Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[$20 on joe vs dan]

10 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

Yesterday, I tried to buy a sub $200 Chromebook in store at Walmart.  They had zero.  Not just sub $200 Chromebooks, but every laptop they were sold out of.  I asked if other stores were like this, and they said yes.  I checked the Seeker of the Brick, and discovered it's true - I couldn't walk into a store anywhere nearby and pick up a decently priced laptop.  The tech guys told me it's been nuts - everyone is bored, and they're buying things to occupy the time.

My neighbors went out today to buy a trampoline for their little girl.  They couldn't find one anywhere.  They even tried an online trampoline dealer, and were told they were sold out.

Just two examples, but to me, it's just indicative of what I think we're going to experience for awhile.  We're locked down.  People are BORED.  Even when things open back up, we're still going to see this.  And we've got serious supply chain issues that are going to take a long time to fix.

Those willing to risk will be greatly rewarded.  I think if you're willing to wait until Q4, you might find great reward - especially if a second stimulus package gets passed.  There could be money to burn, and no where to spend it, and very little stock to spend it on.

These examples make sense given the situation..there is definite scarcity in some segments.  We all knew that there are strong opposing forces at work: scarcity and unemployment...the "hammer" on the latter has not dropped yet...no where close.  folks are told they don;t need to pay rent or their mortgage or their car payment...or even their CC....heck folks don't even have to go to work

  Sounds great...

 

[Justy6969]

Here in Europe it is interesting times. My ebay sales ,are nearly at pre-xmas levels in terms of intensity, and I have been thankful to get rid of a few pieces of inventory that have been hanging around for a while. The May 4th promo , was the worst I have seen in terms of LEGO inventory in the UK for such a large event. No reduction on the usual sets - X-wing etc , but the poorer selling lines they need to get rid of, and coming-up to retirement. Even the GWP Death Star II sold out by Saturday evening here, where you can usually pick one up on last day of promo on most events.

Other online retailers - Amazon etc are being less generous in terms of set discounts to protect margin. Even supermarkets which used to be a good hunting ground for EOL or mid season range reductions are selling most sets at full price. One wonders if even LEGO group, is now struggling to maintain its inventory, with supplier closures and delays in production, which must hit them at some point even if its for the raw material they use.

The true measure to my business in these difficult times, will be late June and July, when I am expecting a dip in sales mainly from running out of some inventory.Those who have been furloughed will return to work, perhaps with an uncertain future in some industries, and watching the purse strings a little more closely. Despite being at home during the past 6 weeks, they may be a little less reluctant to spend out on 'boredom relief'. Its going to be a while , before all the World economies have adjusted to the new 'norm' in everything .Hopefully, it will recover enough by Xmas to be able to take advantage of a good Q4.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

21 minutes ago, Justy6969 said:

Here in Europe it is interesting times. My ebay sales ,are nearly at pre-xmas levels in terms of intensity, and I have been thankful to get rid of a few pieces of inventory that have been hanging around for a while. The May 4th promo , was the worst I have seen in terms of LEGO inventory in the UK for such a large event. No reduction on the usual sets - X-wing etc , but the poorer selling lines they need to get rid of, and coming-up to retirement. Even the GWP Death Star II sold out by Saturday evening here, where you can usually pick one up on last day of promo on most events.

Other online retailers - Amazon etc are being less generous in terms of set discounts to protect margin. Even supermarkets which used to be a good hunting ground for EOL or mid season range reductions are selling most sets at full price. One wonders if even LEGO group, is now struggling to maintain its inventory, with supplier closures and delays in production, which must hit them at some point even if its for the raw material they use.

The true measure to my business in these difficult times, will be late June and July, when I am expecting a dip in sales mainly from running out of some inventory.Those who have been furloughed will return to work, perhaps with an uncertain future in some industries, and watching the purse strings a little more closely. Despite being at home during the past 6 weeks, they may be a little less reluctant to spend out on 'boredom relief'. Its going to be a while , before all the World economies have adjusted to the new 'norm' in everything .Hopefully, it will recover enough by Xmas to be able to take advantage of a good Q4.

Well written.  thank-you

I think the common theme this Christmas will be: "Who has inventory" Some sets will sky-rocket...and surely change (greedy) hands multiple times

Edited May 5, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Huskers1236]

I'm completely out of packing supplies at this point.  When 10220's are selling, you know it's a sellers' market.

