Ideas #019: 21312 - Women of NASA

[Guest TabbyBoy]

12 hours ago, ChristopherJB said:

How do you know there's no second run? And even if there's no second run, the game on this is over. The demand for this is dying fast. Supply is ample north of the border.

Supply of every set is ample, distribution is the problem. I've seen codes 37S7 and 38O7 on mine so 2 runs so far unless the codes mean something else.

[hockeyweasel]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

Supply of every set is ample, distribution is the problem. I've seen codes 37S7 and 38O7 on mine so 2 runs so far unless the codes mean something else.

I think all of my store bought ones are 35R7 and the ones I've had shipped from SAH are 38R7 and November 1st release date was during Week 44.  Sunday, November 12 is the start of code 46x7.  Factories are probably already producing or starting to produce the Winter 2018 sets that release in January and February.  You have the other Backordered sets that they've already committed to with ship by dates or 'in 30 days'.  The gamble is how many production lines they have available to meet on demand production needs for the holiday season.  That SAH took backorders means that they penciled in at least one run. They know how many sets are produced in a batch, so how many batches did they take backorders for?  I agree that we'll probably find out on Cyber Monday if there will be any more QF opportunities in 2017.  If you sold yours this year, wouldn't that pay at least for one or more of the ones that you'll let collect dust for the next 2+ years?

[cladner]

15 minutes ago, hockeyweasel said:

I think all of my store bought ones are 35R7 and the ones I've had shipped from SAH are 38R7 and November 1st release date was during Week 44.  Sunday, November 12 is the start of code 46x7.  Factories are probably already producing or starting to produce the Winter 2018 sets that release in January and February.  You have the other Backordered sets that they've already committed to with ship by dates or 'in 30 days'.  The gamble is how many production lines they have available to meet on demand production needs for the holiday season.  That SAH took backorders means that they penciled in at least one run. They know how many sets are produced in a batch, so how many batches did they take backorders for?  I agree that we'll probably find out on Cyber Monday if there will be any more QF opportunities in 2017.  If you sold yours this year, wouldn't that pay at least for one or more of the ones that you'll let collect dust for the next 2+ years?

i'm gambling zero production lines because there's a new star wars movie coming up.

back orders don't necessarily = another run - could be just redistribution and execution of pre-existing plan.  there is still stock trickling into retail stores so there is availability.

the demand is dropping off .  the seller count is not dropping but hovering around 190.  not too promising but its always darkest before the dawn.

seriously doubt brickpickers will be letting these collect dust if they don't sell them.  that's what receipts are for.

i still am thanking my lucky stars no returns.  i have a theory the people who paid $99.99+ are rich and  could care less about price and haven't checked back to see if it drops.  and that its the cheapskates who are paying $40s-60s are the ones who will scream bloody murder when they can get it for $19.99 at walmart.com  in January 2018.

Edited November 12, 2017 by cladner

[Val-E]

Most shops have had all they are getting for Xmas now so no more SW production, at least of the retiring sets.

Some 2018 sets have already been made and released as Jang is reviewing them.

[plastic passion]

I guess I will just throw my WoN in the garage with my tumblers and let them melt for a couple years.... too lazy to return 40+ sets.   That's my investment for this year....   see you guys next year, same time, - just before xmas.   PP 

[waddamon]

566 listings on eBay, that is just insanity.  We will see how it looks in January.

[montreid]

Too many one off sellers - buy 1 for me; buy 4 for quick resale to fund their purchase.   Not surprised.  quick flip is done for now.  For amzn sellers, returns are a part of amzn.  The price premium is built into it.  If you don't like it -- ebay it and send it in a shoebox. 

[crayxlp]

Personally, I think that this "quick flipping " (buy yesterday, sell the other day for XXX profit) doesnt exactly quantify the term "investment", which I see as a kind of long term commitment to purchase something, keep it for a rather long period of time and sell it later with some (considerable) appreciation. THIS.. what you have been presenting here "quick flip" - buy on monday for 25 bucks - sell it on thursday for 75 bucks - is nothing less than some pawn shop behavior.. you might call it "investing".. but its not.. its simply buy in / sell off and the margin in between. but it has nothing with INVESTMENT.

