COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[NIevo]

10 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

https://twitter.com/DomJMoore/status/1247863605795717120?s=20

That's awesome!  Good on LEGO.

 

[NIevo]

25 minutes ago, HappyHawkeye said:

Nor do I. A media conspiracy presupposes there's such a thing as "the media", as in a single monolithic and sentient entity that can uniformly dictate how information is gathered and disseminated. It also assumes that "the media" has somehow convinced not only the current administration, but president himself to  go along for the ride.

I think the more likely conspiracy here is that folks that were naysayers from the beginning are still looking for ways to downplay the seriousness of the virus rather than acknowledge not only the ever increasing death tolls, but the extreme efforts required to keep those numbers as low as they are.

I'm not so much saying that it's a conspiracy by the media and other outlets, must more the fact that it's being blown way out of proportion and being taken way to far just because it makes for a better story and sells more.  Look at how many fake stories and hoax's we are hearing about now such as the nurse from New York who broke down and said she had to quit because they didn't have masks.  Turns out the whole thing was fake.  Or the reports of doctors offices and smaller hospitals in New York offering help and beds yet not being taken up on it or getting a response from the Governor. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

13 minutes ago, NIevo said:

That's awesome!  Good on LEGO.

 

after the medical emergencies...would make a nice GWP

[CosmicSpeed]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

after the medical emergencies...would make a nice GWP

Wont arrive in time for easter.

[NIevo]

2 minutes ago, CosmicSpeed said:

Wont arrive in time for easter.

Christmas???? 

[Alpinemaps]

2 hours ago, HappyHawkeye said:

Many have argued that all cause mortality numbers are dropping lately (can’t find the tweets). This is wrong: CDC usually takes months to fully tabulate the data. There’s been a lot of misinformation here—a suggestion that pneumonia deaths are dropping because health officials are overstating COVID numbers, for instance, is widespread on twitter.

That's definitely been a popular angle with some on conspiracy forums.  Of course, just like everywhere else, if you only mention the facts you want to, you can get a POV that fits your narrative (e.g., as you said, if you leave out the length of time to get mortality numbers, and only look at the quick hit stuff, it looks weird, but really probably isn't if it runs its normal course).

1 hour ago, HappyHawkeye said:

Nor do I. A media conspiracy presupposes there's such a thing as "the media", as in a single monolithic and sentient entity that can uniformly dictate how information is gathered and disseminated. It also assumes that "the media" has somehow convinced not only the current administration, but president himself to  go along for the ride.

Of course, that can be all over the board.  25 years ago, there were 100 different media outlets, and quality of reporting is what put an outlet ahead.  Now, with only 6-8 media conglomerates, it's a lot easier for the voices to be very similar.  And when it's advertising dollars, and not quality reporting, that is driving the train, then the perceived collision of media can feel a lot more real.  Of course, if you believe that there is no real difference in political parties, a rich-elite ruling class, deep state, etc., then the President and media working toward someone else's common goal could be a thing.

*Disclamer:  I like to read a lot of different POVs, even stuff that isn't necessarily mainstream.  But believing everything I read on the Internet -  not so much.

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

No one's mind has ever been changed on politics from an internet forum so let's give it a rest.

Let's agree to disagree on the topic of Trump who is very polarizing.

Similarly for the jingo-ism sentiment...(OK, you've all done it now...I haven't had to actually use that term since High School Social Science over 30 years ago)

I wholly enjoy discussing CV developments from across the nation and across the pond, in this forum and would like to continue doing so.

[BrickLegacy]

Wow! Dr John Campbell drops a huge bomb on the WHO. This guy has no agenda and constantly puts humanity first (no politics). In fact, he seems to be the only one worrying about Africa. My link takes you to the WHO quote. 30 second clip.

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php

So there's suspicion CV hit SF Bay Area fall of 2019.

As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York's stay-at-order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.

"Something is going on that we haven't quite found out yet," said Victor Davis Hanson a senior fellow with Stanford's Hoover Institute.Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China. "When you add it all up it would be naïve to think that California did not have some exposure," said Hanson.

For years California has been the No. 1 travel destination for Chinese tourists in the United States. Even after the U.S. halted flights from China this winter Chinese travelers were still able to come to California on flights from Europe and Canada. Hanson said through all of this the Chinese have been disingenuous about the timing of the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

"They originally said it was in early January, then it got backdated to December and then early December and now they are saying as early as November 17," said Hanson.

