Are Star Wars sets turning into a lame duck?

[Mathew]

44 minutes ago, donbee said:

I don’t know why people are hating so much in the new trilogy. I feel like it’s so much better than the prequels, and they didn’t hurt the sw market.

Well TLJ just hit Netflix which is a good place for it. Rian Johnson needs to go back to directing tv episodes and stay away from the big screen.  He turned Luke Skywalker into a character out of Shameless.

Edited July 4, 2018 by Mathew

[Darth_Raichu]

45 minutes ago, donbee said:

I don’t know why people are hating so much in the new trilogy. I feel like it’s so much better than the prequels, and they didn’t hurt the sw market.

Rian Johnson dropped the ball on treatments of new characters from TFA.  Both Finn and Poe were potrayed as incompetent males and Kylo was a weak bad guy.  What little boys want to play with those kind of characters???

[pete411]

I swear TLJ haters scour the internet to chime in on what they exactly think of the movie. It’s actually comical lol.

[Mathew]

28 minutes ago, pete411 said:

I swear TLJ haters scour the internet to chime in on what they exactly think of the movie. It’s actually comical lol.

Not as bad as the haters make it out to be.  Not as good as you think it is.  It's a middling film that **** on the franchise.  As bad as some parts of the prequels are nothing is as cringe worthy as seeing Luke Skywalker toss his lightsaber to the Porgs.

Edited July 4, 2018 by Mathew

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, pete411 said:

I swear TLJ haters scour the internet to chime in on what they exactly think of the movie. It’s actually comical lol.

Bad SW movies = bad toy business.  It is just demoralizing to see rows and rows of SW figures and toys not moving at 50% off.

It would be interesting to see Di$ney's next move.

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, donbee said:

I don’t know why people are hating so much in the new trilogy. I feel like it’s so much better than the prequels, and they didn’t hurt the sw market.

That´s like saying the bullfighter didn´t hurt the bull.

TFA gave SW market a temporary boost at a time when the Lego resale market was already showing cracks, but it has been downhill ever since.

One could argue whether Disney or TLG are doing  a worse job at killing off the goose that lays the golden eggs but there is no question that every year there are less SW success story sets.

The UCS Falcon  and Snowspeeder are probably the only sets that caused any type of excitement and both of them were remakes. I can´t think of one totally new set that has been a sales success (unless heavily discounted).

[donbee]

The UCS Falcon  and Snowspeeder are probably the only sets that caused any type of excitement and both of them were remakes. I can´t think of one totally new set that has been a sales success (unless heavily discounted).

Do Rebels sets not count?

Just because middle-aged fan boys aren’t excited about it, doesn’t mean they’re not sales success.

Solo just lost money because of Ep 8. I'd call that hurting the SW market.

The Solo movie hurt the Lego SW market?
I think you misunderstood my point.

[redcell]

TFA gave SW market a temporary boost at a time when the Lego resale market was already showing cracks, but it has been downhill ever since.
One could argue whether Disney or TLG are doing  a worse job at killing off the goose that lays the golden eggs but there is no question that every year there are less SW success story sets.
The UCS Falcon  and Snowspeeder are probably the only sets that caused any type of excitement and both of them were remakes. I can´t think of one totally new set that has been a sales success (unless heavily discounted).

The European market must be vastly different than the US market because none of that rings true from my experience on this side of the pond.



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[RKI_Fismo]

44 minutes ago, donbee said:

 

Do Rebels sets not count?

Just because middle-aged fan boys aren’t excited about it, doesn’t mean they’re not sales success.

The Solo movie hurt the Lego SW market?
I think you misunderstood my point.

 

A "fan boy" is the kind of person who fiercely defends their franchise/character regardless...if we're talking about missing points.

Plus it's not just "fan boys" who are turned off by SW. Time will expose that when ep 9 is DOA - like Solo. 

 

[Val-E]

46 minutes ago, redcell said:

 

 

The European market must be vastly different than the US market because none of that rings true from my experience on this side of the pond.



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Which Star Wars playsets retired in the last 2 years are consistently selling above RRP in the USA - non FBA?

Here it´s a few Microfighters, battle packs, 75135 and 75153.

With the rest it´s just a question of getting clearance deals above 60% off.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, donbee said:

 

Do Rebels sets not count?

Just because middle-aged fan boys aren’t excited about it, doesn’t mean they’re not sales success.
 

I´d count 75053 Ghost, sure.

[Martae54]

75138 "baby hoth" seems like it is doing ok.

[redcell]

Which Star Wars playsets retired in the last 2 years are consistently selling above RRP in the USA - non FBA?
Here it´s a few Microfighters, battle packs, 75135 and 75153.
With the rest it´s just a question of getting clearance deals above 60% off.

Excluding FBA from your definition of the market is a pretty big caveat.

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[Val-E]

28 minutes ago, redcell said:

Excluding FBA from your definition of the market is a pretty big caveat.

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The majority of BP member resellers don´t use FBA and now it´s gated. I guess the minority on here who do use it are on a whole different level of turnover and profit. Good for them for going big.

