COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[$20 on joe vs dan]

9 hours ago, Shortbus311 said:

For all those saying that this is all overblown and just another flu or cold...

Flu deaths this season world wide = 646k

Flu deaths in US this season = 12k-30k

Coronavirus deaths worldwide if 3.4% mortality rate (WHO estimate) = ~262 million

Coronavirus deaths in US if 3.4% mortality rate = 11.2 million

Coronavirus deaths if 2% mortality rate worldwide = 154 million

Coronavirus deaths in US if 2% mortality rate = 6.6 million

Coronavirus deaths if 1% mortality rate (what I tend to believe is a closer estimate) worldwide = 7.7 million

Coronavirus deaths in US if 1% mortality rate = 3.3 million

That is of course assuming that everyone in the world gets infected at some point. But even if only 50% become infected and it has a 1% mortality rate that is still 1.65 million dead in just the US. Which is 55 times more than the flu this year. There are also vaccines against the flu that help prevent spread and severity... no vaccine to stop coronavirus from spreading.

From an epidemiology perspective; how should the total deaths be viewed if the death counts from other respiratory diseases goes down?

If out of the 2 million deaths, 75% were 85+ years old w/ previous underlying diseases (numbers I'm making up) it does change the optics a bit.  For many it does seem like CV was the last straw. 

[Shortbus311]

From an epidemiology perspective; how should the total deaths be viewed if the death counts from other respiratory diseases goes down?
If out of the 2 million deaths, 75% were 85+ years old w/ previous underlying diseases (numbers I'm making up) it does change the optics a bit.  For many it does seem like CV was the last straw. 

I have no idea lol. I was just doing the simple math. But yes, I am sure that there are elderly or people with pre-existing conditions who would have died anyway without the coronavirus. But maybe they would have had another year, or month or even an extra week longer if they didn't become infected. So the cause of death would still be coronavirus.

My father is 68 and has type II diabetes (the kind controlled through diet). He works, is active, isn't overweight and is otherwise generally healthy. But I have read that diabetes is one of the underlying conditions that can increase mortality rates.

High blood pressure is another of the underlying conditions that increases mortality.

There are more than 100 million people in the US who have and live with diabetes. 1 out of every 3 adults have high blood pressure.

I think many people are considering these people who have died from coronavirus with "underlying conditions" as terminal cancer patients and the like. Not the normal everyday "healthy" Americans they may be.

[Bold-Arrow]

Walmart : 

Second, we’re dedicated to keeping stores stocked and prices fair. We’re working hard to replenish cleaning supplies, paper products, and other in-demand items as quickly as possible—and at our everyday low prices. We’re taking a firm stance against price gouging from third-party sellers, so if you see it happening, please report your concern here. 

[marcandre]

10 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

We’re taking a firm stance against price gouging from third-party sellers, so if you see it happening, please report your concern here. 

I'm busting toywiz

https://www.walmart.com/ip/LEGO-Creator-Winter-Village-Post-Office-10222/15405866

[SpaceFan9]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

From an epidemiology perspective ...

 

Here's the slide (from late Feb) that I've seen from the American Hospital Association, which was reported on here:

A few points to note:

• Ro is the rate of infection (number of new cases from a single previous case).
• episode (transmission) wave is ~2 months, so were only about 1/4 of the way through this so far.  Last-half should be a taper/recovery though, so not as bad as it sounds.
• Hospitals expect 30-40% of the population to be affected, with 5% of those needing hospitalization
• CFR : expected case fatality rate, nationwide.

And, yes, most of the CFR will be previously at-risk/compromised patients.  But the years-long mortality time span is being compressed down to 2 months.  This is what has admins stressed... the compressed timeline could overwhelm resources if not well managed.

My personal opinion is that the estimates above are a bit high for the US---but even if its off by an order of magnitude (x10), that's still 48,000 nationwide.  Our population mix, health care professional training and facilities, and the proactive response (which is going a bit overboard, honestly, to my mind) will drop the CFR quite a lot.  But if the 'social distancing' trend had not taken hold, the outcome could have been quite dire.

My best advice is to keep a clear head.  No need to panic, but each of us needs to help not spread it around as best we can to keep the CFR low.

 

 

[crayxlp]

4 hours ago, HandyHand said:

A voice of reason: https://talbotspy.org/letter-from-toronto-an-infectious-diseases-specialist-reflects-on-corvid-19/

In the mean time, over here in The Netherlands all people are encouraged to work at home if possible. But schools will remain open because "children forced to stay home will force the parents to stay home, which would do the economy more harm than keeping the schools open." 

kind of nice to see the same reasoning about adults working keeping the economy running (same here).

