Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[$20 on joe vs dan]

9 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

That is why you stick with Jyn and/or Rey buildables. Their values are pandemic-proof 

my kid is only 8...give it a couple more years before I dislike his friends that much

[MotorCityMuscle]

tie fighter helmets back in stock at Target if anyone needs one. guaranteed to come beat to ****. 

[landphieran]

I'm curious how long these recent set replenishment's will hold up. If they last less then a few weeks this winter is going to be a gold mine.

[TheBrickClique]

43 minutes ago, landphieran said:

I'm curious how long these recent set replenishment's will hold up. If they last less then a few weeks this winter is going to be a gold mine.

I’ve been too busy to look at many of the manufacturing codes on the new sets. I think one was WW09 so early March. If we see a lot of sets from early in the year, then it might not last long once they relabel and sell out of their stockpile. If it’s a recent code, then it could be around for awhile. 
 

[enotoga]

Looks like Lego is finally shipping me my new Haunted House.  I expected the order to get canceled.  Too bad it's only one.  I wonder if I should sell it now.   The market is going to be flooded with 10273's in a couple months, right?????? 

[lego2lego]

On 6/18/2020 at 4:33 PM, joch29 said:

treehouse 17S0

 

On 6/18/2020 at 5:58 PM, thedingman5 said:

Same here.  And my Hogwarts castle was 15S0.

I received my treehouse, which is sold by amazon. The seal does NOT have code. Is this something I should worry about? 

[landphieran]

Do people anticipate sales this year for Lego sets? 

I've started adding to my year end inventory a bit early this year. I've added 20% of my year end inventory goals on expected retiring targets at discounts of 10-20%. 
Bought a chunk of short term and medium term flips ranging from 0-20% discounts.

My best guess this year is that early fall we will see some discounts of 20-25% but i don't expect them to last long. With purchasing restrictions in place its no longer as easy to grab 100's of a set at a great price. I'm expecting lagging production runs through Christmas and afterwards. I've never purchased so many sets at near RRP and it feels really wrong. But my gut instinct tells me it's the right move.

 

[Dark Helmet]

1 minute ago, landphieran said:

Do people anticipate sales this year for Lego sets? 

I've started adding to my year end inventory a bit early this year. I've added 20% of my year end inventory goals on expected retiring targets at discounts of 10-20%. 
Bought a chunk of short term and medium term flips ranging from 0-20% discounts.

My best guess this year is that early fall we will see some discounts of 20-25% but i don't expect them to last long. With purchasing restrictions in place its no longer as easy to grab 100's of a set at a great price. I'm expecting lagging production runs through Christmas and afterwards. I've never purchased so many sets at near RRP and it feels really wrong. But my gut instinct tells me it's the right move.

 

hard to tell. Amazon analytics is prob going crazy. All of these new sets that have just been released but just OOS are going way above MSRP. Why would they put any on discount when they know it sells higher than MSRP. 

It will be awhile before everything normalizes to standard 20% off

[dennugsmello]

UPDATE Post. Here is some updated prices. Price change period April 6th -  June 29th. 

 

 

                                                            April 6^th – Jun 29th

Ninjago City 70620 –                    $300 - $500  /  $500 - $600

Ninjago City Docks 70657 –        $309 – $339 – /    $350 - $400

Jokers Manor 70922 –                  $450 - $500      /    $550 - $600

Silent Mary 71042 –                     $229 - $250  - /      $340-  $400

Brick Bank 10251 -                      $240 - $400 – /     $425 - $450

Detectives Office 10246 -            $300 - $400 – /     $380 -$400

Old Fishing Store 21310 -            $310 - $359 – /      $350 - $390

Technic Porsche 911 42056 -       $350 - $450 – /    $525 - $600

MC Mountain Cave 21137 -        $479 - $599 – /       $650 - $670

SW Cloud City 75222 -                $400 - $700 – /      $500 - $600

Ninjago Dest Bounty 70618        $229 - $250 – /      $260 - $290

Creator Ferris Wheel 10247         $350 - $400 - /      $400 - $450

MC The Farm Cottage 21144      $109 – 149 – /      $159 - $179

MC skeleton Attack  21146         $79 - $95    -  /     $100 - $130

MC Waterfall Base 21134           $92 – $120   - /    $110 -  $120

MC Ocean Monument 21136       $140 - $170  - /  $150 - $190

Elves Healing Hideout 41187       $75 - $99  - /       $100

Elves Tree Bat 41196                    $74 - $90  - /       $90 - $100

Elves Earth Fox 41194                  $70 - $90 -  /       $130- $140

Elves Noctura SD 41195              $64 - $74 -  /       $100 - $110

 

