75192 - UCS: Millennium Falcon 2017

[Buchimuer]

If I was TLG, if I'm going to break the $500 mark, I would do something bolder like price something $999 for the high end collector. They will never do it, but it would be fun to see.

It must be a flyable UCS Falcon

[Ed Mack]

People keep talking about $600 or $700 sets. We don't even have a $400 set right now. Seems to me that the GBHQ could have been, but they didn't want to go that high. Seems like the sweet spot for LEGO sets is around $200 and 2000 or so pieces. Remember, the 10179 sold at MSRP for $500 and had to be discounted down to $400 for people to buy. I don't know if LEGO wants to produce such an expensive set because it can actually make consumers think that LEGO sets are too expensive and cater to only the wealthy. I don't think the world wide economy supports such a set at this time.

[jaisonline]

41 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

People keep talking about $600 or $700 sets. We don't even have a $400 set right now. Seems to me that the GBHQ could have been, but they didn't want to go that high. Seems like the sweet spot for LEGO sets is around $200 and 2000 or so pieces. Remember, the 10179 sold at MSRP for $500 and had to be discounted down to $400 for people to buy. I don't know if LEGO wants to produce such an expensive set because it can actually make consumers think that LEGO sets are too expensive and cater to only the wealthy. I don't think the world wide economy supports such a set at this time.

The "hoard" wasn't around the last time or 10179 would have had rocket high sales

[Rimmit]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

The "hoard" wasn't around the last time or 10179 would have had rocket high sales

That is correct.  When 10179 came out there were no "brickvesting websites."  There were a handful of people on fbtb.net and brick link, but that is all I remember.  It was a completely different market.  No market analysis on different sets.  People just bought random sets, without any input and alot if it was trial and error.

If a new falcon was put on a 20% sale like the original pretty much was permanently on, the hoarde would eat it alive in todays market vs back in the mid 2000s, it was crickets when it first dropped to 400.

10179 back then was a total enigma as they had never made a set that big or exepnsivr before.   Therefore, no one knew if there was a market for it.   Most people, even hardcore investors like me did not buy it because of shipping and storage and fees. Shipping and storage are considerably higher now.  On top of that no one knew there would be a market for it to appreciate a return, as the most expensive thing selling at that time was a MIB lego ucs 7191 x-wing.  It was selling for around 600-700 misb at the time.  So most people surmised the falcon may cap out at 700-800 due to high buy in already it would not be worth the time.  Also at the time, the only set that I can remember that was remade was the xwing in the dagobah set, and I think some tie fighters were getting some remakes, so remakes werent an issue yet either.  Now any set you buy outside if ucs likely has a remake hurting resale of many sets due to the threat of a remake.  Back then remakes hadnt really taken hold tanking set prices for the future.  We are even getting ucs remakes now which is scary.

A new ucs falcon will do great.  It will just never soar to the heights of the 10179 simply due to the difference in mumver of lego investors and due to the constant threat of a potential remake in 15-20 years if they remake it again.  If it was a limited edition run that could be a different story, as the hoarde woukd eat that up i. Less than a day, but if it had an enigmous run like 10188, this could be the biggest bust ever, due to high shipping and reseller fees and due to the fact SO many prople bought to resell.  BUST as in you might make 300 bucks a sell, after 2-3 years on the market after fees, shipping, and not the 1,000 most are dreaming of.  

Edited February 25, 2016 by Rimmit

[Ed Mack]

That is correct.  When 10179 came out there were no "brickvesting websites."  There were a handful of people on fbtb.net and brick link, but that is all I remember.  It was a completely different market.  No market analysis on different sets.  People just bought random sets, without any input and alot if it was trial and error.

If a new falcon was put on a 20% sale like the original pretty much was permanently on, the hoarde would eat it alive in todays market vs back in the mid 2000s, it was crickets when it first dropped to 400.

10179 back then was a total enigma as they had never made a set that big or exepnsivr before.   Therefore, no one knew if there was a market for it.   Most people, even hardcore investors like me did not buy it because of shipping and storage and fees. Shipping and storage are considerably higher now.  On top of that no one knew there would be a market for it to appreciate a return, as the most expensive thing selling at that time was a MIB lego ucs 7191 x-wing.  It was selling for around 600-700 misb at the time.  So most people surmised the falcon may cap out at 700-800 due to high buy in already it would not be worth the time.  Also at the time, the only set that I can remember that was remade was the xwing in the dagobah set, and I think some tie fighters were getting some remakes, so remakes werent an issue yet either.  Now any set you buy outside if ucs likely has a remake hurting resale of many sets due to the threat of a remake.  Back then remakes hadnt really taken hold tanking set prices for the future.  We are even getting ucs remakes now which is scary.

