COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

how are folks dealing w/ meals while presumably shelter-in-place?

My household has 2 fridges stocked so we've been cooking own meals for about 2 weeks now. it sucks.

But I figure safer than getting food delivered...no telling how sanitary the food is...businesses are so desperate that I can easily see a manager turning  a blind eye to a sick employee.

 

We only order dishes that are thoroughly cooked. So no salad or cold sandwich

[fuzzy_bricks]

Since we're talking CNN.

[iahawks550]

US and state specific data and projections

This seems to give a realistic timeline, along with best/worst case scenarios. Buckle up.

[jaisonline]

Some folks to educate themselves about the media  

CNN is pretty far left.  If they go any further, they will be fully left.  Factual reporting has been mixed.  Some online talent is worse than others like Cooper.  Not only does Cooper look like he's holding a fart 24x7, he's awful at reporting facts.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cnn/

Fox News is pretty much at the Right.  Factual reporting has been mixed.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/fox-news/

 

look for media sources that are least biased.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/factcheck/

 

at the very least, go for a reputable paper / web site that might mean left or right but report facts (just sift through the author opinions in each article). Insert Washington Post here and similar here.

[iahawks550]

I checked out the mediabias website and did some research on them/their foundation. It seems they have a pretty sizeable donations to causes that are most definitely left/right issues. I won't go any further, as it's appears I'm attempting to start an argument.

It may be irrelevant, but impartiality is tough to find when there is big money involved.

[redghostx]

I checked out the mediabias website and did some research on them/their foundation. It seems they have a pretty sizeable donations to causes that are most definitely left/right issues. I won't go any further, as it's appears I'm attempting to start an argument.
It may be irrelevant, but impartiality is tough to find when there is big money involved.

Besides the explicit bias, each person has to read through the implicit bias of most of the news services too. It's not impossible, just use your own brain.

[ravenb99]

2 hours ago, iahawks550 said:

US and state specific data and projections

This seems to give a realistic timeline, along with best/worst case scenarios. Buckle up.

nothing like some peak death charts to wake up too.  Does seem pretty accurate though based on what the numbers are at.  Pretty interesting to see some of the states I follow based on their cases / deaths so far versus the hospital situation.  Can tell some states have more hospitals or larger capacity based on the expected dates to be overrun.

 

 

[SpaceFan9]

3 hours ago, iahawks550 said:

US and state specific data and projections

This seems to give a realistic timeline, along with best/worst case scenarios. Buckle up.

I think I've reached the point where I don't trust these models anymore.  The variance on the '# of beds needed' is so large as to make the prediction almost meaningless.  As best as I can tell, it also assumes that the capacity numbers are static.  For example, the number of "ICU beds" at one local hospital have been tripled by re-purposing other wings that have seen lower usage because elective procedures have been delayed. I don't think the model takes these adaptations into account.

Meanwhile, we're also awaiting results from multiple clinical trials of treatments such as hydrochloroquine+azithromycin.

So yes, hunker down for a bumpy ride.  But I'm treating all of these pretty graphs with much more skepticism going forward.

[Jackson]

Every time I see the phrase "hunker down," I take a shot.

[SpaceFan9]

5 minutes ago, Jackson said:

Every time I see the phrase "hunker down," I take a shot.

glad I could help

[TheOrcKing]

How Disney handles the Coronavirus.

[iahawks550]

3 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said:

I think I've reached the point where I don't trust these models anymore.  The variance on the '# of beds needed' is so large as to make the prediction almost meaningless.  As best as I can tell, it also assumes that the capacity numbers are static.  For example, the number of "ICU beds" at one local hospital have been tripled by re-purposing other wings that have seen lower usage because elective procedures have been delayed. I don't think the model takes these adaptations into account.

Meanwhile, we're also awaiting results from multiple clinical trials of treatments such as hydrochloroquine+azithromycin.

So yes, hunker down for a bumpy ride.  But I'm treating all of these pretty graphs with much more skepticism going forward.

Agreed on everything. These are just models based on available data at this point. But, that's why they also have upper and lower ranges which will undoubtedly shrink as more data points come in 

[Ed Mack]

So this model predicts about 80,000 deaths from Coronavirus.  I'm just wondering why people didn't make a bigger deal a year or two back about the regular flu?

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

[$20 on joe vs dan]

15 hours ago, redghostx said:

16 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

how are folks dealing w/ meals while presumably shelter-in-place?
My household has 2 fridges stocked so we've been cooking own meals for about 2 weeks now. it sucks.
But I figure safer than getting food delivered...no telling how sanitary the food is...businesses are so desperate that I can easily see a manager turning  a blind eye to a sick employee.
 

I cook most of the time and my wife orders take out the other times. There are times I just need a sushi or pizza fix.

