LEGO 2012 PRESS RELEASE...EXCELLENT NEWS FOR INVESTORS!!!

[Ed Mack]

Here is the most recent LEGO Press Release on the 2012 year end financials and statistics. The original link can be found here. Overall, the data was excellent news for The LEGO Group(TLG), LEGO fans of all ages and LEGO investors in particular. TLG has shown strong growth for an eighth straight year and has shown tremendous growth globally, expanding an already large fan base.

What I found most interesting from an investor and collector's standpoint was that the TOP 4 themes in sales were(in order):

1. CITY

2. STAR WARS

3. NINJAGO

4. FRIENDS

I know all about the strength of NINJAGO and FRIENDS themes, and the CITY theme is always a winner with the kids, but STAR WARS is still showing remarkable strength, even without any major movie to push sales. Investors might want to reassess their investment strategy to include a few more STAR WARS sets. Take a look at the LEGO Press Release:

Successful LEGO strategy delivers continued strong growth

The focus on innovative product development of themes such as LEGO

[force392]

So much for a recession affecting TLG. People love their little plastic bricks!

[Alcarin]

I do NOT find these news good though, especially not for investing in long term... as i read in the article more employees, more factories, means MORE SETS being made = less exclusive = less aftermarket value. This news as investor is actually a bad thing. As soon as average joe enters in investing LEGO it will all be speculation and investors will buy from investors... I would prefer if LEGO would reduce amounts of sets being made (especially big ones) to a degree where you can only buy 1 for household/adress Bring back rarity!

[CNH1974]

Arguably Lego does reduce the amounts of sets. It happens everytime a set goes EOL. If they kept making sets because demand was there they would still be making the classic sets from the 80s, eg 6285 & 6980. These go for good money. As soon as 'in demand' a set goes EOL the price rises; 10193 & 10217 are recent cases in the UK.

[Alcarin]

Arguably Lego does reduce the amounts of sets. It happens everytime a set goes EOL. If they kept making sets because demand was there they would still be making the classic sets from the 80s, eg 6285 & 6980. These go for good money.

As soon as 'in demand' a set goes EOL the price rises; 10193 & 10217 are recent cases in the UK.

Yes but if lets say 100.000 more people bought each 5 whatever sets LEGO would likely extend their production line longer and that would dump prices in aftermarket, especially if we are only talking investors not AFOL/Investors, pure cash people who dont care about LEGO only see easy cash... sure they will be gone within 1-3 years when they see they fail all the time BUT it will take 3+ years to fix the market again.

Anyone buying 20+ sets to keep them MINT is just not doing the perfect thing OVERALL (for him its good) but i strongly suspect this will not go ''forever'' in such way.

imagine if youd buy 25 haunted houses then LEGO just screws you up and decides to double their houses and/or even lower retail just for fun cos they can do it (not likely but lets go into theory)

Its not healthy for the 2nd marketplace to have people going insane on buying amazing amounts of sets (1 type)

I read someone bought 27+ vampire castles.... insane :)

[CNH1974]

To make a decent return seems to be a medium term investment, 3-5 years. And always follow the moral to diversify your portfolio. Don't put all your money into lego. And don't put all your lego into one theme. 27 vampire castles?? Maybe once he's been bitten, he'll be twice shy!

[Ed Mack]

I welcome more people coming into the LEGO world. There is so much untapped potential for future fans in non US and European markets that this will also spur interest in older and retired sets as well. The more the merrier I say...

[glucapg]

I welcome more people coming into the LEGO world. There is so much untapped potential for future fans in non US and European markets that this will also spur interest in older and retired sets as well. The more the merrier I say...

Help me: what does "the more the merrier I say...." mean?

[Rich B]

Yes but if lets say 100.000 more people bought each 5 whatever sets LEGO would likely extend their production line longer and that would dump prices in aftermarket, especially if we are only talking investors not AFOL/Investors, pure cash people who dont care about LEGO only see easy cash... sure they will be gone within 1-3 years when they see they fail all the time BUT it will take 3+ years to fix the market again.

