$20 on joe vs dan Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: That is why you stick with Jyn and/or Rey buildables. Their values are pandemic-proof my kid is only 8...give it a couple more years before I dislike his friends that much 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotorCityMuscle Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 tie fighter helmets back in stock at Target if anyone needs one. guaranteed to come beat to ****. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landphieran Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 I'm curious how long these recent set replenishment's will hold up. If they last less then a few weeks this winter is going to be a gold mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrickClique Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 43 minutes ago, landphieran said: I'm curious how long these recent set replenishment's will hold up. If they last less then a few weeks this winter is going to be a gold mine. I’ve been too busy to look at many of the manufacturing codes on the new sets. I think one was WW09 so early March. If we see a lot of sets from early in the year, then it might not last long once they relabel and sell out of their stockpile. If it’s a recent code, then it could be around for awhile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enotoga Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 Looks like Lego is finally shipping me my new Haunted House. I expected the order to get canceled. Too bad it's only one. I wonder if I should sell it now. The market is going to be flooded with 10273's in a couple months, right?????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lego2lego Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 On 6/18/2020 at 4:33 PM, joch29 said: treehouse 17S0 On 6/18/2020 at 5:58 PM, thedingman5 said: Same here. And my Hogwarts castle was 15S0. I received my treehouse, which is sold by amazon. The seal does NOT have code. Is this something I should worry about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landphieran Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Do people anticipate sales this year for Lego sets? I've started adding to my year end inventory a bit early this year. I've added 20% of my year end inventory goals on expected retiring targets at discounts of 10-20%. Bought a chunk of short term and medium term flips ranging from 0-20% discounts. My best guess this year is that early fall we will see some discounts of 20-25% but i don't expect them to last long. With purchasing restrictions in place its no longer as easy to grab 100's of a set at a great price. I'm expecting lagging production runs through Christmas and afterwards. I've never purchased so many sets at near RRP and it feels really wrong. But my gut instinct tells me it's the right move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Helmet Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 minute ago, landphieran said: Do people anticipate sales this year for Lego sets? I've started adding to my year end inventory a bit early this year. I've added 20% of my year end inventory goals on expected retiring targets at discounts of 10-20%. Bought a chunk of short term and medium term flips ranging from 0-20% discounts. My best guess this year is that early fall we will see some discounts of 20-25% but i don't expect them to last long. With purchasing restrictions in place its no longer as easy to grab 100's of a set at a great price. I'm expecting lagging production runs through Christmas and afterwards. I've never purchased so many sets at near RRP and it feels really wrong. But my gut instinct tells me it's the right move. hard to tell. Amazon analytics is prob going crazy. All of these new sets that have just been released but just OOS are going way above MSRP. Why would they put any on discount when they know it sells higher than MSRP. It will be awhile before everything normalizes to standard 20% off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennugsmello Posted June 29, 2020 Author Share Posted June 29, 2020 UPDATE Post. Here is some updated prices. Price change period April 6th - June 29th. April 6th – Jun 29th Ninjago City 70620 – $300 - $500 / $500 - $600 Ninjago City Docks 70657 – $309 – $339 – / $350 - $400 Jokers Manor 70922 – $450 - $500 / $550 - $600 Silent Mary 71042 – $229 - $250 - / $340- $400 Brick Bank 10251 - $240 - $400 – / $425 - $450 Detectives Office 10246 - $300 - $400 – / $380 -$400 Old Fishing Store 21310 - $310 - $359 – / $350 - $390 Technic Porsche 911 42056 - $350 - $450 – / $525 - $600 MC Mountain Cave 21137 - $479 - $599 – / $650 - $670 SW Cloud City 75222 - $400 - $700 – / $500 - $600 Ninjago Dest Bounty 70618 $229 - $250 – / $260 - $290 Creator Ferris Wheel 10247 $350 - $400 - / $400 - $450 MC The Farm Cottage 21144 $109 – 149 – / $159 - $179 MC skeleton Attack 21146 $79 - $95 - / $100 - $130 MC Waterfall Base 21134 $92 – $120 - / $110 - $120 MC Ocean Monument 21136 $140 - $170 - / $150 - $190 Elves Healing Hideout 41187 $75 - $99 - / $100 Elves Tree Bat 41196 $74 - $90 - / $90 - $100 Elves Earth Fox 41194 $70 - $90 - / $130- $140 Elves Noctura SD 41195 $64 - $74 - / $100 - $110 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 I hate to admit it, but operating in "Christmas mode" (fulfilling several orders every day) during summer is wearing me down. I may need to shift to undercutting other sellers via FBA instead Or maybe I am just getting too old for this game 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cladner Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: I hate to admit it, but operating in "Christmas mode" (fulfilling several orders every day) during summer is wearing me down. I may need to shift to undercutting other sellers via FBA instead Or maybe I am just getting too old for this game geezer. don't you have some boxes to pre-fab instead of "moderating"? