75192 - UCS: Millennium Falcon 2017

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

The limit 3 in the UK vs limit 5 in the US makes me suspect that there will be a supply issue. I might just buy one immediately, that way if it turns out not to be supply-limited I'm not left with £1300 of paperweights for the next 3 years. If it does sell out, a quick flip on Gumtree or something for cash or Paypal F & F only should be doable.

I'm buying immediately, there's no way that I'm going through the 21309 fiasco again. Honestly, I can see 75192 being sold out within the hour. I can't believe that anybody can lose on this set. If they do, then we all know that LEGO investing has come to an end.

Only cash or bank transfer as PayPal F&F can still face a chargeback (I think) if a case is opened.

Real money talks, always has and always will.

Or... Bitcoin?

4 minutes ago, ChristopherJB said:

Only way you make money on this is if you flip it in the first month or maybe during X'mas. Don't get caught bag holding this. Bet you will get a nice deal on this next June.

It depends if LEGO underestimate demand like they did with 21309. I can foresee TOOS periods when the QFLLs will be ready.

[t_mafia]

As a fan of Lego, I'm excited for sure. And hope to be able to buy one someday. But for all the hype, I think it left a little on the table. For $800 there should be a very small (or even no) amount of stickers. And the minifigures?! What a waste! No Luke, Lando, or R2? TFA figures are garbage. And maybe I'm being a bit of a novice here as I don't know protocol on UCS figures super well but perhaps some arm printing? The faces are a good touch, but there is BASIC arm printing on cheap sets these days. Perhaps I just didn't see it in the video though? I thought for sure at least some of the characters would get printed arms.

I did notice in the video that the model is "greatly enhanced" because the "piece count has gone up by almost 2,500 pieces"... this is what I don't like about new lego sets the most these days. They think (and realize) that most people just look at piece count as the most important factor when buying a set. I would rather have 1 big piece than 5 cheese slopes and studs.

EDIT: also, no limited edition? That is also a bummer.

Edited August 31, 2017 by southcollector13
forgot

[BRIX23]

42 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Maybe...maybe not.  We will see how many people will pay $800.00 for a box of plastic that doesn't appreciate.  The LEGO secondary markets have help prop up the primary market for years.  Before there was eBay and resellers, LEGO was in the red.  Now people know there is value to LEGO sets.  What happens if there is no value and they are looked at as boxes of plastic?  There was a perceived value to LEGO sets that made it easier to pay premium prices for a bunch of ABS plastic.  What happens if that perceived value diminishes?  Do people move on to more cost effective options?  If The LEGO Group starts losing money, do they cut back on new ideas and sets?  It's complicated...

This exactly.  

I love to build Lego sets.  Large sets, small sets, minifigures, etc.  That being said, from a financial standpoint there are times I think to myself "I am paying someone else a premium for what the product is so that "I" can build it, and it's plastic."  Typically you pay a premium for someone else to build you a wonderful product and these days it is technologically advanced.  I get it.  I truly enjoy building the sets... and from a financial standpoint I keep telling myself these things will retain some if not all of their value.  I'm starting to wonder if that will remain true long enough for my kids to be able to cash in when they inherit dad's old sets (which by the way is many, many years from now).  

Edited August 31, 2017 by BRIX23
grammar

[thoroakenfelder]

9 minutes ago, southcollector13 said:

I did notice in the video that the model is "greatly enhanced" because the "piece count has gone up by almost 2,500 pieces"... this is what I don't like about new lego sets the most these days. They think (and realize) that most people just look at piece count as the most important factor when buying a set. I would rather have 1 big piece than 5 cheese slopes and studs.

Reminds me of that part from Spinal Tap "This one goes to 11, usually they go to 10, but this is one louder."

[flynnibus]

14 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Maybe...maybe not.  We will see how many people will pay $800.00 for a box of plastic that doesn't appreciate.  The LEGO secondary markets have help prop up the primary market for years.  Before there was eBay and resellers, LEGO was in the red.  Now people know there is value to LEGO sets.  What happens if there is no value and they are looked at as boxes of plastic?  There was a perceived value to LEGO sets that made it easier to pay premium prices for a bunch of ABS plastic.  What happens if that perceived value diminishes?  Do people move on to more cost effective options?  If The LEGO Group starts losing money, do they cut back on new ideas and sets?  It's complicated...

First.. correlation doesn't mean causation.  Lego was in trouble and it wasn't due to lack of inflated sales due to speculation.  Sure the new speculator sales help immediate revenue, but like all sugar rushes, it's not real, nor is necessarily healthy.  Lego pivoted in what they were selling and what brands they were licensing - that is what turned Lego around... not scalpers.  

