Jurassic World 2015

[trekgate502]

247 IR in stock at TRU, 539 Dilophosarus in stock at TRU. 

IR and RR in stock at Target, max 8 per order.

for what it is worth and my memory is not exact on this I think tru.com had about 450 last friday or satruday, 3 hundred and something yesterday and now 2 hundred and something.

it is not restocked it is going down.

do I think the entire line is done yet ? no

do I think 75920 is done ? possibly

am I investing into a line I like but had no intention of wanting to invest in at this time ? yes

is it a smart idea ? not sure

[biking_tiger]

And that last question is (partially) what keeps me doing this. It's fun. It's a hunt. It led me to two different towns and three WMs yesterday to find REs. 

Bring it on, I say. 

[tacsniper]

for what it is worth and my memory is not exact on this I think tru.com had about 450 last friday or satruday, 3 hundred and something yesterday and now 2 hundred and something.

it is not restocked it is going down.

 

I think u r right. I've been monitoring TRU US inventory as well

[iahawks550]

Does a store like Wal-Mart have enough pull with Lego to demand another run of these sets for them?

[biking_tiger]

Pretty sure that's not how it works. They had a contract, LEGO delivered, end of story. Wal-Mart used to push around manufacturers (I have an uncle who used to work in sales for Panasonic), but I'm not sure what the relationship with LEGO looks like. Wal-Mart probably needs LEGO more than the other way around anymore. 

In addition, look at how often retail stores turn over their stock. It's part of the business model and it keeps customers coming back. If a ton of RE showed up in Wal-Marts months later, how bizarre would that look? Those RE I picked up yesterday had seals of 09R5. February. It wold takes months to fire up another run. This isn't like printing the newspaper every day. 

We often see things on the micro level because that's where we operate. Wal-Mart and LEGO are giants. 

[dcdfan]

Does a store like Wal-Mart have enough pull with Lego to demand another run of these sets for them?

I wound thing normally yes. However, given its SW mania & the fact the people have reported that the largest JW had been marked down in stores. The movie is not gonna stay in the theatre forever so I just don't see it happening. I could be dead wrong of course, so just my opinion...I believe they were given a shot on what they wanted in the beginning...

[mudcatsfan]

Every party has a pooper that's why they invited me.

So, i know this is an exciting orgy / self-fulfilling prophecy of demand and out-of-stockness etc.

Disclaimer - I'M ONLY POSTING THIS FOR THOSE THAT ARE NEW / HAVEN'T SEEN MULTIPLE YEARS OF THIS.

I'm not telling those who know better than me anything they haven't heard yet.

---------

Ok, now JUST to the newbs. Please be careful. It's entirely possible you could get smacked down buying these sets at retail. If (IF) they come back and hang around THROUGH the holidays, then they're going to linger on shelves. Then they're going to linger at Toys R Us at the TRU premium (usually about 10% over retail) for a very LONGGGG time. That caps your ability to sell for a profit for a while. Then they're going to hit clearance and provide competitors to your buy-in price that you can't beat. (IE you bought Indominus at 129.99 and others will find it for 99 and 79, and even 49.

So if you can't afford to sit on your stock of JW stuff AT LEAST through next July without incurring financial pain, please don't jump in more than you can afford. 

The whole theme MIGHT NOT be a quick flip. Sets are clearanced at Walmart & then come back ALL the time.

------------

For those of you that are vets, I FULLY get why you're jumping in. Lots of nice pieces aligning in a potential perfect storm. Just don't want to see the newbs get trampled in a situation that could totally smack them down.

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Lame warning over.

Edited July 21, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[dcdfan]

I don't think the line is going away...Just the poly & RE...

But lots of QF's...

[iahawks550]

 Wal-Mart probably needs LEGO more than the other way around anymore. 

We often see things on the micro level because that's where we operate. Wal-Mart and LEGO are giants. 

It would be interesting to see percentage of sales by retailer and method. My guess is that LEGO would lose a significant amount of sales without Wal-Mart. Then again, I could be completely wrong on that.

