LEGO 2012 PRESS RELEASE...EXCELLENT NEWS FOR INVESTORS!!!

[Tilted]

I honestly don't think that women will be looking to buy these sets 30 or 40 years from now but I may be wrong. I don't mean to offend anyone but, maybe due to the fact that women tend to live vicariously through their children, men turn to collecting at a much bigger rate. That said, Friends is a great line that sold tremendously well over the holidays. It won the toy of the year award! I think it's a good short-term investment but long-term there are better alternatives out there.

[Talon]

Barbie dolls.

Excellent point!

[Tilted]

Excellent point!

I wouldn't be surprised if most barbie doll collectors were men. Ever thought of that?

[Alcarin]

Excellent point!

I wouldn't be surprised if most barbie doll collectors were men. Ever thought of that?

Even more excellent point

Its good that we do not agree to have some constructive debate going on. And another user did put another valid point imo (about haunted house vs olivia houses) I think Friends set overall will do worse than Stuff like Taj Mahal, Vampire Castle, Haunted House...

Actually I think they will do worse than LOTR sets aswell (within 2-3 years) But thats just my thinking, i might be completely off, but i just DO NOT see that girls 12 today would go and buy MISB sets of Friends when they go in their 30s... I have a cousin at 14 she played with LEGO and now its sitting in their basement for her children (if she will have them) she does not care for them she never cared alot, she played though.

Majority of girls either those my age (24) or those my cousin age (14) when i mention LEGO or even colelcting they say I am a kid (which i do not mind)

So the question is, why would parents buy Friends theme from 2013 in 2015 (granted Id say LEGO will make other similar sets) for their daughters. I see Friends = City... why would i want to buy old Police station if I can get new one for retail...

[pickleboy]

Excellent point!

I wouldn't be surprised if most barbie doll collectors were men. Ever thought of that?

Even more excellent point

why would i want to buy old Police station if I can get new one for retail...

The same thing can be said for just about any collectors item/toy.

I would be willing to bet without doing any research that the majority of barbie doll collectors are not men.

[Alcarin]

Excellent point!

I wouldn't be surprised if most barbie doll collectors were men. Ever thought of that?

Even more excellent point

why would i want to buy old Police station if I can get new one for retail...

The same thing can be said for just about any collectors item/toy.

I would be willing to bet without doing any research that the majority of barbie doll collectors are not men.

You are right however, majority of police stations I would say are bought for actual children (who play with them) while many more SW/LOTR etc sets are bought for collecting .

Except for occasional City builders, i rarely see people collecting Fire Stations for display, but displaying classic Black Knights Castle is completely different sight than a police/fire station.

It seems Friends/City/''Ninjago''/''Chima'' are mostly children sets and i know from my experience if i was a father and my son would ask me for police station id buy the newest one not the vintage from xxxx year

Its my view on things

I just see value of old stuff for display (Castle, SW, Modulars) but i dont see Old city stuff begin preffered because police station is police station, castle is not just castle.

[Ed Mack]

I honestly don't think that women will be looking to buy these sets 30 or 40 years from now but I may be wrong.

I don't mean to offend anyone but, maybe due to the fact that women tend to live vicariously through their children, men turn to collecting at a much bigger rate.

That said, Friends is a great line that sold tremendously well over the holidays. It won the toy of the year award!

I think it's a good short-term investment but long-term there are better alternatives out there.

Why worry about long term when you can flip these set in the short term better than most other themes? I never said to keep a set 30 years. My point is that you should treat these sets similarly to the other popular themes...not differently. There is no guarantee for any set to appreciate, but if it is popular to start, I'll take my chances on future growth.

[Ed Mack]

Speaking of Barbie Dolls, the vast majority of collectors are women...and they are serious collectors. Some Barbie Dolls go for $20,000.00 or more. Barbie Doll collecting is more popular than LEGO collecting. Look at the eBay listings and that will show consistently more activity for dolls than bricks. So if women and girls can be serious collectors of dolls, they can be serious collectors of bricks as well.

