Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[odysea11]

3 hours ago, dennugsmello said:

I think a massive restock is incoming around August/September. Enough supply to eliminate quick depletions. So far, all the sets flowing into the US have been Euro imports. Its just a matter of time before the Mexico sets hits the shelves. Once that supply enters the market, MSRP panic buying will slow among resellers. I predict high supply levels, of all sets,  as long as another shutdown does not happen.  

 

I agree and respectfully disagree. I do believe that the inevitable restock is coming now that Mexico is open, but I'm not sure about the high supply levels going into the season. It is going to take some time just to get back to regular stock levels with the short window given. IMO, I don't see any way that we will have high levels of all sets in that short amount of time. I do, however,  believe that there will be unmatched opportunity this Christmas if you are positioned correctly.

[KShine]

Supply will not catch up for Christmas, there is just no way.

To even come close, I expect that many sets (that had a planned ending this year) will simply not be produced going forward.

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, KShine said:

Supply will not catch up for Christmas, there is just no way.

To even come close, I expect that many sets (that had a planned ending this year) will simply not be produced going forward.

Right.  The question becomes how do we maximize profit given the current circumstances.  

[KShine]

8 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Right.  The question becomes how do we maximize profit given the current circumstances.  

I think it should be very hard to go wrong this Christmas.

Without the actual LEGO game plan, it's impossible to be perfect - but hitting winners should be fairly easy (provided that you have inventory). 

[RightDwigt]

4 minutes ago, KShine said:

I think it should be very hard to go wrong this Christmas.

Without the actual LEGO game plan, it's impossible to be perfect - but hitting winners should be fairly easy (provided that you have inventory). 

So assuming we all have relative freedom in the next couple months to stock up on said inventory, is there a general consensus on what might do well or usually does best around the cold weather and holidays? I'm partial to Star wars because that's where I started, but I've also scratched into the Harry Potter theme and actually have mostly HP at the moment. It's also easier to keep track of sets that you're personally interested in. It seems like the last round of HP sets will retire soon too? I'm asking.

That being said, thoughts on other themes? It also seems that in the recent past people are more and more willing to drop big bucks for the larger sets, is there any opinion on whether to go big or go smaller with higher volume?

[redcell]

5 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

good points for sure...but this one may be a bit different.  Whereas I do not doubt the power of greed that provides the predictability of market forces...since the purchase limitations are also limiting the stock of the resellers...they are now holding 1 or 2 of an item whereas before they would have 10 to 20...they may not readily sell for lower...and may be more motivated to hold-out for Christmas.  this phenomenon times the hundreds to thousands of individual reseller may be enough to with-hold stock of key sets (despite restock) and keep prices high.

You're overthinking things.  What's happening now is all normal supply and demand.  What's different now is that COVID has scrambled the relationship between the two in the markets for Lego (both primary and secondary for both current and retired sets) by (1) disrupting the normal pattern of people's lives and keeping them home more, which led to an increase in demand,  and (2) disrupting normal manufacturing and distribution channels, which drove a decrease in supply in a variety of ways (e.g, Lego Mexico plant shut down, Amazon shut down of incoming FBA shipments of non-essentials, etc.).  Are there resellers out there who are thinking like you project?  Sure, but there are plenty of others like me that are hedging their bets by selling some stock now and holding some back for xmas.  I am betting that prices stay high and increase (at least for sets already past EOL) because a lot of the inventory that would have been sold later in the year has already been sold or is being sold to take advantage of high prices.  That is likely to depress supply when xmas rolls around, which will cause prices to stay high.   

 

[ravenb99]

I would buy whatever toys or LEGO or whatever you want to resell for Xmas as often as you can at whatever price you like now and as it comes available here and there.   Take off your LEGO blinders and analyze everything out there cause **** is messed up on a lot of other stuff as well.  Product is all jacked up and 2 dept stores we deal with still haven't opened their liquidation sides even though their stores are open.  Just cause stuff is open as well it is isn't anywhere near capacity and most stores are still running minimal staff.  Everything is a mess in retail right now and it's not going to clear up anytime soon.  

[redcell]

2 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

I would buy whatever toys or LEGO or whatever you want to resell for Xmas as often as you can at whatever price you like now and as it comes available here and there.   Take off your LEGO blinders and analyze everything out there cause **** is messed up on a lot of other stuff as well.  Product is all jacked up and 2 dept stores we deal with still haven't opened their liquidation sides even though their stores are open.  Just cause stuff is open as well it is isn't anywhere near capacity and most stores are still running minimal staff.  Everything is a mess in retail right now and it's not going to clear up anytime soon.  

Take my Lego blinders off???  Never.  If I did that, next thing you know, I'd probably running all over the damn place hunting crap with that kid Ryan on it.

[ravenb99]

9 minutes ago, redcell said:

Take my Lego blinders off???  Never.  If I did that, next thing you know, I'd probably running all over the damn place hunting crap with that kid Ryan on it.

Ryan's crap is a party...

[Darth_Raichu]

36 minutes ago, KShine said:

I think it should be very hard to go wrong this Christmas.

Without the actual LEGO game plan, it's impossible to be perfect - but hitting winners should be fairly easy (provided that you have inventory). 

