COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[jeff_14]

19 minutes ago, iahawks550 said:

In all fairness, the International Olympic Committee is also part of the UN, I think. They have had their fair share of scandals involving money.

 

In more fairness they are NOT part of the UN. They have cooperated on various things but that’s it. I’m pretty sure the US government and President have had more than a few spending scandals. I’ll stick with the WHO for unbiased information. 

[SpaceFan9]

3 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

I’ll stick with the WHO for unbiased information

 

good luck with that...

 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Quote

(from the WHO, Jan 14 2020): Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China.

 

I think one's trust in the WHO correlates with one's opinion on how likely it has been co-opted/corrupted by some member states such as the CCP.   

 

[iahawks550]

16 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

In more fairness they are NOT part of the UN. They have cooperated on various things but that’s it. I’m pretty sure the US government and President have had more than a few spending scandals. I’ll stick with the WHO for unbiased information. 

After doing a bit of research, the IOC are Permanent Observers. plenty of corrupt governments are members of the UN. I'm not sure why you are making the assumption that being part of the UN is something that makes an entity more believable.

[jeff_14]

17 minutes ago, SpaceFan9 said:

good luck with that...

 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

I think one's trust in the WHO correlates with one's opinion on how likely it has been co-opted/corrupted by some member states such as the CCP.   

 

That’s not bias, that’s reporting the best info available at the time. Tell me, is WHO still telling people that now? To quote Keynes, when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do?

[House Schubert]

I really like Legos.  I think they are great.

[jeff_14]

1 minute ago, iahawks550 said:

After doing a bit of research, the IOC are Permanent Observers. plenty of corrupt governments are members of the UN. I'm not sure why you are making the assumption that being part of the UN is something that makes an entity more believable.

Are you kidding me with this? Being an observer means you have next to no input on things. The WHO is the most reputable body on the planet for these matters. There is no better option. If you won’t listen to the experts then what’s the alternative, hopes and prayers? 

[MarleyMoose]

15 hours ago, NIevo said:

It was just a joke, if you were a car person you would get it.

Fixed Or Repaired Daily

Found On Road Dead

[iahawks550]

4 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Are you kidding me with this? Being an observer means you have next to no input on things. The WHO is the most reputable body on the planet for these matters. There is no better option. If you won’t listen to the experts then what’s the alternative, hopes and prayers? 

There are many experts in the world that don't work for WHO. It's not tough to do research to find that information. The WHO has flip-flopped in a one week period about the use of ibuprofen. It's dangerous when they use their status to disseminate information that hasn't been scientifically verified.

[fuzzy_bricks]

Just now, jeff_14 said:

Are you kidding me with this? Being an observer means you have next to no input on things. The WHO is the most reputable body on the planet for these matters. There is no better option. If you won’t listen to the experts then what’s the alternative, hopes and prayers? 

All these organizations/governments are made up of people and people aren't perfect.  They are subject to mistakes and outside influence.  I'm not saying that you shouldn't trust them but I wouldn't consider them infallible.

It seems that some people place quite a but of trust/reliance in these organizations/governments to have our, the people's, best interests at heart.  I don't.

[Ed Mack]

15 hours ago, NIevo said:

I'll trade you a crisp Gingerbread House for a sanitizer and 2 rolls of tp.

I have boxes of TP from my business.  Waiting for offers.

[Ed Mack]

4 hours ago, Pet-Brick-er said:

What I've learnt in 6 weeks of quarantena in Italy (we're keeping social distance since 02.21 and we moved from northern Italy to a house in the countryside in Sicily):

- change your way of life, also your way of thinking
- a pizza tastes very different now, a Neapolitan pizza is a dream now

- we have two Popes, it's the time to use both of them

- Berlusconi is immortal, bunga bunga is the key

- 50 x 41178 were not enough

- my chickens are worthy, they give us eggs no matter of famine, pandemic et cetera
- listen to Fauci, ok he's Sicilian blood but first of all he's a good and balanced scientist

https://youtu.be/_dXygGFCplk

Italy is making progress...

[NIevo]

7 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I have boxes of TP from my business.  Waiting for offers.