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, cladner said: geezer. don't you have some boxes to pre-fab instead of "moderating"? "Moderating"? Nah. They only page me when people start complaining about out of topic posts on Daily Deals thread 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
$20 on joe vs dan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 I think the Croc provides some useful data for QFLL. Initially (prior to going TOOS) seems like it's a 60 day delay form LEGO Shop at Home on backorders from the date of release. So 2 months seems to be the lag between LEGO identifying needing more production and becoming available again. this is grossly simplified, but I am hoping that the vets here could chime in on whether a 2 month lag sounds about right. Basically give QFLL a "window" to operate in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legorunner Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: So 2 months seems to be the lag between LEGO identifying needing more production and becoming available again I'm sure others have even more specific info, but 60 days is often the amount of time that they state, but it can always come back sooner. I've had sets over the years ship at least a couple of weeks earlier than initially promised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landphieran Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, legorunner said: I'm sure others have even more specific info, but 60 days is often the amount of time that they state, but it can always come back sooner. I've had sets over the years ship at least a couple of weeks earlier than initially promised. LEGO is a very conservative company and will often put worse case scenario timelines for production. This winter is going to be extremely interesting. A lot of shopping shifted to online sales over the past 10 years but this year it will be an extreme shift. The freight companies are backed up like crazy and it will only get worse. Amazon appears to be shipping items directly from LEGO warehouses given how many boxes have shown up in LEGO branded boxes. I could imagine a world where LEGO uses Amazon as a store front and logistics company to fulfill its back order of sets instead of finding freight companies to distribute them to B&M stores. Amazon is poised to be a crusher in times like this. They built the most efficient fulfillment system in existence and continue to be flexible and innovate. I would expect non traditional fulfillment and stock fluctuations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
$20 on joe vs dan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, landphieran said: LEGO is a very conservative company and will often put worse case scenario timelines for production. This winter is going to be extremely interesting. A lot of shopping shifted to online sales over the past 10 years but this year it will be an extreme shift. The freight companies are backed up like crazy and it will only get worse. Amazon appears to be shipping items directly from LEGO warehouses given how many boxes have shown up in LEGO branded boxes. I could imagine a world where LEGO uses Amazon as a store front and logistics company to fulfill its back order of sets instead of finding freight companies to distribute them to B&M stores. Amazon is poised to be a crusher in times like this. They built the most efficient fulfillment system in existence and continue to be flexible and innovate. I would expect non traditional fulfillment and stock fluctuations. so how I read that is...resellers w/ stock in hand will be positioned rather nicely for local (inperson) sales when the time sensitive Christmas crunch inevitably occurs . Not only would buyers be guaranteed getting the product but also have assurances on box quality for gifting. so the take home lesson is to stock up now before supply chain AND SHIPPING ISSUES delay fall purchases. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 50 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: this is grossly simplified, but I am hoping that the vets here could chime in on whether a 2 month lag sounds about right. Basically give QFLL a "window" to operate in. CCP virus threw a monkey wrench to any pattern I have seen from the past 6-7 years. Past performance was useless and it gave me a headache trying to predict the future with so many moving variables 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
$20 on joe vs dan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said: CCP virus threw a monkey wrench to any pattern I have seen from the past 6-7 years. Past performance was useless and it gave me a headache trying to predict the future with so many moving variables it's the point of this thread...should be relabeled: "How to read CV trend tea leaves" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
