COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[Alpinemaps]

Catastrophic numbers from Italy. 
27.850 infected, 2.150 dead. Those are not good numbers. 
Where are all the doctors who stated this was a 0.1% mortality rate flu-like virus? I don't hear nothing. 
If this virus spreads (which it does) & it is not stopped... it will cost millions upon millions of lives. Hate to be pessimistic about this but just do a quick calculation, this is not looking good! It's not the first time millions died because of a disease.
I guess the world deserved it. At least we, the west, certainly did. We brought all this suffering to this world & now a microorganism is trapping us in our houses. That's what I call revenge. 

First of all, 25 million people died in Europe during the Black Plague. So, not the first time.

Secondly - its not nearly that black and white. Mortality depends on a lot of factors - age of population, immunocompromised, etc. A country with a much higher number of young, healthy people will have a much better shot than say Italy, with over 20% over 60, and a very touchy cultural.

[Shortbus311]

First of all, 25 million people died in Europe during the Black Plague. So, not the first time.

Secondly - its not nearly that black and white. Mortality depends on a lot of factors - age of population, immunocompromised, etc. A country with a much higher number of young, healthy people will have a much better shot than say Italy, with over 20% over 60, and a very touchy cultural.

In his defense, just this once haha, he did say it's not the first time this happened.

[Ed Mack]

2 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said:

Yup.  We had water rationing by street address, too, where I grew up.  'course, it was easy to spot the water-cheaters----they were the only ones with green lawns. 😃

That was me.  Sorry.  Guilty as charged.  I feel so bad now.  

[elmaslıefendi]

10 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

First of all, 25 million people died in Europe during the Black Plague. So, not the first time.

That's exactly what I said.

11 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Secondly - its not nearly that black and white. Mortality depends on a lot of factors - age of population, immunocompromised, etc. A country with a much higher number of young, healthy people will have a much better shot than say Italy, with over 20% over 60, and a very touchy cultural.

I hope you're right. It'll still be millions. As soon as this thing spreads exponentially, the hospitals won't have nearly enough capacity. People will literally die in their homes without help arriving. In Italy this is already the case with only 28k infected.

We have 27.000 ambulant beds here in Germany. I wonder how this country will be when 70% are infected. That's what our government said. And if the government says 70%, we all know it's gonna be everyone. I can't imagine. Not trying to dramatize this, but we should all be aware of what's coming, it will get really uncomfortable.

[Ed Mack]

26 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

Catastrophic numbers from Italy. 

27.850 infected, 2.150 dead. Those are not good numbers. 

Where are all the doctors who stated this was a 0.1% mortality rate flu-like virus? I don't hear nothing. 

If this virus spreads (which it does) & it is not stopped... it will cost millions upon millions of lives. Hate to be pessimistic about this but just do a quick calculation, this is not looking good! It's not the first time millions died because of a disease.

I guess the world deserved it. At least we, the west, certainly did. We brought all this suffering to this world & now a microorganism is trapping us in our houses. That's what I call revenge. 

Yes, very bad.  A study from 2015 by the UN said the 28.6% of the Italian population was over 60 years of age, the second oldest in the world.  

[Ed Mack]

A little perspective on Italy that might help explain the high death rate.  It was from a discussion I had last summer with a friend who just came back from Italy after a two week vacation with his parents, who still live there.  He told me that while Italy is a beautiful country with tons of history and charm, those traditions also cause issues.  A neighbor died and the body sat in the house for two days.  Some little wagon/truck thing came and picked up the body eventually, but there was a lack of urgency people were very nonchalant about it.  At the time I thought it was funny that a dead body was just sitting in the house, but I guess people have their reasons.  It's that kind of tradition that could be hurting Italy right now.