A new ucs falcon will do great.  It will just never soar to the heights of the 10179 simply due to the difference in mumver of lego investors and due to the constant threat of a potential remake in 15-20 years if they remake it again.  If it was a limited edition run that could be a different story, as the hoarde woukd eat that up i. Less than a day, but if it had an enigmous run like 10188, this could be the biggest bust ever, due to high shipping and reseller fees and due to the fact SO many prople bought to resell.  BUST as in you might make 300 bucks a sell, after 2-3 years on the market after fees, shipping, and not the 1,000 most are dreaming of.  

I believe you need to look at it from the company's perspective, not a collectors perspective.. Can they sell enough of a $600 or $700 set to make it worth it to them or are smaller sets more profitable? As many people on this site can attest to, a huge set is costly to make, store and ship.

[Rimmit]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I believe you need to look at it from the company's perspective, not a collectors perspective.. Can they sell enough of a $600 or $700 set to make it worth it to them or are smaller sets more profitable? As many people on this site can attest to, a huge set is costly to make, store and ship.

From a company standpoint, it is a no brainer.  A 600-700 dollar set would not be to boost the companies bottom line.  Smaller sets are easily more profitable from a company bottom line.  They move more and faster. 

It would be to satiate a handful of upper tier collector's, and almost more for the publicity of having a set that big than for the profit it would incur for the company.  It is a little tough to estimate how well the GB HQ 75827 is selling as it is only on the shop @ home site right now, so if you want one you have to basically go to Lego to get it.  And not on amazon, so while it has good LEGO Shop at Home sales, I feel once a set is sold on Amazon for a normal price, that is a better indicator of it's true sales and how much it is actually moving. 

On ebay there is 23 sales for 10179 over the last 24 days. Assuming Amazon is likely selling none at this point, I would say that is probably a fair assumption of the current market for 10179.  Average price is approximately 2,500 a piece taking into account Used and New. Over the course of a year selling one 2,500 set per day that equates into 912,500 in sales for a 2,500 dollar set.  Obviously 912,500 is not enough for lego to waste their time to create a set in the 2,500 dollar range.  However, as the price drops, so due the number of sales.  This time around a 10179 would sell infinitely more than the first time for a number of reasons.  Increased number of investors and increased number of collectors.  Not only that but because of 10179, but many people don't mind buying expensive Lego's because it is time proven that Lego's retain value very well.  When I buy a Lego I view it as basically just freezing my assets into a Lego form, and not truly "spending" the money on a 500 dollar lego making it easier to swallow when you pay that price tag.

For the Brickvester, though, everyone is a little different in terms of what they want in their investing strategy.  Do they just want to move volume for low profits, which is what the lower priced sets do, or do you want the big whales and only do a handful of sales a month at most, and rake in 200-250 a sale at least?  It is personal preference and what you view your time is worth.

Since Lego already has the infrastructure to move small sets fast and furiously, for them it is infinitely wiser stick with what works, which is why from the beginning of lego to the early 2000's there was barely ever a set over 100 dollars or 1,000 pieces.  However, pushing the envelope is what allowed lego to break out of the shackles of that time period to what it is today.  A beloved company for kids and adults making a high end interlocking brick system.  One that has built such a name that it is pretty much the Apple of the toy world.  Why else can you charge 60 dollars for a playset that takes up maybe a 10''x10'' space at best, and with other toys 60 dollars will get you a MASSIVE aircraft carrier or some Imaginext playset that is 36 inches tall?

[straitiff]

As a new collector I cant afford to buy one on the secondary market but is it worth trying to brick link the parts to build the old 10179 or should I wait for this rumored new UCS 2016 edition ? 

[Huskers1236]

If you want to stay true to the original, I'm not sure it's worth it anymore.  If you don't mind making some substitutes, you can do one for quite a bit less than a complete used copy if you don't mind not having instructions and the name plate(or going with a re-print).  In all honesty, it's the 1% of rare parts on the ship that make Bricklinking one so crazy, but if you have a decent inventory of grey and don't mind making some minor adjustments, it can still be done.