Unless you want a couple kids all I got left is guns/ammo🤔

59 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Are you kidding me with this? Being an observer means you have next to no input on things. The WHO is the most reputable body on the planet for these matters. There is no better option. If you won’t listen to the experts then what’s the alternative, hopes and prayers? 

Lol...now I know your off your meds.

[Ed Mack]

2 hours ago, Mark Twain said:

The World Health Organization is part of the United Nations and its books, accounting practices, and ethics are transparent and easily searchable by the public. That their funding is derived by member states in no way biases their mission or data. Please stop sowing distrust in institutions because of your personal beliefs.

Listen, Brad Pitt was a WHO member in World War Z...Enough said.

 

[Mark Twain]

All these organizations/governments are made up of people and people aren't perfect.  They are subject to mistakes and outside influence.  I'm not saying that you shouldn't trust them but I wouldn't consider them infallible.
It seems that some people place quite a but of trust/reliance in these organizations/governments to have our, the people's, best interests at heart.  I don't.

Trust is not the term I’d use here; reliance is. Most of the developed and developing world rely on the WHO’s expertise and resources to deal with international health crises like Covid. That’s why we, the US, fund WHO with billions each year. Simply put, there is no other equivalent organization. Yes, it is flawed. Yes, some members are bad actors. Neither of these should discount the validity of their reports. I’m point of fact, a sign that an organization is credible is when they address errors or mistakes quickly, like the ibuprofen thing and yes, like investigating and pushing China on its early reporting of Covid.

[NIevo]

2 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

 

Trust is not the term I’d use here; reliance is. Most of the developed and developing world rely on the WHO’s expertise and resources to deal with international health crises like Covid. That’s why we, the US, fund WHO with billions each year. Simply put, there is no other equivalent organization. Yes, it is flawed. Yes, some members are bad actors. Neither of these should discount the validity of their reports. I’m point of fact, a sign that an organization is credible is when they address errors or mistakes quickly, like the ibuprofen thing and yes, like investigating and pushing China on its early reporting of Covid.

 

Problem is what good is an organization that is constantly flip flopping, apologizing, redacting stories and has questionable members.  Maybe they are to quick to release info or take stances without knowing the truth or doing it for political reasons?

[Mark Twain]

Problem is what good is an organization that is constantly flip flopping, apologizing, redacting stories and has questionable members.  Maybe they are to quick to release info or take stances without knowing the truth or doing it for political reasons?

I’d say they’re pretty good. The WHO’s commitment to global health has improved the standard and quality of care in countless communities in many nations. You are, of course, free to not follow their advice or guidelines. But in terms of credibility on international health, they are and remain the standard.

[House Schubert]

3 hours ago, House Schubert said:

I really like Legos.  I think they are great.

I would just like to point out, that in normal times most of you would have eviscerated me for that (intentional) grammatical faux pa.   None of you will be convinced by the other, so can we get back to being pissed at each other about things that matter?  

Here, I will start:  I think the COVID catastrophe will have a tiny effect on Lego clearance prices in 2020.  Tell me how I am wrong.

[NIevo]

2 hours ago, Mark Twain said:

I’d say they’re pretty good. The WHO’s commitment to global health has improved the standard and quality of care in countless communities in many nations. You are, of course, free to not follow their advice or guidelines. But in terms of credibility on international health, they are and remain the standard.

I agree on that aspect of it in regards to the work they've done in countries that are especially poor and hard hit. 

As far as trusting in them for an absolute source of honest and unbiased medical advice and facts I'm much more skeptical especially after this.

[TANV]

This is another data point for tracking the spread and projection of COVID-19 across the country and within each individual state.  This is a project by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center attached to the University of Washington School of Medicine. 

I am not a medical professional nor am I a data scientist.  However, these people are and they're modeling the various ranges based on what data has been available here in the US and in the world.  It gives you an idea of the sense of scale, which makes for sobering read.

[NIevo]

29 minutes ago, TANV said:

This is another data point for tracking the spread and projection of COVID-19 across the country and within each individual state.  This is a project by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center attached to the University of Washington School of Medicine. 

I am not a medical professional nor am I a data scientist.  However, these people are and they're modeling the various ranges based on what data has been available here in the US and in the world.  It gives you an idea of the sense of scale, which makes for sobering read.