Anyone buying 20+ sets to keep them MINT is just not doing the perfect thing OVERALL (for him its good) but i strongly suspect this will not go ''forever'' in such way.

imagine if youd buy 25 haunted houses then LEGO just screws you up and decides to double their houses and/or even lower retail just for fun cos they can do it (not likely but lets go into theory)

Its not healthy for the 2nd marketplace to have people going insane on buying amazing amounts of sets (1 type)

I read someone bought 27+ vampire castles.... insane

While 27 vampyre castles may seem a bit overboard to most, if they increase in value after EOL you will be wishing you had 27 of them. I remember reading that someone had 62 Maersk Trains last summer and I thought that was crazy. Now that they are EOL and have shot up in value we all wish we had 62 Maersk Trains.

[CNH1974]

I wish I had 62 medieval villages Actually I wish I had discovered this in 2007. And bought lots of cafe corners. it's not as if I didn't see them on sale. Aaaah the benefit of hindsight, turn it into foresight and we'd all be millionaires.

[Darth Lego]

Help me: what does "the more the merrier I say...." mean?

It means if we have more of it, it will be better.

[glucapg]

Help me: what does "the more the merrier I say...." mean?

It means if we have more of it, it will be better.

Thanks a lot

[Darth Lego]

Help me: what does "the more the merrier I say...." mean?

It means if we have more of it, it will be better.

Thanks a lot

You're welcome.

[icephoenix181]

You can take it both ways. A theme selling alot could mean there is alot of demand for it, thus later on the demand for that theme may still have lots of momentum and being EOL, the investor will be the only source for that demand. Or you can take it that if a theme is really popular and sells a ton, that means most people who would have demanded the product have been satisfied; Potentially, the people whom the theme appealed to where able to buy and thus the good sales. It also means that there is alot of the product floating around. So say after EOL you put up a MISB auction and there are tons of opened but very good(perfect) condition auctions, it can be likely that most will just decide to buy the cheaper option. This deflates the amount your auction sells for in the end. For instace, if the selling point of the set is the minifigs and there are tons of them loose but in good condition to go around, there is then less demand to buy the set MISB.

[Alcarin]

You can take it both ways.

A theme selling alot could mean there is alot of demand for it, thus later on the demand for that theme may still have lots of momentum and being EOL, the investor will be the only source for that demand.

Or you can take it that if a theme is really popular and sells a ton, that means most people who would have demanded the product have been satisfied; Potentially, the people whom the theme appealed to where able to buy and thus the good sales. It also means that there is alot of the product floating around. So say after EOL you put up a MISB auction and there are tons of opened but very good(perfect) condition auctions, it can be likely that most will just decide to buy the cheaper option. This deflates the amount your auction sells for in the end. For instace, if the selling point of the set is the minifigs and there are tons of them loose but in good condition to go around, there is then less demand to buy the set MISB.

pretty much summs my thoughts completely. Though i strongly suspect we will get the 2nd. Friends just became hit and get rid with 30% increased value... no long term value overall

[Ed Mack]

pretty much summs my thoughts completely. Though i strongly suspect we will get the 2nd. Friends just became hit and get rid with 30% increased value... no long term value overall

LEGO underestimated the popularity of the Friends theme, as did many investors(not me). I knew, as soon as I saw the quality of the sets that it would be a hit. The feminists and their complaints about the theme only brought more attention to it. To say there is no long term value in these sets has no basis in fact. Nobody knows the true impact these sets will have on little girls, who later mature into women with jobs and extra discretionary income. It's my opinion that it is quite possible many women in the future will have an interest in LEGO sets that we currently do not see. If there is a growth of women buying retired Friends sets(or any sets), then the secondary LEGO market will have a huge influx of new customers and fans.

[Alcarin]

pretty much summs my thoughts completely. Though i strongly suspect we will get the 2nd. Friends just became hit and get rid with 30% increased value... no long term value overall

LEGO underestimated the popularity of the Friends theme, as did many investors(not me). I knew, as soon as I saw the quality of the sets that it would be a hit. The feminists and their complaints about the theme only brought more attention to it. To say there is no long term value in these sets has no basis in fact. Nobody knows the true impact these sets will have on little girls, who later mature into women with jobs and extra discretionary income. It's my opinion that it is quite possible many women in the future will have an interest in LEGO sets that we currently do not see. If there is a growth of women buying retired Friends sets(or any sets), then the secondary LEGO market will have a huge influx of new customers and fans.

