COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[NIevo]

2 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

And this could be 3-4 times that with a higher death rate. 

Except nobody knows that and even then the models don't show a 90% contamination rate.  Death rate if everyone who contracts it would actually be known is going to be well under 1% in this country.  Heck, it's barely over 1% and there are probably 2-3x the amount of people who have it that aren't able to be tested.  Definitely not the extreme pandemic we should be taking these drastic measures for.

[NIevo]

[$20 on joe vs dan]

9 minutes ago, NIevo said:

Except nobody knows that and even then the models don't show a 90% contamination rate.  Death rate if everyone who contracts it would actually be known is going to be well under 1% in this country.  Heck, it's barely over 1% and there are probably 2-3x the amount of people who have it that aren't able to be tested.  Definitely not the extreme pandemic we should be taking these drastic measures for.

we should do a poll

those that believe we are all over-reacting, reacting just right for the data in hand, or not doing enough

I kinda think this is like in Marvel movie Endgame...what if half of everyone we know over the age of 65 were to vanish in the next year....acceptable?

or

Not acceptable but basically put the country in Great Depression mode w/ 10-15% unemployment, and a third of restaurants and other small businesses gone . 

[NIevo]

1 minute ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

we should do a poll

those that believe we are all over-reacting, reacting just right for the data in hand, or not doing enough

I kinda think this is like in Marvel movie Endgame...what if half of everyone we know over the age of 65 were to vanish in the next year....acceptable?

or

Not acceptable but basically put the country in Great Depression mode w/ 10-15% unemployment, and a third of restaurants and other small businesses gone . 

That might be an interesting poll.  Would also be interesting to see what country feels what way as well.  Seems more of our foreigner friends are of the "not doing enough" mentality.  Whats sad is that your not far off of what a lot are predicting in that 20-30% of all small businesses won't recover from this. 

Was talking with a coworker today and it's sad to think about but we were discussing the rate of suicide over the next few months in relation to everything going on.  With the constant negative news spins, job losses, economic collapses and social media I have a horrible feeling we are in for a huge spike.

 

[Ed Mack]

For any of you out there with small businesses....

https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/023595_comm_corona_virus_smallbiz_loan_final_revised.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3PKc1X8zgC4-7ARe9wUCHeRCnpIF2uYKmzvXvp4LRHRuJFUxMS6Igkvw8

https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business-guidance-loan-resources?fbclid=IwAR1Dh8gXXtZo7h2qDStp03l_fsVL1Ry6-R4EOBqS39PNkpDf5RcTrs7m3ow

[NIevo]

9 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

For any of you out there with small businesses....

https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/023595_comm_corona_virus_smallbiz_loan_final_revised.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3PKc1X8zgC4-7ARe9wUCHeRCnpIF2uYKmzvXvp4LRHRuJFUxMS6Igkvw8

https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business-guidance-loan-resources?fbclid=IwAR1Dh8gXXtZo7h2qDStp03l_fsVL1Ry6-R4EOBqS39PNkpDf5RcTrs7m3ow

More of the "stimulus" package should have gone to those type uses instead of the the general population.  Hard to say no to gov.(our) money but I know others could use it a lot more then some of us getting checks and still working a ton.

 

[Voltron]

Guys (and gals...) please take covid19 seriously. I understand that USA compared to UK / Europe /ROW has not yet conducted some measures which some would consider extreme ( I.e. mandatory lock downs, shutting down businesses etc) but things will go from bad to worse very soon due to the exponential effect of the virus.

Please try to implement social distancing, washing hands etc. This is not scare mongering, I am not a doctor or medical person, but I think what some people are failing to understand is that once the hospitals get full of covid patients, they will refuse to treat other patients with non covid19 symptoms unless it is a emergency treatment.

Already in europe, doctors are making choices to not treat over 60's / people with pre existing conditions and treating the younger patients due to them more likely to survive.

