iahawks550 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 That is some absolutely great analysis. I really enjoy reading stuff from people who know the subject matter. Instead of getting links from garbage websites and scare videos. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortbus311 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 State of VA has issued a State Of Emergency and have left it up to the schools to decide whether to stay open. I could understand the schools being uncertain about what/when to close, but they should be canceling the non essential after school related events (sports/plays/music).Our schools in Virginia Beach have already canceled all after school activities. Along with my child's soccer program (non-school organization). They also have a staff only day on Monday for cleaning and to allow the teachers to prepare take home assignments in the case of closure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sauromosis Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 One of our local districts is coming back after spring break on Monday...seems like an unusual decision. I know that there may be poorer kids in this district who rely on that daily lunch and whose parents can't afford to miss work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BricksBrotha Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) 49 minutes ago, iahawks550 said: That is some absolutely great analysis. I really enjoy reading stuff from people who know the subject matter. Instead of getting links from garbage websites and scare videos. Our company is doing work from home unless you are critical to business. Well guess who’s at work today? Currently working on a test that detects cardiac markers associated with heart disease. Takes a few hours of prep and incubation time then it’s passed through a spectrophotometer that translates the light waves into numbers or OD’s (optical density) 0.049 being negative, 0.500-2.000 strong positive. 0.100-.0499 would be consider cut off samples/suspect samples/usually considered weak positives. also working on using gold particles and disease specific nano chips for detection markers but that’s all experimental and years down the road. Interesting how the CDC couldn’t get a simple PCR to work. My guess is there was no competition to the 3rd party awarded the contract. CDC knew who it was going to choose regardless the competition. Edited March 13, 2020 by BricksBrotha Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 13 hours ago, brickolodon said: It will be fun to re-read this topic when coronavirus is over. Honestly, this was one of the worst interviews I have seen. The host and "doctor" were all about fear mongering. Three months of food? For what? Is martial law coming? This sort of hype needs to stop. It's serious for sure, but let's not get carried away. Social distancing and just simple sanitizing steps will slow this SOB. Back in 2009 , the H1N1 did a lot of damage but nobody acted like this. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly 61 million people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths. Worldwide, up to 575,400 people died from pandemic swine flu. That was some serious crap, but people were not acting like this. Maybe it was better leadership or maybe it was the lack of media attacking the leadership to make them look bad. The truth is somewhere in between. 5 hours ago, brickolodon said: https://apple.news/AKvqqClDARUyJ_8fFyvaO4w Don’t take it personal most of panic from media or looks like... You are helping as well Mr. Sunshine. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil B Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickolodon Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 You are helping as well Mr. Sunshine.Sorry, my bad damn media tricked me again...Friend of mine shared this https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/11/financial-crisis-coronavirus-italy/?fbclid=IwAR1joTcMbjjcqiitxzS8qm_t95pHeb6z-Qkh8-URPKWi9O0eBrgyYaqLvRAAbout panic buying https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/why-the-invisible-coronavirus-threat-triggers-hoarding-behavior-1979348/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BricksBrotha Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Ohio state officials now believe there are 100,000 cases or more in their state. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ohio-likely-has-100000-cases-says-health-official/article31063164.ece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KShine Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ed Mack said: That was some serious crap, but people were not acting like this. Maybe it was better leadership or maybe it was the lack of media attacking the leadership to make them look bad. The truth is somewhere in between. The current situation is bad (to what extent exactly is uncertain, but unquestionably bad). Up until this, an honest view would be that things have been pretty great in this country the last 3 years (other than the media, and half the country simply hating everything/anything the president does). And yet every single day since his election has been portrayed as a national crisis/disaster (which it hasn't been). So now that something truly bad has happened - look out. I don't believe that anyone else would have left us with fewer cases of the virus (and nothing anyone else would have done can compare to the benefits of the early shutdown of travel from China). Yes, he says absolutely awful things (if we let them off the boat our numbers will go up), but it is that drive (even if it is selfish) that benefits our nation. He might not care about anyone, but he wants to succeed, and although his motivations are likely far from pure and wholesome - that doesn't really matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonkalin Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I live in Columbus. I was talking to my neighbor yesterday who is a health prof at OSU. She said that there is a formula that is used that says that if a virus is spread person to person in a community environment with social interaction that studies have shown that typically it means that 1% of the population is invected. Then they did the math of the population of Ohio x 1% and they came up with the 100,000 number. I'm no expert but that's what someone who is supposed to know more told me. I asked her the exact same question of how did Governor DeWine come up with the 100,000 infected number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BricksBrotha Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gonkalin said: I live in Columbus. I was talking to my neighbor yesterday who is a health prof at OSU. She said that there is a formula that is used that says that if a virus is spread person to person in a community environment with social interaction that studies have shown that typically it means that 1% of the population is invected. Then they did the math of the population of Ohio x 1% and they came up with the 100,000 number. I'm no expert but that's what someone who is supposed to know more told me. I asked her the exact same question of how did Governor DeWine come up with the 100,000 infected number. 