Quarantine Trends - LEGO Online Selling Prices

[zaphoid]

1 minute ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

getting a feeling things are cooling down sales-wise

my sales died a week ago

[glostik]

Im still getting multiple orders a day so its still hot on my end

[BillyBricks]

26 minutes ago, glostik said:

Im still getting multiple orders a day so its still hot on my end

Same. I shipped out 7 items today. I didn't sell 7 items all of last May (definitely small-timer, here). 

[enotoga]

A wise old antique dealer once said - "regardless of age, good stuff stays good......and junk stays junk".

This saying seems to apply to my quarantine Lego sales.  My junk stopped selling a few weeks ago. 

 

[Sozial]

2 hours ago, zaphoid said:

my sales died a week ago

Here sales are going down as well. But guys: that was like a christmas time. And I for sure take two christmas times a year for sure.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Sozial

[zmnnch]

I am FBM and  sales went down a bit after the Amazon re-starting the FBA shipments a  few weeks ago. Saw an influx of FBA seller restocked. A few weeks go by now and FBM sales seems to pickup a little bit after the FBA stocks dried up.

[Pseudoty]

I am still killing it although it did take me around 4 hours yesterday boxing up sales. 

[enotoga]

On 5/18/2020 at 10:29 AM, dennugsmello said:

Could be.

Or the reseller supply of large sets gets thinned out by binge purchasers leaving a limited supply of large sets for collectors in the future. Those who hold may see greater returns. It will be interesting to observe the Lego game in an uncertain future. Win or lose boys, make your bets. 

I'm in agreement with this line of thinking.  The quarantine wiped out a ton of big set inventory, and there are several catalysts that have recently increased interest in sets like modulars.   How Lego will ultimately get back to normal is still a big unknown.   I'm betting on continued price increases over the next 3 years. 

And even when I'm wrong, Lego is still a fun buy and hold investment.  But I wouldn't mind if that last Pirate's Chess Set found a buyer.

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by enotoga

[exracer327]

4 hours ago, zaphoid said:

my sales died a week ago

I've been watching prices on ebay auctions and they're definitely dropping.  Could have been timing, but with states opening up and a return to spring/summer, I'm sure we'll see the typical summer slowdown.

I admit, I shipped the last two sets I was selling this morning.

[KShine]

Still going strong - Overall views topped out right about the time people started "opening up", but they are still more than double the pre-corona avg.

Until production/distribution starts/catches up again - I would expect things to stay crazy busy.

As someone mentioned, as your stock dries up, so will those sales - But people are still buying from whomever has the supply.

[benjamin4172]

Y´all think there is no second wave? I guess by October we start again -and go in a phase with "stay at home" due to corona and Xmas.

[Sauromosis]

1 hour ago, benjamin4172 said:

Y´all think there is no second wave? I guess by October we start again -and go in a phase with "stay at home" due to corona and Xmas.

Honestly? I think it's 50/50. The fall is when all viruses start coming back and making people sick. This will be one of them but will it be as virulent as it has been? We don't know but everyone who already got it should have antibodies to protect themselves.

[Mark Twain]

Honestly? I think it's 50/50. The fall is when all viruses start coming back and making people sick. This will be one of them but will it be as virulent as it has been? We don't know but everyone who already got it should have antibodies to protect themselves.

They don’t know if the antibodies last for longer than a handful of months and the traditional flu mixed with Covid combined with a stir crazy population is going to be hell.

One issue that I think may impact buyers is how uncertain white collar folks feel about their job security going forward. Some people are hitting up vacation spots like usual, but most of the people I know are hunkering down this summer. Part of it is fear of the virus the other part is wanting to save cash in case someone gets laid off. Wall Street doesn’t seem to care about this and is acting like a werewolf on cocaine but I’m not betting on real people following.

[scurt1s]

It's insane, kohls and macys are up like 25% in last 2 days. Macy's probably won't even exist in 5 years. My sales have dropped off a bit in the last week or so. Definitely more people on the roads and some sets are getting back onto retailer sites.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 minute ago, Mark Twain said:

They don’t know if the antibodies last for longer than a handful of months and the traditional flu mixed with Covid combined with a stir crazy population is going to be hell.

