Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sozial said: Only a few but those who are like to tell. Look at the comments section of about ANY discussion of ANY channel our outlet. These are not "a few". This rupture goes right through the middle of the brick community.
Sozial Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Frank Brickowski said: So, in your opinion a nation-wide (80 million people, one of the world's largest economies) PR disaster for the world's most popular company is not worth mentioning, alright. I have nothing invested in any brand except LEGO as per my investement portfolio. I don't buy any sets for building because I'm not even a brick fan. Happy now? 110k people bought the newspaper in Q4/2020 each day. It is one of the bigger newspapers, but its mostly read in Berlin. And its an online article, so no solid information about the viewers. But ye Lego is going down, once again! I even heard some moms on the street talking about it. LOL. As long as lego is not causing cancer or uses very unethic work conditions, nothing will change.
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, KShine said: Apparently, the Germans are really really angry with LEGO. Germany is the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China, and Japan. If that's something you don't care about as an investor, maybe you should not be an investor in the first place.
Darth_Raichu Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: Look at the comments section of about ANY discussion of ANY channel our outlet. These are not "a few". This rupture goes right through the middle of the brick community. 1 minute ago, Frank Brickowski said: Germany is the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China, and Japan. If that's something you don't care about as an investor, maybe you should not be an investor in the first place. Let me put it this way, I will be worry when you stop investing in LEGO, not before. 2
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Sozial said: 110k people bought the newspaper in Q4/2020 each day. It is one of the bigger newspapers, but its mostly read in Berlin. And its an online article, so no solid information about the viewers. You're right about the unknown amount of views for the article. Yet, the article was published yesterday already and it's "Most Read No. 1" (teaser on the very home page) as of today: Edited February 22, 2021 by Frank Brickowski
Fcbarcelona101 Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: Germany is the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China, and Japan. If that's something you don't care about as an investor, maybe you should not be an investor in the first place. I think that in the context of LEGO investing it really isn’t relevant unless: 1- You are located in Germany 2- A large enough portion of your sales are to Germany 3- You believe this will translate into a worldwide trend and has true staying power (I.e is not just a temporary situation that will be forgotten in time) 2
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: Let me put it this way, I will be worry when you stop investing in LEGO, not before. As I said before: This is not about quitting right now. It's about being aware of changes in the market that might require actions in the future.
Sozial Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: You're right about the unknown amount of views for the article. Yet, the article was published yesterday already and it "Most Read No. 1" (teaser on the very home page) as of today: Ye that could be 10 or 100 or xxxx000, all speculation. I have to admit, even If I got noone in my social circle talking (moms and dads in their best age to spend stupid money for kids toys) about the "rupture going through the middle of the brick community" I decided to quit investing. Take that lego! Thanks a lot for illuminating me Frank. I now even feel a little bit angry!
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Fcbarcelona101 said: I think that in the context of LEGO investing it really isn’t relevant unless: 3- You believe this will translate into a worldwide trend and has true staying power (I.e is not just a temporary situation that will be forgotten in time) This is what I'm talking about all the time. How can you know it will NOT translate to other markets? And even if it does not (immediately), it could well have effects on the whole company you should be able to react to as an investor. Just like the changes LEGO's focus shift to the Chinese market is about to bring. Edited February 22, 2021 by Frank Brickowski
Fcbarcelona101 Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: This is what I'm talking about all the time. How can you know it will NOT translate to other markets? And even if it does not (immediately), it could well have effects on the whole company you should be able to react to as an investor. Just like the changes LEGO's focus shift to the Chinese market is about to bring. Obviously I don’t really know, I just think it won’t have a material impact in the US. But I will agree with you that It is good to know what’s out there regardless. 1
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Sozial said: Ye that could be 10 or 100 or xxxx000, all speculation. Yeah, all speculation. Could also be 1 million or 10 million. Funny how your "all speculation - nothing happening" approach is always working in FAVOR of investing only. A sound analysis of threats and opportunities should always cover all directions, not only the one you like. Edited February 22, 2021 by Frank Brickowski
KShine Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: Germany is the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China, and Japan. If that's something you don't care about as an investor, maybe you should not be an investor in the first place. People have been calling for the end of days for a very long time (for too many reasons to count). I don't think the "Lots Of Germans Are Angry" reason even gets into the top 10 list. 2
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: Let me put it this way, I will be worry when you stop investing in LEGO, not before. If you do actually care about my opinion, why don't you let it go live without any beforehand manual approval?
$20 on joe vs dan Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 51 minutes ago, KShine said: Apparently, the Germans are really really angry with LEGO. love this scene and how it summed up the character...brings up the issue: he really should have cared because his actions directly impacts the life of an innocent man...it's like soldiers "just following orders"..not a black and white issue by far...
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, KShine said: People have been calling for the end of days for a very long time (for too many reasons to count). I don't think the "Lots Of Germans Are Angry" reason even gets into the top 10 list. Yeah, "being angry" sounds funny. "Not buying LEGO anymore" not so much.