'Health Professor" is pretty vague. She could be teaching theoretical dietary habits for all we know. I dont claim to be an 'expert' but I do have a degree in both Medical Biology and Allied Health Science. I have worked in the biotech industry straight out of college for 14 years, at the same company. I work with diagnostic immunassays. The formula the Ohio State health Officials are using is a proven formula based on centuries of data collected throughout history. Now this current society we live in seeming loves to deny/forget/refuse to learn from History. The calculation is necessary since right now, its impossible to test everyone. That number could be lower and could be higher. The reality is, the prediction of 100,000 is closer to actual cases than say 7500. The number will only go up if people continue to feel like it wont effect them, its only being overblown etc and dont take necessary precautions. If the state officials are confident enough to release those numbers, with the way State agencies run, i would safely predict their number is actually very conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TANV Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, BricksBrotha said: Now this current society we live in seeming loves to deny/forget/refuse to learn from History. The calculation is necessary since right now, its impossible to test everyone. That number could be lower and could be higher. The reality is, the prediction of 100,000 is closer to actual cases than say 7500. The number will only go up if people continue to feel like it wont effect them, its only being overblown etc and dont take necessary precautions. If the state officials are confident enough to release those numbers, with the way State agencies run, i would safely predict their number is actually very conservative. “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” - Albert A. Bartlett It seems appropriate at this time, even more so that CU-Boulder has cancelled today due to confirming 1 case of COVID-19 on campus. The numbers we're seeing in the US are very much understated and people seem to just want to focus on denial instead of the reality of the situation. But I'm pretty sure that ignorance doesn't stop chest congestion, high fevers, and death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 55 minutes ago, BricksBrotha said: Ohio state officials now believe there are 100,000 cases or more in their state. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ohio-likely-has-100000-cases-says-health-official/article31063164.ece I read that but I really have to wonder about that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, TANV said: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” - Albert A. Bartlett It seems appropriate at this time, even more so that CU-Boulder has cancelled today due to confirming 1 case of COVID-19 on campus. The numbers we're seeing in the US are very much understated and people seem to just want to focus on denial instead of the reality of the situation. But I'm pretty sure that ignorance doesn't stop chest congestion, high fevers, and death. https://www.peakprosperity.com/video/crash-course-chapter-4-compounding-is-the-problem/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, BricksBrotha said: 'Health Professor" is pretty vague. She could be teaching theoretical dietary habits for all we know. I dont claim to be an 'expert' but I do have a degree in both Medical Biology and Allied Health Science. I have worked in the biotech industry straight out of college for 14 years, at the same company. I work with diagnostic immunassays. The formula the Ohio State health Officials are using is a proven formula based on centuries of data collected throughout history. Now this current society we live in seeming loves to deny/forget/refuse to learn from History. The calculation is necessary since right now, its impossible to test everyone. That number could be lower and could be higher. The reality is, the prediction of 100,000 is closer to actual cases than say 7500. The number will only go up if people continue to feel like it wont effect them, its only being overblown etc and dont take necessary precautions. If the state officials are confident enough to release those numbers, with the way State agencies run, i would safely predict their number is actually very conservative. The layman microbiologist that I am, a100,000 cases would mean hundreds, if not thousands dead. I don't see that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post exciter1 Posted March 13, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Schubert Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I didn’t think that 100,000 actual cases was the most scary aspect of that. Scariest part was that it doubles every six days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exciter1 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, House Schubert said: I didn’t think that 100,000 actual cases was the most scary aspect of that. Scariest part was that it doubles every six days. I think they were indicating it could reach that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil B Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I think they were indicating it could reach that number.I think they meant that even though they only have 6 confirmed cases, there might be 100,000 people with the virus in Ohio (including those sick but not tested, and those with no symptoms but carrying the virus). They were just highlighting the lack of visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 A great idea that I heard to help businesses survive the next few months is to buy gift certificates from them! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BricksBrotha Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Ed Mack said: The layman microbiologist that I am, a100,000 cases would mean hundreds, if not thousands dead. I don't see that yet. I agree, the death rate probably wont climb anywhere near that, but we are talking about affected, . The transmission model does not lie. Italy's death rate is so high because their health system was so overwhelmed that instructed them for triage to the highest rate of recovery. Essentially signing the unhealthy to their deaths. I dont see our health care system doing that. But once it spreads, it spreads. Too many people giving into the lies being spewed. Its good for people to hear some words of caution. If anything, it has taught me to keep some TP in stock at all times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanos75 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 My refinery is forming a virus ride out team in case it gets to that point. We will send the majority of people home and a skeleton crew will work around the clock to keep the plant running. Should be fun living at the refinery for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thanos75 said: My refinery is forming a virus ride out team in case it gets to that point. We will send the majority of people home and a skeleton crew will work around the clock to keep the plant running. Should be fun living at the refinery for a month. My father used to be a machinist at Chevron and would work on the "Cat Cracker" all the time. On another note, here is some potential "good news"... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china?t=1584128903900 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sauromosis Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Also, the last temporary hospital has closed in China, there's video of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 More good news... https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200303_20/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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