If Californians were exposed earlier than the rest of the country to COVID-19 we may have had a chance to build up some herd immunity to the disease. We won't know if that is the case until results from the Stanford Medicine study come back.

Anectdotally; a really weird flu bug hit our school all at once this past January...about a 3rd of the school were sick within a single week...and within our social circle similar flu-like sickness from pretty much every household within a 2-week span in Jan...2 households I know had to take sick family members to ER and were immediately given Tami-flu anti-virus.

[NIevo]

9 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php

So there's suspicion CV hit SF Bay Area fall of 2019.

As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York's stay-at-order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.

"Something is going on that we haven't quite found out yet," said Victor Davis Hanson a senior fellow with Stanford's Hoover Institute.Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China. "When you add it all up it would be naïve to think that California did not have some exposure," said Hanson.

For years California has been the No. 1 travel destination for Chinese tourists in the United States. Even after the U.S. halted flights from China this winter Chinese travelers were still able to come to California on flights from Europe and Canada. Hanson said through all of this the Chinese have been disingenuous about the timing of the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

"They originally said it was in early January, then it got backdated to December and then early December and now they are saying as early as November 17," said Hanson.

If Californians were exposed earlier than the rest of the country to COVID-19 we may have had a chance to build up some herd immunity to the disease. We won't know if that is the case until results from the Stanford Medicine study come back.

Anectdotally; a really weird flu bug hit our school all at once this past January...about a 3rd of the school were sick within a single week...and within our social circle similar flu-like sickness from pretty much every household within a 2-week span in Jan...2 households I know had to take sick family members to ER and were immediately given Tami-flu anti-virus.

 

Actually I posted a link days ago with a link to a theory about CV that falls in line with this.  That it's actually been around in humans for a long time but we just weren't testing for it and passing it off as flu or cold and it finally mutated into a strong enough strain that it got attention.  That's based off the fact that it doesn't look like it came from a lab and numerous scientists have said that for it to have jumped straight from bats and Pangolins to humans in the current form would be nearly impossible and it doesn't match up.

[Ed Mack]

It is now the belief of many that the virus was indeed here back in November.  If that's the case, all the models may be wrong and we are peaking weeks before originally predicted.  

[BrickLegacy]

Wimbledon reportedly paid $2 million a year for pandemic insurance for the last 17 years (Total: $34 Million) For this year's cancellation as a result of the Coronavirus, Wimbledon will reportedly receive $141 million from the policy.

 

 

 

[Darth_Raichu]

3 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Wimbledon reportedly paid $2 million a year for pandemic insurance for the last 17 years (Total: $34 Million) For this year's cancellation as a result of the Coronavirus, Wimbledon will reportedly receive $141 million from the policy.

 

 

 

Assuming the insurance company does not go bankrupt due to that policy

[Darth_Raichu]

45 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

Wow! Dr John Campbell drops a huge bomb on the WHO. This guy has no agenda and constantly puts humanity first (no politics). In fact, he seems to be the only one worrying about Africa. My link takes you to the WHO quote. 30 second clip.

 

Agree with his point on the importance of Vit D up to a point.  But vit D is just a factor to help increase your immunity.  The more important aspect is modifying diets to increase overall health.  This means exercise, good night sleep, and consuming less sugar and carbs overall. 

[Alpinemaps]

36 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Anectdotally; a really weird flu bug hit our school all at once this past January...about a 3rd of the school were sick within a single week...and within our social circle similar flu-like sickness from pretty much every household within a 2-week span in Jan...2 households I know had to take sick family members to ER and were immediately given Tami-flu anti-virus.

Now that you mention it - I seem to remember something around the same time.  Near the beginning of the year, and the school nurse noted that a bunch of kids were out sick.  I just looked over my notes, and my kids were sick with flu-like symptoms mid-January.

Who knows.  Definitely a possibility.

[doon73]

On 4/4/2020 at 8:23 PM, Ed Mack said:

Sorry, I can't remember thousands of years ago.  Must be my old age.  As I said...in my opinion.  There are all types of schools out there for sure.  Some good and bad.  Some with non-traditional methods and some with traditional.  Point is, kids need to socialize beyond Mom and Dad.  

If kids socialise beyond mum and dad there may not be a mum and dad.