[trekgate502]

 

 

mudcatsfan I am trying to quote you but I have this never ending quote tunnel lol.

in any event I think your warning is not lame and a great thing for all to consider

Edited July 21, 2015 by trekgate502
said by trek not tacsniper lol

[zskid00]

Mudcatsfan, that is a very fair warning for new investors.  There is more risk here though greater short-term potential also.  It might be wiser for some to invest in the great crop of exclusives that are ripe for the harvest later this year - Ewok Village, Red 5, Tower or Orthanc, Pet Shop, Tower Bridge, etc...

[mudcatsfan]

 

Thanks Trek & Zskid, much appreciated. 

Trek, As to the never ending quote tunnel, try clicking the red arrow in the bottom right of the quote window when you mouse over it. it allows you to tab out of the quote you get stuck in. I had a similar confusion a few days back.

[glucapg]

wonderful :-) 

[iamolego]

My gut tells me no. I picked up 9 RE today from 3 different WMs--all seal code 09R5. That's February. LEGO produces and plans these things months/years in advance. 

Evidence for JW sets being "different" (hence short life):

1. The sets were never really "with" the other LEGO in any of my local retail stores. They didn't have a regular, long-term shelf. 

2. The sets are pretty meh when you remove the dinos and minifigs. 

3. Other movie tie-ins have been slow to no sellers (Lone Ranger, Prince of Persia, even Hobbit and LOTR to some degree). 

4. The movie is going to be out of the box office soon, and SW takes over. 

 

And the counterargument? LEGO wouldn't retire a line after only a few months. 

Well, maybe they didn't plan to... but consumer demand devoured all this plastic like a pack of hungry raptors. 

All JW's I've picked up the last week RE, IR, RR have seal codes of 19R5, 20R5, and 21R5, for what that is worth.

[Darth_Raichu]

All JW's I've picked up the last week RE, IR, RR have seal codes of 19R5, 20R5, and 21R5, for what that is worth.

For newbies: 21R5 = 3rd week of May 2015

[gregpj]

Trek, As to the never ending quote tunnel, try clicking the red arrow in the bottom right of the quote window when you mouse over it. it allows you to tab out of the quote you get stuck in. I had a similar confusion a few days back.

I have also had it get stuck with a quote that you couldn't delete... and then it seems you've quoted them more than once and you can't backspace it out. In that case, refresh your browser window, and then use the "Source" button to clear the reply text area.

The red-arrow is a very good tip... seems many users are getting their cursors stuck in the "quote" part of the reply.

[biking_tiger]

All JW's I've picked up the last week RE, IR, RR have seal codes of 19R5, 20R5, and 21R5, for what that is worth.

It's worth quite a bit, actually. 

It would be interesting to see percentage of sales by retailer and method. My guess is that LEGO would lose a significant amount of sales without Wal-Mart. Then again, I could be completely wrong on that.

Lego is the #1 toy manufacturer in the world and the world's most powerful brand. That means something. LEGO will do fine without Wal-Mart. 

[tacsniper]

According to Lego EU data, sales are ramping up on the 3 sets they have instock. No restock for 75916, 18, 19

Edited July 21, 2015 by tacsniper

[thekragle]

Pretty sure that's not how it works. They had a contract, LEGO delivered, end of story. Wal-Mart used to push around manufacturers (I have an uncle who used to work in sales for Panasonic), but I'm not sure what the relationship with LEGO looks like. Wal-Mart probably needs LEGO more than the other way around anymore. 

In addition, look at how often retail stores turn over their stock. It's part of the business model and it keeps customers coming back. If a ton of RE showed up in Wal-Marts months later, how bizarre would that look? Those RE I picked up yesterday had seals of 09R5. February. It wold takes months to fire up another run. This isn't like printing the newspaper every day. 

We often see things on the micro level because that's where we operate. Wal-Mart and LEGO are giants. 

Lego has more than one factory and I think they are more nimble than you think. This is just molded plastic and the specific unique molds are already made. (The hardest and longest part in toy making is the design and molds)   I used to import toys and I have been to the factories in Guangzhou and Shenzhen China... if there is money to be made they can switch over rather quickly to whatever you want. (Which makes me also assume Lego's transition would be even faster since they own their own factories) Yes months and years to plan a theme set in advance but once production is under way a retool for additional runs is not too hard.

