I've officially divested from LEGO

[exciter1]

I think that´s a very valid summary but it does not preclude people jumping from one camp to another as the market evolves. IIRC [mention=10054]TabbyBoy[/mention], [mention=34249]Ciglione[/mention], [mention=38015]KShine[/mention] and myself (amongst many others) were certainly not complaining back in the day (we were too busy selling) when there were easier pickings from modulars, Star Wars and even City and the first IDEAS sets, which made a lot of people very very wealthy and saw no other way than the high priest of Lego investing [mention=7629]emazers[/mention] business model.
Another point is that the European buyers may be a minority on this forum, but Europe has a bigger population and GDP than the US. On the other hand, there is much greater diversity country by country and "union" is now an oxymoron. When some of us started saying there would be difficult times ahead more than 2 years ago now, we were a minute minority but we were proved right - within our market and selling context. It was clear that too many people were getting in on speculating with the same dogmatic buy and hold plan and no plan B.
TLG already recognised falling US (and now European too) demand was one of the main reasons for declining results, so you guys are clearly not immune to the virus - maybe you´ll just catch it later. Gingerbread House lady has a lot of work on her hands.

I remember a lot of complaining even back in the day, regardless of what day it was.

[KShine]

11 hours ago, Val-E said:

 IIRC @TabbyBoy, @Ciglione, @KShine and myself (amongst many others) were certainly not complaining back in the day (we were too busy selling)

I've always been complaining (or maybe it was more warnings of doom) - But I actually complain much less nowadays (since it's now too late - the damage is done).

I have only ever wanted a continuing stable market - it even felt frustrating selling Town Halls for near $600 (practically right out of the gate), since it was clear that things were going off the rails.

[BrickLegacy]

it even felt frustrating selling Town Halls for near $600 (practically right out of the gate),

Not sure I understand this...

[Val-E]

17 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

 

Not sure I understand this...

It seemed too easy money to be true and it was. That suprise retirement also meant no reseller dared procrastinate over buying other exclusives and we got to where we are now.

[KShine]

3 hours ago, BrickLegacy said:

Not sure I understand this...

 

It was too good to be true.

When selling LEGO started to feel as if you were daytrading in the stock market - it wasn't going to be good.

As a long time seller (never greedy), I always prefered to see a sure & steady rise in values - That was something that could be maintained long term, but not this.

Edited September 24, 2017 by KShine

[Val-E]

6 hours ago, KShine said:

It was too good to be true.

When selling LEGO started to feel as if you were daytrading in the stock market - it wasn't going to be good.

As a long time seller (never greedy), I always prefered to see a sure & steady rise in values - That was something that could be maintained long term, but not this.

To be fair, investing in collectibles is probably the wrong sector for sure and steady growth. Here, what drives the market is scarcity or perceived scarcity - coupled with demand. TH shot up so fast because, rather like with Gingerbread House, our reseller chums were scrambling to get hold of more units as there was a perceived scarcity and demand seemed to come from nowhere (it was not popular before retirement). When they worked out that all they were doing was feeding a bubble and there was actual plenty of stock, they stopped and prices fell back.

This was great for those that sold quickly but not such good news for those with buy ins above 2xRRP.