COVID-19 / Coronavirus Discussion

[CosmicSpeed]

Because we are a global community, I would like to create a thread for talking about the COVID-19 how this has impacted you. 

I work for a smaller, Chinese-owned tool company. Our workforce after CNY and the extended break was only running at about 40%, of which this is actually on the higher side compared to what I've heard about other, much larger tech companies. While we haven't felt much of the impact here in the US, I am sure we will soon. The way that some companies flow in goods from overseas will really have an impact on store shelves; Stores like Walmart that have large DC's and reroute the flow and quantity of goods so that the shelves don't look as bare. Target specifically doesn't keep extra inventory outside of what it knows will sell in a specific amount of shelf-time and therefore bases reordering on that known formula. Given that orders from China are typically 30 days on a Boat just to arrive on the West Coast, and then separate amount of Customs and transport times to other places in the US, the effects will start to be apparent really soon.

Not trying to start a fear-mongering thread, but a place where we can talk about this like educated adults.

- Nathan

[$20 on joe vs dan]

40 minutes ago, CosmicSpeed said:

Because we are a global community, I would like to create a thread for talking about the COVID-19 how this has impacted you. 

I work for a smaller, Chinese-owned tool company. Our workforce after CNY and the extended break was only running at about 40%, of which this is actually on the higher side compared to what I've heard about other, much larger tech companies. While we haven't felt much of the impact here in the US, I am sure we will soon. The way that some companies flow in goods from overseas will really have an impact on store shelves; Stores like Walmart that have large DC's and reroute the flow and quantity of goods so that the shelves don't look as bare. Target specifically doesn't keep extra inventory outside of what it knows will sell in a specific amount of shelf-time and therefore bases reordering on that known formula. Given that orders from China are typically 30 days on a Boat just to arrive on the West Coast, and then separate amount of Customs and transport times to other places in the US, the effects will start to be apparent really soon.

Not trying to start a fear-mongering thread, but a place where we can talk about this like educated adults.

- Nathan

I remember that scene in Armageddon movie where the Russian cosmonaut is yelling in frustration banging the hell out of some control panels w/ a wrench "USA component or Russian component...doesn't matter, everything made in Taiwan!" 

I believe that the downstream impacts to manufacturing and retail is highly undersold by the rest of the world (DOW dipping over 1000 doesn't come close IMO)...it's a big deal in China and will be here in main street USA  soon enough. I would bet that the real impacts (delays/shortages/out-of-stock) will be felt during the key sale days of the year:  first on Prime DAy, then BF, then obviously Christmas.

The elephant in the room is the virus itself. CDC director made it plain...what's happening in China will likely happen in US...think about it; we've only tested a tiny fraction of the population for the virus, so it goes to show only a fraction of that tiny fraction will result in positives. SO folks thinking that small number of positives is somehow accurately representative of actual cases in the US are fooling themselves.  

[crayxlp]

Interesting that it stays clear of South and Central America (+ New Zealand, but that is a different story)..

[Mark Twain]

Interesting that it stays clear of South and Central America (+ New Zealand, but that is a different story)..

It hasn’t or at least won’t for long. Most countries will have it if they don’t already. The vast majority don’t have funding or infrastructure to test for it properly. The DOW and Nasdaq plummeting 7% should indicate how frighted people are about the effect on the economy. Work stoppages and quarantines are going to make 2020 a rocky year.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Most of the world do not want to have to deal with it so they don't proactively test for it. Symptoms similar to the flu w/ a 1-2% fatality rate (current) on mostly the elderly that are pneumonia-like complications.  So its not like people are dropping like flies...Better to be in denial and ward off panic for as long as they can.

Edited February 26, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Jackson]

People should buy, buy, buy all the LEGO sets from our eBay and Amazon stores right now because life is short, and you never know when you're gonna go. What if the Coronavirus gets you and you never had a chance to build that Millennium Falcon you've been ogling for years?

[NIevo]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Most of the world do not want to have to deal with it so they don't proactively test for it. Symptoms similar to the flu w/ a 1-2% fatality rate (current) on mostly the elderly that are pneumonia-like complications.  So its not like people are dropping like flies...Better to be in denial and ward off panic for as long as they can.

Fatality rate is well over 2% now.

[Val-E]

When we get proper data from Russia and India, we will know how serious it is.

