it peaked at $51.80 and has sharply reversed course. As of 1 p.m. ET, it has retreated to the $49 area.

Therefore, late sellers of the strategy that did cover early in Tuesday's session found themselves scrambling to cover in a rising market.

PreMarket Prep Take On This Strategy: The producer of the show explained the scenario for DraftKings and cautioned that 'there is no guarantee that there is going to be large sellers on the actual date."

Co-host Dennis **** discussed the 'anticipatory selling strategy."

"Sellers that were waiting for a lot of follow-through beyond Monday's low ($44,50) got the rugged pulled out from under them as the issue rallied for the remainder of the session," he said.”

Skip to 31:37

[jaisonline]

Here’s interesting chart showing bear and bull markets with durations. I’m still shocked the 2020 bear market really only lasted 1 month. Not enough time for a true correction. Further reflects how Wall St doesn’t reflect Main St.




As of late last month, there was $726B in margin debt (assume most of that are from retail investors). Once those margin calls trigger, watch out. Will be like 1999-2000 all over again.

[NIevo]

53 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

Here’s interesting chart showing bear and bull markets with durations. I’m still shocked the 2020 bear market really only lasted 1 month. Not enough time for a true correction. Further reflects how Wall St doesn’t reflect Main St.




As of late last month, there was $726B in margin debt (assume most of that are from retail investors). Once those margin calls trigger, watch out. Will be like 1999-2000 all over again.

The stock market in general but especially stocks like Tesla have made absolutely no sense at all this year.  Kinda like the housing market.

[spener90]

1 minute ago, NIevo said:

The stock market in general but especially stocks like Tesla have made absolutely no sense at all this year.  Kinda like the housing market.

I remember hearing earlier this year that a lot of people that were big gamblers that would go to Vegas funneled a lot of money into Tesla. Definitely a big risk to invest in (personally sold mine). Don't get me wrong about the company, I have driven the 3 and the Y and they are fantastic!

[NIevo]

1 minute ago, spener90 said:

I remember hearing earlier this year that a lot of people that were big gamblers that would go to Vegas funneled a lot of money into Tesla. Definitely a big risk to invest in (personally sold mine). Don't get me wrong about the company, I have driven the 3 and the Y and they are fantastic!

Yep, nothing wrong with what they make.  The valuation of what they make is loony though.  People placing an astronomical amount of money on bets that they keep expanding and growing.

[MarleyMoose]

Nintendo and T-Mobile have been my heavy lifters. My unit cost of Nintendo is $38.17. It closed at 79.01 today. My unit cost of T-Mobile is $69.09. It closed today at 133.19. Even my mutual fund is up 60%.

[donbee]

Let me know when the market is crashing and everybody is selling.