Jurassic World 2015

[fossilrock]

fossil rock I'll say this I have a fairly substantial restock for me coming in and at the moment I am planning to not sell anything until Black Friday or after.

will see what things bring by then and I could change but plan not to

I agree the question is not should I sell now or sell at Christmas

the question is should I sell at Christmas or hold longer even if there are more strong waves to restock which I am beginning to doubt when the Christmas velocity meets Jurassic World Christmas wishes the two supply and demand will head in complete opposite directions

was able to get a good chunk of GT through BC from a friend who was too kind and very glad about that I let all of mine go at 15 to 20 bucks a piece and should have held some back

in the mean time I continue to watch Jurassic World most every night and think about how much I enjoy the movie, the sets, and the potential sales

 

At this point, I agree.  If the restock hasn't happened by now, I doubt it will happen in 2016.  Other movie themes have had these short burst releases, and this is following a similar pattern.  Granted, I think the most heightened demand time to "liquidate" will be this christmas selling season after black friday.   After that comes and goes, what I think happens is you will have even less sets out in the wild if no restock happens, and then prices spike due to the demand/supply curve for fresh minty boxes, but it will take much longer to sell them.  It will be those wait for 6 months to finally make a sale type games.   But 3x isn't out of the question for black friday selling season.  4x or higher isn't out of the question long term on some of these.

I want to maximize my profit on these.  So, that's why i'm thinking it might be better to just hold them longer, even with the sets I just reloaded up on.  I'm already over what I had as my target at this point, because I felt it would be foolish to sit idle…  I think waiting past christmas, and take the risk that emazers is wrong, which I think he is would be a good bet to hedge.  Emazers is the only one that has made this claim.  I haven't seen or heard anyone else say this including retail managers.

Edited October 6, 2015 by fossilrock

[cory730]

Got 2 more emails cancelling my orders of 1 DA and 1 Raptor rampage. I dont understand canceling my order than puttting it back for sale. This is some new tactic or they are gone. Got same email from target my order of 4x RR is delayed till Nov.  

[romoore245]

Out shopping in an area outside my norm yesterday and saw an entire JW line restock at a lego (except for poly bag) store truly amazed. I started loading up and was told pick two. Limit two in store never heard of such a thing.

[zskid00]

Got same email from target my order of 4x RR is delayed till Nov.  

Well LEGO typically doesn't cancel orders unless it is done or there is no new production date on the horizon.  Since these are all listed as TOOS and not Sold Out I would think they will be back in time, perhaps after the new year, but I also wouldn't bank on it.  I'm holding everything I have left at this point to see how it shakes out.  They will be very profitable the next couple months if there are no big restocks.

[Guest]

Got 2 more emails cancelling my orders of 1 DA and 1 Raptor rampage. I dont understand canceling my order than puttting it back for sale. This is some new tactic or they are gone. Got same email from target my order of 4x RR is delayed till Nov.  

Lego always fills newer orders before old ones. This has been shown to be the case time and time again. No I don't think it is a good way to do business, but what do I know, I am not in charge of the biggest toy company in the history of ever.

[cory730]

If they filled newer orders than mine should be filled first since i ordered right before they went back to TOO. I think it is now the fact this set would typically be done but we are our worst enemy and sell out in minutes and they have to decide if they should do another restock even though the normal demand for a movie that is over till 2018 should be phased out. The restocks will be small and keep selling out until everyone gets tired and broke like this summer with PS and PC. 

[trekgate502]

If they filled newer orders than mine should be filled first since i ordered right before they went back to TOO. I think it is now the fact this set would typically be done but we are our worst enemy and sell out in minutes and they have to decide if they should do another restock even though the normal demand for a movie that is over till 2018 should be phased out. The restocks will be small and keep selling out until everyone gets tired and broke like this summer with PS and PC. 

I think you under estimate how many end users are buying this too

[cory730]

Are end users really checking these sites every hour so they can buy within minutes. I definitely think in store they will be snatched up but we can barely get these online. It would be stupid for lego to just stop production. Im in the boat of buy every one I can. Will sell small % at Christmas if I get enough but still single digits on Trex and Irex. 

[longshot]

There's no limit to how many you can buy from the B&M stores correct? I know each store may only sell you 2 of each set or even one but you can hit up multiple stores in a week or go back another day. That wont get you banned from LEGO Shop at Home or anything would it?

[romoore245]

There's no limit to how many you can buy from the B&M stores correct? I know each store may only sell you 2 of each set or even one but you can hit up multiple stores in a week or go back another day. That wont get you banned from LEGO Shop at Home or anything would it?

Sure you can but if only one store of the three in the area has any not much good there. I can go back any time I want to drive the 160 miles to walk in the door. I managed to walk around the mall and go back in and get another pair of a few sets for a total of 4 RE, 2 RR, 1 IR. I am already banned for online so no worries there.

[longshot]

There's actually a number of stores in my area and I can make a circuit to hit a number of them. I usually call to have them hold a number of whatever sets I'm looking for IR is next on the hit parade..........

Edited October 6, 2015 by longshot

[longshot]

Whats everyone take on whether to hold or sell during the Xmas rush? And what is the expected ask price this year vs holding til it officially retires. Say for the top three RE RR and IR?

[biking_tiger]

That's a little like asking a poker player if he/she is bluffing or not...

I really don't know. If they come back next year, selling at Xmas is a great idea because the margins won't look that good again for some time. If they are EOL, which some signs point to, then hold out because the biggest bump may be later.

It's a gamble. Hedge your bets and sell half, keep half?