People have been buying "boxes of plastic" for entertainment for decades.  Speculators don't create a market - they obfuscate it.  If anything, one would argue it's more harmful as it creates a false view of the market that is unsustainable.

I bet 99.999% of Lego buyers have no idea they can resell their sets when they are done as anything but "a box of misc legos".  Sure, the UCS and other limited run sets are a different market and those buyers are different.  But I'd wager that most fans still don't buy with the idea of flipping or 'selling for appreciation'.  Most just know there are secondary markets where they can get sets that are NLA.  The "investor" crowd only works when you are ahead of the curve or can influence availability.  With Lego re-releasing sets, the availability angle disappears.  With the decade or so now of the flipper behind us... there is no more 'ahead of the curve'.

Lego isn't producing for the speculators...  so when someone groans about their piece that used to be an exclusive showing up in other sets.. boohoo.

[Crzypengu]

Anyone else notice on the Box Art that the concept art version of Cloud City is used rather than the movie version?

[Villager Chris]

Can anyone, apart from cash-rich AFOLs and investors, afford 2 or 3 of these?

[Crzypengu]

Just now, Villager Chris said:

Can anyone, apart from cash-rich AFOLs and investors, afford 2 or 3 of these?

I can buy a couple of them but I really just need one.

[Captain_chaos]

12 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Only cash or bank transfer as PayPal F&F can still face a chargeback (I think) if a case is opened.

Yeah i think you're right actually. Might test it out and see if I can get myself a free Pet Shop ?

Seriously though, cash on collection would feel better anyway. I've no idea what fully insuring one of these to ship would be, but it would seriously eat into any margin. I'd rather sell for less if it means local collection. 

[flynnibus]

23 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

The limit 3 in the UK vs limit 5 in the US makes me suspect that there will be a supply issue. I might just buy one immediately, that way if it turns out not to be supply-limited I'm not left with £1300 of paperweights for the next 3 years. If it does sell out, a quick flip on Gumtree or something for cash or Paypal F & F only should be doable.

 

Might it have to do with the pricing delta between the UK and rest of europe?  Trying to limit how much cross-border activity is happening?

[LegoEdison]

2 minutes ago, Villager Chris said:

Can anyone, apart from cash-rich AFOLs and investors, afford 2 or 3 of these?

other than cash-rich AFOLs and investors, who need 2 or 3 copy of these? 

[BRIX23]

4 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

First.. correlation doesn't mean causation.  Lego was in trouble and it wasn't due to lack of inflated sales due to speculation.  Sure the new speculator sales help immediate revenue, but like all sugar rushes, it's not real, nor is necessarily healthy.  Lego pivoted in what they were selling and what brands they were licensing - that is what turned Lego around... not scalpers.  

People have been buying "boxes of plastic" for entertainment for decades.  Speculators don't create a market - they obfuscate it.  If anything, one would argue it's more harmful as it creates a false view of the market that is unsustainable.

I bet 99.999% of Lego buyers have no idea they can resell their sets when they are done as anything but "a box of misc legos".  Sure, the UCS and other limited run sets are a different market and those buyers are different.  But I'd wager that most fans still don't buy with the idea of flipping or 'selling for appreciation'.  Most just know there are secondary markets where they can get sets that are NLA.  The "investor" crowd only works when you are ahead of the curve or can influence availability.  With Lego re-releasing sets, the availability angle disappears.  With the decade or so now of the flipper behind us... there is no more 'ahead of the curve'.

Lego isn't producing for the speculators...  so when someone groans about their piece that used to be an exclusive showing up in other sets.. boohoo.

Um have you checked FB marketplace lately... or anywhere?  All sorts of folks selling new and used sets at premiums who didn't exist several years ago.  Most likely bought their kids a few nice Lego sets, read an article about Lego as an investment, and started buying for resale or appreciation.

[BrickLegacy]

Lets break this down.

• 10179 = 5,197 pieces
• 75192 = 7,541 pieces
• 45% increase in piece count.  

10179 retailed for $500 in 2007.  Adjusting for the 45% increase in piece count:

• $500 * 1.45 = $725

Then, let's adjust the $725 for inflation:

• $725 is $850 in 2017 dollars.
• https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=725.00&year1=200710&year2=201707

So at $800 MSRP the set is already on sale!  BUY BUY BUY

We all thought we'd never see a $500 set at retail and now we have a $800 one.  What will be the first $1,000 set?

