Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[redcell]

I'm not sure that folks who are taking unemployment are the ones dropping big bucks on Lego sets.  It's far more likely to be parents who are both employed and working from home, and need something to keep their kids occupied during the day.  A lot of folks I know say that they've been buying Lego to help pass the time either for themselves or their kids...a few have even marveled at how expensive some sets have gotten.

[Darth_Raichu]

2 minutes ago, redcell said:

a few have even marveled at how expensive some sets have gotten.

More new reseller blood to keep the LEGO bubble from popping

[Belac]

Hogwarts and barracuda bay available at shop at home.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

39 minutes ago, Belac said:

Hogwarts and barracuda bay available at shop at home.

so that still leaves the Disney Castle as the last chip to fall

[skinsfan0521]

3 hours ago, redcell said:

I'm not sure that folks who are taking unemployment are the ones dropping big bucks on Lego sets.  It's far more likely to be parents who are both employed and working from home, and need something to keep their kids occupied during the day.  A lot of folks I know say that they've been buying Lego to help pass the time either for themselves or their kids...a few have even marveled at how expensive some sets have gotten.

This is what I've heard from friends of mine in this situation as well. 

[glostik]

Orders have fallen for me in the last week. I guess I have finally run out of the current desired sets

[$20 on joe vs dan]

16 minutes ago, skinsfan0521 said:

This is what I've heard from friends of mine in this situation as well. 

side question...are you going to change your handle

[skinsfan0521]

2 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

side question...are you going to change your handle

Haha if I knew how to change it in this forum, yes! 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

4 minutes ago, skinsfan0521 said:

Haha if I knew how to change it in this forum, yes! 

I think you need a super-mod to do it for you...in your case I think they will allow it

[iriki]

Americans have more discretionary income due to "low" taxes. Pair that with access to cheap credit and you have the worlds biggest spenders. 

Reading on the other thread, I'll post here my .02c

Someone mentioned taxes and me thinks that's part of the reason North Americans have so much purchasing power. I make around 42k pa but only take home around 29k. And that's a pretty good amount of money for my small European country. Another factor is that mostly everyone in here lives in apartments where they lack space to store lots of sets.

Almost an anecdote, but I have a friend who lived and worked in England, Germany and in the US. To this day his biggest regret was to leave the land across the pond, where he said he made so much money that he didn't have time to pirate video games, he just bought them whenever he wanted. This was a shocker to me, as 20 years ago normal middle-class teenagers here would only buy one video game per year, usually at around Christmas.

20 years later and the most expensive LEGO sets cost more than what minimum wage workers bring home every month, so the gap is still there. Let's just imagine what South Americans and Africans have to save in order to buy a 600 dollar set.

If on the other hand you look at Germany and UK, there's a lot more purchasing power than my small country, but still doesn't even come closer to the US, where sets are cheaper when you convert USD to EUR: a 100$ set is also usually 100 Euro, but 100 bucks are 89 EUR, thus making the difference even larger.

So all in all, yes, low taxes and cheap credit paired with A LOT of land space make it the dream land for a LEGO reseller.

[kouks]

I only sell locally on Kjiji and Craigslist but I have found sales dropped to zero in last three weeks.    Since we are having nice weather and restrictions are lifted I am assuming more people are getting out and about.   I live in Ontario.  Not sure if buying may pick-up again in the fall or if the Lego buying blitz is over??

[TheBrickClique]

2 hours ago, kouks said:

I only sell locally on Kjiji and Craigslist but I have found sales dropped to zero in last three weeks.    Since we are having nice weather and restrictions are lifted I am assuming more people are getting out and about.   I live in Ontario.  Not sure if buying may pick-up again in the fall or if the Lego buying blitz is over??

I'm betting on it picking back up.  covid cases are climbing fast in the US and likely 90 to 98% of the population has yet to be infected.  A vaccine won't be out before Christmas.  I think a lot of people will be doing their Christmas shopping from home.

Now, the corollary might be that if the virus burns itself out before the holidays, there may be a need for folks with cabin fever to get out into the brick and mortar stores. 

What is an unknown is the discretionary spending abilities.  If they've been cooped up, they may have more savings to spend (I know my bank account has been happier by not eating out so much).  But if they lost an income in the house, LEGO will not be a top priority.

Ironic that your CL sales have dropped though.  You would think the more people got out, the more they would be willing to do a face-to-face meeting for CL.

I think what we are seeing right now is a movement back to ordering directly from the big online retailers.  In April, you were hard pressed to find a set over $100 in stock.  Now they are fairly common -- not all at once, but there are many options to choose from. 

[KShine]

3 hours ago, kouks said:

 Not sure if buying may pick-up again in the fall or if the Lego buying blitz is over??

While sales may not be anywhere close to the April/May level of insanity - things are still going strong, and are far from over.

[redcell]

Sales have definitely slowed over the last month, but it's just a lull.  The reality is that COVID isn't going anywhere anytime soon and we'll be in this for quite a while to come.     