[Darth_Raichu]

Whats everyone take on whether to hold or sell during the Xmas rush? And what is the expected ask price this year vs holding til it officially retires. Say for the top three RE RR and IR?

I prefer everyone to sell right now

 

[romoore245]

Just called two Lego stores in different large cities both had full restock of JW yesterday.

[fossilrock]

I prefer everyone to sell right now

 

I've come to the conclusions that those firing the "they are coming back in full stock" rumors, are just trying to create market jitters to instill paranoia and fear in investors so they dump their stock, so that these folks can swoop in and just pay a little under 2x, so they can ride the wave to 4x and beyond.

Not a bad tactic.  But, it's a scenario to consider.

I just looked on brickset to compare similar movie base themes like the Lone Range.  That was a similar line with just a handful of sets, and wasn't a continuing theme.  It was only available from April to December of 2013.  Didn't have the popularity, but still had a short release for a movie based theme.  Hobbit BOTFA was another and more recent example in Europe.  Ok, i'm sounding like a broken record.

[romoore245]

I've come to the conclusions that those firing the "they are coming back in full stock" rumors, are just trying to create market jitters to instill paranoia and fear in investors so they dump their stock, so that these folks can swoop in and just pay a little under 2x, so they can ride the wave to 4x and beyond.
Not a bad tactic.  But, it's a scenario to consider.

I just looked on brickset to compare similar movie base themes like the Lone Range.  That was a similar line with just a handful of sets, and wasn't a continuing theme.  It was only available from April to December of 2013.  Didn't have the popularity, but still had a short release for a movie based theme.  Hobbit BOTFA was another and more recent example in Europe.  Ok, i'm sounding like a broken record.

Seeing them on the shelf and then calling additional stores is not rumor making. N o one suggested full restock or to dump stock, in fact I bought as many as I could afford and was allowed to, then raised my prices. Scarcity is still evident on this theme. Plenty to be made off these sets, resourceful individuals would be using the information provided to make money, today tomorrow whatever the sets are there to be purchased if someone wants them.  Scare mongering is not my game.

[fossilrock]

Seeing them on the shelf and then calling additional stores is not rumor making. N o one suggested full restock or to dump stock, in fact I bought as many as I could afford and was allowed to, then raised my prices. Scarcity is still evident on this theme. Plenty to be made off these sets, resourceful individuals would be using the information provided to make money, today tomorrow whatever the sets are there to be purchased if someone wants them.  Scare mongering is not my game.

You seem to be changing your tune quite a bit from earlier pages in this thread.

[HappyHawkeye]

You seem to be changing your tune quite a bit from earlier pages in this thread.

Here's an idea - take or leave the information that's posted here and stop trying to pick a fight with everyone. I guarantee it will in no way affect your ability to make money off of legos.

[Darth_Raichu]

I've come to the conclusions that those firing the "they are coming back in full stock" rumors, are just trying to create market jitters to instill paranoia and fear in investors so they dump their stock, so that these folks can swoop in and just pay a little under 2x, so they can ride the wave to 4x and beyond.
Not a bad tactic.  But, it's a scenario to consider.

I just looked on brickset to compare similar movie base themes like the Lone Range.  That was a similar line with just a handful of sets, and wasn't a continuing theme.  It was only available from April to December of 2013.  Didn't have the popularity, but still had a short release for a movie based theme.  Hobbit BOTFA was another and more recent example in Europe.  Ok, i'm sounding like a broken record.

That would require too much work on my part  Honestly, there was only 1 set which I wished I had done so. It is not part of JW line though. 

[Migration]

In this corna sporting the howlin wolf icon, the one who is 100% sure of everything and let's no one forget it... Fossil!!!

And in the red corner, everyone else, who's tired of hearing about it and wants to have a worthwhile discussion without having some random person talk down to them....

Gentleman, shake hands I wanna see a nice clean fight...

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE

[Guest]

Here's an idea - take or leave the information that's posted here and stop trying to pick a fight with everyone. I guarantee it will in no way affect your ability to make money off of legos.

Right? He views any disagreement as a personal attack and goes into street fighter mode. It's really weird.

[romoore245]

You seem to be changing your tune quite a bit from earlier pages in this thread.

I don't post often enough to remember what I may have said in earlier pages. I doubt I would have ever suggested dumping stock. I am currently posting about what I have seen and confirmed in the past 24 hours. What I may have posted before was likely also about what I had seen recently to the time it was posted. I am happy with my 4 RE in hand since I was down to one that I had ordered from wm months ago apart of an order of five that I just recently found  a week ago. I am happy with the one I......redacted......       minutes ago, the 2nd store ....  said they had plenty and I could ...redacted...  in a ....   when .... up.

This use to be such a friendly forum. How time changes things.

 

[fossilrock]

Come on guys, no need to whine about it.  Let's just sit back and enjoy, as we may have a potentially good line here that will bring in some profit.  Sometimes you can't always buy into every little comment put out by the naysayers.

[Guest]

I don't post often enough to remember what I may have said in earlier pages. I doubt I would have ever suggested dumping stock. I am currently posting about what I have seen and confirmed in the past 24 hours. What I may have posted before was likely also about what I had seen recently to the time it was posted. I am happy with my 4 RE in hand since I was down to one that I had ordered from wm months ago apart of an order of five that I just recently found  a week ago. I am happy with the one I......redacted......       minutes ago, the 2nd store ....  said they had plenty and I could ...redacted...  in a ....   when .... up.

This use to be such a friendly forum. How time changes things.

 

How dare you change your mind based on new info!