 

 

 

[Shewie]

21 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'm buying immediately, there's no way that I'm going through the 21309 fiasco again. Honestly, I can see 75192 being sold out within the hour.

There is something in it. I've learned from Leicester Store Managment that the supply will be very, very limited  so scenario of 21309 is highly likely.
 

[flynnibus]

12 minutes ago, BRIX23 said:

This exactly.  

I love to build Lego sets.  Large sets, small sets, minifigures, etc.  That being said, from a financial standpoint there are times I think to myself "I am paying someone else a premium for what the product is so that "I" can build it, and it's plastic."  Typically you pay a premium for someone else to build you a wonderful product and these days it is technologically advanced.  I get it.  I truly enjoy building the sets... and from a financial standpoint I keep telling myself these things will retain some if not all of their value.  I'm starting to wonder if that will remain true long enough for my kids to be cash in when they inherit dad's old sets (which by the way is many, many years from now).  

This same mindset has taken over my other hobby (Pinball).  The market has been FLOODED by waves of new money in the last ten years who only buy new games (which people rarely did before) with the mindset that "they don't lose their value" or "they appreciate!" because there were some key examples where titles that were underproduced or overlooked... started selling for 2-3x their original prices  (sound familiar at all????).  Now understand, this is a hobby where the price of entry for this speculation was 4000-8000 dollars (and still climbing.. thanks to this flood of buyers).  It's the same thing here... people saw the past examples (that happened out of purity in the market) and tried to get in on the game speculating.

It's unsustainable.  The model worked because previously those sets/games were difficult to find in that condition... but when you have armies of people buying up inventory and sitting on it.  That intersection of demand and lack of supply no longer exists.  When it gets to levels like we have now... all you are doing is moving the market from the primary retail market to the secondary market.

In pinball, it meant producers realized they could keep raising prices... because speculators had no price tolerance.  The "gotta buy it now before it's NLA" attitude also made buyers desperate and again.. prices went up.  Now the average selling price of new games is through the roof and the second hand market is completely skewed by people who believe "my games values don't go down" even when used.

Listen, I totally appreiciate the idea that these toys have residual value and we can all find some comfort in the idea we can sell them on when we are done with them... but that should be about RECOVERY... not the idea "I'll play with it for a week, then sell it for a profit and repeat".   That's an ideal that depends on timing and market conditions.   Those market conditions are going to go away.

[BRIX23]

All in an all this is an amazing set.  Lego and the designers did an awesome job.  Definite signs of improvement over it's predecessor.  It will be amazing to build a set of this scale with so many pieces.  I am definitely jealous of the 10179 coffee table pic posted several pages ago as I would love to do something like that for this one... but I have a non-toy loving wife who already feels Lego is overwhelming our "adult" home.  I wished for more exclusive or quantity of minifigures.  I wished for some sort of certificate for early buyers.  The box looks fairly unique, but will also pose storage concerns as I like to fold mine flat as it seems to be the easiest way to preserve them from damage.  

[Val-E]

It´s a sign of the times that the quick flip due to initial supply shortage is likely to be the best (and sometimes only) window to make profit on these bigger sets.

[flynnibus]

10 minutes ago, BRIX23 said:

Um have you checked FB marketplace lately... or anywhere?  All sorts of folks selling new and used sets at premiums who didn't exist several years ago.  Most likely bought their kids a few nice Lego sets, read an article about Lego as an investment, and started buying for resale or appreciation.

Everything is about timing when you want to speculate on a market...  That window is over.

And while the secondary markets may be bigger than ever... that's still peanuts compared to the actual traditional buyers.  Lego is selling 100+ million sets a year...   even tens of thousands of transactions a month isn't even a drop in the ocean.

[exciter1]

[flynnibus]

Anyone have any good display ideas for the set?

The ugly bottom still persists....   Anyone have great ideas besides "put it on the dining room table"?  ?

[ad2001]

So there is a limited edition VIP card when purchasing the MF ... 

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, ad2001 said:

So there is a limited edition VIP card when purchasing the MF ... 

Limited to the number of Falcons made.

[scatttcat]

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

 

• Limit 5...They have plenty to sell and this will be around for awhile

Good. I was hoping large limit means larger availability. Now  I can accrue Lego VIP points to buy one.... over the next year  ??

[John82]

5 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

Anyone have any good display ideas for the set?

The ugly bottom still persists....   Anyone have great ideas besides "put it on the dining room table"?  

This is what i'm going to do with mine

Edited August 31, 2017 by John82

[33Lego]

buy 2

build and set them up in each of their own right