[dcdfan]

As a new collector I cant afford to buy one on the secondary market but is it worth trying to brick link the parts to build the old 10179 or should I wait for this rumored new UCS 2016 edition ? 

This rumor has been going on for years so no reason to think it's happening in 2016...

[Darth_Raichu]

25 minutes ago, straitiff said:

As a new collector I cant afford to buy one on the secondary market but is it worth trying to brick link the parts to build the old 10179 or should I wait for this rumored new UCS 2016 edition ? 

The one thing I am certain of, if there is a new UCS MF, it is not going to be released in 2016.  Why release it this year when Disney can wait 1 more year and release it as a  40th anniversary set?  Mo'  mo'  mo'

 

[dcdfan]

The one thing I am certain of, if there is a new UCS MF, it is not going to be released in 2016.  Why release it this year when Disney can wait 1 more year and release it as a  40th anniversary set?  Mo'  mo'  mo'

 

In November, we can have a brand new thread "UCF MF rumor 2017"...

[Darth_Raichu]

3 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

In November, we can have a brand new thread "UCF MF rumor 2017"...

Why create a new thread when I can rename "update and improve" the title of this one? 

[dcdfan]

Why create a new thread when I can rename "update and improve" the title of this one? 

That's not very exciting. I thought the trend was to have as many threads as possible...

[gbg108]

5 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

That's not very exciting. I thought the trend was to have as many threads as possible...

This discussion should be moved to the new thread creation thread.

[exciter1]

23 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

That's not very exciting. I thought the trend was to have as many threads as possible...

[Anakin_Skywalker]

There is a little bias according to which people tend to feed rumors on the set THEY would like to see again, not that TLG will actually remake with a high degree of confidence. Always the same story, over and over again

Agree with@dcdfan on the thread on new rumors next year..."wake me up when september ends"...

[asharerin]

2 hours ago, dcdfan said:

This rumor has been going on for years so no reason to think it's happening in 2016...

UCS MF and Cafe Corner have had rumored remakes coming for as long as I can remember yet here we are with nothing to show for them. Unless just2good gives it a mention I think it is safe to say it is wishful thinking on the part of some collectors and nothing else.

[giannini78]

So if this updated UCS Millenium Falcon was seen at the end of last year by someone who is a reliable source of info of new sets coming out, then would this likely to be officially announced?

[Val-E]

Let´s see what happens with the new DS first of all. Hard to believe both would be launched at the same time.

[Anakin_Skywalker]

So if this updated UCS Millenium Falcon was seen at the end of last year by someone who is a reliable source of info of new sets coming out, then would this likely to be officially announced?

DS/Starkiller Base is the next one, MF is only rumoured at a much lower degree of confidence (we already have a set number here for the DS).

For this year, we already have AoH and presumably this DS (maybe end of year?) so I guess it's highly premature talking about a new UCS MF now.

[Val-E]

There´s 75144 Snowspeeder too. I´d imagine that would be a June/July release with DS coming in September or October.

Provisional Exclusive list:

May: AoH

June: Minecraft Village

July: Snowspeeder

August: Porsche 911

September: Big Ben

October: Death Star

November: Xmas train

[HandyHand]

The original UCS MF came out in 2007, to celebrate the 30th Star Wars Anniversary (Star Wars, later renamed to Star Wars: Episode IV, 1977).

Next year it's 2017, which means there's reason to celebrate the 40th Anniversary of Star Wars. A renewed UCS MF might be as good a way to do that as anything...

[citymorgue]

It's funny, for as long as I have been on this site, there has always been some rumor of one.  I do think it's bound to come out at some point in time, but I doubt it will be close to what we got back in the day.  I would love a new MF, but I'm patiently waiting for the snowspeeder rumors to be true, because I want that one more than anything honestly.  If they wait a couple of years before we get a new MF, that's fine.

[dcdfan]

Has it been a month already? It's almost like some people have this on their scheduler or something...

[Val-E]

AoH was seemingly delayed from 2015 so Lego are one model behind in their release dates. If the Snowspeeder turns out to be innacurate then it could be that a MF were to be released this year too. I am betting on a Jan 2017 if it is OT or October 2017 (if it is EP8 based) release date as those make the most sense commercially.