COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[benjamin4172]

I ordered 3-Layer mouth masks on ebay today to donate to local retirement homes. I know those aint ffp2 or 3 masks, but at least something, because those retirement homes are the first running out of protective gear. Maybe some of you think thats a good idea. Two weeks ago I contacted elderly neighbours of ours to go shopping and else, I think most of us can do something no matter where you live.

[NIevo]

35 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I'm not talking about a tank or battle ship...it's the freakin Hospital SHip...unless there are massive gun turrets hiding under that large Building with the Red Cross on it.

Stop playing Devil's advocate..if there are policies in place that keeps US from using its own Hospital ships, then the system is broken...not a good excuse

Also if you're so into the timing...how about 2 weeks ago or even a week ago?  or is a week a "reasonable amount of time" to mobilize an emergency vessel...because I still think that's way too long.

I know what your saying but it doesn't matter if it's a nuclear sub or a hospital ship, there are rules about using military assets on home soil.  I'm not sure if this even applies.  As I also stated the ship was in repair so it's a mute point. 

If you want to play devils advocate how about blaming the stupid New York officials who kept downplaying the whole thing and telling people to go out and socialize because they didn't want to look bad. 

[NIevo]

15 minutes ago, SpaceFan9 said:

iahawks550 posted the IHME link yesterday.  It's nice to see that at least the variance bars have tightened with the most recent update.  I still think this study is **** ****, though, and I say that as a professional in the medical industry and a data scientist.  They post their data, but they don't describe the statistical methods they use to arrive at their conclusions, there is no evidence of peer review (the "pics, or it didn't happen" test in my world), and as best as I can tell the information used by those models does not include intervention events.  With a proper description, I should be able to recreate their results, but there is not enough model description for me to do so in practice. In my state (MA) their models is not tracking the reported stats, nor being adapted to current conditions (again, as best as I can tell, because the model is opaque).

For good hard data, I've found this site to be valuable: https://covidtracking.com/.  The numbers I'm watching are confirmed case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths.  Hospitalization/dealts are running ~10%/~1% of confirmed cases.  If capacity (beds, ventilators, etc) is reached, then the death rate will go up.  If capacity can expand, the rate will likely stay static.  If the therapy trials prove to be effective, it will drop.  The big question, that no one knows the answer to yet, is what is the rate of asymptomatic cases which require neither testing or hospitialization?

In short, I suggest one treat these models with skepticism.  I think they are useful for predicting peak activity, but not total numbers. Don't despair or be led into fear by academic click-bait. 

p.s. ICU cases in MA are running 20-25% of total hospitalizations [cite: from my employer's daily update]

Another article I read yesterday was stating that a big problem the hospitals are running into isn't the serious cases.  It's the fact that everyone with a cough or slight fever is coming in and wanting tested or thinking they have the virus and clogging resources up because the freakin media and playing their end of times crap.

Several reports out today talking about the increase in drug and alcohol relapses and suicide rates.  At some point we have to decide if destroying world economies and peoples lives are worth the amount of people who "might" be saved which by most models is still less then acceptable death totals by other means such as drugs/alcohol and car crashes.

[SpaceFan9]

2 minutes ago, NIevo said:

Another article I read yesterday was stating that a big problem the hospitals are running into isn't the serious cases.  It's the fact that everyone with a cough or slight fever is coming in and wanting tested or thinking they have the virus and clogging resources

 

I agree.  This is confirmed in the covidtracking.com site: 42,793 tests, 5,752 confirmed for MA.

Another fun stat from my daily update: there is no (statistically significant) correlation between employee infections and work location.  Non-clinical workers are catching COVID at the same rate as clinical staff.  Positive: PPE gear/methods are working; Negative: community transmission rate is high.

[brickolodon]

I remember ppl saying no need to panic...all under control.

[NIevo]

2 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

I remember ppl saying no need to panic...all under control.