Pretty short list of sets otherwise, right?

@Furious_george nailed it a while back when he said that Lego investing is child´s play when Walmart and Target clear sets for next to nothing and Amazon sell and ship them for you - albeit taking their pound of flesh.

[Migration]

So it’s more “sour grapes” to others competitive advantages than the market itself. Got it.

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, Migration said:

So it’s more “sour grapes” to others competitive advantages than the market itself. Got it.

Just think of all those poor resellers who can´t use TRU car parks to sell anymore!

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The majority of BP member resellers don´t use FBA and now it´s gated. I guess the minority on here who do use it are on a whole different level of turnover and profit. Good for them for going big.

Pretty short list of sets otherwise, right?

@Furious_george nailed it a while back when he said that Lego investing is child´s play when Walmart and Target clear sets for next to nothing and Amazon sell and ship them for you - albeit taking their pound of flesh.

Go big or go home.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Go big or go home.

Jeff Bezos has that tattooed on his inner thigh. Maybe Amazon should start putting it as a footer on their monthly commission invoices too.

Edited July 4, 2018 by Val-E

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Jeff Bezos has that tattooed on his inner thigh. Maybe Amazon should start putting it as a footer on their monthly commission invoices too.

I think his says "Go big or go to Mars!"

[Val-E]

BTW here´s a link to the BP survey on most used sales platforms. I sure hope those 8 TRU sellers got rid of their stashes in time.

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by Val-E

[redcell]

The majority of BP member resellers don´t use FBA and now it´s gated. I guess the minority on here who do use it are on a whole different level of turnover and profit. Good for them for going big.
Pretty short list of sets otherwise, right?
[mention=71070]Furious_george[/mention] nailed it a while back when he said that Lego investing is child´s play when Walmart and Target clear sets for next to nothing and Amazon sell and ship them for you - albeit taking their pound of flesh.

The majority probably don't use Brickowl or Walmart or Barnes and Noble either...so what? The market is the market...FBA tends to amplify the appreciation of sets, but it doesn't turn sets that are sucking wind elsewhere into runaway successes. The sets that succeed through FBA succeed elsewhere, but the margins tend to be thinner because of the differing transactional economics.



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[Val-E]

For me the last really profitable SW sets were the 7505X ones (AT AT, ISD, Ghost), which all retired just before TFA came out and benefited from the SW boost surrounding that film. I haven´t seen any sets that retired since then with the same ROI on any platform. Can anyone provide concrete data to the contrary?

Is it coincidence the slump happened after TFA or is it just a reflection of the market in general?

It will be interesting to compare how the new AT AT and ISD do as well as BB8. Based on how 75105 is doing, I think they will be no match for their elder brothers.

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by Val-E

[Mathew]

I think OT and Prequels sets are still a safe bet.  Avoid anything from the Disney produced films:  TFA, TLJ, Solo etc.  The kids growing up with the new movies are not connecting to them the way previous gens were.  It doesn't help that the new movies are mostly forgettable.  Disney will probably reboot the whole franchise in ten years.

Edited July 4, 2018 by Mathew

[redcell]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

For me the last really profitable SW sets were the 7505X ones (AT AT, ISD, Ghost), which all retired just before TFA came out and benefited from the SW boost surrounding that film. I haven´t seen any sets that retired since then with the same ROI on any platform. Can anyone provide concrete data to the contrary?

Is it coincidence the slump happened after TFA or is it just a reflection of the market in general?

It will be interesting to compare how the new AT AT and ISD do as well as BB8. Based on how 75105 is doing, I think they will be no match for their elder brothers.

 

Looking back at my sales data, in 2016, AT-AT was definitely the star of that group for me with a gross profit margin of 220%.  ISD and Ghost were both in the 110% range, but I sold the Ghosts early.  

Since that round of retirements, in 2017, my highest margin SW sets were Imperial Troop Transport (121%), Hailfire Droid (102%), and Jango Fett buildable (126%).

However, in the year before I sold that round of retirements (2015), my highest margin SW sets were AT-RT (147%), AT-TE (110%), and Mandalorian Speeder (100%).

Over each of those years, the remainder of my SW sets had margins in the 75%-99% range.

From my perspective, AT-AT was an outlier in terms of performance, which is understandable given its iconic status.  Also, I can see TFA have any noticeable impact on the SW market, at least through FBA.  Obviously, a lot of that has to do with the sets that I stocked so it may have looked different if you were loading up on completely different sets.

 

 

[mizeur]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Is it coincidence the slump happened after TFA or is it just a reflection of the market in general?

It will be interesting to compare how the new AT AT and ISD do as well as BB8. Based on how 75105 is doing, I think they will be no match for their elder brothers.

 

We know LEGO as a whole has been struggling. Overpriced, overproduced, and a lot of uninspired designs. It's not an issue unique to the SW theme other than price point being especially problematic for licensed themes.

So I'd pin the blame first on LEGO treating their IP like a commodity rather than a collectible.

If box office success was a primary driver of the LEGO market, stores wouldn't be able to keep Black Panther sets in stock let alone have to offer discounts.