[BricksBrotha]

I am convinced as well CV was here in the fall as well if you look at the seasonal flu numbers and compare them from years back. Our area got hit really hard late Jan early Feb.  Here are some videos that were coming out of china in January compiled by a blogger I follow.  the CCP was cencoring the Weibo but some private VPNs were able to get some twitter videos out there on the web.  I remember thinking to myself, this is only going to get worse.

I am convinced the Chinese government was overwhelmed and unprepared, just as everyone else is now and couldn't stop the spread. They paniced, played it down mean while, puting an entire country on shut down.  We will probably never know when China had their first true case. 

As interesting and cool of a movie the conspiracy angle would be, Im still not convinced the lab was the leak. Sure they were studying coronavirus in bats, but it was universally known bats where vectors of rabies, ebola, corona, etc. 

Here is an interesting article written back in January that thinks snakes could have been bridge between bats and humans.  

https://www.sciencealert.com/snakes-are-the-likely-source-of-china-s-deadly-coronavirus-here-s-why

 

 

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, doon73 said:

If kids socialise beyond mum and dad there may not be a mum and dad.

Point understood.  That said, we will figure out a way to get kids back in school safely.  Believe me, it will be a dicey situation at first, but people cannot sit at home forever.  

[doon73]

5 hours ago, NIevo said:

Wow, you can't even quote the right comment.

There will be no thanking the Soviet's.  We could have just given Germany the can of sunshine treatment at that point but wasn't needed.  Not like we were fighting 2 fronts or anything.

 

I think this will open a lot of people's eyes to just how dependent we all are on the Chinese up to this point.  Almost like the most loved/hated man in America was saying about the importance of bringing jobs back here.

The Manhattan Project was far more complicated and needed too many players to simply suggest the US could have given 'Germany a can of the sunshine treatment' if it wasn't for the Soviet Union and all of the Allied forces combined to turn their attention elsewhere (and by elsewhere I include sending some of their leading scientists off to the Eastern front to fight the Soviets). The Manhattan Project only really started to develop with pace after the war in Europe ended.

No Soviet Union (50 million+ lives lost) to fight the war in Europe = no Manhattan Project. 

As one aside, to demonstrate the complexity of it all, main uranium deposits at that time were in US, Canada, Belgian Congo and Czechoslovakia, the latter being in Nazi hands and the Belgian Congo being the most important. Of course, if the Nazis had steamrollered the BC  after conquering North Africa it would/could have been a different story altogether. But they didn't.

No uranium = no Manhattan Project.  

As for the dependence on China we all feel that dependence to a degree but that dependence has surely been driven by consumerism (and marketing) for cheap products? Who 'really' needs a new iPhone every 12 months? Not me but millions of people do. It's not China's fault, if 'we' demand it they'll deliver and if 'we' bring it in house the cost will go up and no-one will be prepared to buy it, whatever 'it' is, at inflated prices..... unless you want to work even more hours for stuff no-one really needs.

I'll make my way to Anderson shelter (or as I like to call it, my own pub) which is still at the bottom of my garden right now. 

[thedingman5]

What I don't get though, is that when the "China numbers are fake" was first floated as a theory....it was that they were INFLATED.  It's a hoax...it will go to zero...not in this country, blah, blah, blah.

Now, suddenly, its, "yep, the China numbers are fake"...but they UNDERSOLD the risk and the threat so how the heck could we have been prepared for this.

I mean, come on, its one or the other...can't be BOTH.

[doon73]

52 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Point understood.  That said, we will figure out a way to get kids back in school safely.  Believe me, it will be a dicey situation at first, but people cannot sit at home forever.  

They can't but its all relative. Someone on BBC News last night was deploring how kids are getting anxious because they might not see their friends before they break for summer (mid July here in the UK) - they've only been off school two (or is three?) weeks!! When I was my sons school age we had power cuts, strikes, waste amassing in the streets, riots, IRA bombings, etc. When my dad was at school he was running to a bomb shelter most nights during 1941 and has rationing through to his mid-teens. As I said it's all relative and people need to focus on the big picture. A prolonged life is generally worth waiting for, even if it does carry an inconvenience by todays standards.

Edited April 8, 2020 by doon73

[Donut]

5 hours ago, NIevo said:

And we all thought 2016 was rough. 🤣

[doon73]

9 minutes ago, thedingman5 said:

What I don't get though, is that when the "China numbers are fake" was first floated as a theory....it was that they were INFLATED.  It's a hoax...it will go to zero...not in this country, blah, blah, blah.

