Star Wars - First Order Long Term Potential?

[landphieran]

I've been sitting and staring at my pile of:

1. Kylo Ren Shuttles
2. Tie Fighters
3. First order Transports
4. Clone Turbo Tanks (not part of the official movie release but released around the same time)
5. Tie Strikers
6. AT-TE

Postulating about the possibility of a 75012 Gunship or 75054 AT-AT in the making. I know there is a lot of hate out there regarding the sets released around this time but humor me  

My gut tells me that First order transporter is going to be the dark horse of the sets. Tons of minifigures, quite unique and looks good. Clone Turbo being a close second based on its design and playability.
 

[oneknightr]

Following...this should be entertaining.

[iahawks550]

Two bad things.....the movie(s) are lackluster and everyone thought investing in these sets was a good idea. Unless your buy in was 50%, I think profits will be tough to come by. 

[Darth_Raichu]

I am not buying anything from TLJ unless they are 75+% off, so this is an opportunity for y'all

[exciter1]

1. Kylo Ren Shuttles - Stagnant, too many people panicking and the market will be flooded. Prime for a remake (probably smaller), since the last one was mediocre
2. Tie Fighters - Performing like a Tie Fighter
3. First Order Transports - Prime for a remake, will be shorter hold
4. Clone Turbo Tanks (not part of the official movie release but released around the same time) - Peaked at about $150-$170 for the last similar release, so I have modest expectations here
5. Tie Strikers - Interesting vehicle, but will peak at about $100 like other Tie Fighters
6. AT-TE - WTH is that thing, Chima?

 

[Val-E]

44 minutes ago, landphieran said:

I've been sitting and staring at my pile of:

1. Kylo Ren Shuttles
2. Tie Fighters
3. First order Transports
4. Clone Turbo Tanks (not part of the official movie release but released around the same time)
5. Tie Strikers
6. AT-TE

Postulating about the possibility of a 75012 Gunship or 75054 AT-AT in the making. I know there is a lot of hate out there regarding the sets released around this time but humor me  

My gut tells me that First order transporter is going to be the dark horse of the sets. Tons of minifigures, quite unique and looks good. Clone Turbo being a close second based on its design and playability.
 

I´ll break it down for you real simple.

1. Kylo Ren Shuttles - SUBPRIME
2. Tie Fighters OK
3. First order Transports SUBPRIME
4. Clone Turbo Tanks (not part of the official movie release but released around the same time) SUBPRIME
5. Tie Strikers SUBPRIME
6. AT-TE SUBPRIME
 

 

[mizeur]

All but the Shuttle were widely available during clearance for 75% off that year. But then so were the Minecraft releases. Which makes the point nicely.

[Mark Twain]

The market is too flooded for consumers to keep track and too many sets are easily available so the avid collectors can easily find discounts. As a slight tangent, I really liked a lot of the Rogue One sets in terms of design, but there really isn't much of a market for them when they're competing against new sets from more films, multiple TV series,  AND a slew of remakes. Now, if Disney execs decided to rest the brand for a 3- 5 years . . . 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

New Guy Perspective:

All these sets exceeds the typical kid's B-Day present range of $15-$25, so not a consideration for mass appeal.

Currently in the price range of your own kid's bday present $50-$150 (for most parents if I'm guessing); my kid loves all the ships...but the ONLY one where he is particular about was the AT-Hauler (#1 on his wish list for Christmas...go it NISB for 50% off ebay), because he remembers it from the movie and wants to play w/ the recent Solo train set. I mention this not because of the Solo line, but moreso that it seems to me that all the Star Wars ships are pretty much interchangeable (in kids minds) and therfore no parent would pay above retail (if that) since new (a better and more familiar) ships are released like every 6 months.

and if I may add...targeting at "collectors" is a lost cause because there's no such thing as scarcity (imo) of any LEGO set made in past years...and most would be deal savvy anyway. 

[iahawks550]

2 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

..targeting at "collectors" is a lost cause because there's no such thing as scarcity (imo) of any LEGO set made in past years...and most would be deal savvy anyway. 