[zskid00]

25 minutes ago, Huskers1236 said:

I'm completely out of packing supplies at this point.  When 10220's are selling, you know it's a sellers' market.

I have more packing paper arriving tomorrow thankfully!

[Foreman Porgy]

It’s been a great time to get rid of power puff girls sets.

[zaphoid]

21 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

I have more packing paper arriving tomorrow thankfully!

where do you get paper from? I need to reorder soon.

[donbee]

Yesterday, I tried to buy a sub $200 Chromebook in store at Walmart.  They had zero.  Not just sub $200 Chromebooks, but every laptop they were sold out of.  I asked if other stores were like this, and they said yes.  I checked the Seeker of the Brick, and discovered it's true -

 

 

A lot has to do with schools, distance learning. Chrome books in particular are favored by a lot of districts (some use apple), and they needed to have enough for every students who needed one (typically several classes will share the same set). Also it’s what they recommended to parents who could afford their own.

[Gonkalin]

2 hours ago, Huskers1236 said:

I'm completely out of packing supplies at this point.  When 10220's are selling, you know it's a sellers' market.

Sold my first for $170 a few days ago.

[Salimr]

On 5/4/2020 at 10:45 PM, Alpinemaps said:

Yesterday, I tried to buy a sub $200 Chromebook in store at Walmart.  They had zero.  Not just sub $200 Chromebooks, but every laptop they were sold out of.  I asked if other stores were like this, and they said yes.  I checked the Seeker of the Brick, and discovered it's true - I couldn't walk into a store anywhere nearby and pick up a decently priced laptop.  The tech guys told me it's been nuts - everyone is bored, and they're buying things to occupy the time.

My neighbors went out today to buy a trampoline for their little girl.  They couldn't find one anywhere.  They even tried an online trampoline dealer, and were told they were sold out.

Just two examples, but to me, it's just indicative of what I think we're going to experience for awhile.  We're locked down.  People are BORED.  Even when things open back up, we're still going to see this.  And we've got serious supply chain issues that are going to take a long time to fix.

Those willing to risk will be greatly rewarded.  I think if you're willing to wait until Q4, you might find great reward - especially if a second stimulus package gets passed.  There could be money to burn, and no where to spend it, and very little stock to spend it on.

We had the same problem buying a basketball hoop (I just got the more expensive one, which is what I wanted anyway) and a sewing machine. It is like this for everything. My friend said bikes were sold out when she went to get one also. 
by the way the chrome books are highly used in schools, so all the students needed them. I teach and have all my assignments set up for google doc submission which is perfect for the inexpensive chrome book. Most schools will issue them at 1 per family which is not enough. 

[Alpinemaps]

We had the same problem buying a basketball hoop (I just got the more expensive one, which is what I wanted anyway) and a sewing machine. It is like this for everything. My friend said bikes were sold out when she went to get one also. 
by the way the chrome books are highly used in schools, so all the students needed them. I teach and have all my assignments set up for google doc submission which is perfect for the inexpensive chrome book. Most schools will issue them at 1 per family which is not enough. 

Yeah we have Chromebooks for our kids and they work great for the distance working. Long story, but I was considering moving my MIL to one instead of dealing with upgrading her 7 year old laptop from Win 8 to Win 10.

After that little adventure, I just went with upgrading the laptop.

I’ve seen the same issue with weights that you all are seeing, too.

[exciter1]

5 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

Yeah we have Chromebooks for our kids and they work great for the distance working. Long story, but I was considering moving my MIL to one instead of dealing with upgrading her 7 year old laptop from Win 8 to Win 10.

After that little adventure, I just went with upgrading the laptop.

I’ve seen the same issue with weights that you all are seeing, too.

I just noticed the ramen noodle shortage.

[BillyBricks]

34 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I just noticed the ramen noodle shortage.

I'm assuming you've already prepared a bunker filled with corn dogs in case we reach true-apocalypse mode with a shortage of those. 

[exciter1]

5 minutes ago, BillyBricks said:

I'm assuming you've already prepared a bunker filled with corn dogs in case we reach true-apocalypse mode with a shortage of those. 

It's kind of like when Uncle Leo says "no more nuts" when they are holed up in the Plaza Hotel, but it's "no more corn dogs".

