Which LotR sets do you think will appreciate the most?

[Alcarin]

So as the thread suggest, I would love your vote on which set do you think it will appreciate the most and wil lget best CAGR or annual growth. I personally think 1. Helms Deep (because it is castle type) 2. Orc Forge (Exclusive and Orthanc is being released) 3. Mines of Moria (granted we do not get armored trolls and another Boromir and possibly Balrog*** (hopefully))

[Veegs]

I voted for Helm's Deep, but perhaps, just in terms of % growth, the Orc Forge might win the day.

[Huskers1236]

I agree in that I also think Helm's Deep and Orc Forge will do well. I really don't think the Orthanc set will have much effect on Orc Forge though as they aren't really compatible unless you are one heck of a MOC'er.

[Grolim]

Probably Helms Deep followed by Orc Forge. Then Uruk-hai army. The others will depend on if their respective minifigures remain exclusive.

[pickleboy]

Percentage wise I think it will be Gandalf arrives...but $$ wise I think it will be Helm's deep.

[TheDarkness]

I look at the sets and think they all have potential sleeper value. Helm's Deep as a larger castle type setting, but also having a couple of unique figures. The Mines of Moria with the orcs, Troll and Boromir. Uruk Army for battlepacks (expensive as they are) Orc Forge for the orcs as well as hand printed design Gandalf Arrives for the small cheap set yet you get 2 minifigs and a horse. Dollar wise I would expect it to be Helm's Deep. However, who knows what other Castle style Hobbit sets will be out in the future, or the Castle line itself. Are the minifigs enough to keep pushing this price up? I am not sure. I really wish the armour had the white hand on it. With predictions of it becoming EOL this year though it will be interesting to see. I have 2 of these for my own building purposes, the rest I will be hanging onto. The Mines or Moria was overpriced to begin with, but with priced reductions across store it becomes a bit more realistic IMO. $120 bucks for it here, way overpriced. But as we are seeing with large molded figures, the uniqueness of having cave troll in the set blows the cost up. If no other LOTR sets are released with a genuine Troll (Hobbit included, and the Goblin King does not count) then this could definitely soar. The Uruk Army is a mixture pack really. Could go either way really. Really depends on the qualiy of the orcs put out in future sets. The Orc Forge is definitely interesting. As this set is rather scarce already I think will be prove to be quite a little earner. The amount of minifigs for the set is rather slim, but the light brick and white hand armour kind of help with that. Gandalf Arrives is a nice little set. How well it will do will utterly depend on how many future LOTR sets are put out, but personally I do not think it will do much. You would expect the majority would have either a Frodo or Gandalf minifig. Gandalf will also be in a fair few Hobbit sets, and both had polybags. If they do not change the design at all, then there will be an oversaturation of the two characters which may hinder it. Something not mentioned here is the Weathertop set. Similar to Mines of Moria, in that I thought it was overpriced, but picking it up cheap helped. Again how this goes in the future will depend on what future LOTR sets they put out, but currently being the only set with the Ringwraiths in it pushes things. The set is also nicely designed and definitely is a has a compact, displayable design. I would also keep an eye on the sets with Gollum in it, Shelob Attacks and Riddles for the Ring. I may be incorrect but I do not believe he was released in a polybag. It is highly questionable how much more of a role he plays in the next two Hobbit Movies (yes I have read all the books, appendices, etc etc) and if they do not release him in another LOTR set then this may be the last we see of the character in Lego form. I believe the majority of sets in this line will see a nice little pickup once they have been discontinued. But honestly who knows how the secondary market will react to it. Personally I will be holding on to copies of all of them bar Gandalf Arrives.

[Snowcrash]

I don't think you can go wrong with these sets. The popularity of this franchise is immense, and with 2 more movies set to be released there's going to be tremendous demand for all of these sets once they're retired. As for which ones will perform the best, much will depend on what Lego releases over the next 2 years. Right now I'd guess Helms Deep will do the best as its the largest set, though if you manage to somehow grab some forges at a substantial discount they might do better percentage wise. On the other hand if a current or future set ends up being the sole source of a key figure or monster, such as the troll in moria, then all bets are off as to future performance.

[adewar]

1. Barrel Escape 2. Mines of Moria 3. Unexpected Gathering Just my 2c

[CNH1974]

Percentage wise I think it will be Gandalf arrives...but $$ wise I think it will be Helm's deep.

I agree. Gandalf arrives only needs to appreciate by

[BuckeyeFanDan]

Of LOTR/Hobbit sets that are known and confirmed as of now, I think the Pirate Ship Ambush coming out this summer will eventually outdo them all.

[Grolim]

Of LOTR/Hobbit sets that are known and confirmed as of now, I think the Pirate Ship Ambush coming out this summer will eventually outdo them all.