[Sauromosis]

A little good news in the gloom 

 

[elmaslıefendi]

2 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

A little perspective on Italy that might help explain the high death rate.  It was from a discussion I had last summer with a friend who just came back from Italy after a two week vacation with his parents, who still live there.  He told me that while Italy is a beautiful country with tons of history and charm, those traditions also cause issues.  A neighbor died and the body sat in the house for two days.  Some little wagon/truck thing came and picked up the body eventually, but there was a lack of urgency people were very nonchalant about it.  At the time I thought it was funny that a dead body was just sitting in the house, but I guess people have their reasons.  It's that kind of tradition that could be hurting Italy right now.

I think it's more than that. In a pandemic not only traditions or behaviours count. It's a big part for sure, but not everything.

My advice to everyone: Please be aware that not only the elderly are at risk. If you or anyone in your family has Asthma, a problem with their heart, very, very low blood pressure or bad blood circulation (I have those last 2 issues for example) be really careful. Don't assume every kid, teen or someone in their 20s is safe. I just hope we all get through this without a big loss. Good luck to everyone.

[jaisonline]

Funniest reply to that tweet, “ And please stop eating anything that moves...”.

 

10 minutes ago, sauromosis said:

A little good news in the gloom 

 

 

[Darth_Raichu]

37 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

That's exactly what I said.

I hope you're right. It'll still be millions. As soon as this thing spreads exponentially, the hospitals won't have nearly enough capacity. People will literally die in their homes without help arriving. In Italy this is already the case with only 28k infected.

We have 27.000 ambulant beds here in Germany. I wonder how this country will be when 70% are infected. That's what our government said. And if the government says 70%, we all know it's gonna be everyone. I can't imagine. Not trying to dramatize this, but we should all be aware of what's coming, it will get really uncomfortable.

Given how close Italy is to Germany, maybe it is time to build some new emergency hospitals a la in Wuhan.

I was reading the news and the stories of overwhelmed medical facilities and triage in Italy are heartbreaking

 

[Ed Mack]

8 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

I think it's more than that. In a pandemic not only traditions or behaviours count. It's a big part for sure, but not everything.

My advice to everyone: Please be aware that not only the elderly are at risk. If you or anyone in your family has Asthma, a problem with their heart, very, very low blood pressure or bad blood circulation (I have those last 2 issues for example) be really careful. Don't assume every kid, teen or someone in their 20s is safe. I just hope we all get through this without a big loss. Good luck to everyone.

Millennials and Generation X'ers have to think about Mom and Dad and Nana and Pop Pop...Or as I would call them, Babci and Dziadek.

[benjamin4172]

Also unfortunately italy kind of underestimated the problem at first. And also the health care system had severe problems before hand.

But I am getting really pissed about people that even now wont get the severness of this problem. I just think modern, western well fed people just cannot comprehend that there can be something ending their lifestyle like that. They never felt hunger, fear of their lives etc...

 

Btw those ambulant beds in Germany you are talking about...80% of them are already taken -but not by corona patients-just the regular patients that already were there. 

[Alpinemaps]

I hope you're right. It'll still be millions. As soon as this thing spreads exponentially, the hospitals won't have nearly enough capacity. People will literally die in their homes without help arriving. In Italy this is already the case with only 28k infected.
We have 27.000 ambulant beds here in Germany. I wonder how this country will be when 70% are infected. That's what our government said. And if the government says 70%, we all know it's gonna be everyone. I can't imagine. Not trying to dramatize this, but we should all be aware of what's coming, it will get really uncomfortable.

Yeah, my bad. I misread what you said. Sorry ‘bout that!

[Mark Twain]

The death rates in Italy and now the growing number in Spain are deeply concerning. Yes, Italy had an aging population but Japan’s is substantially older and they not only have curbed infections but kept deaths low. In part the outbreak of SARS impacted and prepared China, South Korea, and Japan for social distancing.

[JimboJet]

If 80% of the people that get it show little to no symptoms, then the tipping point is probably keeping the total infection to less than 25% of the population, otherwise you have ~ 5% of the total population needing nearly simultaneous treatment and I don't think any country has that level of hospital capacity.

I agree Spain looks to be on a trajectory to match Italy.