[HandyHand]

There's a Dutch electronic consumer goods store (TVs, laptops, fridges, washing machines, etc, etc), which is mostly web-based but also has a few physical stores, that recently stopped all their advertising and affiliate linking activities, and also raised their prices above those of direct competitors. From a leaked internal memo it came out they are anticipating shortages and are keeping the warehouses stocked so they can still continue selling if production really does drop.

Will be interesting to see in hindsight if they were smart to do this, or whether they overreacted.

[Pseudoty]

I have been following this closely prior to posting the N-95 mask deal over a month ago. 

The two big issues I see now for the USA (don't want to cause an international uproar like I did when I posted Brick Bank broke $400 on eBay) is supply chain issues which you can easily monitor when you go to Walmart and Target looking for Lego clearance also check the generic Ibuprofen stock, that and shortages of cough medicine on the shelves may be the first sign that there is an issue in your area.  

The other is that unlike Flu this strain of the Corona Virus can overwhelm our healthcare system as approximately 20% of those infected require an ICU bed for a lengthy amount of time.  Currently their are approximately 90K ICU beds in the USA that have a daily occupancy rate well over 80% due to other medical conditions. Compound that with nosocomial  spread amongst healthcare workers and there can be a major lapse in the ability for a specific hospital to care for infected patients.  

The current lack of testing in the USA (ONLY 426 people tested compared to over 36K in South Korea and well over 200K in China) do to a bad reagent C in the CDC provided test kits which have since been recalled due to only providing false negatives leaves us trailing early detection, quarantine and contact tracing.  Currently all we are doing is passive surveillance in 6 major US cities (NYC, San Fran, Chicago and 3 more) with an ETA for POC test kits by mid March at best.  We are basically waiting for larger than usual numbers of people Y/Y to present with pneumonia like symptoms to the ER and test negative for Flu. 

[iahawks550]

When we know it's a problem in this country, it will be way too late. It's also compounded and complicated  by Influenza B at high levels in many areas of the country. 

[elmaslıefendi]

Germany is not under control anymore. It wasn't in the first place, but now it's official. There are several verified cases with infections all over the country. Jens Spahn, health minister, said that an epidemic is out of question, it's going to happen. The chances of stopping the outbreak are none. I bet everyone will be prepping over the next few days here.

[cladner]

3 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

Germany is not under control anymore. It wasn't in the first place, but now it's official. There are several verified cases with infections all over the country. Jens Spahn, health minister, said that an epidemic is out of question, it's going to happen. The chances of stopping the outbreak are none. I bet everyone will be prepping over the next few days here.

this thread.  where sanity comes to die.

 

[CosmicSpeed]

1 minute ago, cladner said:

 

this thread.  where sanity comes to die.

 

I understand there are those that have different opinions on the outbreak, and whether or not it is even as bad as the media says it is. There is also the camp that says that the numbers we are seeing are still underestimated. 

[TANV]

Map of Outbreak via John Hopkins University CSSE

Here is a map that tracks the currently reported outbreaks across the world.  In terms of preparation, it's better to be safe than sorry.  Currently in my area of the US, there are steadily increasing infectious flu and cold viruses that are increasing compared to years past, even with vaccinations. Stay warm and safe out there, people!

[marcandre]

My wife's parents went to South Korea last month. They are from Seoul originally, moved here to NC 4 years ago. They were planning on staying six weeks. The way things are going it could be a lot longer. They said public transportation is restricted & it's hard to go anywhere. I keep telling my wife they will be fine but it's hard not to be a little worried. 

 

[cladner]

40 minutes ago, CosmicSpeed said:

I understand there are those that have different opinions on the outbreak, and whether or not it is even as bad as the media says it is. There is also the camp that says that the numbers we are seeing are still underestimated. 

the main number that is being underestimated is actual number of asymptomatic infected people which is likely 10 or 100x times the actual known number of infections which would cut the fatality rate from 2% to 0.2%. 

when nearly 30K Americans are already dying from influenza this season which is off the charts and people are debating about whether to even get vaccinated against that, overly worrying about corona other than basic sanitary precautions seems premature.  we already have a serious epidemic with second highest pediatric death rate from flu on record in US but no one is talking about. 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by cladner

[$20 on joe vs dan]

5 hours ago, iahawks550 said:

When we know it's a problem in this country, it will be way too late. It's also compounded and complicated  by Influenza B at high levels in many areas of the country. 

Anectdotal, but in my sphere of acquaintances; pretty much ALL households with kids recently dealt with flu-like sickness in their household (last 2 weeks).