It is true that statistically Covid19 may not be as fatal as previous flu's or diseases, but you need to throw the statistics out of the window once you realise that even a "healthy" person who could have survive covid19 previ6, may not survive now due to the hospitals running out of ICU beds for patients, running out of medical PPE, shortage of ventilators etc. It doesn't matter what the fatality rate if you cant treated.

[HappyHawkeye]

1 hour ago, NIevo said:

More of the "stimulus" package should have gone to those type uses instead of the the general population.  Hard to say no to gov.(our) money but I know others could use it a lot more then some of us getting checks and still working a ton.

 

You can donate that money. That’s what we will be doing

[House Schubert]

2 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I think it's more context than numbers

Let's say there's a school shooting and there are a lot of deaths

That number of deaths is tiny compared to the number of children who die of hunger

WHich one will creates the public outrage? 

Yeah, but the thing is, there is ZERO % chance that I, or my close family and friends will die of hunger this year, so, you know... out of sight, out of mind.

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

21 minutes ago, House Schubert said:

Yeah, but the thing is, there is ZERO % chance that I, or my close family and friends will die of hunger this year, so, you know... out of sight, out of mind.

 

That's my point.  Context matters more than just numbers.

CV is a real threat to anyone over 65 (despite social economic situation)...and almost everyone have loved ones that fall into that group

[$20 on joe vs dan]

44 minutes ago, HappyHawkeye said:

You can donate that money. That’s what we will be doing

how about purchase a 3D printer and materials to make key pieces that support ventilators or masks.  If thousands of household do this, could really move the needle.

or purchase hundreds of dollars worth of giftcards from your favorite restaurants at risk

my point being...there is a lot of outside the box thinking that could be done to make meaningful contributions

[Bold-Arrow]

Federal social distancing guidelines extended to April 30.. God help me, those kids will be the end of me . 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 minute ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Federal social distancing guidelines extended to April 30.. God help me, those kids will be the end of me . 

DId they change the date of Easter...I could have sworn Easter came before April30.  

[Bold-Arrow]

Just now, $20 on joe vs dan said:

DId they change the date of Easter...I could have sworn Easter came before April30.  

That was funny, but at least it is the right call , so moving on . 

[jbacunn]

3 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

So this model predicts about 80,000 deaths from Coronavirus.  I'm just wondering why people didn't make a bigger deal a year or two back about the regular flu?

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Right but keep in mind that's 80K deaths with no one trying to do anything to prevent spreading the flu except for those that get the vaccine. The question that can never be answered is what would have happened if we didn't do social distancing, working from home, and stay at home orders for Covid19. I think we can all agree that it has done some good but how much? We'll never know. 

[NIevo]

1 minute ago, jbacunn said:

Right but keep in mind that's 80K deaths with no one trying to do anything to prevent spreading the flu except for those that get the vaccine. The question that can never be answered is what would have happened if we didn't do social distancing, working from home, and stay at home orders for Covid19. I think we can all agree that it has done some good but how much? We'll never know. 

I think we will have to look at some of the countries that have basically said screw it and live somewhat normal.  Brazil and Sweden are the 2 that will be interesting to see the numbers out of.

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Pretty grim.

The headlines went from "Number of Infected" to "Number of Deaths"

[Mark Twain]

So this model predicts about 80,000 deaths from Coronavirus.  I'm just wondering why people didn't make a bigger deal a year or two back about the regular flu?
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

It’s complicated. As it states in the article, many flu deaths aren’t recorded as being from the flu. The scientists use a number of models and some of it is speculative so it’s more of a guess than a precise number.

But this isn’t the flu. What concerns health officials is how immersive and overwhelming this pandemic is. Hospitals have started running out of space, vital equipment and staff and this in turn creates the domino like effect of a certain lose of care for those non-covid patients seeking treatment. There may be no telling how many deaths occurred because of this lose of care for people who would have normally been treated and released but cannot find the care they need currently.

[Ed Mack]

6 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

It’s complicated. As it states in the article, many flu deaths aren’t recorded as being from the flu. The scientists use a number of models and some of it is speculative so it’s more of a guess than a precise number.