Interesting info but doesn't tell the whole story and it's a lot less bleak for most if you break it down by state.  58,000 of those 61,000 bed shortages are in New York alone.  Maybe the Gov. officials there shouldn't have been telling people to ignore the travel and large crowd warnings back in Feb.  Probably why the tents and Navy ships are there now.

Edited March 30, 2020 by NIevo

[$20 on joe vs dan]

9 minutes ago, NIevo said:

Doesn't tell the whole story and it's a lot less bleak for most if you break it down by state.  58,000 of those 61,000 bed shortages are in New York alone.  Maybe the Gov. officials there shouldn't have been telling people to ignore the travel and large crowd warnings back in Feb.  Probably why the tents and Navy ships are there now.

I want to know why it took almost a month to mobilize the Navy Hospital Vessels.  Seriously..THIS is a Homeland security issue...freakin China built a 10K bed hospital in 10 days with contamination zones.  And US Navy can't mobilize a ship docked on the same Coastline in less than a month?

At first I was thinking the delays was to make the ship contamination proof (which would still be too long , but reasonable); but now they are saying the Ship will only take on non-CV pts to help local hospital only focus on CV.

It's like we can send a drone missile attack on the other side of the planet in less than 24 hours...yet a few miles along the Atlantic Seaboard...

[NIevo]

5 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I want to know why it took almost a month to mobilize the Navy Hospital Vessels.  Seriously..THIS is a Homeland security issue...freakin China built a 10K bed hospital in 10 days with contamination zones.  And US Navy can't mobilize a ship docked on the same Coastline in less than a month?

At first I was thinking the delays was to make the ship contamination proof (which would still be too long , but reasonable); but now they are saying the Ship will only take on non-CV pts to help local hospital only focus on CV.

It's like we can send a drone missile attack on the other side of the planet in less than 24 hours...yet a few miles along the Atlantic Seaboard...

Because barely over a month ago the officials in New York were still saying there's nothing to worry about.  I'm not sure what the legal implications are for using military assets on our own soil?  Also the ship that is there now was down for maintenance.

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by NIevo

[$20 on joe vs dan]

3 minutes ago, NIevo said:

Because barely over a month ago the officials in New York were still saying there's nothing to worry about.  I'm not sure what the legal implications are for using military assets on our own soil?

I'm not talking about a tank or battle ship...it's the freakin Hospital SHip...unless there are massive gun turrets hiding under that large Building with the Red Cross on it.

Stop playing Devil's advocate..if there are policies in place that keeps US from using its own Hospital ships, then the system is broken...not a good excuse

Also if you're so into the timing...how about 2 weeks ago or even a week ago?  or is a week a "reasonable amount of time" to mobilize an emergency vessel...because I still think that's way too long.

Edited March 30, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Pseudoty]

President just said they are looking into need for “Masks for all”.

Narrative is changing 

[SpaceFan9]

iahawks550 posted the IHME link yesterday.  It's nice to see that at least the variance bars have tightened with the most recent update.  I still think this study is **** ****, though, and I say that as a professional in the medical industry and a data scientist.  They post their data, but they don't describe the statistical methods they use to arrive at their conclusions, there is no evidence of peer review (the "pics, or it didn't happen" test in my world), and as best as I can tell the information used by those models does not include intervention events.  With a proper description, I should be able to recreate their results, but there is not enough model description for me to do so in practice. In my state (MA) their models is not tracking the reported stats, nor being adapted to current conditions (again, as best as I can tell, because the model is opaque).

For good hard data, I've found this site to be valuable: https://covidtracking.com/.  The numbers I'm watching are confirmed case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths.  Hospitalization/dealts are running ~10%/~1% of confirmed cases.  If capacity (beds, ventilators, etc) is reached, then the death rate will go up.  If capacity can expand, the rate will likely stay static.  If the therapy trials prove to be effective, it will drop.  The big question, that no one knows the answer to yet, is what is the rate of asymptomatic cases which require neither testing or hospitialization?

In short, I suggest one treat these models with skepticism.  I think they are useful for predicting peak activity, but not total numbers. Don't despair or be led into fear by academic click-bait. 

p.s. ICU cases in MA are running 20-25% of total hospitalizations [cite: from my employer's daily update]

Edited March 30, 2020 by SpaceFan9
added ICU stat