Sushi is a bit risky, but I believe any good sushi chef has also mastered proper hygiene (ie go to a legit Japanese restaurant)

 

[redghostx]

Sushi is a bit risky, but I believe any good sushi chef has also mastered proper hygiene (ie go to a legit Japanese restaurant)
 

Lots of good options in the Vancouver area, and I trust my sushi places.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

There was a time that everything Henry Ford needed to build a car was available in the State of Michigan.

I am greatly dismayed at our country's inability to build paper masks during this time of need.

I'm not talking about cars, or IPads, or even TVs...I am talking about a paper mask with a filter, a plastic/rubber flap/valve, and rubber bands.

[jeff_14]

16 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

So this model predicts about 80,000 deaths from Coronavirus.  I'm just wondering why people didn't make a bigger deal a year or two back about the regular flu?

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Because the regular flu is a known event with a great deal of immunity and won’t infect as many people. Some models predict anywhere from 30-70% of humanity will contract this virus this year. Nowhere near that catches the regular flu. Just look at how difficult it is for the health systems to cope with the small amount so far.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

2 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Because the regular flu is a known event with a great deal of immunity and won’t infect as many people. Some models predict anywhere from 30-70% of humanity will contract this virus this year. Nowhere near that catches the regular flu. Just look at how difficult it is for the health systems to cope with the small amount so far.

I think it's more context than numbers

Let's say there's a school shooting and there are a lot of deaths

That number of deaths is tiny compared to the number of children who die of hunger

WHich one will creates the public outrage? 

[exracer327]

18 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

There was a time that everything Henry Ford needed to build a car was available in the State of Michigan.

I am greatly dismayed at our country's inability to build paper masks during this time of need.

I'm not talking about cars, or IPads, or even TVs...I am talking about a paper mask with a filter, a plastic/rubber flap/valve, and rubber bands.

I absolutely agree. 

We used to be a country that could build anything we set our hearts to build.  But we've become a consumer driven country, unable to build most of what we require.  The steal industry was the first major red flag I saw.  I had no idea four steal companies went bankrupt while Obama was president.  I'm not blaming him, but that was detrimental and I can't believe such a necessary industry was allowed to collapse.  It seems quite a few more were allowed to collapse as well over the past few decades.

We need to rectify this ASAP.  I'm betting China will be loosing some industries in the next few years.

 

[jeff_14]

9 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I think it's more context than numbers

Let's say there's a school shooting and there are a lot of deaths

That number of deaths is tiny compared to the number of children who die of hunger

WHich one will creates the public outrage? 

On that point a nice consequence of this shutdown is crime is way way down.....for now. 

Neither hunger deaths nor shooting deaths are a risk to the majority of the population, nor are they new threats for which we have no experience or, apparently, preparation. 30-70% of humanity is not at risk of being shot or going hungry suddenlyS

[NIevo]

22 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

I think it's more context than numbers

Let's say there's a school shooting and there are a lot of deaths

That number of deaths is tiny compared to the number of children who die of hunger

WHich one will creates the public outrage? 

This is correct.  If this would have been named a flu strain we wouldn't be in nearly such a panic.  Because it has a new "scary" name the media is able to run with it and create the false panic we are seeing now.

[jeff_14]

3 minutes ago, NIevo said:

This is correct.  If this would have been named a flu strain we wouldn't be in nearly such a panic.  Because it has a new "scary" name the media is able to run with it and create the false panic we are seeing now.

Grossly incorrect. This is not like a regular flu. As stated earlier, there is no existing immunity and a risk of the majority of people getting it. The hospitals don’t get overloaded and short of respirators for “regular flus”

[NIevo]

33 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Because the regular flu is a known event with a great deal of immunity and won’t infect as many people. Some models predict anywhere from 30-70% of humanity will contract this virus this year. Nowhere near that catches the regular flu. Just look at how difficult it is for the health systems to cope with the small amount so far.

Actually you would be partially wrong.  H1N1 affected a range of 20-30% of the entire US population as a fact, not a "model".

[jeff_14]

1 minute ago, NIevo said:

Actually you would be partially wrong.  H1N1 affected a range of 20-30% of the entire US population as a fact, not a "model".

And this could be 3-4 times that with a higher death rate. 

[NIevo]

3 minutes ago, jeff_14 said:

Grossly incorrect. This is not like a regular flu. As stated earlier, there is no existing immunity and a risk of the majority of people getting it. The hospitals don’t get overloaded and short of respirators for “regular flus”

You are incorrect.  There is no natural immunity to flu/influenza either.  Nobody knows how we are going to react to this down the road as far as being immune once we have it.  Hospitals do in fact get overloaded during flu seasons in some areas and the respirator shortage is not as wide-spread as the media would like you to think.