[mizeur]

2 hours ago, KShine said:

While sales may not be anywhere close to the April/May level of insanity - things are still going strong, and are far from over.

Same. Not the firehose from early on but still consistently seeing different SKUs ripen and get cleaned out.

Edited July 15, 2020 by mizeur

[$20 on joe vs dan]

LEGO's Mexico plant city numbers (looking pretty bad):

https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/Monterrey+Nuevo+León+Mexico?canonicalCityId=c641151b28f60389898f58aba529d9ec306c2ccb04ad699216c44ee7c172cc75

CONFIRMED CASES304,435

16.3%Since last week

DEATHS35,491

14%Since last week

 

(FYI: if folks think this is distasteful to track the city's numbers...let me know...I think it's informative but I could see how posting these #s can be viewed negatively)

Edited July 16, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Darth_Raichu]

You know the game is on when Amazon (not 3PS) is selling non-retired set for 40% more than MSRP:

James Bond Aston Martin for $208.03

[joch29]

22 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

You know the game is on when Amazon (not 3PS) is selling non-retired set for 40% more than MSRP:

James Bond Aston Martin for $208.03

75159 for $813.25 sold by amazon 🙄

[Sauromosis]

On 7/15/2020 at 2:55 PM, TheBrickClique said:

I'm betting on it picking back up.  covid cases are climbing fast in the US and likely 90 to 98% of the population has yet to be infected.  A vaccine won't be out before Christmas.  I think a lot of people will be doing their Christmas shopping from home.

Now, the corollary might be that if the virus burns itself out before the holidays, there may be a need for folks with cabin fever to get out into the brick and mortar stores. 

What is an unknown is the discretionary spending abilities.  If they've been cooped up, they may have more savings to spend (I know my bank account has been happier by not eating out so much).  But if they lost an income in the house, LEGO will not be a top priority.

Ironic that your CL sales have dropped though.  You would think the more people got out, the more they would be willing to do a face-to-face meeting for CL.

I think what we are seeing right now is a movement back to ordering directly from the big online retailers.  In April, you were hard pressed to find a set over $100 in stock.  Now they are fairly common -- not all at once, but there are many options to choose from. 

You are correct that cases are picking back up in a big way, especially in the U.S. However, our best estimates from the 1918 Spanish Flu are that 30% of the world got infected. It will be nowhere near 90%. Unfortunately, we are only at 1% of the world so far this year. And also, like 1918, I fear and expect that this will be a 2-year process with more than one "wave."

Nostalgia will kick in in October and November and people will be eager to buy a nice Christmas gift. I expect Lego prices to be insane.

Edited July 17, 2020 by sauromosis

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, sauromosis said:

You are correct that cases are picking back up in a big way, especially in the U.S. However, our best estimates from the 1918 Spanish Flu are that 30% of the world got infected. It will be nowhere near 90%. Unfortunately, we are only at 1% of the world so far this year. And also, like 1918, I fear and expect that this will be a 2-year process with more than one "wave."

Nostalgia will kick in in October and November and people will be eager to buy a nice Christmas gift. I expect Lego prices to be insane.

I think the bottle-neck going into the holidays will be shipping.  There's a good chance shipping may freeze to a stand-still and it will be all about local facemask to facemask sales

[Mark Twain]

I think the bottle-neck going into the holidays will be shipping.  There's a good chance shipping may freeze to a stand-still and it will be all about local facemask to facemask sales

Nah, most major carriers have responded thus far and will hire for the holidays any extra folks they need. If anything it’s going to come down to a supply issue like it has been.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

2 hours ago, Mark Twain said:

Nah, most major carriers have responded thus far and will hire for the holidays any extra folks they need. If anything it’s going to come down to a supply issue like it has been.

sure...I know in the past the big carriers ramped up for holidays...but the x-factors this year is the US Mail-in ballots (Early Nov impact) which may be prioritized causing delays on packages (adding to a glut that may never clear up in time) and ofcourse the USPS is doing weird stuff. And ofcourse COVID impacts. 

[Darth_Raichu]

7 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

sure...I know in the past the big carriers ramped up for holidays...but the x-factors this year is the US Mail-in ballots (Early Nov impact) which may be prioritized causing delays on packages (adding to a glut that may never clear up in time) and ofcourse the USPS is doing weird stuff. And ofcourse COVID impacts. 

Not too worry about that TBH.  The major retailers will be / is lobbying the government to have all of these political stuffs cleared up before the all important $$$$, I mean holiday seasons 

[Mark Twain]

Holy God . . . GDP down nearly 33%! I wonder if this means the selling trend will continue? 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

[Ed Mack]

2 hours ago, Mark Twain said:

Holy God . . . GDP down nearly 33%! I wonder if this means the selling trend will continue? 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

You are 2 days from August.  Before you know it, it will be the holidays.  Covid could take another shot at supply chains, which are still having a hard time replenishing even basic building materials across the board.  Major retailers are closed on Thanksgiving.  You haven't seen nothing yet.