[marcandre]

[crayxlp]

I apologize a front - but US president is totally inadequate, unqualified  and total JERK. .he can not even get his advisors right (on the Corona virus spread in Europe), he is absolutely impulsive and his decision to stop all transatlantic flights between EU and US is a proof to that.. the exclusion to allow for UK/Ireland flights because "UK takes really good steps and approach in this situation how to fight the virus " is an absolute laughing stock as UK - on the contrary to many other EU countries - is actually DOING NOTHING.  I hope this incident will literally break his neck and you get yourself a more qualified representative in the next elections.

- not to mention that this selfcentered, egoistic, incompetent "Barbie Ken" is not just ruining EU economy, but yours as well .. I read somewhere that due to these restrictions around 80-100.000 US flight-related jobs will be in jeopardy.

Edited March 13, 2020 by crayxlp

[CosmicSpeed]

All Disney Parks closed until end of month. Our tickets were from the 28-30th. We shall see what happens. Bummed.

[Shortbus311]

All Disney Parks closed until end of month. Our tickets were from the 28-30th. We shall see what happens. Bummed.

What I read just said the parks in California, but I am sure that Florida parks wouldn't be far behind.

[ravenb99]

5 minutes ago, Shortbus311 said:

12 minutes ago, CosmicSpeed said:

All Disney Parks closed until end of month. Our tickets were from the 28-30th. We shall see what happens. Bummed.

What I read just said the parks in California, but I am sure that Florida parks wouldn't be far behind.

Orlando was official about an hour ago

Now it is more newsworthy what is actually open and not cancelled.

Brickpicker is suspending Brickfolios until the end of March...

[crayxlp]

4 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

Orlando was official about an hour ago

Now it is more newsworthy what is actually open and not cancelled.

Brickpicker is suspending Brickfolios until the end of March...

I cant believe that you are "nitpicking" what fair / amusement is still open and what is not.. all the major sport leagues are either terminated or indefinitely postponed, yet you focus on wnich particular location is unavailable. From my point of view you should rather study more closely how the situation and official precautions / position developed within Europe based on the curve of proved infections. There hasnt been any better prevention to this virus - than a total seclusion ..  and sooner or later your gov will find that out and do exactly the same. The worse for you is that the general availability of healthcare is much worse in US than in Europe - here even a a homeless person gets a proper care in case of need, the same can not be said about your system that is based on a paid healthcare. So you might be struck more with respect to many ppl who can not afford to go to a doc.

[ravenb99]

35 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I apologize a front - but US president is totally inadequate, unqualified  and total JERK. .he can not even get his advisors right (on the Corona virus spread in Europe), he is absolutely impulsive and his decision to stop all transatlantic flights between EU and US is a proof to that.. the exclusion to allow for UK/Ireland flights because "UK takes really good steps and approach in this situation how to fight the virus " is an absolute laughing stock as UK - on the contrary to many other EU countries - is actually DOING NOTHING.  I hope this incident will literally break his neck and you get yourself a more qualified representative in the next elections.

- not to mention that this selfcentered, egoistic, incompetent "Barbie Ken" is not just ruining EU economy, but yours as well .. I read somewhere that due to these restrictions around 80-100.000 US flight-related jobs will be in jeopardy.

everyones job will be in jeopardy with the mass cancellations.  NBA suspsends games and 700 Orlando Magic employees are told not to show up.  It affects everyone.   All schools closed will affect millions of parents.   Even if they could afford daycare which most can't most daycares will be closed as well.  Lots of employees will lose jobs over shutdowns altogether.    Doesn't really matter who is in charge of what country.  A day like the last 24 hours has never been seen in our time.

2 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I cant believe that you are "nitpicking" what fair / amusement is still open and what is not.. all the major sport leagues are either terminated or indefinitely postponed, yet you focus on wnich particular location is unavailable. From my point of view you should rather study more closely how the situation and official precautions / position developed within Europe based on the curve of proved infections. There hasnt been any better prevention to this virus - than a total seclusion ..  and sooner or later your gov will find that out and do exactly the same. The worse for you is that the general availability of healthcare is much worse in US than in Europe - here even a a homeless person gets a proper care in case of need, the same can not be said about your system that is based on a paid healthcare. So you might be struck more with respect to many ppl who can not afford to go to a doc.

no one is nitpicking.   There are a few major businesses / establishments that are staples.  In the US its sports and Disney.  Whether you like it or not or think its a stupid thing to worry about it is major news when all that shuts down in one day.

[crayxlp]

Just now, ravenb99 said:

everyones job will be in jeopardy with the mass cancellations.  NBA suspsends games and 700 Orlando Magic employees are told not to show up.  It affects everyone.   All schools closed will affect millions of parents.   Even if they could afford daycare which most can't most daycares will be closed as well.  Lots of employees will lose jobs over shutdowns altogether.    Doesn't really matter who is in charge of what country.  A day like the last 24 hours has never been seen in our time.

I disagree with the last sentence.. "doesnt matter who is in charge".. in this particular case it does.. That KEN is so arrogant that despite the fact that he "just" might be affected (brazilian meeting) .. he is totally unwilling to undergo a test? What signal does it send to the population? I am God? Laws and rules do not apply to me? If you feel OK even when exposed to some possible dangerous situaton - do not care?