[emes]

Many of you are spending way too much time trying to figure out why something can't be profitable, instead of just making a profit off of it. e.***. : http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHAPSTICK-Candy-Cane-Limited-Edition-Holiday-Christmas-Lip-Balm-New-Chap-Stick-/380581440903?pt=US_Makeup_Lips&hash=item589c6bed87 (that's not my eBay id BTW). I have 300 of those that my wife bought at .49 each. Who would think there would be a market for Candy Cane Chapstick? Who cares as long as a profit can be made?? I've yet to make less than 30% profit on any Friends set that I've sold, and I've sold many, and on some Friends items I've made way more than my target rate of return. Buying and flipping is not always about something that you think is cool. In fact, it's rarely about that. Rather, it's about what a particular market demands. I have a room in my house that has 5x as many cosmetics as the typical WalMart. I didn't buy them because I think they're cool... (my wife might think cosmetics are cool, but she likes making a return as much as I do.)

[stephen_rockefeller]

Many of you are spending way too much time trying to figure out why something can't be profitable, instead of just making a profit off of it.

e.g. : http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHAPSTICK-Candy-Cane-Limited-Edition-Holiday-Christmas-Lip-Balm-New-Chap-Stick-/380581440903?pt=US_Makeup_Lips&hash=item589c6bed87

(that's not my eBay id BTW). I have 300 of those that my wife bought at .49 each. Who would think there would be a market for Candy Cane Chapstick? Who cares as long as a profit can be made??

I've yet to make less than 30% profit on any Friends set that I've sold, and I've sold many, and on some Friends items I've made way more than my target rate of return.

Buying and flipping is not always about something that you think is cool. In fact, it's rarely about that. Rather, it's about what a particular market demands.

I have a room in my house that has 5x as many cosmetics as the typical WalMart. I didn't buy them because I think they're cool... (my wife might think cosmetics are cool, but she likes making a return as much as I do.)

This post is great!!!!!!

[TheDarkness]

Many of you are spending way too much time trying to figure out why something can't be profitable, instead of just making a profit off of it.

e.***. : http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHAPSTICK-Candy-Cane-Limited-Edition-Holiday-Christmas-Lip-Balm-New-Chap-Stick-/380581440903?pt=US_Makeup_Lips&hash=item589c6bed87

(that's not my eBay id BTW). I have 300 of those that my wife bought at .49 each. Who would think there would be a market for Candy Cane Chapstick? Who cares as long as a profit can be made??

I've yet to make less than 30% profit on any Friends set that I've sold, and I've sold many, and on some Friends items I've made way more than my target rate of return.

Buying and flipping is not always about something that you think is cool. In fact, it's rarely about that. Rather, it's about what a particular market demands.

I have a room in my house that has 5x as many cosmetics as the typical WalMart. I didn't buy them because I think they're cool... (my wife might think cosmetics are cool, but she likes making a return as much as I do.)

I think this is the key. I use this method myself, sometimes too well and don't hang onto sets that become discontinued.

It all comes down to what you are happy with as a return.

Personally, I don't know if the Friends line will be as profitable once a few hit EOL, and for that, I am not risking it. Yet I will still purchase them to resell straight away with the current returns they can earn.

[Ed Mack]

Really, I would like no one to buy Friends sets to invest in, so my Friends sets would increase in value. For that matter, don't buy Ninjago or Chima sets either. I think everyone should think alike and buy some more Monster Fighters and Modulars. ;-)

[TheOrcKing]

LEGO underestimated the popularity of the Friends theme, as did many investors(not me). I knew, as soon as I saw the quality of the sets that it would be a hit. The feminists and their complaints about the theme only brought more attention to it. To say there is no long term value in these sets has no basis in fact. Nobody knows the true impact these sets will have on little girls, who later mature into women with jobs and extra discretionary income. It's my opinion that it is quite possible many women in the future will have an interest in LEGO sets that we currently do not see. If there is a growth of women buying retired Friends sets(or any sets), then the secondary LEGO market will have a huge influx of new customers and fans.

I think this right here pretty much nailed it on the head. Though I believe LEGO had a good idea of how well recieved the FRIENDS theme would have been with all the research they had done, just not as much as it actually did when released. I'm not surprised at all with how popular the theme has become to tell the truth. Especially when compared to the similiar 'girly' themes from before (Homemaker, Paradisa, Belville, Scala), FRIENDS just knocks the ball out of the park and continues to do so AND is doing it with originality. SCALA looked like LEGO Barbie, BELVILLE were....um....yuck, and PARADISA....was just regular sets with a couple of pink parts, big whoop.