- afterwards (after posting this item) it crossed my mind that the actual term for this selling practice would be probably TRADING - accordingly to the Wall Street practice

Edited November 13, 2017 by crayxlp
ommission of details

[BarryZola]

Glad this months Lego spend only went on 2 women institute thingies and 3 Louvres.

[waddamon]

Not everyone on this thread quick flipped them.  I haven't sold any, but that high of a listing count has spelled doom in the past.  This is a great set though, so we will see what happens.

[cladner]

19 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

Personally, I think that this "quick flipping " (buy yesterday, sell the other day for XXX profit) doesnt exactly quantify the term "investment", which I see as a kind of long term commitment to purchase something, keep it for a rather long period of time and sell it later with some (considerable) appreciation. THIS.. what you have been presenting here "quick flip" - buy on monday for 25 bucks - sell it on thursday for 75 bucks - is nothing less than some pawn shop behavior.. you might call it "investing".. but its not.. its simply buy in / sell off and the margin in between. but it has nothing with INVESTMENT.

- afterwards (after posting this item) it crossed my mind that the actual term for this selling practice would be probably TRADING - accordingly to the Wall Street practice

and no one ever makes money trading.  this has all been discussed before over the many years.  thanks.  if you buy and sell something and make 30% return on the item in one day, what is your compound annual growth rate and how would that compare to other collectibles/assets?

Edited November 13, 2017 by cladner

[crayxlp]

I wasnt saying that its wrong.. I just wrote, that its not investing. 

[Pebble&Park]

16 minutes ago, crayxlp said:

I wasnt saying that its wrong.. I just wrote, that its not investing. 

Just because the payoff is sooner than potentially expected doesn't convert investing into pawn brokerage. 

[crayxlp]

ok.. my apologize.. (as i stated in my previous post.. POST REMAKE applies).. TRADING is the word.. not pawn shop.

Edited November 13, 2017 by crayxlp
writing typo.. POST REMARK (not remake)

[labfreak7]

If we want to get technical:
in·vest·ment
inˈves(t)mənt/Submit
noun
1.
the action or process of investing money for profit or material result.
Duration has nothing to do with it - it's still risking money.

[Bold-Arrow]

[brickolodon]

[crayxlp]

4 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

If we want to get technical:
in·vest·ment
inˈves(t)mənt/Submit
noun
1.
the action or process of investing money for profit or material result.
Duration has nothing to do with it - it's still risking money.

ok.. lets not catch each other by the words.. I wrote "in my opinion" (how i see that - I need to stress this here).. This is one of the definitions how the "investment" is seen.. personally i still need to stick to my view that "investment" should be rather longer THAN DAYS..

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/investment

Just now, brickolodon said:

these creatures look plain stupid.. what is it they are saying..?

[brickolodon]

Day trading OK for me...

[crayxlp]

aaah.. thanks. it was not apparent at first.. 

[brickolodon]

aaah.. thanks. it was not apparent at first.. 

a good dress is a card of invitation, a good mind is a letter of recommendation...

[Legolassy]

On 11/9/2017 at 11:20 PM, ChristopherJB said:

Check this ebay listing out:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-21312-Ideas-Women-of-NASA-231pcs-New-In-Hand-Free-Shipping/142572997528?epid=16007622942&hash=item2132034b98:g:40IAAOSwYc5aBHT5

Talk about inventory. How did this guy land so many sets?

Pretty sure this was a convo on Saturn V thread too and someone posted way earlier in this thread about availability. 

[waddamon]

It was pretty easy to get a bunch on the first day.

[cladner]

laughed out loud when i noticed this on my metrics - from one of the $99 sales.  my first triple - woo hoo - 1%er grandma's rule.

Edited November 13, 2017 by cladner

[nolanfan34]

I flipped one, am holding one, and sent one for free to a random STEM teacher on Twitter who mentioned wanting one for her classroom. She seems confused and excited.