And if they do not care for LEGO products after they mature? Then Friends is basically a big fail bottom 50 winner together with Atlantis and Prince of Persia and World racers.

Point I am trying to make is, lets say, all or majority of LEGO investors seen this, true we are currently still the minority

I just do NOT see Friends as Star Wars or LOTR or Castle lines.... maybe they will go to about 35% retail within the next 2 years but that is about it, I mean girls will want NEW stuff not vintage friends sets, unless this line ends up going forever(SW style) even then I just dont see girls/women appreciating the classics as much as men appreciate Falcon

Its just different, and i predict Friends doing rather casual but then again I am just me and what do I know :D

[Ed Mack]

pretty much summs my thoughts completely. Though i strongly suspect we will get the 2nd. Friends just became hit and get rid with 30% increased value... no long term value overall

LEGO underestimated the popularity of the Friends theme, as did many investors(not me). I knew, as soon as I saw the quality of the sets that it would be a hit. The feminists and their complaints about the theme only brought more attention to it. To say there is no long term value in these sets has no basis in fact. Nobody knows the true impact these sets will have on little girls, who later mature into women with jobs and extra discretionary income. It's my opinion that it is quite possible many women in the future will have an interest in LEGO sets that we currently do not see. If there is a growth of women buying retired Friends sets(or any sets), then the secondary LEGO market will have a huge influx of new customers and fans.

And if they do not care for LEGO products after they mature? Then Friends is basically a big fail bottom 50 winner together with Atlantis and Prince of Persia and World racers.

Point I am trying to make is, lets say, all or majority of LEGO investors seen this, true we are currently still the minority

I just do NOT see Friends as Star Wars or LOTR or Castle lines.... maybe they will go to about 35% retail within the next 2 years but that is about it, I mean girls will want NEW stuff not vintage friends sets, unless this line ends up going forever(SW style) even then I just dont see girls/women appreciating the classics as much as men appreciate Falcon

Its just different, and i predict Friends doing rather casual but then again I am just me and what do I know

It's all speculation. But there will always be little girls and if the future little girls love these sets like the current ones do, maybe these older sets will be wanted by new generations.

[Talon]

Did you notice the press release line -

More than 60% of the LEGO Group

[Alcarin]

It's all speculation. But there will always be little girls and if the future little girls love these sets like the current ones do, maybe these older sets will be wanted by new generations.

Yes but lets be realistic here. What are the chances a girl today at 12 years of age will want Friends from 2013 in 20 years like I wanted Black Knights Castle.

I just do not see Friends appreciating well, its my thought i might be completely wrong, but every new generation of girl children their parents will just pick up new LEGO lines not search for 5 years old Olivias house for 3x retail.

[Snowcrash]

I think the bigger question here Ed is what's your time frame for flipping these Friends sets? Who's the target audience? Is it these same young girls who are playing with the sets now once they're older, much like the current market targets young boys who grow up to become AFOLs? If so that's a long time to hold these sets, perhaps a decade or even longer. If you're going to flip them in year or two I'm wondering if you think they'll outperform current offerings like Ninjago, Monster Fighters, or Star Wars? It seems like a long time to tie up money on a speculative play if the former, and I have my doubts if its the latter.

[Ed Mack]

Yes but lets be realistic here. What are the chances a girl today at 12 years of age will want Friends from 2013 in 20 years like I wanted Black Knights Castle.

I just do not see Friends appreciating well, its my thought i might be completely wrong, but every new generation of girl children their parents will just pick up new LEGO lines not search for 5 years old Olivias house for 3x retail.

Let's be realistic here...If I told you a couple of years ago that a LEGO theme dedicated to girls would be one of their top themes in the near future, would you have believed me? Times are a changin' and the smart investors will take note and adapt.