[Vincemarche]

The situation is tragic, the hospital facilities are collapsing. At this moment the mortality rate is close to 10% compared to those infected. You have to maintain social detachment. Is critical. Do it early.

[Vincemarche]

9 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

First of all, 25 million people died in Europe during the Black Plague. So, not the first time.

Secondly - its not nearly that black and white. Mortality depends on a lot of factors - age of population, immunocompromised, etc. A country with a much higher number of young, healthy people will have a much better shot than say Italy, with over 20% over 60, and a very touchy cultural.

I'm sorry to give you the news that the virus is killing people under 50 years of age ... maybe they don't tell you?

[kumas]

3 hours ago, Vincemarche said:

I'm sorry to give you the news that the virus is killing people under 50 years of age ... maybe they don't tell you?

Almost all of younger who died had other health problems like cancer treatment

[Vincemarche]

4 minutes ago, kumas said:

Almost all of younger who died had other health problems like cancer treatment

But what does this mean ??? Without Covid 19 they would still be alive ..... so what did they die of?

[House Schubert]

Amazon temporarily (till April 5th) restricts inbound shipments to "household staples, medical supplies, and other high-demand products "

[brickvoyeur]

South Korea is the lead on testing for this. Their numbers still suck, but they are certainly more realistic than countries that are only testing those who show obvious symptoms.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

They provide daily updates. This is the March 17th update.

We just had our third child... he is 3 weeks old today. Our other children are almost 4, and 22 months. The world rate of 0% fatalities thus far for people under 10 is helping keep things calm on my end. I fear for my parents and grandparents, but I must do everything I can to protect my babies.

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by brickvoyeur

[kumas]

21 minutes ago, Vincemarche said:

But what does this mean ??? Without Covid 19 they would still be alive ..... so what did they die of?

They died bcs they were old / weak, it has been natural process for every living organism on this planet for million years.

[CosmicSpeed]

12 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Millennials and Generation X'ers have to think about Mom and Dad and Nana and Pop Pop...Or as I would call them, Babci and Dziadek.

As a Millennial ('85) , I think it's also reverse. My Mother-in-law and Grandmother-in-law both still want to go shopping. They think we "might" have to cancel her 80th party in April. Yes, I know this is from the guy who said we would go to Disney unless it closed, but here we are, and we are following the rules.

It's pretty much everyone, the news needs to stop "calling out" people based on when they were born, or what political affiliation they are. Its no better that basing it on the weight of a person, color of their eyes, et al.

[BillyBricks]

1 hour ago, brickvoyeur said:

We just had our third child... he is 3 weeks old today. Our other children are almost 4, and 22 months. The world rate of 0% fatalities thus far for people under 10 is helping keep things calm on my end. I fear for my parents and grandparents, but I must do everything I can to protect my babies.

 

We just had our second child...last week (the other is 23 months). Our hospital stay was intense, especially when a nurse made the mistake of revealing that they had their first confirmed case our first day there. We have had to make a lot of choices that potential visitors have sometimes questioned as extreme ("Okay, but can't I just..."), but as you said, it's about protecting ourselves and the babies. 

[BricksBrotha]

my wife is 7mo pregnant. We Self quarantined ourselves for 21 days minimum this past Sat. Not going to wait around and let people with alterior motives tell you what to do. You alone need to be your own biggest health advocate.

here is some great info that may help some of you less ‘science’ oriented people understand the possible severity if we ignore this.

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu?  Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...   

It has to do with RNA sequencing....  I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”.  The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system.  This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year...  you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.  

Novel viruses, come from animals....  the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu).  But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans(zoonotic)... then it’s a problem,  Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off. 

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is  from an infected animal to a human before  it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase.  And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu.    It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.  

Fast forward. 

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people.  At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human.   Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket.  And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza....  this one is slippery.  And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this.  History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics.  Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu. 

Factoid:  Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.  

Be smart folks... 

#flattenthecurve.  Stay home folks.