But this isn’t the flu. What concerns health officials is how immersive and overwhelming this pandemic is. Hospitals have started running out of space, vital equipment and staff and this in turn creates the domino like effect of a certain lose of care for those non-covid patients seeking treatment. There may be no telling how many deaths occurred because of this lose of care for people who would have normally been treated and released but cannot find the care they need currently.

I get it...For some, this is serious sh*t.  No doubt.  One issue I see lately is how these hospitals are starting to classify deaths.  Like Italy, there are some reports coming out that US hospitals are lumping in all deaths in a hospital as Coronavirus deaths.  Similarly, many flu deaths are thrown in with pneumonia deaths because the pneumonia forms because of the flu.  

As for the extension till the end of April...I expected it.  I also expect that will be the last extension.  It is a smart move to extend it, but there will be tremendous pressure come May to start reopening the country if we plateau and the numbers start dropping.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

20 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

It’s complicated. As it states in the article, many flu deaths aren’t recorded as being from the flu. The scientists use a number of models and some of it is speculative so it’s more of a guess than a precise number.

But this isn’t the flu. What concerns health officials is how immersive and overwhelming this pandemic is. Hospitals have started running out of space, vital equipment and staff and this in turn creates the domino like effect of a certain lose of care for those non-covid patients seeking treatment. There may be no telling how many deaths occurred because of this lose of care for people who would have normally been treated and released but cannot find the care they need currently.

Yes, one thing is clear; if regions did not social distance;

without a doubt the hospitals would have been overwhelmed resulting in a domino effect for everyone needing medical care

Senior Homes would have been overwhelmed with cases and deaths

These MAY still happen to some extent (and NYC is already there)...but we can all imagine much worse if the country didn't initiate social distancing. 

Curious, does anyone here doubt the above?

Edited March 29, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[brickolodon]

For now I see only bragging no results! They start talking about 2.5 mil to excuse themself when 100k will die? Why that number biggest number is in Italy and 10k

[$20 on joe vs dan]

3 hours ago, NIevo said:

according to the recent Movie: Ford vs Ferrari (a decent car flick, imo)

Ford plants put out 3 out of every 5 bombers US sent Europe to win WWII...say what you will; but Ford once represented the best of American ingenuity.

Near where I live, Mare Island was a Naval ship yard that produced a new Naval vessel EVERY MONTH for the war in the Pacific.

The US led the world through the Industrial Revolution with roots in Getting it done and getting it done fast.  

[$20 on joe vs dan]

7 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

For now I see only bragging no results! They start talking about 2.5 mil to excuse themself when 100k will die? Why that number biggest number is in Italy and 10k

Yeah I saw that too...when did 100,000 death meant any kind of "victory"?

talk about spin...I can't imagine how hard it will be to have to tell my 8year old that his grandparents died.

[Mark Twain]

I get it...For some, this is serious sh*t.  No doubt.  One issue I see lately is how these hospitals are starting to classify deaths.  Like Italy, there are some reports coming out that US hospitals are lumping in all deaths in a hospital as Coronavirus deaths.  Similarly, many flu deaths are thrown in with pneumonia deaths because the pneumonia forms because of the flu.  
As for the extension till the end of April...I expected it.  I also expect that will be the last extension.  It is a smart move to extend it, but there will be tremendous pressure come May to start reopening the country if we plateau and the numbers start dropping.

I don’t disagree. Already we’re seeing massive numbers in terms of unemployment. 2 trillion is a lot of money but this is only the first stimulus. We’re likely going to see several more packages in the coming month. But, yeah, come May 1st if the country is still shuttered I don’t know what people are going to be able to spend their money on besides Tpee and alcohol.

[cladner]

8 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

I don’t disagree. Already we’re seeing massive numbers in terms of unemployment. 2 trillion is a lot of money but this is only the first stimulus. We’re likely going to see several more packages in the coming month. But, yeah, come May 1st if the country is still shuttered I don’t know what people are going to be able to spend their money on besides Tpee and alcohol.

lol - how 'bout sum overpriced retired LEGO via the inter-neht sounds like a good idea to me.