All the feminist protest do was bring about MORE attention to the theme which in turn made them sell even more!

Perhaps the little talk that LEGO and the protest group had even bettered the sets, who knows.

The little ladies of today will become the corporate women of tomorrow, and may buy that set from their youth for their own youths. There is a staggering amount of women that are collectors and VERY serious about it. If Barbies are collectible, why not FRIENDS? FRIENDS as a LEGO set offers more than what a Barbie can, don't they? True, you can't comb the hair on a FRIENDS figure or try on different shoes but still.

All I can say is that I like the look and what is offered with the FRIENDS sets, and I'm a guy. As a builder or investor, I would not touch the older themes for girls. Those are a little weird in my eyes. FRIENDS on the other hand is great, and if I had a daughter I would love to buy these sets for her and build alongside her.

So there. ;-p

[Tilted]

I'm not playing devil's advocate here, as a matter of fact, I've more than doubled my money this past Christmas when Olivia's House was sold out everywhere (as was most of the Friends line, which was hugely popular).

I was referring to their value purely as a collectible.

I think it's a great concept and hope that it brings more girls into the world of LEGO.

FRIENDS on the other hand is great, and if I had a daughter I would love to buy these sets for her and build alongside her.

I feel this is one of the reasons the line is so successful, DUCY?

[Alcarin]

I think this right here pretty much nailed it on the head. Though I believe LEGO had a good idea of how well recieved the FRIENDS theme would have been with all the research they had done, just not as much as it actually did when released. I'm not surprised at all with how popular the theme has become to tell the truth. Especially when compared to the similiar 'girly' themes from before (Homemaker, Paradisa, Belville, Scala), FRIENDS just knocks the ball out of the park and continues to do so AND is doing it with originality. SCALA looked like LEGO Barbie, BELVILLE were....um....yuck, and PARADISA....was just regular sets with a couple of pink parts, big whoop.

All the feminist protest do was bring about MORE attention to the theme which in turn made them sell even more!

Perhaps the little talk that LEGO and the protest group had even bettered the sets, who knows.

The little ladies of today will become the corporate women of tomorrow, and may buy that set from their youth for their own youths. There is a staggering amount of women that are collectors and VERY serious about it. If Barbies are collectible, why not FRIENDS? FRIENDS as a LEGO set offers more than what a Barbie can, don't they? True, you can't comb the hair on a FRIENDS figure or try on different shoes but still.

All I can say is that I like the look and what is offered with the FRIENDS sets, and I'm a guy. As a builder or investor, I would not touch the older themes for girls. Those are a little weird in my eyes. FRIENDS on the other hand is great, and if I had a daughter I would love to buy these sets for her and build alongside her.

So there. ;-p

I think you overestimate the women population in general. you might have a few women collectors of LEGO but majority is male, and is see no real life proof of this changing in anytime during the future. In local shops i still see male buying LEGO (even friends) for daughters, not feminist women.

Now you can all flip for 30-70% profits for Friends but I and many more do not have that money to pour into Friends and everything else, so we plan long term (1,5+ years) which is fine, I am happy for you if you make profits but i feel all your consumers are dumb for paying 30% or more extra than retail if they could simply wait, guess the logic of capitalism simply flipped their mind into consumer stance (MUST HAVE NOW!!!)

Only a dumb person or a children controled parents would pay double or 50% retail price for their children because they want this set today. My parents would simply say shut it and wait till its available for retail.

But i guess idiots make profits go sky rocketing.

So thats how i see things, but its cool to drive sales on the retards (excluding those few overwealthy who just do NOT care for the price but only about end product)

[emes]

I think you overestimate the women population in general. you might have a few women collectors of LEGO but majority is male, and is see no real life proof of this changing in anytime during the future. In local shops i still see male buying LEGO (even friends) for daughters, not feminist women.