A lot of us aren't panicking.  Being careful/cautious is one thing, panicking like a lot are doing is another.  None of the models I've seen of even the worse case scenarios of this virus would cause me to panic.

[NIevo]

5 minutes ago, SpaceFan9 said:

I agree.  This is confirmed in the covidtracking.com site: 42,793 tests, 5,752 confirmed for MA.

Another fun stat from my daily update: there is no (statistically significant) correlation between employee infections and work location.  Non-clinical workers are catching COVID at the same rate as clinical staff.  Positive: PPE gear/methods are working; Negative: community transmission rate is high.

 

Another fun fact I've read, but I wouldn't know how to confirm is that anyone whose postmortem show's they have CV even if they are asymptomatic and it isn't shown to have contributed to their death is counted as a CV stat.

[Darth_Raichu]

34 minutes ago, NIevo said:

Several reports out today talking about the increase in drug and alcohol relapses

2 years of Keto diet went down the drain thanks to the quarantine.  At least that was my excuse for eating this huge bag of Lays

[Bold-Arrow]

This is pretty sad, once you start putting names/faces behind those killed by the virus , it starts hitting home . I followed  this story when it came out as I was fascinated by it from a medical point of view, a great healthcare provider lost. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/new-york-neurosurgeon-death-coronavirus-mcdonald-twins/index.html

[BrickLegacy]

iahawks550 posted the IHME link yesterday.  It's nice to see that at least the variance bars have tightened with the most recent update.  I still think this study is **** ****, though, and I say that as a professional in the medical industry and a data scientist.  They post their data, but they don't describe the statistical methods they use to arrive at their conclusions, there is no evidence of peer review (the "pics, or it didn't happen" test in my world), and as best as I can tell the information used by those models does not include intervention events.  With a proper description, I should be able to recreate their results, but there is not enough model description for me to do so in practice. In my state (MA) their models is not tracking the reported stats, nor being adapted to current conditions (again, as best as I can tell, because the model is opaque).
For good hard data, I've found this site to be valuable: https://covidtracking.com/.  The numbers I'm watching are confirmed case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths.  Hospitalization/dealts are running ~10%/~1% of confirmed cases.  If capacity (beds, ventilators, etc) is reached, then the death rate will go up.  If capacity can expand, the rate will likely stay static.  If the therapy trials prove to be effective, it will drop.  The big question, that no one knows the answer to yet, is what is the rate of asymptomatic cases which require neither testing or hospitialization?
In short, I suggest one treat these models with skepticism.  I think they are useful for predicting peak activity, but not total numbers. Don't despair or be led into fear by academic click-bait. 
p.s. ICU cases in MA are running 20-25% of total hospitalizations [cite: from my employer's daily update]

Finally a data scientist that I could have a beer with. Where have you been all my life?

[crayxlp]

On 3/29/2020 at 5:20 AM, Darth_Raichu said:

All I know is that concept of Schengen is about to go bye bye with Germany, Belgium, etc reintroducing border control thanks to Covid19.  Just like every other globalization ideas, all good and dandy during peace time, but it is the least anyone wants during a crisis. 

But again, the Shengen is not a fair comparison to the US as each EU country still have autonomy to act as an independent country, just as your own example of Czech Republic.  Clearly the way Czech handle the virus is completely different than Italy.  US is 1 country with a vast territory.

 

By the way, any comment on those faulty Covid test kits from China?

https://news.yahoo.com/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-162306412.html 

The EU Schengen area has shown its breaks for years for now - given the immigration waves from Turkey and other non-EU countries. No country in EU is allowed to maintain full 24 /7 border controls.. but Germany does since 2015, its ILLEGAL, its AGAINST all EU rules .. but nobody gives a frown.. this could be literally the last drop  - and personally I woudl welcome it.. The more "bodies" (in this case "sovereign states") have to settle on something (usually "compromise") .. the more ineffective it is.. and you always get countries putting their national interests first.. and not to mention in a scenario when you have like 27 countries (if Im not mistaken that is the actual number).. you simply can not expect a fast, immediate response due to the different and various "national preferences" of each of them - from securing the borders, to national tax allowances, banning the cross border trade etc.. 

i truly hope this wil ruin the EU concept as we know it and leave only EU-free trade with no political strings attached.
 