[Darth_Raichu]

I hate to admit it, but operating in "Christmas mode" (fulfilling several orders every day) during summer is wearing me down.  I may need to shift to undercutting other sellers via FBA instead

Or maybe I am just getting too old for this game

[cladner]

3 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

I hate to admit it, but operating in "Christmas mode" (fulfilling several orders every day) during summer is wearing me down.  I may need to shift to undercutting other sellers via FBA instead

Or maybe I am just getting too old for this game

geezer.  don't you have some boxes to pre-fab instead of "moderating"?

[Darth_Raichu]

12 minutes ago, cladner said:

geezer.  don't you have some boxes to pre-fab instead of "moderating"?

"Moderating"? Nah. They only page me when people start complaining about out of topic posts on Daily Deals thread  

[$20 on joe vs dan]

I think the Croc provides some useful data for QFLL. Initially (prior to going TOOS) seems like it's a 60 day delay form LEGO Shop at Home on backorders from the date of release.

So 2 months seems to be the lag between LEGO identifying needing more production and becoming available again.

this is grossly simplified, but I am hoping that the vets here could chime in on whether a 2 month lag sounds about right.  Basically give QFLL a "window" to operate in.

[legorunner]

6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

So 2 months seems to be the lag between LEGO identifying needing more production and becoming available again

I'm sure others have even more specific info, but 60 days is often the amount of time that they state, but it can always come back sooner. I've had sets over the years ship at least a couple of weeks earlier than initially promised. 

[landphieran]

19 minutes ago, legorunner said:

I'm sure others have even more specific info, but 60 days is often the amount of time that they state, but it can always come back sooner. I've had sets over the years ship at least a couple of weeks earlier than initially promised. 

LEGO is a very conservative company and will often put worse case scenario timelines for production. 

This winter is going to be extremely interesting. A lot of shopping shifted to online sales over the past 10 years but this year it will be an extreme shift. The freight companies are backed up like crazy and it will only get worse. Amazon appears to be shipping items directly from LEGO warehouses given how many boxes have shown up in LEGO branded boxes.

I could imagine a world where LEGO uses Amazon as a store front and logistics company to fulfill its back order of sets instead of finding freight companies to distribute them to B&M stores. Amazon is poised to be a crusher in times like this. They built the most efficient fulfillment system in existence and continue to be flexible and innovate. I would expect non traditional fulfillment and stock fluctuations.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

7 minutes ago, landphieran said:

LEGO is a very conservative company and will often put worse case scenario timelines for production. 

This winter is going to be extremely interesting. A lot of shopping shifted to online sales over the past 10 years but this year it will be an extreme shift. The freight companies are backed up like crazy and it will only get worse. Amazon appears to be shipping items directly from LEGO warehouses given how many boxes have shown up in LEGO branded boxes.

I could imagine a world where LEGO uses Amazon as a store front and logistics company to fulfill its back order of sets instead of finding freight companies to distribute them to B&M stores. Amazon is poised to be a crusher in times like this. They built the most efficient fulfillment system in existence and continue to be flexible and innovate. I would expect non traditional fulfillment and stock fluctuations.

so how I read that is...resellers w/ stock in hand will be positioned rather nicely for local (inperson) sales when the time sensitive Christmas crunch inevitably occurs .  Not only would buyers be guaranteed getting the product but also have assurances on box quality for gifting.

so the take home lesson is to stock up now before supply chain AND SHIPPING ISSUES delay fall purchases.

[Darth_Raichu]

50 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

this is grossly simplified, but I am hoping that the vets here could chime in on whether a 2 month lag sounds about right.  Basically give QFLL a "window" to operate in.