[marcandre]

1 minute ago, ravenb99 said:

everyones job will be in jeopardy with the mass cancellations. It affects everyone.   All schools closed will affect millions of parents.   Even if they could afford daycare which most can't most daycares will be closed as well.  Lots of employees will lose jobs over shutdowns altogether.   

I'll likely be laid off next week. I'm a vp of sales. Spending has frozen except in the walmart tp isle. 

I'll be fine but plenty of folks are really going to be hurting. Hope this blows over soon. 

[ravenb99]

4 minutes ago, marcandre said:

I'll likely be laid off next week. I'm a vp of sales. Spending has frozen except in the walmart tp isle. 

I'll be fine but plenty of folks are really going to be hurting. Hope this blows over soon. 

yup agreed,  sorry to hear that and hope it doesn't happen.   Was talking to a friend in a trade type business and they had meetings about a week or two ago of who will be let go in the event of shutdowns or lose of business.  It's gonna happen sadly.   It's either have a **** ton more people get a potential virus that no one really knows about or close whatever you can down and hope for the best which will cause an economic meltdown.    I guess if its 3 weeks won't be as bad and some might be able to weather it but who knows how long it is.  

Edited March 13, 2020 by ravenb99

[fuzzy_bricks]

7 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

 I guess if its 3 weeks won't be as bad and some might be able to weather it but who knows how long it is.  

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  It's not like the virus will go away or be cured in three to five weeks.

[Mark Twain]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  It's not like the virus will go away or be cured in three to five weeks.

Yes, experts are in agreement that the summer heat will slow the spread but not stop it. Economically, you could have dropped a nuclear weapon on a major city and have caused less damage.

Canada’s PM is under quarantine since his wife tested positive. People in power are scared. This is not going to end well.

[Brystheguy]

My sons' school was going on a band trip to Disney (I was going too as a school administrator) and we got the message three hours before departure this morning that the trip was cancelled. The kids had all of their luggage at the school and everything. Super disappointing but I think the park closings made most feel better about the decision. Definitely the right choice.

[Mathew]

9 minutes ago, Mark Twain said:

Canada’s PM is under quarantine since his wife tested positive. People in power are scared. This is not going to end well.

 

Quit the fear monger omg. It’ll end.  And people will go about their lives again. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse.  People are surviving. 

[Mark Twain]

Quit the fear monger omg. It’ll end.  And people will go about their lives again. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse.  People are surviving. 

People’s lives are screeching to a halt and this is indeed a pandemic. The social distancing thing is going to be the norm for months. I have to work from home now while watching my children — my son’s PreK is closed for the foreseeable future and my daughter’s school district is closing week by week.

[NIevo]

2 hours ago, crayxlp said:

I apologize a front - but US president is totally inadequate, unqualified  and total JERK. .he can not even get his advisors right (on the Corona virus spread in Europe), he is absolutely impulsive and his decision to stop all transatlantic flights between EU and US is a proof to that.. the exclusion to allow for UK/Ireland flights because "UK takes really good steps and approach in this situation how to fight the virus " is an absolute laughing stock as UK - on the contrary to many other EU countries - is actually DOING NOTHING.  I hope this incident will literally break his neck and you get yourself a more qualified representative in the next elections.

- not to mention that this selfcentered, egoistic, incompetent "Barbie Ken" is not just ruining EU economy, but yours as well .. I read somewhere that due to these restrictions around 80-100.000 US flight-related jobs will be in jeopardy.

'You've got some serious mental and maybe anger issues.  Keep the needless childish bashing of our President of of this thread.  Also, whether it's being lost in translation or not stating you hope he "literally breaks his neck" should get you in some serious trouble.

1 hour ago, Mathew said:

Quit the fear monger omg. It’ll end.  And people will go about their lives again. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse.  People are surviving. 

 

Yes they will because people are quick to forget things.  But they are also prone to panicking which we are still going to see get much worse I fear.

[brickolodon]

It will be fun to re-read this topic when coronavirus is over.

[NIevo]

11 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

 

It will be fun to re-read this topic when coronavirus is over.

 

YEAH!!!!!  GO IDAHO!

Reports that like are exactly why people are freaking out and panicking🙄

That being said we would be good for months no problem.

Edited March 13, 2020 by NIevo

[spener90]

30 minutes ago, NIevo said:

YEAH!!!!!  GO IDAHO!

Reports that like are exactly why people are freaking out and panicking🙄

That being said we would be good for months no problem.

I'm not trying to "add" to the panic. But one thing to consider. If those making the claims about the severity and its potentiality are actually wrong, and at that severely, they will be left with little to no credibility. At that, I feel it is actually something to be taken quite seriously. At that, the amount of people (and media) treating it like the plague is a bit much.