PLUS.. the more bodies / members you have on the "board", the less likely it is that somebody will take a broad stand, declaring something relevant.. the situation becomes "the anonymity of a crowd" where everybody thinks, expects and relies that "somebody else" will take the step - thus totally ineffective and fruithless. Just "sh*t talks" what will and should be done - that nobody does.

Edited March 31, 2020 by crayxlp

[JimboJet]

23 hours ago, NIevo said:

It was just a joke, if you were a car person you would get it.

Fixed Or Repaired Daily

First On Race Day!

[NIevo]

18 minutes ago, JimboJet said:

First On Race Day!

If you mean first to plow into the crowd then yes, yes it is.

 

[NIevo]

In another stroke of great journalistic reporting, CBS had to apologize for airing footage from overcrowded Italian Hospitals in a story trying to pass it off as New York Hospital problems.

[jaisonline]

This is pretty sad, once you start putting names/faces behind those killed by the virus , it starts hitting home . I followed  this story when it came out as I was fascinated by it from a medical point of view, a great healthcare provider lost. 
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/new-york-neurosurgeon-death-coronavirus-mcdonald-twins/index.html

Very sad indeed. In my wife’s hospitals, older docs are told to STAY home to avoid this. They can see patients remotely. We’ll see if this changes with the upcoming vast amount of cases.

In another stroke of great journalistic reporting, CBS had to apologize for airing footage from overcrowded Italian Hospitals in a story trying to pass it off as New York Hospital problems.

Link ?

[jaisonline]

2 years of Keto diet went down the drain thanks to the quarantine.  At least that was my excuse for eating this huge bag of Lays

Yep. I hear ya. I had to put extra air in my 4 car tires today before using it to haul my arse around the block.

 

Lost 17 from Jan to early March. Gained 5 back last 2 weeks. Gotta hunker down now because I still want to fit in my skinny jeans & 15 year old Mitchell & Ness Phillies & Yankees Jerseys come the summer. Then again, I do have a XL Nick Foles SB Jersey for the fuller me. Oh, the Decisions that impact my weight.

[NIevo]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

Very sad indeed. In my wife’s hospitals, older docs are told to STAY home to avoid this. They can see patients remotely. We’ll see if this changes with the upcoming vast amount of cases.
Link ?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cbs-news-blames-editing-mistake-after-footage-from-italian-hospital-appears-in-report-on-new-york-coronavirus-crisis

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-news-admits-mistake-after-airing-footage-of-overcrowded-nyc-hospital-that-was-actually-in-italy

Just like last year when ABC aired footage of a gun range in Kentucky that they claimed to be fighting in Syria🙄

[junkrigger]

Absolutely disgusting medical corporation greed and profiteering over public wellbeing. Makes those hand sanitizer dudes look like good samaritans. 

https://www.propublica.org/article/taxpayers-paid-millions-to-design-a-low-cost-ventilator-for-a-pandemic-instead-the-company-is-selling-versions-of-it-overseas-

[Pet-Brick-er]

16 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Italy is making progress...

In social science statistics is only the first step to get closer to what can be called reality. This is the covid-19 test swabs and positive ratio: so far in Italy we've done 477.359 test swabs and found 101.739 positive cases, 21,31%. Of them 11.591 died, 11,39%.
Lombardy: 111.057 tests, 42.161 positives, 37,96%. 10.060.574 residents (0,419% positives).
Veneto: 99.941 tests, 8.724 positives, 8,73%. 4.905.854 residents (0,178% positives).
Emilia Romagna: 50.990 13.531 positive cases, 26,54%. 4.459.477 residents (0,303 positives).