[biking_tiger]

Lego has more than one factory and I think they are more nimble than you think. This is just molded plastic and the specific unique molds are already made. (The hardest and longest part in toy making is the design and molds)   I used to import toys and I have been to the factories in Guangzhou and Shenzhen China... if there is money to be made they can switch over rather quickly to whatever you want. (Which makes me also assume Lego's transition would be even faster since they own their own factories) Yes months and years to plan a theme set in advance but once production is under way a retool for additional runs is not too hard.

I'm not disagreeing with you on the production side--I'm sure I came across as though I was and I apologize. I do disagree with those who suggest TLG flinches at the market side of things. The prevailing wind around here seems to suggest LEGO has morning meetings and decides what sets to produce that day. They're a much smarter company than that. 

Edited July 21, 2015 by biking_tiger

[El Guapo]

I'm not disagreeing with you on the production side--I'm sure I came across as though I was and I apologize. I do disagree with those who suggest TLG flinches at the market side of things. The prevailing wind around here seems to suggest LEGO has morning meetings and decides what sets to produce that day. They're a much smarter company than that. 

I agree with this. Lego and the big retailers already have their "plans" in place for the christmas season.  One individual Walmart getting 25 Jurassic World sets isn't going to change anything.  My company deals with Walmart and they do things like take a $3 million dollar allowance/penalties because of late shipments (thanks dock workders in LA!).  They DO NOT CARE that Lego Jurassic World sells better than Lego Chima, and an individual store might get $700 more in sales over a week.  It is so insignificant to them it is mind bottleing (Chaz Michael-Michaels reference for those of you who care).  They probably had one meeting with the Lego rep and said "yeah I guess we'll take your Jurassic World line for the summer, but we need an exclusive."  That was the end of it. 

Now...don't confuse this with me saying this line is gone, I don't know...and it would be a first if it were. But what if Lego just planned on making the same amount as they did with The Lone Ranger, but it sold 5 times as fast and is now gone?  There is a potential that it doesn't come back...or if it does it is sporadic and in smaller quantities.

[newbie77]

I agree with this. Lego and the big retailers already have their "plans" in place for the christmas season.  One individual Walmart getting 25 Jurassic World sets isn't going to change anything.  My company deals with Walmart and they do things like take a $3 million dollar allowance/penalties because of late shipments (thanks dock workders in LA!).  They DO NOT CARE that Lego Jurassic World sells better than Lego Chima, and an individual store might get $700 more in sales over a week.  It is so insignificant to them it is mind bottleing (Chaz Michael-Michaels reference for those of you who care).  They probably had one meeting with the Lego rep and said "yeah I guess we'll take your Jurassic World line for the summer, but we need an exclusive."  That was the end of it. 

Now...don't confuse this with me saying this line is gone, I don't know...and it would be a first if it were. But what if Lego just planned on making the same amount as they did with The Lone Ranger, but it sold 5 times as fast and is now gone?  There is a potential that it doesn't come back...or if it does it is sporadic and in smaller quantities.

or it comes back in full force.

"the return of the JW" style  like the huge run of #21109 

[El Guapo]

or it comes back in full force.

"the return of the JW" style  like the huge run of #21109 

Yes a full return is most likely.  The difference I see between it and the exo suit is that most of the people buying the first wave of JW sets were end users.  I think most of those exosuits bought in the firsts few weeks are still safely boxed up and sitting on a shelf (i know my 6 are!).  Most of the JW sets bought in the first few weeks were opened and built. 

I think a better comparison would be Cloud Cuckoo Palace and how that behaved directly after The Lego Movie came out.

[kahuka]

Target online is now limiting to 2 IR and 4 RR per order. Limit was 8 this morning.

[zskid00]

T-Rex Tracker is 10% off at Meijer stores right now, so $63.  They also have the 15% Mperks coupon for general merchandise so you can get these for $53.55 + tax.  The stores I have been to had 3 each.  Dilophosaurus Ambush was also 10% off, but Raptor Rampage was not.  I did not see any Indominus Rex.

Edited July 21, 2015 by zskid00