Disagree with the collector part. There are hundreds of sets out at the same time, and obviously limited money for collectors. So, they may not have time or resources to get the sets they want before they retire.

So, the secondary market is the only place they can go, and most are willing to pay way above retail for stuff they missed.

I will agree that SW stuff isn't collectible for the most part, unless you get to the UCS stuff.

[Armor]

I will weigh in on this. I got mine somewhat cheap and I decided to unload 85% -75% of my inventory for those sets. I have been holding them for long enough and the second I could unload them for a slight amount of profit I did. The only thing on the list that I will predict will do well is the Clone turbo but there is a slight problem about the clone wars coming back in the not so distance future. You have to think about. They will probably do another at-te gunship and clone turbo at least once during the new series. The "40k ork upgrade" at-te will not compare to the actual at-te, take a look at 74019. I only got the At-te because of Rex, that and i got all of them for 75% off.

The Rest of your list will be forgotten and probable already has. Disney does not seem to care about reusing the assets of the previous films and use new assets and make them the focus. There is also a backlash of people (weather you like them or not) that are choosing to have nothing to do with star wars and being vocal about it. Also in common culture The Prequels are being coming more beloved, In my opinion being meme and laughed at but it is setting a interesting positive spin on the IP in that area. The generation that had grown up to the Prequels and the clone wars are now getting buying power and in my opinion are what is making the clone turbo already gold compared to the other turds on the list. 

I am steering very far away from anything from the new cannon of star wars and will only pick up if it is 70% off or more. I have moved into other theme of Lego and wish anyone investing in the new Star Wars now the best of luck.

[MrToes16]

49 minutes ago, Armor said:

I have moved into other theme of Lego and wish anyone investing in the new Star Wars now the best of luck.

As a fan of Star Wars...this hurts. As a Lego collector/investor...I am doing the same thing. 

[landphieran]

I feel like people missed the spirit of this thread. We are supposed to be looking at the positives! In two years I want to look back at this thread and go Wow! Yea, Poe's X-wing didn't turn out to be a complete dumpster fire. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

2 hours ago, iahawks550 said:

Disagree with the collector part. There are hundreds of sets out at the same time, and obviously limited money for collectors. So, they may not have time or resources to get the sets they want before they retire.

So, the secondary market is the only place they can go, and most are willing to pay way above retail for stuff they missed.

I will agree that SW stuff isn't collectible for the most part, unless you get to the UCS stuff.

But I would argue there's possibly more re-sellers (nowadays) than there are "collectors willing to pay well over retail" for any particular set...also collectors looking to complete a collection is going to be building it..so also open to an open set and not pay the high premium on sealed boxes...so that opens up the option to open sets as well.

[carini26]

5 minutes ago, landphieran said:

I feel like people missed the spirit of this thread. We are supposed to be looking at the positives! In two years I want to look back at this thread and go Wow! Yea, Poe's X-wing didn't turn out to be a complete dumpster fire. 

All I want for Christmas is to know someone will buy my stack of 75140 Resistance Troop Transports for RRP in 2021.

The year to own retired SW sets was Xmas 2016.  It was still Star Wars mania following box office success of TFA and the anticipation of R1 was off the charts.  Now I have little hope for the theme knowing we are about to be bludgeoned over the head in 2019 w/ Disney promoting the opening of theme parks, return of CW (a good thing), and our 14th feature film in 4 years.

 

 

 

[mizeur]

32 minutes ago, landphieran said:

I feel like people missed the spirit of this thread. We are supposed to be looking at the positives! In two years I want to look back at this thread and go Wow! Yea, Poe's X-wing didn't turn out to be a complete dumpster fire. 

I feel like the spirit of the thread missed the reality. ?

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Long term potential? There isn't any and hasn't been for a while. I need at least 75% off and only interested in the parts. Box and manual goes straight in the bin! OT movies and pre-Disney OT sets only, a dire theme that LEGO needs to drop!