Now you can all flip for 30-70% profits for Friends but I and many more do not have that money to pour into Friends and everything else, so we plan long term (1,5+ years) which is fine, I am happy for you if you make profits but i feel all your consumers are dumb for paying 30% or more extra than retail if they could simply wait, guess the logic of capitalism simply flipped their mind into consumer stance (MUST HAVE NOW!!!)

Only a dumb person or a children controled parents would pay double or 50% retail price for their children because they want this set today. My parents would simply say shut it and wait till its available for retail.

But i guess idiots make profits go sky rocketing.

So thats how i see things, but its cool to drive sales on the retards (excluding those few overwealthy who just do NOT care for the price but only about end product)

Alacrin, no offense, but your logic is a bit weak here. Basically you're saying that you don't have much money to invest therefore a longer-term investment with an unproven rate of return that ties up your limited capital much longer makes more sense than a shorter-term investment with a proven rate of return that lets you turn your money over more quickly. Seems like if you don't have much money to invest then you should be figuring out ways to double, triple, and quadruple the amount you have in as short a time as possible.

I'm all for different styles in this game, but the point of the matter is that each market is different. They have different players and they demand different things and they buy things at different times and for different reasons. How exactly are people that pay 50% above retail for a set that's been retired for 5 years "smarter" than someone who pays 50% above retail for a current set now that is impossible for most people to find? They're not, because intelligence isn't the factor here. The factors are purely supply and demand and market efficiencies and inefficiencies. When you get into judging the relative intelligence of demand you simply won't do well at this type of thing. Demand is neither smart nor dumb, and in a free-market system those that respond to demand are rewarded.

Too many people here think they're buying the next Millenium Falcon or Green Grocer and that they're going to hold things and get some amazing return. Items like that are always an exception in every market. It's nice when you hit them, but if you really want to make money at this or any or investment you have to behave in line with the expectations of each market and give each market what it wants.

[emes]

Really, I would like no one to buy Friends sets to invest in, so my Friends sets would increase in value. For that matter, don't buy Ninjago or Chima sets either. I think everyone should think alike and buy some more Monster Fighters and Modulars. ;-)

Yeah, I personally don't "get" Chima but I'm mature enough to recognize that I'm not the target market and that the target market for those sets is huge. Once the 1st round of Speedorz go EOL those are going to really take off. The best discount on Speedorz I've found is 10% off...have you seen better?

[Snowcrash]

Emes is making an excellent point here and I hope all you investor are paying attention. If you're out and about and you happen across a Lego set you could list for sale and turn a 30% or more profit for that night you buy it and list it for sale on eBay that night! You'll walk away with at least a 10% profit which is nothing to sneeze at. If the set doesn't sell just return it, but if you did your homework that shouldn't be an issue. I'll admit I was skeptical about the Friends line, I still am as a long term play. If I see a sought after set though I have no issues parading a cart of pink and purple boxes through a store if it means I can turn a decent profit overnight. I'd like to thank Emes and other posters who brought to my attention that these sets have been selling for such a high premium on the secondary market. Though their value may be increasing for entirely different reasons than traditional Lego sets that doesn't mean we should ignore them nor take advantage of the investment opportunities they represent.

[emes]

Emes is making an excellent point here and I hope all you investor are paying attention. If you're out and about and you happen across a Lego set you could list for sale and turn a 30% or more profit for that night you buy it and list it for sale on eBay that night! You'll walk away with at least a 10% profit which is nothing to sneeze at. If the set doesn't sell just return it, but if you did your homework that shouldn't be an issue. I'll admit I was skeptical about the Friends line, I still am as a long term play. If I see a sought after set though I have no issues parading a cart of pink and purple boxes through a store if it means I can turn a decent profit overnight. I'd like to thank Emes and other posters who brought to my attention that these sets have been selling for such a high premium on the secondary market. Though their value may be increasing for entirely different reasons than traditional Lego sets that doesn't mean we should ignore them nor take advantage of the investment opportunities they represent.

Thanks Snowcrash, but I just want to add one thing. When I say 30% I mean pure profit after all fees and shipping. That's mine and my wife's general goal regardless of whether we've bought a LEGO set or a car to resell. A 10% return is nothing to sneeze at and it would be incredibly easy to get with many different things that can be had at retail, but, the volume would have to be very high at that level to make any serious money.