Piedmont: 25.478 tests, 8.712 positives, 34,19%. 4.356.406 residents (0,200%).

Sicily: 14.758 tests, 1.555 positives, 10,54%. 4.999.891 residents (0,031%).

But in Italy test swabs are made only to people who show 2 or more symptoms. In northern Italy we saw lot of people dying with no time to get to the hospital, with no test swabs made. 
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/

Edited March 31, 2020 by Pet-Brick-er

[Mark Twain]

New models are set to be released today nationally, according to the NYT. The administration is trying to brace people for the news that "Even if all of the social distancing guidelines are followed “perfectly,” Dr. Birx said, the death toll in the nation could reach 100,000 to 200,000." 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-a737c70

[cladner]

34 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

New models are set to be released today nationally, according to the NYT. The administration is trying to brace people for the news that "Even if all of the social distancing guidelines are followed “perfectly,” Dr. Birx said, the death toll in the nation could reach 100,000 to 200,000." 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-a737c70

lol - maybe this is why walmart is finally screening employees showing up to work by checking their temperature. 

wth - they weren't already doing this?  further validating why you need to wear a mask when you go out in public.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-walmart-will-start-taking-all-employees-temperatures-before-shifts.html

[Phil B]

3 hours ago, cladner said:

<snip>

wth - they weren't already doing this?  further validating why you need to wear a mask when you go out in public.

<snip>

Well, that goes against what the WHO is advocating: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

BTW, I wear a mask when I go out into stores, even before my wife and daughter got sick. Daughter is in the last day of her 72hr-no-symptom-cool-off-period, wife not yet.

[Pseudoty]

I still don’t know how to time stamp YouTube videos but please go to 38:30 and watch for 1 minute And hear it from the horses mouth himself. Then we can finally put to rest the airborne transmission should we wear masks argument.

[cladner]

37 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Well, that goes against what the WHO is advocating: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

BTW, I wear a mask when I go out into stores, even before my wife and daughter got sick. Daughter is in the last day of her 72hr-no-symptom-cool-off-period, wife not yet.

WHO recommendations have to take into consideration supply constraints on masks. 

why issue a recommendation that has zero chance of being implemented due to lack of supply and could also precipitate societal panic?

 

CORONAVIRUS is transmitted via respiratory mechanism.    infected cough out droplets which contaminate surfaces or are inhaled by the uninfected. 

masks offer a chance to block both of these mechanisms of disease transmission.

 

in the countries that have this disease best under control, masks in public are a critical component of that strategy.

masks are also part of very pragmatic Dr. Scott Gottlieb's roadmap to reopen america.

 

protect yourself.  don't listen what you are being told.  do what makes sense.  by preventing yourself from getting infected or further spreading disease, you won't place a burden on the already taxed health care system.  wear a mask if you have one when you go out in public.  fabricate a mask if you don't have one.  even if no else is wearing a mask, do it.  when you go out to a store, put on a hoody, wear the hoody over your head.  when you get home from shopping, shed all the clothes and take a shower immediately.

 

another nursing home 40 miles down the highway just had 15 people die from COVID.  this is besides the 2 homes in the town next to mine which has one home up to 17 people infected.  if you have  a nursing home in your 30 mile radius that is infected, you better believe there are infected visiting the grocery, pharmacy, whatever store you are visiting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by cladner

[NIevo]

53 minutes ago, cladner said:

lol - maybe this is why walmart is finally screening employees showing up to work by checking their temperature. 

wth - they weren't already doing this?  further validating why you need to wear a mask when you go out in public.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-walmart-will-start-taking-all-employees-temperatures-before-shifts.html

Doesn't make a bit of difference when the stores don't even have sanitizer or wipes to use for shoppers coming in.  Its like the ridiculous closures of schools and businesses.  Makes no sense when you are still allowing thousands of panicked shoppers to pack in together to grab that last package of TP🙄

Also, articles out today from doctors and US Surgeon General advocating against using masks and gloves while out.