[Ed Mack]

I think the bigger question here Ed is what's your time frame for flipping these Friends sets? Who's the target audience? Is it these same young girls who are playing with the sets now once they're older, much like the current market targets young boys who grow up to become AFOLs? If so that's a long time to hold these sets, perhaps a decade or even longer. If you're going to flip them in year or two I'm wondering if you think they'll outperform current offerings like Ninjago, Monster Fighters, or Star Wars? It seems like a long time to tie up money on a speculative play if the former, and I have my doubts if its the latter.

Time frame is now...2 years from now...10 years from now. I can make a strong case for each. There will be little girls in the future who want EVERY SET. They know how to use sites like ours to and will see what was retired. Maybe they will want an Olivia's House to go along with a new Stephanie's house. Maybe a mother wants to buy the same set for her daughter 10 years from now that she played with now. See my point? A great LEGO set always will be a great LEGO set. These sets are not Prince of Persia sets. ;-) Little girls are a whole new dynamic to the LEGO investment world.

[tigereyes5811]

HONESTLY IMO...THESE NINJAGO THEMES AND FRIENDS THEME ARE GREAT FOR SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS. 2-3 YEARS TOPS/MAX. THET DO WELL DURING HOLIDAY SEASONS. THESE SET WILL APPRECIATE IN TIME...BUT THE QUESTION THESE PEOPLE ARE ASKING YOU ED IS...IS IT BETTER TO INVEST LET'S SAY IN ONE HAUNTED HOUSE OR 2 OLIVIA'S HOUSE AND 1 OLIVIA'S TREE HOUSE. HAUNTED HOUSE $179 TOTAL. 2 OLIVIA'S HOUSE AND 1 OLIVIA'S TREE HOUSE $169 TOTAL. DIFFERENCE OF $10. NOW THE BIG PICTURE IN LEGO INVESTMENT IS ABOUT APPRECIATION IN THE SET. IMO THE HAUNTED HOUSE WILL DO BETTER BECAUSE EVERYBODY CAN RELATE TO IT, IT'S SOMETHING SPECIAL, ICONIC, AND REALLY REALLY COOL. 1) A YOUNG CHILD 6-12 EITHER SEX. 2) A TEENAGER 13-17 EITHER SEX. 3) A YOUNG ADULT 18-24 EITHER SEX. 4) MID AGE ADULT 25-35 EITHER SEX. 5) OLDER ADULTS 36-55 EITHER SEXS. YOU COVER A MORE LARGER AND WIDER RANGE OF AUDIENCE. THE HAUNTED HOUSE WILL BE A CLASSIC SET AND IS OVERALL A BETTER INVESTMENT. NOW FOR THE FRIENDS SET. IT WILL DO GOOD BUT NOT AS GOOD AND HERE'S WHY IMO...IT'S A GREAT SET DURING THE HOLIDAYS. THE PARENTS WILL BUY IT FOR THEIR DAUGHTER JUST LIKE NINJAGO FOR THEIR SONS. LETS SEE WHO WILL BUY FRIENDS THEME 1) A YOUNG CHILD 6-12 ONLY GIRLS 2) A TEENAGER 13-16 GIRLS ONLY. NOW TO HOLD ON TO A SET TIL THE GIRL IS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 YEARS OLD TO BUY IT BECAUSE OF HER CHILDHOOD MEMORIES OR WHEN SHE HAS KIDS. THAT'S A LONG TIME. BUT THE ONLY WAY AN OLIVIA'S HOUSE WILL BE GOING UP IN PRICE BESIDES XMAS TIME IS IF THE PARENTS HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BUY OLIVIA'S HOUSE IS BECAUSE ITS A SET THAT SHE EITHER REALLY WANTS OR IT COMPLETES HER SET. THE QUESTION IS, ARE THE PARENTS GONNA FORK UP THAT MONEY? AND IMO THEY WON'T BE CLASSICS BECAUSE THEY WON'T BE SOUGHT AFTER BY EVERBODY...JUST THE GIRLS THAT CAN RELATE TO IT. IMO THE HAUNTED HOUSE CAN BE IN THE $500-700 WITHIN 2 YEARS OF RETIREMENT!!! JUST MY OPINION. BUT I DO LIKE FRIENDS AND NINJAGO FOR QUIK FLIPS DURING THE HOLIDAYS.

[pickleboy]

Barbie dolls.