That could very well turn out to be true. I like the look of Black Gate as well. Also, if we are going to start bringing in the hobbit sets as well, then I think 79003 Unexpected Gathering (Bag End) will be a winner.

[sschmotz]

I don't follow LOTR prices but I'm getting interested in them. Is the Helm Deep fire $120 an ok price at TRU B&M store? I want to do the online price of $130 with $20 off but don't think they'll let me.

[redeemed763]

You shouldn't have a problem finding it cheaper than $120, right now it is $116 on amazon, and that doesn't have sales tax for most, unlike your B&M store.

[Blackjack]

Helms Deep and Orc Forge because of the price and exclusivity.

[spener90]

% wise, Gandalf arrives. I think the sets with Gandalf the Gray will be nice, because there will be more made with Gandalf the White. I think that Helm's Deep will be a big winner. I just built this 2 days ago, and I am very impressed. I was skeptical at first, I didn't know how it would display, or if it would be to kiddish. It does the movie and theme justice. I see Gandalf arrives hitting 30, I see Helm's Deep pulling the same % and hitting 300 eventually. Of course I will likely be off (I'm hoping I underestimate both of these).

[redeemed763]

Gandalf arrives is such a tiny set though, it may do fine the profits are just so small for it. The orc forge is a fairly rare set so it could do quite well, as will Helm's Deep, I just wish it came with some elvin arches and soldiers from Rohan and not just the heros.

[spener90]

Gandalf arrives is such a tiny set though, it may do fine the profits are just so small for it. The orc forge is a fairly rare set so it could do quite well, as will Helm's Deep, I just wish it came with some elvin arches and soldiers from Rohan and not just the heros.

I agree. I think if someone gave me 130 to buy on either helms deep or gandalf arrives, I would go with Helm's Deep. Largely because of shipping costs. Each Gandalf arrives has to be shipped separately, while the Helm's Deep is a simple ship. I think this goes to the whole diversify idea though. You can never 100% predict what sets will do great and which ones will flop. I wish they made a more readily accessible battle pack with LOTR soldiers in it, like they do with Star Wars.

[stephen_rockefeller]

I don't follow LOTR or the sets but I'm gonna say the biggest set will be the best performer in the secondary market. (Whichever one that is)

[Rich B]

I don't follow LOTR or the sets but I'm gonna say the biggest set will be the best performer in the secondary market. (Whichever one that is)

Helms Deep is the set you are talking about

[stephen_rockefeller]

Sounds good....I will to with that one.

[Blackjack]

The Mirkwood Elf Guard should do well because it is a Toys R Us exclusive. :)

[Rich B]

While I think Helms Deep will make you the most money off of one single set, the best appreciation from retail will probably be The Mirkwood Elf Guard which looks to have come and gone EOL, or just about EOL extremely quick and already selling double over retail on ebay. It will take much longer for Helms Deep to sell double over retail, but it will be much easier to sell 1 Helms Deep compared to a bunch of Mirkwood Elf Guard's.

[Alcarin]

Ok As a LOTR fan since a kid I was obviously thrilled about LEGO LOTR (both game and sets) and I would like to open a nice discussion about LOTR investing. I would like if everyone who likes the sets and wish to devote some time to write why each set could do good and at what price do you consider them purchase material for investing

Remember LOTR only here. You can also include new sets incoming in June since we saw the pictures.

NOTE: The predictions price range is US-EU price range since our initials started higher and import taxes etc.

NOTE: All my predictions are for 1-1,5 years AFTER the set officially goes EOL.

9469-1: Gandalf Arrives

I believe it will stop at double retail within 1 year after EOL, but will probably not climb much more, It is an iconic set of introducing Gandalf in the movies but that is about it.

Predictions: Stopping at about 20-25$

9470-1: Shelob Attacks

I think this is worth getting, it is 99.9% the only Shelob we will ever see, it is currently exclusive Sam, which we are likely to see if 3rd line of sets come out. If you can get it below retail (25% off) then I think this might do very well in MISB condition.

Predictions: Stopping at about 45-55$

9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army

I read that due to restrains from the contract LEGO/TLG cannot make battle packs (like SW) for LOTR, which makes this just a great, and probably the ONLY chance for Uruk-hai battle pack, If Eomer is not re-released (Pelennor etc) then this Battle Pack might just increase nicely.

Predictions: stopping at about 65-80$$

9472-1: Attack On Weathertop

Questions are: Only time we see Nazgul? I doubt it, Merry? possible (but there is still pelennor) I think this set might actually do rather bad. It might just be cheapest set to get 7 Nazgul but that will be it. i expect it to not increase much over the next year (after EOL) so unless you got heavy discount (30%+) I think this will do poor, I skipped it)

Predictions: stopping around 70-90$

9473-1: The Mines of Moria

I think this is the sleeper of the line. With unique figures (Boromir and Cave troll likely to NOT be repeated) currently also Legolas, Pipping and Moria Orcs, this set just have it all, except that it is purely a play set (looks worse on display than lets say helm's Deep) I think this will easily double, i expect it to go 2,5x retail aswell within 2 years.