Now, suddenly, its, "yep, the China numbers are fake"...but they UNDERSOLD the risk and the threat so how the heck could we have been prepared for this.

I mean, come on, its one or the other...can't be BOTH.

The company I work for is part US and part UK owed. I work for the US side but in the UK for reasons no-one really understands. About 8 weeks ago we initiated our site Business Continuity Plan and told our US leaders why. They pretty much told us we were wasting our time. When we got put into lockdown, three weeks ago, our US leaders were telling us to get back to work asap. By this point, schools had closed and some were being made into make shift hospitals They refused to listen. Until about a week ago. They didn't prepare, they didn't listen but the warning signs were there. They were putting lives before profit, its that simple and they were wrong. This is an S&P500 Company btw, no small fry. I'm not having a go (at the US) by the way but the economy drives everything these days so maybe this was why Trump put off his flight cancellations for so long - he knew it would damage his economy and whilst I dont know too much about US politics I do know that Trumps trump card is the economy. When you look at how many cargo planes there are in the world there's only a few thousand, most goods go as belly freight or are shipped. Stop the planes, stop the freight, ruin the economy. 

 

[exracer327]

20 hours ago, NIevo said:

Come on, anyone who thinks that the numbers coming out of China are accurate has no business voicing their opinion anywhere cause that's insane.  And WHO is a joke as we've already discussed.  Obviously we have the most "recorded" cases just cause we are the largest most populous country that is accurately keeping track.

Also, as a side note.  If you take out New York and New Jersey which I hate to be blunt but can only blame their current situation on themselves and not our fed gov., the US while still having the most "recorded" cases isn't even in the top 5 in deaths.  How some of you keep spouting off about how we are doomed is pathetic.  We have one of the lower death % rates of any developed country outside a small few.  I would say for the most part we are doing a pretty damn good job all things considered.

I agree with your statement about China.  For one, you don't lock down 11 million people for a few hundred deaths.  That's not the China way (https://www.history.com/topics/china/tiananmen-square).   

re: NY & NJ, I think you can just say NY.  It is sadly ironic how NY leaders were scoffing at the idea of prohibiting large gatherings the end of January in opposition to Trump shutting down travel.  NYC has created it's own problem, but sadly there is a lot of collateral damage, namely in NJ and Long Island, NY.

I live in NJ, first express stop out of NYC on our commuter-rail line.  You can track the original positives for covid-19 cases in NJ by looking at the commuter-rail lines out of NYC.  It might be the same in Southern NJ out of Phili but I think Phili locked down faster than NYC.

Our town of 30k people has about 100 cases with 3 deaths (all elderly with complications).  Most of the original people had no connection to the others until other family members become sick as well.  Most of them worked in Manhattan.  The suspicion (except DeBlasio, who is still encouraging people to take the subway) is that most were made sick from ridding the trains / subways, hence the number of cases exploding all at once. 

Just think how much damage one person who was coughing into their hand, touching turnstiles, handles, seats, walls, etc. can cause to tens-of-thousands of people who were unwittingly contracting it from just one person.  Coughing in a crowded subway choke-point - same thing if not worse.

[exracer327]

10 minutes ago, doon73 said:

The company I work for is part US and part UK owed. I work for the US side but in the UK for reasons no-one really understands. About 8 weeks ago we initiated our site Business Continuity Plan and told our US leaders why. They pretty much told us we were wasting our time. When we got put into lockdown, three weeks ago, our US leaders were telling us to get back to work asap. By this point, schools had closed and some were being made into make shift hospitals They refused to listen. Until about a week ago. They didn't prepare, they didn't listen but the warning signs were there. They were putting lives before profit, its that simple and they were wrong. This is an S&P500 Company btw, no small fry. I'm not having a go (at the US) by the way but the economy drives everything these days so maybe this was why Trump put off his flight cancellations for so long - he knew it would damage his economy and whilst I dont know too much about US politics I do know that Trumps trump card is the economy. When you look at how many cargo planes there are in the world there's only a few thousand, most goods go as belly freight or are shipped. Stop the planes, stop the freight, ruin the economy. 

 

That is bizarre.  Where is your USA headquarters?  We've (NJ) basically been in lock-down for a month already.