CCP virus threw a monkey wrench to any pattern I have seen from the past 6-7 years.  Past performance was useless and it gave me a headache trying to predict the future with so many moving variables

[$20 on joe vs dan]

16 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

CCP virus threw a monkey wrench to any pattern I have seen from the past 6-7 years.  Past performance was useless and it gave me a headache trying to predict the future with so many moving variables

it's the point of this thread...should be relabeled: "How to read CV trend tea leaves"

[$20 on joe vs dan]

FYI: the LEGO plant in Mexico is in the Monterrey region:

https://www.vallartadaily.com/mexico-reverses-course-on-some-reopening-as-covid-19-continues-to-spread/

Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by about 6,740 newly confirmed cases Friday for a second straight day, while 654 more deaths raised the country’s total to 29,843.

The number of deaths is the sixth-highest highest in the world, and Mexico is just a few dozen from overtaking France for the fifth-highest death toll, though Mexico’s population is about double that of France.

The continued increase in cases and deaths has stalled Mexico’s planned re-opening. The northern border state of Nuevo Leon, home to the city of Monterrey, declared a weekend curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

[House Schubert]

4 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

FYI: the LEGO plant in Mexico is in the Monterrey region:

https://www.vallartadaily.com/mexico-reverses-course-on-some-reopening-as-covid-19-continues-to-spread/

Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by about 6,740 newly confirmed cases Friday for a second straight day, while 654 more deaths raised the country’s total to 29,843.

The number of deaths is the sixth-highest highest in the world, and Mexico is just a few dozen from overtaking France for the fifth-highest death toll, though Mexico’s population is about double that of France.

The continued increase in cases and deaths has stalled Mexico’s planned re-opening. The northern border state of Nuevo Leon, home to the city of Monterrey, declared a weekend curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

 

Which leads me to believe... BUY BUY BUY!!! RRP is the new 50% off.   I can't imagine things will get better in time for the Q4 ramp up... which should be happening nowish.

Imagine if they shut it down again...

[Darth_Raichu]

8 hours ago, House Schubert said:

 

Which leads me to believe... BUY BUY BUY!!! RRP is the new 50% off.   I can't imagine things will get better in time for the Q4 ramp up... which should be happening nowish.

Imagine if they shut it down again...

Somebody with more talents than I, create a Youtube video out of this  (Sing it to the tune of "Kung Fu Fighting")

Everybody is doing the quick flipping
Grabbing all deals like lightning
Although the future is a little bit frightening
People still love order fulfilling

[iriki]

I have a feeling the bubble may burst soon. I'm a very small time seller, but have already seen a pretty big downturn over the past week or so. When folks were getting stimulus checks and assuming everything would just return to normal in 30-60 days, it was gravy train time. Now that the economic reality is setting in, I think we're going to see some serious belt tightening. Just my two cents....hope I'm wrong!

Found an interesting post today regarding this past posts :

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

[Saruman]

18 hours ago, iriki said:

Found an interesting post today regarding this past posts :

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

Now to find an article titled, 32% percent of US households decided it would be a good idea to spend thousands on LEGO.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

6 minutes ago, Saruman said:

Now to find an article titled, 32% percent of US households decided it would be a good idea to spend thousands on LEGO.

a think-tank (some ivy league) posted that over 60% were making more from collecting Unemployment than working their regular jobs...and a whopping 28% made almost double their regular salary...so given that many households, especially in the lower tax brackets tend to live check to check...I would imagine quite a few are fueling the LEGO craze.  Anecdotally, I've had two instances of ebay buyers buying $400+ sets...but also shared that they lost their jobs recently in our messaging (refer to Fruitcake thread for details)...and I am equivalent to quill shrimp as a reseller.

the govment should just call the bill what it is: "The LEGO resellers bailout bill"

Edited July 13, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[minicoopers11]

44 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

a think-tank (some ivy league) posted that over 60% were making more from collecting Unemployment than working their regular jobs...and a whopping 28% made almost double their regular salary...so given that many households, especially in the lower tax brackets tend to live check to check...I would imagine quite a few are fueling the LEGO craze.  Anecdotally, I've had two instances of ebay buyers buying $400+ sets...but also shared that they lost their jobs recently in our messaging (refer to Fruitcake thread for details)...and I am equivalent to quill shrimp as a reseller.

the govment should just call the bill what it is: "The LEGO resellers bailout bill"

Works for me. We need an extension!