Predictions: Stopping at about 140-180$

9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep

Every says this is a winner, and i cannot object with much theory, but I am just afraid everyone got it and it will take year(s) for price to grow(unlike Mines) I guess this has the potential on 3x retail IF LOTR is re-released in 3D if Hobbit makes great children appeal and IF Theoden will not be re-released much more.

Predictions: 240-300$

EXCLUSIVE SET:

9476-1: The Orc Forge

I think it will do well, especially considering we get Orthanc released. With unique white hand armor printing and Lurtz (If it does not come in Orthanc then it will likely never come, doubt about Amon hen) this set is a potential winner, People who buy Orhanc would want this set (or even 2-3) for their display.

Predictions: 80-120$

Hope this is somewhat useful and good to read, these are purely my views and predictions, will enjoy reading anyones else.

Kind regards

[TheDarkness]

Other than having different views on Weathertop, I concur, particularly on the Mines of Moria set which I have been acquiring a few of. Where else do you think they will put in the Nazgul? Considering Lego has made the Eagle in the upcoming Black Gate set, we can only hope they will come up with a Fell Beast, with in turn the Witch King. I doubt Lego would put two Fell Beasts into a set, so we would probably just see the Witch King and Fell Beast, possibly with Theoden and Snowmane in a set on the Pelannor. So who knows if we will see the Nazgul again. But really, the Nazgul weren't in that many scenes in the trilogy (searching for Frodo, chasing Aragorn and the hobbits to Weathertop, the Arwen chase scene, riding aimlessly on the Fell Beasts, the Minas Tirith fight scene and then finally the concluding battle at the gates) If you stop and think about it, two of these scenes have been made and they are really key ones, so it all depends on what they decide to throw into a Minas Tirith/Pelannor set should they decide to make one. Now obviously the Hobbit has been expanded to cover other events, so they could potentially be more involved in those. But it is pure speculation. Other factors on the sets side are that the attack on Weathertop really is an iconic scene in the trilogy, it has 5 minifigs and 2 horses, and it looks awesome! I'm not going to predict prices. I'm not game enough to. But I have put a few sets aside for later reselling and will hope it takes off.

[Alcarin]

Other than having different views on Weathertop, I concur, particularly on the Mines of Moria set which I have been acquiring a few of.

Where else do you think they will put in the Nazgul? Considering Lego has made the Eagle in the upcoming Black Gate set, we can only hope they will come up with a Fell Beast, with in turn the Witch King. I doubt Lego would put two Fell Beasts into a set, so we would probably just see the Witch King and Fell Beast, possibly with Theoden and Snowmane in a set on the Pelannor. So who knows if we will see the Nazgul again.

But really, the Nazgul weren't in that many scenes in the trilogy (searching for Frodo, chasing Aragorn and the hobbits to Weathertop, the Arwen chase scene, riding aimlessly on the Fell Beasts, the Minas Tirith fight scene and then finally the concluding battle at the gates)

If you stop and think about it, two of these scenes have been made and they are really key ones, so it all depends on what they decide to throw into a Minas Tirith/Pelannor set should they decide to make one.

Now obviously the Hobbit has been expanded to cover other events, so they could potentially be more involved in those. But it is pure speculation.

Other factors on the sets side are that the attack on Weathertop really is an iconic scene in the trilogy, it has 5 minifigs and 2 horses, and it looks awesome!

I'm not going to predict prices. I'm not game enough to. But I have put a few sets aside for later reselling and will hope it takes off.

Well the retail for Weathertop is just over the top in my opinion, and the display value is not that high (I would argue Mines of Moria looks better on display than a ruined tower)

Maybe I am a little biased, but I just have no appeal on the Weathertop set overall. You are right though, most of iconic stuff with Nazgul happened.

Maybe it is just me but my feeling says ''stay away from this set'' ok sure if you can get it 30% or more off go for it but retail or 10% below retail, no thanks. There is no need to go for the set unless

a) you want all sets

you want Nazgul x7

c) you want Merry (but thats cheaper to buy off individually)

Horses are ok, but with red eyes it is only so much you can do with them to not look weird and out of place. Aragorn is easy to get with 1 Helm's deep which also looks 10 times better on display, Frodo is cheap in Shelob attack, and the set retail price kinda sucks for Brick acquiring, better to buy Mines of Moria then.

I might be totally off, but i see even Shelob doing better than Weathertop (percentage wise)