On the spreadsheet that we use I have a field that calculates the ROI. I modify the numbers for whatever the item is until I get some combination that is 30% or above for ROI and then look to see how my base price compares to what's regularly selling in the market. I actually end up being under the market on many items using this method so I often have some room to increase my ROI.

One more thing I'll add...never underestimate the willingness of people to pay a huge amount to ship something internationally. I've seen someone pay $45 to ship a $9.99 cosmetic item across the world via express mail.

Bottom line for me is this, I don't much care whether the people buying the things that I sell are smart or dumb in their purchasing decisions because at the end of the day their money spends exactly the same way.

[tigereyes5811]

THIS THREAD IS GREAT!!! GOTTA LOVE THE DIVERSITY IN LEGO INVESTING. ALL I WAS TRYING TO PROVE WAS IF YOU ARE TRYING TO INVEST IN A SET FOR LONG TERM...YOU WOULD WANT TO INVEST IN A SET EVERYONE CAN RELATE TO. IF YOU WANT QUICK FLIPS, YOU CAN DO THAT ALSO. SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO BUILD YOUR INVESTMENT CAPITAL. 30% RETURN IS GREAT ON FRIENDS SET BUT HOW ARE YOU BUYING A FRIENDS SET AND COMING UP ON A 30% RETURN OVERNIGHT WHEN AMAZON, WALMART, TARGET, AND EVEN EBAY HAS GOT THAT ITEM FOR CHEAP??? THAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND. UNLESS YOUR TALKING ABOUT COMING UP ON SOME RETIRED SETS. THAT'S LIKE HITTING A JACKPOT. OR WHAT I LIKE TO SAY...FREE MONEY!!!! NOW DON'T GET ME WRONG, I WAS ALWAYS ON BOARD WITH INVESTING IN FRIENDS. THOSE 1ST LINE OF FRIENDS SETS WILL BE GOOD. BUT NOT ALL, JUST SOME BUT THEY WILL ALL APPRECIATE NICELY THAT'S FOR SURE. WHAT'S HOT IS THAT DAMN BEAUTY SHOP. THE ONES THAT WILL BE HOT IMO IS OLIVIA'S HOUSE. OLIVIA'S TREE HOUSE. AND THAT CAFE. THAT'S WHAT IM PUTTING MY MONEY ON FOR THE 1st LINE. OH BY THE WAY JUST PICKED UP SOME MORE HAUNTED HOUSES ED!!! LOL IM GOING TO HAVE MY DAUGHTER PUT OLIVIA AND ALL HER FRIENDS IN THE HAUNTED HOUSE FOR A BIG OL' SLEEP OVER PARTY!!!! LOOK OUT FOR THOSE GHOSTS AND ZOMBIES GIRLS!!!! LOL

[pickleboy]

^^^ Fix your caps.. hurts my eyes...

[emes]

THIS THREAD IS GREAT!!! GOTTA LOVE THE DIVERSITY IN LEGO INVESTING. ALL I WAS TRYING TO PROVE WAS IF YOU ARE TRYING TO INVEST IN A SET FOR LONG TERM...YOU WOULD WANT TO INVEST IN A SET EVERYONE CAN RELATE TO. IF YOU WANT QUICK FLIPS, YOU CAN DO THAT ALSO. SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO BUILD YOUR INVESTMENT CAPITAL. 30% RETURN IS GREAT ON FRIENDS SET BUT HOW ARE YOU BUYING A FRIENDS SET AND COMING UP ON A 30% RETURN OVERNIGHT WHEN AMAZON, WALMART, TARGET, AND EVEN EBAY HAS GOT THAT ITEM FOR CHEAP??? THAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND. UNLESS YOUR TALKING ABOUT COMING UP ON SOME RETIRED SETS. THAT'S LIKE HITTING A JACKPOT. OR WHAT I LIKE TO SAY...FREE MONEY!!!! NOW DON'T GET ME WRONG, I WAS ALWAYS ON BOARD WITH INVESTING IN FRIENDS. THOSE 1ST LINE OF FRIENDS SETS WILL BE GOOD. BUT NOT ALL, JUST SOME BUT THEY WILL ALL APPRECIATE NICELY THAT'S FOR SURE. WHAT'S HOT IS THAT DAMN BEAUTY SHOP. THE ONES THAT WILL BE HOT IMO IS OLIVIA'S HOUSE. OLIVIA'S TREE HOUSE. AND THAT CAFE. THAT'S WHAT IM PUTTING MY MONEY ON FOR THE 1st LINE. OH BY THE WAY JUST PICKED UP SOME MORE HAUNTED HOUSES ED!!! LOL IM GOING TO HAVE MY DAUGHTER PUT OLIVIA AND ALL HER FRIENDS IN THE HAUNTED HOUSE FOR A BIG OL' SLEEP OVER PARTY!!!! LOOK OUT FOR THOSE GHOSTS AND ZOMBIES GIRLS!!!! LOL

