Jurassic World 2015

[biking_tiger]

I'm going to say this, directed at all of you that are hoarding this sets, expecting this to be completely sold out, and never coming back.

If these come back, you better damn well not return these piles and piles of sets.

You think retailers are cracking down on us resellers now?  PIles and piles of returns will just make it even harder on the rest of us.

Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.  You take your lumps.  It's all part of the risk of this game.  If you get stuck with lots of stock because it has come back, oh well.  I'm not going to cry for you.  That's the risk you too.  Great reward comes with great risk.  Your reward, if this never comes back, is some really good bank.  But if it comes back...well, that's the risk you took.

I hear you and agree--risk is part of investing and if you don't want risk, dump your savings in a .03% earning money market. I'm holding the JW sets I have for the duration regardless. These are dinosaurs. LEGO dinosaurs. Not too much risk in the long run... but there's that "patience" thing again. It seems to be in short supply. 

[cory730]

Im not one to return and even if RE comes back it has and always will be sold on Amazon for profit. And is a great long term hold. Im not convinced at entire line retiring but RE is risk proof. 

[trekgate502]

Couldn't agree with you more Ed.

For those of you that think $5 Million is a lot, that's less than 40,000 units of the I-Rex set.  Or less than 15,000 units of a full set of the entire line.  (Retail prices).  Of course, there's all sorts of costs that have to be factored - these guys aren't at a pure profit at RRP, but the point is, it isn't a lot of units to sell before they've made back their licensing fee.

I'm going with easiest explanation - production is in full force for Star Wars, and things are going to sell out if they're moving quick.  These are moving quick.  I expect them to come back in stock by the time the SW sets are in store.

Your probably right but I would not be 100 percent confident.

Walmart is already eliminating shelf space for it.  It could remain huge online for a while and probably will.

Something is a foot though Australia and Canada notices even if the people off track is a sign, Walmart marking Clearance on the JW shelves of the IR set and some of the Mashers (I love Mashers) is a sign.  Is it crazy ? Yes but it is also crazy they are clearancing so much and are they are going to empty Star Wars shelves to put JW back before Christmas? I do not see it.

Star Wars mania will fill the retail shelves until next year.  They can rerun JW but they will not find a place on the shelf for significant stock in my opinion.

I think the line is around another year but 75920 will be gone soon.  But could it go away soon is it absolutely impossible ? It could

Another line of theory would be the movie did great, the toys did great, Star Wars is coming, kill off most of the JW line since there will be no retail shelf space, keep the value of the product high and sought after and leave the appetite strong for the next sequel which already has Chris Pratt signed for and will have all new Lego sets to go with it

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/06/15/what-next-jurassic-movie-could-be

We do not know the agreement.  Universal could have given it a short window.  Universal could have paid Lego to make the license instead of Lego paying Universal.

One thing is for sure the Lego theme is a huge success and that is good for Lego investing.

[Ed Mack]

I gauge The LEGO Groups's interest and commitment to any theme by the amount and the quality of the sets produced for it. Six middle of the road sets and a few poly bags that were basically knockoffs of the Dino theme are hardly convincing to me as a theme that LEGO made a huge investment in. These sets might also be more costly to make because of the Dinosaur maxifigures, so one has to wonder if this shortage is from popularity or from lack of adequate stock because of production issues or a combination of both. Although JW took the movie world by storm, as LEGO sets, they are obviously a minor theme and will be extinct sooner than many other themes.

[biking_tiger]

I gauge The LEGO Groups's interest and commitment to any theme by the amount and the quality of the sets produced for it. Six middle of the road sets and a few poly bags that were basically knockoffs of the Dino theme are hardly convincing to me as a theme that LEGO made a huge investment in. These sets might also be more costly to make because of the Dinosaur maxifigures, so one has to wonder if this shortage is from popularity or from lack of adequate stock because of production issues or a combination of both. Although JW took the movie world by storm, as LEGO sets, they are obviously a minor theme and will be extinct sooner than many other themes.

The sets always looked a little weak to me... even the helicopters aren't helicopter enough. 

[Sandwraith]

I gauge The LEGO Groups's interest and commitment to any theme by the amount and the quality of the sets produced for it. Six middle of the road sets and a few poly bags that were basically knockoffs of the Dino theme are hardly convincing to me as a theme that LEGO made a huge investment in. These sets might also be more costly to make because of the Dinosaur maxifigures, so one has to wonder if this shortage is from popularity or from lack of adequate stock because of production issues or a combination of both. Although JW took the movie world by storm, as LEGO sets, they are obviously a minor theme and will be extinct sooner than many other themes.