$20 on joe vs dan Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 FYI: the LEGO plant in Mexico is in the Monterrey region: https://www.vallartadaily.com/mexico-reverses-course-on-some-reopening-as-covid-19-continues-to-spread/ Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by about 6,740 newly confirmed cases Friday for a second straight day, while 654 more deaths raised the country’s total to 29,843. The number of deaths is the sixth-highest highest in the world, and Mexico is just a few dozen from overtaking France for the fifth-highest death toll, though Mexico’s population is about double that of France. The continued increase in cases and deaths has stalled Mexico’s planned re-opening. The northern border state of Nuevo Leon, home to the city of Monterrey, declared a weekend curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Schubert Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 4 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: FYI: the LEGO plant in Mexico is in the Monterrey region: https://www.vallartadaily.com/mexico-reverses-course-on-some-reopening-as-covid-19-continues-to-spread/ Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by about 6,740 newly confirmed cases Friday for a second straight day, while 654 more deaths raised the country’s total to 29,843. The number of deaths is the sixth-highest highest in the world, and Mexico is just a few dozen from overtaking France for the fifth-highest death toll, though Mexico’s population is about double that of France. The continued increase in cases and deaths has stalled Mexico’s planned re-opening. The northern border state of Nuevo Leon, home to the city of Monterrey, declared a weekend curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. Which leads me to believe... BUY BUY BUY!!! RRP is the new 50% off. I can't imagine things will get better in time for the Q4 ramp up... which should be happening nowish. Imagine if they shut it down again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth_Raichu Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 8 hours ago, House Schubert said: Which leads me to believe... BUY BUY BUY!!! RRP is the new 50% off. I can't imagine things will get better in time for the Q4 ramp up... which should be happening nowish. Imagine if they shut it down again... Somebody with more talents than I, create a Youtube video out of this (Sing it to the tune of "Kung Fu Fighting") Everybody is doing the quick flipping Grabbing all deals like lightning Although the future is a little bit frightening People still love order fulfilling 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iriki Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 I have a feeling the bubble may burst soon. I'm a very small time seller, but have already seen a pretty big downturn over the past week or so. When folks were getting stimulus checks and assuming everything would just return to normal in 30-60 days, it was gravy train time. Now that the economic reality is setting in, I think we're going to see some serious belt tightening. Just my two cents....hope I'm wrong!Found an interesting post today regarding this past posts :https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saruman Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 18 hours ago, iriki said: Found an interesting post today regarding this past posts : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html Now to find an article titled, 32% percent of US households decided it would be a good idea to spend thousands on LEGO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
$20 on joe vs dan Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Saruman said: Now to find an article titled, 32% percent of US households decided it would be a good idea to spend thousands on LEGO. a think-tank (some ivy league) posted that over 60% were making more from collecting Unemployment than working their regular jobs...and a whopping 28% made almost double their regular salary...so given that many households, especially in the lower tax brackets tend to live check to check...I would imagine quite a few are fueling the LEGO craze. Anecdotally, I've had two instances of ebay buyers buying $400+ sets...but also shared that they lost their jobs recently in our messaging (refer to Fruitcake thread for details)...and I am equivalent to quill shrimp as a reseller. the govment should just call the bill what it is: "The LEGO resellers bailout bill" Edited July 13, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minicoopers11 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said: a think-tank (some ivy league) posted that over 60% were making more from collecting Unemployment than working their regular jobs...and a whopping 28% made almost double their regular salary...so given that many households, especially in the lower tax brackets tend to live check to check...I would imagine quite a few are fueling the LEGO craze. Anecdotally, I've had two instances of ebay buyers buying $400+ sets...but also shared that they lost their jobs recently in our messaging (refer to Fruitcake thread for details)...and I am equivalent to quill shrimp as a reseller. the govment should just call the bill what it is: "The LEGO resellers bailout bill" Works for me. We need an extension! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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