Yeah, fix your caps.

I do it with items that are hard to find and then mix it all together in a lot. I have a ton of the 1st Friends series with multiples of the ones that are impossible to find. Actually I start my auctions at 30% profit, people often bid them higher. Also you can make 30% profit fairly easily when you buy things at well below RRP.

If you think about it most of the Friends sets are so small that by themselves you'll never make much money on them. I mix them together and think of them as one big $150 set.

[Alcarin]

Alacrin, no offense, but your logic is a bit weak here. Basically you're saying that you don't have much money to invest therefore a longer-term investment with an unproven rate of return that ties up your limited capital much longer makes more sense than a shorter-term investment with a proven rate of return that lets you turn your money over more quickly. Seems like if you don't have much money to invest then you should be figuring out ways to double, triple, and quadruple the amount you have in as short a time as possible.

I'm all for different styles in this game, but the point of the matter is that each market is different. They have different players and they demand different things and they buy things at different times and for different reasons. How exactly are people that pay 50% above retail for a set that's been retired for 5 years "smarter" than someone who pays 50% above retail for a current set now that is impossible for most people to find? They're not, because intelligence isn't the factor here. The factors are purely supply and demand and market efficiencies and inefficiencies. When you get into judging the relative intelligence of demand you simply won't do well at this type of thing. Demand is neither smart nor dumb, and in a free-market system those that respond to demand are rewarded.

Too many people here think they're buying the next Millenium Falcon or Green Grocer and that they're going to hold things and get some amazing return. Items like that are always an exception in every market. It's nice when you hit them, but if you really want to make money at this or any or investment you have to behave in line with the expectations of each market and give each market what it wants.

I am just warning people that saying Friends will be another big hit to be cautious because some posts here make it like they are the big new hit like Star Wars.

And its alot of difference in intelligence... if you want THAT millenium falcon that is retired and you want it so bad you can pay for it (ridiculous amount) if you want olivias house you wait 2 months you get it 50% cheaper...

Its basic intelligence anyone wanting Olivias house NOW should wait for resupply... there will not be another EXACT same Falcon though.

So your comparison is way off

All I am warning is to let everyone know what i think..... and I expressed what i think, your reply is though an exact attack on me personally instead of discussing about the sets...

I am yet to hear 3 good reasons why anyone thinks Friends is the new big winner, except speculation with no real basis. male collecting LEGO has a strong history, and so is a valid basis for speculation but women psychology is completely different and based way more towards shiny and new than old and valuable atleast in LEGO.

Me personally I do not have the time to buy sets and sell them for 30-45% above my purchase value. I aim for 2x retail then sell, thats just my aim. I list all my sets (and always leave 1 out for long term) as soon as they hit 2x retail or as soon as they are 7-12 months EOL.

thats my idea of doing it someone else sure has some others... the only things i sell forth sooner are minifigures and only leave 1 whole series for myself

I am sure some will not agree but with those few sets i invested in so far i had 80% success (4 went for 1,90-2,05x retail 1 was a flop in my eyes)

I will go check store for Friends and will see what they have out of curiosity about them cos last time i checked boxes i had 0 knowledge what was what lol.

[pickleboy]

You guys are just babbling now, making stuff up like the "psychology of men vs women collectors" ...lol

[Alcarin]

You guys are just babbling now, making stuff up like the "psychology of men vs women collectors" ...lol

If you think the differences do not exist then keep living your dream :)