One issue that I think may impact buyers is how uncertain white collar folks feel about their job security going forward. Some people are hitting up vacation spots like usual, but most of the people I know are hunkering down this summer. Part of it is fear of the virus the other part is wanting to save cash in case someone gets laid off. Wall Street doesn’t seem to care about this and is acting like a werewolf on cocaine but I’m not betting on real people following.

 

1 hour ago, sauromosis said:

Honestly? I think it's 50/50. The fall is when all viruses start coming back and making people sick. This will be one of them but will it be as virulent as it has been? We don't know but everyone who already got it should have antibodies to protect themselves.

there's already two documented strains (East Coast [from Europe] and West Coast [from Asia]) not sure if there will be new strains like the flu with every season.

Most folks around me are more afraid of flying than anything else in terms of travel plans.

25% of documented workers in CA on unemployment, 20%  Nationwide...things will get a lot worse I expect...I pulled out of my stock market positions today.

[enotoga]

17 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

 

there's already two documented strains (East Coast [from Europe] and West Coast [from Asia]) not sure if there will be new strains like the flu with every season.

Most folks around me are more afraid of flying than anything else in terms of travel plans.

25% of documented workers in CA on unemployment, 20%  Nationwide...things will get a lot worse I expect...I pulled out of my stock market positions today.

Or, it could be a mistake to bet against humans to succeed in doing what they do best.  Current pent-up demand seems to be off the charts.  From this point forward, we could see a steadily dropping unemployment rate - one weekly catalyst that will continue fueling optimism.  Today's huge unemployment numbers could end up working to the market's advantage, as the weekly numbers improve.  But I'll still be depressed for failing to be more aggressive in March at DOW 18,500.   

[Sauromosis]

I wouldn't worry about strains until we have more info. And as far as worry there's a human limit to how long you can stay inside worrying. I've about reached mine. The cure can be worse than the disease if we let it.

[ravenb99]

8 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

I wouldn't worry about strains until we have more info. And as far as worry there's a human limit to how long you can stay inside worrying. I've about reached mine. The cure can be worse than the disease if we let it.

Amen...  I thought I saw you in one of those Ozark lake pics...Only one person I know can do the Segel dance like that.

[Sauromosis]

31 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

Amen...  I thought I saw you in one of those Ozark lake pics...Only one person I know can do the Segel dance like that.

Lol, I do want to wait for 2 weeks and see how those maniacs fare. 

[ravenb99]

23 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

Lol, I do want to wait for 2 weeks and see how those maniacs fare. 

Yeah should be interesting.  Wasn't just there. Basically anywhere with water was slammed this weekend.  

[Sauromosis]

Yep, I'll be very curious because if we don't see a large spike from Memorial Day then basically it's really getting better and the virus is not as prevalent as in March.

[KShine]

Things were less dangerous (in regards to your chances of getting the virus) for most of the world at the time of the shutdowns then they are now for the reopenings.

[Pseudoty]

Well USPS is slowly grinding to a halt. I have Many larger sets that will Be hitting the two week mark with no delivery. Many smaller items where it seems scanning of first class mail is a thing of the past. Supposedly the only way you can still get guaranteed on time delivery is to pay the premium for express (can anyone confirm)?  Not sure if more people are going the express route or if the backlog of priority or decreased staffing are the contributing factors but at what point do the piles of boxes become unsurmountable. I know priority is not guaranteed delivery but still paying for the “premium” service and not getting it is bothersome. 

[jerphisch]

58 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Well USPS is slowly grinding to a halt. I have Many larger sets that will Be hitting the two week mark with no delivery. Many smaller items where it seems scanning of first class mail is a thing of the past. Supposedly the only way you can still get guaranteed on time delivery is to pay the premium for express (can anyone confirm)?  Not sure if more people are going the express route or if the backlog of priority or decreased staffing are the contributing factors but at what point do the piles of boxes become unsurmountable. I know priority is not guaranteed delivery but still paying for the “premium” service and not getting it is bothersome. 

It's actually improved for me over the last couple of weeks.  My larger packages were taking ~2 weeks mid April to mid May and they are now down to 1.  Typically items go from here to Denver the same night they are shipped and then on a plane to next distribution center and instead they were being trucked to places like Omaha or Kansas City.  I'm not expecting that improvement to continue as the Denver facility seems to have an outbreak, the city tried to shut it down but so far they've refused.

[Darth_Raichu]

Business as usual with USPS.  Although I have not used USPS to send modular sized boxes in a while just because UPS & Fedex are cheaper