There was also no other small products made for this theme, like keychains/magnets, or other promotional items like a poly available at LEGO Shop at Home during a certain month or something.

Not saying no keychains in a theme means short life, but it struck me as a bit off from the get go. An Owen keychain would sell pretty well i'd think.

[tacsniper]

Was at a TRU yesterday and the shelf that was full of JW before is now completely replaced with Lego city stuff and minions tuff beside it. 

Regular Lego area was being reconfigure. Def need shelf space for new sets coming 

[fossilrock]

I'm sitting on 10 re's, 6 trex, 4 ir's, and 2 rr.  I've invested a little over 1500 (basically 4 death stars) in this line over the last few months when I factor in taxes, and gas. 

My son also has 4 of the sets, and I'll debate about allocating one of the IR and Trex sets to complete his collection, but that might change depending on how much these rise in value.  Amazon has proved promising once again, because none of the sets have seen an increase in sellers over this weekend, when I thought it would all the sudden be flooded, but that hasn't happened. In fact, some of them have seen a decrease in sellers, and a rise in prices.  Now really does come the fun part.  I wouldn't doubt you might be able at least get close to doubling your money on some of these by early to mid september, and that's after taxes, fees, and shipping.  Turning 1500 to 3000 is very tempting. That's about 5 sand crawlers, 3 EV, and 2 S1's.  So, that's very tempting... but so is waiting it out to where they might triple in value.  ...or if you luck out, and they go the way of the dodo, to wait until they may go even higher, which could occur.

I wouldn't even think about returning these, nor do I ever do that. 

[Kenxxx]

The thing I don't get, is why Walmart would clearance the I-Rex at $99, if they had plans to carry it thru Xmas. My main Walmart Lego section looks like the day after Black Friday every day. .. shelves are perpetually half empty. They need as much shelf filler as they can get. Why would they dump these now, with Xmas shopping just 3 months away?

[HappyHawkeye]

as a new, small time investor I saw the prices on Amazon & flipped my only IR set last night for a $50 profit and was happy for it. Now to see just how much I will end up regretting that decision

[iahawks550]

I'm going to say this, directed at all of you that are hoarding this sets, expecting this to be completely sold out, and never coming back.

If these come back, you better damn well not return these piles and piles of sets.

You think retailers are cracking down on us resellers now?  PIles and piles of returns will just make it even harder on the rest of us.

Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.  You take your lumps.  It's all part of the risk of this game.  If you get stuck with lots of stock because it has come back, oh well.  I'm not going to cry for you.  That's the risk you too.  Great reward comes with great risk.  Your reward, if this never comes back, is some really good bank.  But if it comes back...well, that's the risk you took.

This is an interesting statement. I'm not a big guy in this game. Pretty small actually. But I'm not sure there is any thing illegal, unethical, or cheating about returning sets with a receipt. I have returned some sets, but probably only 2-3/year.

I know it's completely off-topic.

[trekgate502]

The thing I don't get, is why Walmart would clearance the I-Rex at $99, if they had plans to carry it thru Xmas. My main Walmart Lego section looks like the day after Black Friday every day. .. shelves are perpetually half empty. They need as much shelf filler as they can get. Why would they dump these now, with Xmas shopping just 3 months away?

I think you are spot on about the confusion and the situation.  Something is afoot whatever it is.

[joch29]

The thing I don't get, is why Walmart would clearance the I-Rex at $99, if they had plans to carry it thru Xmas. My main Walmart Lego section looks like the day after Black Friday every day. .. shelves are perpetually half empty. They need as much shelf filler as they can get. Why would they dump these now, with Xmas shopping just 3 months away?

What I learned is that walmart is redoing the entire toy section for the holiday in Aug.. it might be easier to start from scratch.  Target did the same with the batman steamroller set..earlier this year for no apparent reason.

[dcdfan]

What I learned is that walmart is redoing the entire toy section for the holiday in Aug.. it might be easier to start from scratch.  Target did the same with the batman steamroller set..earlier this year for no apparent reason.

I think the steamroller was a Black Friday left over in the cargo strikes... So, they would want to dump them since they got them so long after the promotion...