$20 on joe vs dan Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 there has been knock-offs threatening luxury brands since Louie first met Vitton a $5K+ "hand bag" PULease...LEGO has nothing to worry about 1
KShine Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: love this scene and how it summed up the character...brings up the issue: he really should have cared because his actions directly impacts the life of an innocent man...it's like soldiers "just following orders"..not a black and white issue by far... He was doing his job - You can't have people arbitrarily making decisions about things, society need rules.
Sozial Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: Yeah, all speculation. Could also be 1 million or 10 million. Funny how your "all speculation - nothing happening" approach is always working in FAVOR of investing only. A sound analysis of threats and opportunities should always cover all directions, not only the one you like. I guess its time for: you are right. 15 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: Yeah, "being angry" sounds funny. "Not buying LEGO anymore" not so much. Yes you are right. 16 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: If you do actually care about my opinion, why don't you let it go live without any beforehand manual approval? Yes you are right. 30 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said: This is what I'm talking about all the time. How can you know it will NOT translate to other markets? And even if it does not (immediately), it could well have effects on the whole company you should be able to react to as an investor. Just like the changes LEGO's focus shift to the Chinese market is about to bring. Yes you are right. 1
$20 on joe vs dan Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, KShine said: He was doing his job - You can't have people arbitrarily making decisions about things, society need rules. He was a leader in a public servant role...his job description should require good decision making skills...cannot make good decisions without information....how the movie develops basically supports my point. I get that you can't have , say a cop or soldier always questioning orders...but there is always an obligation to learn teh truth
BrickLover80 Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: there has been knock-offs threatening luxury brands since Louie first met Vitton a $5K+ "hand bag" PULease...LEGO has nothing to worry about I agree in the short term. Long term, who knows. But most (all?) of us have don't have that long of a hold period. My reading of the situation is as follows: 1. Lego is growing in the adult market and is earning a lot of money there, so that's the market they are trying to protect in the fight with BB. 2. In the adult market, most of their sets are quite easy to build and are not what some of the more serious builders want. They are frustrated and are looking at alternatives. I think that group is not that big but very vocal. The usual internet comment section. 3. In Germany, Lego is reacting quite clumsily to that situation. Instead of ignoring the comment section and small producers and throwing the serious builders a few bones with more challenging builds, they are fighting in court. Which never looks good. But if Lego learns from that mistake, nothing will come from it. If not, they'll loose market share in a lucrative market and it might affect our returns. But that's not imminent at all, so as an investor, I'm not sweating it. In principle, the market is big enough to have Lego as the big name selling relatively simple (licensed) adult sets and BB and co selling more advanced builds. It would eat into Lego's profits but not in a way to destroy the company (or our chances to make money of the right sets). If I were a Lego owner, what would worry me more is that in the kids market their product isn't that good any more. Of course, that's just my opinion, but I think plenty of parents agree. Otherwise why would they buy an old police station for almost double MSRP when a new one is available? And there are plenty of other examples. Of course, this is good for us as resellers but it will kill the lucrative adult market in 20-30 years when today's kids won't buy $200 sets (or $50 sets for their kids). 2
Frank Brickowski Posted February 22, 2021 Author Posted February 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, Sozial said: I guess its time for: you are right. Yes you are right. Yes you are right. Yes you are right. Well, if you actually HAD arguments, you would probably post them. So I guess you don't have them. No need to try and "save your honor" by switching to irony though.
$20 on joe vs dan Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 45 minutes ago, BrickLover80 said: 2. In the adult market, most of their sets are quite easy to build and are not what some of the more serious builders want. They are frustrated and are looking at alternatives. I think that group is not that big but very vocal. The usual internet comment section. I disagree w/ this statement. AfoLs want more adult themed sets (not restrained by LEGO's sensibilities)...not more challenging sets to build. These alternative brick companies are not making sets that are harder to build....at least that doesn't seem to be their goal from the offerings I have seen.
BrickLover80 Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: I disagree w/ this statement. AfoLs want more adult themed sets (not restrained by LEGO's sensibilities)...not more challenging sets to build. These alternative brick companies are not making sets that are harder to build....at least that doesn't seem to be their goal from the offerings I have seen. I think you may have misunderstood me. I agree most AfoLs want relatively easy builds. But there is a group who wants a challenge. They are the ones complaining and making noise. But that's not the majority of the market. Hence, I'm thinking Lego, Cobi, BB etc could coexist with Lego being the highest quality, easy to build option (most of the market) and the others serving their niches. Of course, Legos designs are a different story (see medival blacksmith).
KShine Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Frank Brickowski said: Well, if you actually HAD arguments, you would probably post them. So I guess you don't have them. It is hard to argue/debate about a problem that doesn't really exist, and likely won't ever exist. What horrors do you honestly believe are going to happen? Even in your worst case scenario - if/when the reselling environment does change, resellers will simply change their selling strategies, or just stop selling LEGO.
Darth_Raichu Posted February 22, 2021 Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Frank Brickowski said: Well, if you actually HAD arguments, you would probably post them. So I guess you don't have them. No need to try and "save your honor" by switching to irony though. Again, why should I who live far away from Germany should worry about it, when you who live there still invest in LEGO like nothing happens? This alone suggests this is actually not that big of a deal.
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