[zskid00]

16 hours ago, zaphoid said:

where do you get paper from? I need to reorder soon.

I've just been buying on eBay from seller threerb.  Though the same listing was 10% cheaper in early April.  I'm sure they are seeing increased demand for some of their products with so many people shipping from home.  You can certainly get this stuff cheaper if you can use a roll instead of sheets.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Newsprint-Packing-Paper-Moving-Shipping-Paper-24-x-36-25-lbs-approx-400-sheets/291240518573?ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2649

Edited May 6, 2020 by zskid00

[HandyHand]

Is it really that bad in the USA, regarding availability of both common goods (toilet paper, ramen noodles) and luxury goods (laptops/Chromebooks, LEGO 10220, etc) ???

Here in Europe you can still get the 10220 (in stock) from LEGO LEGO Shop at Home (back order though) and also from other stores even below LEGO price.

There's also no shortage of any item you can buy in the supermarkets.

[SageFly]

5 minutes ago, HandyHand said:

Is it really that bad in the USA, regarding availability of both common goods (toilet paper, ramen noodles) and luxury goods (laptops/Chromebooks, LEGO 10220, etc) ???

Here in Europe you can still get the 10220 (in stock) from LEGO LEGO Shop at Home (back order though) and also from other stores even below LEGO price.

There's also no shortage of any item you can buy in the supermarkets.

I've been going to the supermarket 1x per week for the past 8 weeks and it's quite common to see toilet paper, ramen, ground beef, all fresh poultry and healthy bread completely out of stock. Any items that make staying home easier for parents are also gone from most places (laptops, video game consoles, outdoor playsets/swings, etc). There seems to still be plenty of toys down the aisles, but I'm not sure if that's just clever reorganizing or lack of buying.

The amount of money given out to people here in the US has spurred on a buying spree for many lower income families that aren't used to the extra cash flow. A $3500 check for a family of 4 and $1000+/week for those that lost their jobs and can obtain unemployment benefits is a windfall for many families that haven't had more than $50-$100/wk in non-allocated spending money for years.

I'm enjoying the extra income with a large increase in Lego sales, but I'm concerned at what this means in the long term. The estimate right now is that the average tax burden per family is >$25k for all the debt the money the country is printing for this "stimulus". That's a lot of taxes to pay or a very long road to recovery.

[HandyHand]

4 minutes ago, SageFly said:

I'm enjoying the extra income with a large increase in Lego sales, but I'm concerned at what this means in the long term. The estimate right now is that the average tax burden per family is >$25k for all the debt the money the country is printing for this "stimulus". That's a lot of taxes to pay or a very long road to recovery.

This extra deficit the governments all over the world are creating to battle the impact of the corona measurements is not ever going to be paid back. And ultimately all the extra money will over time flow towards and concentrate with the richest 1%.

For the time being, just enjoy the ride and sell all the sets from your inventory you want to get rid of for these current prices.  

[legolegolego2014]

On 4/16/2020 at 3:39 PM, exciter1 said:

75222 is making a strong showing

Lowest price on Amazon is currently $739.99. 😯

[Shortbus311]

Lowest price on Amazon is currently $739.99. 

With only 5 sellers on Amazon... looks like not many believed in this set. This could reach $1k by Christmas easily

 

[MrSam]

Interesting. 75222 is still available here at RRP of $600 (~$370US). 

But I'm still debating whether or not to buy any... They're a slow mover so I'm hoping for a sale 🤔

[elmaslıefendi]

I can still get this 75222 for 260€ if i want, even in bulk. Glad I didn't buy any. What a flop!

[Pseudoty]

Becky with the Ship in the Bottle on display. Not sure what Mech that is?

[Phil B]

3 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Becky with the Ship in the Bottle on display. Not sure what Mech that is?

Overwatch 75974 Bastion

Edited May 12, 2020 by Phil B

[MrSam]

12 hours ago, elmaslıefendi said:

I can still get this 75222 for 260€ if i want, even in bulk. Glad I didn't buy any. What a flop!

It's an interesting one. I guess if few enough people have it on hand, prices may still drive up.

Low demand + even lower production = high prices?

I've decided to buy 8x at a similar price to yours. Will be an interesting bet come Christmas.