[thoroakenfelder]

I'm going to say this, directed at all of you that are hoarding this sets, expecting this to be completely sold out, and never coming back.

If these come back, you better damn well not return these piles and piles of sets.

You think retailers are cracking down on us resellers now?  PIles and piles of returns will just make it even harder on the rest of us.

Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.  You take your lumps.  It's all part of the risk of this game.  If you get stuck with lots of stock because it has come back, oh well.  I'm not going to cry for you.  That's the risk you too.  Great reward comes with great risk.  Your reward, if this never comes back, is some really good bank.  But if it comes back...well, that's the risk you took.

WHen I was younger I worked at TRU. There were guys that would come in with a wad of receipts and a cart full of returns that they had waited for the last possible moment to do before their receipt went beyond 90 days. It's been happening for 20 years or more that resellers return product that's not moving and let the big retailers take the hit. Sure, in this day and age they can track a lot more info, but you really think the people at the service desk at Walmart really care? To them, everyone is an awful customer.

[Sauromosis]

Lego has had supply issues all year.  A combination of popularity and getting ready for Episode 7.  A major European wholesaler has been complaining about it all year and had to shut down orders for a bit.

[Kevink24]

What I learned is that walmart is redoing the entire toy section for the holiday in Aug.. it might be easier to start from scratch.  Target did the same with the batman steamroller set..earlier this year for no apparent reason.

I stopped by a Target yesterday to see if any JW was available. Couldn't find any sets and asked an employee if anymore  were coming in, he said he wasn't  sure as they had plans over the next three weeks to reset the entire toy section. I said, "Christmas  reset already"? He said no, just getting set for upcoming stuff. I assumed he meant  Star Wars.

Toys R Us in my area is also doing a store reset in August in preparation for Star Wars. 

Seems all the stores have the same mindset on Star Wars, and so does Lego. Maybe the JW sets are on the way out. It is a curious development.

[tacsniper]

Lego has had supply issues all year.  A combination of popularity and getting ready for Episode 7.  A major European wholesaler has been complaining about it all year and had to shut down orders for a bit.

This happen for the holiday season last year across North America as well. I remember watching the news some small toys stores complained they only received a small portion of their order for the holidays.

[P_R_Rice]

This is an interesting statement. I'm not a big guy in this game. Pretty small actually. But I'm not sure there is any thing illegal, unethical, or cheating about returning sets with a receipt. I have returned some sets, but probably only 2-3/year.

I know it's completely off-topic.

I wouldn't sweat it too much. You're not violating any policies or breaking any rules by returning. It's just someone's opinion. Retailers are well aware this happens and it's been going on for decades. It's not some new loop hole that only pickers use either. I've worked for a marketing analytics company that has monitored this type of activity for 20+ years now. Funny thing is, quite a few people who support that post had no problem taking advantage of a glitch (or oversight) that allowed the 20% off Target cartwheel to be used on Lego even though the fine print clearly stated otherwise. To me that's a violation of policy. The retailers return policy is the return policy. You can return an unopened item, with receipt, for any reason in the timeframe.

I'm not a big time player either. I have 2x IR and 1x Raptor Rampage. I had planned on grabbing the IR for investment, just not this quickly. I don't plan to return those, but I damn well am returning the Raptor Rampage if it returns soon.

Edited July 20, 2015 by P_R_Rice

[fossilrock]

If prepping for ep7 is the case on what is happening with JW, then my gut feeling says to stay away from Ep7, because the sets are going to be all over the place and in great vast numbers at pretty much every retail.  Reminds me of the Phantom Menace era when that was very much the case and only 1 or 2 things were hard to find.  We shall see.  It will be interesting to also see how much Scooby is out on the shelves.  Could this maybe be good through halloween but get scarce too?  We shall see. My initial gut feeling, that is also partly based on experience from the Ep1 days says "tread lightly on Ep7".

[zskid00]

I don't think too many people are planning on stocking up heavily on E7 TFA sets for Christmas flipping.  Certainly I will be keeping my eye on them in case there are seasonal shortages on specific sets that could lead to flipping opportunities.  There are short windows for that every year.  What I'm hoping for is increased demand for some already retired Star Wars sets that I can capitalize on in November and December.  Specifically I'm looking at my stock of Jabba's Palace, Rancor Pit, Desert Skiff, Sail Barge, Y-wing, A-wing, Microfighters wave 1, Republic Gunship, Jedi Cruiser, Umbaran MHC, Alliance Tank, Spider Droid, Duel on Geonosis, AT-TE, Red 5 (hopefully), and some others.  I don't expect them all to take off and the prequel sets may not get much of a bump from the movie, but I hope to have all of these queued up and ready to go by October.