I don't disagree with you.  I am a fundamentally greedy SOB so I want my $ buy-in to bring me more than $ profit, I want 2x$ or even 3x$

[$20 on joe vs dan]

interesting that the big hogwarts have come back in limited quantities (AMZ) yet nothing for the Big Disney castle.

Treehouse back at multiple outlets including LEGO Shop at Home

...Using my great powers of deduction I'm saying the sets of brown shades are coming back

[scatttcat]

Curious what people's approach with is on Anakins Starfighter (75214) is? I keep seeing people post how its back in stock via the Daily Deals, are people quick flipping this? Or was this rumored to retire soon?

I am sure this holiday will be good for many sets, but I am curious why this one seems popular with 75281 Anakin's Jedi Interceptor coming out soon.

I guess that leads me to believe people are quick flipping them and not sitting on them for holiday?

[$20 on joe vs dan]

reminder to folks...the $600/week unemployment benefit (from Cares Act) expires end of July.

read an article that says between 40% to 60% of unemployed collecting benefits are making more than if they were working....and about half don't realize it's supposed to end.

The headlines are coming that will show what most employers are experiencing...can't compete w/ free cash and "safety of staying home"...any thinking Congress is going to extend that benefit past July is going to be let down.

 

There is a hammer that's about to fall...will have obvious impacts on the LEGO resell market.

[exciter1]

24 minutes ago, scatttcat said:

Curious what people's approach with is on Anakins Starfighter (75214) is? I keep seeing people post how its back in stock via the Daily Deals, are people quick flipping this? Or was this rumored to retire soon?

I am sure this holiday will be good for many sets, but I am curious why this one seems popular with 75281 Anakin's Jedi Interceptor coming out soon.

I guess that leads me to believe people are quick flipping them and not sitting on them for holiday?

Have you ever been a reseller of Star Wars Starfighters before?  Look at the past trends.

[scatttcat]

Have you ever been a reseller of Star Wars Starfighters before?  Look at the past trends.

No I haven’t. Only 4 years into this really and I don’t dabble too much with Star Wars. Thats a good point though.

[zaphoid]

17 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

The headlines are coming that will show what most employers are experiencing...can't compete w/ free cash and "safety of staying home"...any thinking Congress is going to extend that benefit past July is going to be let down.

Here in Texas they're about to start requiring people on unemployment to start looking for work again as part of continued receiving of benefits.  As far as an extension (and by no means am I attempting to derail the tread or start anything), I believe the Republicans will wait to see how they are polling in July before deciding on an extension.

Edited June 17, 2020 by zaphoid

[$20 on joe vs dan]

[speculation...click away if you need facts only]

Another way to look at the restock slowly filtering in on Amazon and other venues:

Clearly only certain sets are being produced/stickered & shipped, etc...for example the big hogwarts and stranger things.  Could this mean after this initial restock period then another series of sets will get restocked?  Which would suggest these current ones will become scarce again...around Christmas?

I think the general thinking is that all the sets will get restocked...eventually...but really what QFLL resellers only care about is the when and which sets.

[Pseudoty]

2 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

[speculation...click away if you need facts only]

Another way to look at the restock slowly filtering in on Amazon and other venues:

Clearly only certain sets are being produced/stickered & shipped, etc...for example the big hogwarts and stranger things.  Could this mean after this initial restock period then another series of sets will get restocked?  Which would suggest these current ones will become scarce again...around Christmas?

I think the general thinking is that all the sets will get restocked...eventually...but really what QFLL resellers only care about is the when and which sets.

Are they being produced or just reallocated?  What are the seal codes on those stickered sets?

[joch29]

2 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Are they being produced or just reallocated?  What are the seal codes on those stickered sets?

treehouse 17S0

[thedingman5]

1 hour ago, joch29 said:

treehouse 17S0

Same here.  And my Hogwarts castle was 15S0.

[redcell]

Production is picking back up. I got a bunch of case packs today that were manufactured in Mexico last month so they're filling the pipeline back up.

[scurt1s]

Just now, redcell said:

Production is picking back up. I got a bunch of case packs today that were manufactured in Mexico last month so they're filling the pipeline back up.

Yea I think the window is closing for lots of stuff to do quick flips. Great hall has been up on lego today. Lunar lander is pretty common. 

[Voltron]

I was hoping coronavirus would help 75099 Rey's Speeder, guess I'll still be stuck with selling these barely over RRP for the next 5 years

[redcell]

I was hoping coronavirus would help 75099 Rey's Speeder, guess I'll still be stuck with selling these barely over RRP for the next 5 years

Dump them as fast as possible and move on. You are losing money everyday you hold onto a set that appreciates as poorly as Rey's Speeder. One of the worst mistakes you can make reselling is hoping that set that hasn't performed well will rebound.

[Voltron]

25 minutes ago, redcell said:

31 minutes ago, Voltron86 said:

I was hoping coronavirus would help 75099 Rey's Speeder, guess I'll still be stuck with selling these barely over RRP for the next 5 years

Dump them as fast as possible and move on. You are losing money everyday you hold onto a set that appreciates as poorly as Rey's Speeder. One of the worst mistakes you can make reselling is hoping that set that hasn't performed well will rebound.

Thanks for that, I think that's the kick up the rear end I need to just unload all of the sets that haven't shown potential. I knew it was the logical thing to do, but just kept on hoping some sets might break out.

Even after all of these years, I'm still glad there's a community here who you can throw ideas / get tips off, every day a school day.