Two families hit especially hard (supposedly Flu-B) went to ER MULTIPLE times, one child hit the ICU...all OK now.  Apparently Tamliflu (if administered early) pretty much knocks it out in a day or two.

My kid weathered it like a champ and had 3 days of fever and a week of cough (had to miss 2 days of ski lessons); than goodness we didn't get it, but we were popping ZICAM nightly.

My wife who is especially vulnerable to respiratory infections plans to get to Dr and get the anti-viral ASAP with first signs of symptoms.

Compared to all that...Corona doesn't sound nearly as bad.

[Ed Mack]

13 minutes ago, cladner said:

the main number that is being underestimated is actual number of asymptomatic infected people which is likely 10 or 100x times the actual known number of infections which would cut the fatality rate from 2% to 0.2%. 

when nearly 30K Americans are already dying from influenza this season which is off the charts and people are debating about whether to even get vaccinated against that, overly worrying about corona other than basic sanitary precautions seems premature.  we already have a serious epidemic with second highest pediatric death rate from flu on record in US but no one is talking about. 

 

I think this is an excellent point.  Many of these other "zombie apocalypse" epidemic/pandemics were much more apparent when the person was infected.  This is a subtle infection in most cases, with typical cold-like symptoms, thus ignored by many.  The Coronaviruses have been around a long time and most people have some sort of built up immunity to them.  This a novel one, thus the issues.  

This is a difficult discussion for sure.  I am nervous for one, but I have to keep things in perspective.  I am selling my house in a month and have a lot invested in the one I am building. I deal with hundreds to thousands of customers a week in my business, so how will that be affected?  On the other hand, interest rates are dropping, thus helping me with selling my house and financing the new one.  

Some this is fake or weaponized information, meant to scare people in an election year.  Some of it is potentially really scary stuff.  I know three kids my son's age that have spent weeks in the hospital for influenza and pneumonia unrelated to this virus.  It seems like this virus affects middle-aged to older men more than most, so I am screwed.  🤢  Regardless, I am praying this goes away with minimal impacts across the globe and we can relax a bit.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

13 hours ago, Jackson said:

 you never had a chance to build that Millennium Falcon you've been ogling for years?

OT, but, I know of at least three households where the dad is planning to build the UCS MF w/ his son...and Ofcourse I am hoping to do as well.

So, Building the UCS MF is apparently become a rite of passage for father & son...it's a real thing.

[Val-E]

As I said before, till we get reliable stats from India and Russia, two big countries with close ties to China, it´s all a bit up in the air.

[elmaslıefendi]

21 minutes ago, Val-E said:

As I said before, till we get reliable stats from India and Russia, two big countries with close ties to China, it´s all a bit up in the air.

You're kidding right?

[Sozial]

3 hours ago, elmaslıefendi said:

Germany is not under control anymore. It wasn't in the first place, but now it's official. There are several verified cases with infections all over the country. Jens Spahn, health minister, said that an epidemic is out of question, it's going to happen. The chances of stopping the outbreak are none. I bet everyone will be prepping over the next few days here.

cmon, just because our designated health minister has the opinion that it is going to be an epidemic, its not sure that its going to happen. sure it can, but I suppose you are just reading too much into the media, which is pushing the fear at the moment.

With prepping on the other hand I suppose you are right, it will be hard to get some pasta here 😷

[Darth_Raichu]

8 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

Currently all we are doing is passive surveillance in 6 major US cities (NYC, San Fran, Chicago and 3 more) with an ETA for POC test kits by mid March at best.  We are basically waiting for larger than usual numbers of people Y/Y to present with pneumonia like symptoms to the ER and test negative for Flu. 

Frankly I am concerned with San Francisco with their high homeless population and filthy street riddled with human poop.  Introduce a potent virus like CV and boom, chaos like nothing we have seen before

[elmaslıefendi]

20 minutes ago, Sozial said:

cmon, just because our designated health minister has the opinion that it is going to be an epidemic, its not sure that its going to happen. sure it can, but I suppose you are just reading too much into the media, which is pushing the fear at the moment.

With prepping on the other hand I suppose you are right, it will be hard to get some pasta here 😷

If it wasn't such a big deal, China, Russia & Europe wouldn't take these actions. 

I agree on the panic media part for other topics, however I think that this pandemic outbreak isn't overexaggerated, if anything it's the opposite. And I don't think that it is a coincidence either. Not at all.