On topic though, I have some Raptor Escapes and I'm picking up a couple of Indominus Rex and T-Rex this week just in case they're out of stock for a while.  I wouldn't bet on any of them heading to retirement this year, but I better cover my bases just in case.  

Edited July 20, 2015 by zskid00

[Darth_Raichu]

I wouldn't sweat it too much. You're not violating any policies or breaking any rules by returning. It's just someone's opinion. Retailers are well aware this happens and it's been going on for decades. It's not some new loop hole that only pickers use either. I've worked for a marketing analytics company that has monitored this type of activity for 20+ years now. Funny thing is, quite a few people who support that post had no problem taking advantage of a glitch (or oversight) that allowed the 20% off Target cartwheel to be used on Lego even though the fine print clearly stated otherwise. To me that's a violation of policy. The retailers return policy is the return policy. You can return an unopened item, with receipt, for any reason in the timeframe.

I'm not a big time player either. I have 2x IR and 1x Raptor Rampage. I had planned on grabbing the IR for investment, just not this quickly. I don't plan to return those, but I damn well am returning the Raptor Rampage if it returns soon.

Wouldn't your company flag this behavior should this happen with greater frequency and bigger amount of inventory ?  Once it is flagged, wouldn't your clients (Walmart, Target, etc) act upon an uptick on this behavior ?  

Policy abuses lead to more restrictions (cf Target)

[trekgate502]

I don't think too many people are planning on stocking up heavily on E7 TFA sets for Christmas flipping.  Certainly I will be keeping my eye on them in case there are seasonal shortages on specific sets that could lead to flipping opportunities.  There are short windows for that every year.  What I'm hoping for is increased demand for some already retired Star Wars sets that I can capitalize on in November and December.  Specifically I'm looking at my stock of Jabba's Palace, Rancor Pit, Desert Skiff, Sail Barge, Y-wing, A-wing, Microfighters wave 1, Republic Gunship, Jedi Cruiser, Umbaran MHC, Alliance Tank, Spider Droid, Duel on Geonosis, AT-TE, Red 5 (hopefully), and some others.  I don't expect them all to take off and the prequel sets may not get much of a bump from the movie, but I hope to have all of these queued up and ready to go by October.

On topic though, I have some Raptor Escapes and I'm picking up a couple of Indominus Rex and T-Rex this week just in case they're out of stock for a while.  I wouldn't bet on any of them heading to retirement this year, but I better cover my bases just in case.  

Where there are shortages that are found of Episode VII sets I think great money can be made.

That being said what I bolded you said above, THIS.  Agreed.

[Alpinemaps]

Lego has had supply issues all year.  A combination of popularity and getting ready for Episode 7.  A major European wholesaler has been complaining about it all year and had to shut down orders for a bit.

Real supply problem or artificially created one? You don't have high demand when you have high supply. If there is perceived value in your product, and there's a low supply of your product, then demand is going to increase. Lego already does this by constantly retiring and refreshing their line. There is the perception that a product won't be available forever along (better by it before it's gone) and the perception that something new is coming soon (rumors of a new Death Star). Why wouldn't they also try to tread the line between having too little and have too much supply. Remember the entire line is a complementary product. So if a single theme is in high demand and low supply, and Grandma can't get JW sets, she will most likely buy something else in the line.

[P_R_Rice]

Wouldn't your company flag this behavior should this happen with greater frequency and bigger amount of inventory ?  Once it is flagged, wouldn't your clients (Walmart, Target, etc) act upon an uptick on this behavior ?  

Policy abuses lead to more restrictions (cf Target)

Yeah, it gets noticed. The one thing you need to keep in mind is that because big box retailers like a Target or Wal-Mart sell a lot more than Lego, putting too many exceptions into policies is not worth it. The employee training, policy misses, angry customers... it's not worth it to them. They generate more in sales and customer confidence with generous return policies than they'll ever lose from pickers returning items. Target boasts that extra 30 days on the return policy for red card holders for a reason. If they load it with fine print, the customer won't view it as a perk, and just another reason these large corporations are trying to screw them over.

But since none of you are returning anything anyhow, you shouldn't need to worry about the return policy being affected.. right?