Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[elmaslıefendi]

41 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

You are 2 days from August.  Before you know it, it will be the holidays.  Covid could take another shot at supply chains, which are still having a hard time replenishing even basic building materials across the board.  Major retailers are closed on Thanksgiving.  You haven't seen nothing yet.  

So you're saying 500 fba for 10220 in December

[Ed Mack]

21 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

So you're saying 500 fba for 10220 in December

Every dog has its day.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

I am hearing from sources in our regional health office...closures and full on SIP is planned for the Fall....may happen earlier in some regions if numbers do not improve. This time health officials are preparing for the backlash...expect actual enforcement of mask and curfew mandates w/ fines and citations

Basically a majority of the nation, in October, will be stuck at home, with nothing to do but shop online.

[exracer327]

6 hours ago, Mark Twain said:

Holy God . . . GDP down nearly 33%! I wonder if this means the selling trend will continue? 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

Well, Q2 is in the past (ended June 30)... while everyone was buying LEGO like there was no tomorrow.

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I am hearing from sources in our regional health office...closures and full on SIP is planned for the Fall....may happen earlier in some regions if numbers do not improve. This time health officials are preparing for the backlash...expect actual enforcement of mask and curfew mandates w/ fines and citations

Basically a majority of the nation, in October, will be stuck at home, with nothing to do but shop online.

A full on SIP crackdown will not help improve sales at this point IMO, it will only scare people into saving whatever money they have.  Money will run out, even for those lucky enough to work from home.  Moderation is the key.  Here in NJ, we are limiting the spread after a horrendous start.  Many have suffered both physically and financially, but at least there is some positive signs of improving business and reduced virus spread.  

[Sauromosis]

Some good points here...I saw one of my Facebook friends post a meme about "hey, the 600 a week is running out, check with me if you have a big TV before you go to the pawn shop" and it really got me thinking.

GDP was way down and if we see worsening unemployment numbers as "flu season" starts up, it could cause a lot of people to tighten their belts. There will always be wealthy people to buy Lego, but I'm wondering if the majority will have a somewhat quiet Christmas as they save their money.

 

 

[MrToes16]

5 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

There will always be wealthy people to buy Lego, 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

9 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

Some good points here...I saw one of my Facebook friends post a meme about "hey, the 600 a week is running out, check with me if you have a big TV before you go to the pawn shop" and it really got me thinking.

GDP was way down and if we see worsening unemployment numbers as "flu season" starts up, it could cause a lot of people to tighten their belts. There will always be wealthy people to buy Lego, but I'm wondering if the majority will have a somewhat quiet Christmas as they save their money.

 

 

a lot of seals from expensive sets were broken in the past 3 months

a lot of expensive used sets will be flooding the market

as the reseller song goes..."there is a season to sell and a season to buy...turn...turn...turn"

[redcell]

My reselling business was very different during the '07-'08 recession, but I saw very little change in my sales throughout that period and grew quite a bit as well.  In my experience at least, the Lego market is not tied to the broader economy in the way that many here think.

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, sauromosis said:

Some good points here...I saw one of my Facebook friends post a meme about "hey, the 600 a week is running out, check with me if you have a big TV before you go to the pawn shop" and it really got me thinking.

GDP was way down and if we see worsening unemployment numbers as "flu season" starts up, it could cause a lot of people to tighten their belts. There will always be wealthy people to buy Lego, but I'm wondering if the majority will have a somewhat quiet Christmas as they save their money.

 

 

As a business owner that has weathered the storm so far, I can tell you that I am worried about a second round of more restrictive social distancing measures.  While the economy will improve if things remain as is, forcing more closures and restrictions upon the public will have a "trickle up" effect IMO.  The service workers took a hit the first round, but this next round will hit more people higher up on the payroll food chain.  These are the people who buy expensive LEGO sets.  

[Sfcommando14]

While this doesn’t directly answer the question, it highlights the existence of a 2-class economic system during this period. Our customers are very much the couple discussed here.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/29/896942333/the-coronavirus-housing-boom

[Sauromosis]

I never had any desire to own a pool until this summer. 

[BrickLegacy]

I never had any desire to own a pool until this summer. 

I’ve seen three pool installations in my neighborhood this summer

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, Sfcommando14 said:

While this doesn’t directly answer the question, it highlights the existence of a 2-class economic system during this period. Our customers are very much the couple discussed here.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/29/896942333/the-coronavirus-housing-boom

Not just CCP virus, I would argue the extended "summer of love" in big urban areas like Portland and Seattle also contributed to the exodus

[Sfcommando14]

Not just CCP virus, I would argue the extended "summer of love" in big urban areas like Portland and Seattle also contributed to the exodus

No clue what that virus is, but I haven’t seen any corresponding decline in urban housing prices during the current COVID-19 virus. As someone who just bought a second house, the market was up in both urban and suburban areas we looked at.

[ravenb99]

2 hours ago, sauromosis said:

I never had any desire to own a pool until this summer. 

Much easier to do this with a pool.  

[Sauromosis]

The neighbors would immediately call the cops.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

3 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

While this doesn’t directly answer the question, it highlights the existence of a 2-class economic system during this period. Our customers are very much the couple discussed here.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/29/896942333/the-coronavirus-housing-boom

seriously 9 minutes and not a single mention of the rate that is likely causing the vast majority of movement

it's the mortgage interest rate , stupid

[Sfcommando14]

seriously 9 minutes and not a single mention of the rate that is likely causing the vast majority of movement
it's the mortgage interest rate , stupid

The current rate isn’t significantly better than the one I got 6 years ago for my other house.

[exciter1]

20 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

The current rate isn’t significantly better than the one I got 6 years ago for my other house.

True, we checked into refinance recently and it’s more advantageous to pay extra principal.

[keymomachine]

21 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

The current rate isn’t significantly better than the one I got 6 years ago for my other house.

I guess... I just closed on a refi on the house I bought six years ago and raised my payment $15, but went from 24 years left to 15 years left 

[Phil B]

I guess... I just closed on a refi on the house I bought six years ago and raised my payment $15, but went from 24 years left to 15 years left 

Went from 30 to 15 today, and from 3.75% to 2.5%. Plus I have a 5 figure sum standing ready from recent LEGO sales to take the top off that new mortgage to further shorten the runtime.

[exciter1]

Definitely advantageous for folks with long period loans.

[Darth_Raichu]

3 hours ago, Sfcommando14 said:

No clue what that virus is, but I haven’t seen any corresponding decline in urban housing prices during the current COVID-19 virus. As someone who just bought a second house, the market was up in both urban and suburban areas we looked at.

Most call it Covid, I'd rather call it after the organization that covered up the severity of the outbreak back in December, ie. the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

By the way, which metropolitan area were you referring to ? (if you do not mind, of course)

[Mark Twain]

Mexico's schools will be entirely remote this fall. I'm guessing this will impact production further. 

http://www.therepublic.com/2020/08/03/ap-lt-virus-outbreak-mexico-schools/