75192 - UCS: Millennium Falcon 2017

[Ed Mack]

I just did an article for BLOCKS about the decline of the UCS Empire.   Fact is, most won't be remade.  Fact is, the UCS theme as a whole will suffer from these remakes of the major sets.  How much is the real question.

[jaisonline]

3 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I just did an article for BLOCKS about the decline of the UCS Empire.   Fact is, most won't be remade.  Fact is, the UCS theme as a whole will suffer from these remakes of the major sets.  How much is the real question.

which issue?  27?  or an upcoming one?

[Ed Mack]

1 hour ago, Haay said:

What people should keep in mind is that ... 10 years ago, bogus bricks (and other similar Chinese knock-off brands) did not exist!  LEGO could afford to retire an exclusive set and not respond to the MISB unopened boxes creeping up in value on the aftermarket. They already earned money on the original sale, and TLG could focus on developing new sets. The high profile collectable sets were even a blessing for LEGO because it gave the brand a label of quality and desirability!

But ... With Chinese knock off brands now copying and cloning original LEGO designs and making good money on that, they had to do something... These clones, simply by existing and putting out clones of retired sets, are both diminishing the exclusivity of those LEGO sets, and making people (the average buyer) see original LEGO sets as overpriced. 

Releasing a remake of a highly desirable older set hits two targets with one stone: it destroys the demand for (poor quality) clone versions of the original set, and it lets TLG get in on the apparent demand for the remade set.

Unfortunately, the counterfeiters are copying everything.  LEGO has more to worry about than the big sets.  These knockoffs are plastered all over Amazon and eBay at a fraction of the cost of the legit products, causing LEGO to lose potential customers.  The remakes are more about making money, than battling counterfeiters IMO.

16 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

which issue?  27?  or an upcoming one?

Upcoming...

[cissi]

What's funny is that the MF fever is that incredibly high that TLG is having hard time to get it over with. Just these recent 6 years, 7965 -> 75105 -> 10179 remake. Really!!! They've got it in The LEGO Movie too! lol

(Well, I love it too. But still... really!!! And don't get me start on re-coloring of the X-wings ?)

[Sprocket77]

2 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

LEGO dug their own hole by increasing their price per brick across the board in 2016

Did they though, it definitely feels like prices are getting out of sync with reality, but there was a study done (it's in today's news feed) and it showed the price per piece actually went down last year.

[jgschmieg3]

In my opinion, the bogus bricks copycats are the most detrimental factor to the 10179 market and the reselling market overall.  All one has to do is look at the recently sold on eBay.  People are buying this junk.

I do have some experience to back up my opinion as I bought and sold at least 25 - REAL 10179's in the past two years.  Last year at this time (pre-remakes) I would have the used 10179 that I just received from eBay or Craigslist sold within a week; ranging from $2500 to $3000 profit of $400 to $500. Most within 48 hours and mostly to overseas buyers in Singapore or UAE.  Since the remakes (and even before official 10179 remake confirmation) I STRUGGLED to sell one at $1800 couple of months ago.  

Just my experience, but these remakes have changed everything. 

Edited April 10, 2017 by jgschmieg3

[Darth_Raichu]

25 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Did they though, it definitely feels like prices are getting out of sync with reality, but there was a study done (it's in today's news feed) and it showed the price per piece actually went down last year.

Great.  It must be nice to believe that LEGO is lowering their prices 

[Sprocket77]

1 hour ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Great.  It must be nice to believe that LEGO is lowering their prices 

Lowering the average size of pieces more like. Couldn't understand how the piece count could be coming down. Something like Big Ben with a million cheese slopes might skew the average a little bit, but that's only one set. Stuff like Vader's Tie Advanced and the Clone Turbo Tank must have pretty high price per piece numbers.

[Val-E]

The rumoured decline in UCS sets is an interesting one to follow. I don´t recall AoH, new DS, Tie Fighter or Slave going to backorder in Europe in recent times. Maybe only when there has  been a sale. We´ll see what happens during next month´s promos.

[TigerEyez]

So the rumors are even affecting the price of the fakes. Guy on my local CL has been trying to sell a "compatible" 10179 for like $900 for months, just saw he dropped it to $225

[SweepyD]

4 minutes ago, TigerEyez said:

So the rumors are even affecting the price of the fakes. Guy on my local CL has been trying to sell a "compatible" 10179 for like $900 for months, just saw he dropped it to $225

Better grab it before I don't...

[HandyHand]

On 10/04/2017 at 8:42 PM, Val-E said:

The rumoured decline in UCS sets is an interesting one to follow. I don´t recall AoH, new DS, Tie Fighter or Slave going to backorder in Europe in recent times. Maybe only when there has  been a sale. We´ll see what happens during next month´s promos.

Well, whatta you know... Slave-1 is on Back Order now...   (together with Temple of Airjitzu, Brick Bank, and Palace Cinema).

[longshot]

Heard last night from a number of employees, from two different locations, on the price point of the new falcon. No details but they are speculating on why the price is so high. They all seem to think its due to the modeled out interior resulting in a higher piece count. Looks like this baby is coming in at a whopping $800. IMO this shouldn't effect the original much as it will be significantly different than the first UCS.

Here's hoping and LEGO got this one right............... 

[Ed Mack]

4 minutes ago, longshot said:

Heard last night from a number of employees, from two different locations, on the price point of the new falcon. No details but they are speculating on why the price is so high. They all seem to think its due to the modeled out interior resulting in a higher piece count. Looks like this baby is coming in at a whopping $800. IMO this shouldn't effect the original much as it will be significantly different than the first UCS.

Here's hoping and LEGO got this one right............... 

If the new UCS Falcon was $800 and significantly larger in pieces and more detailed, that would be very good news for LEGO and all of us.  

[Val-E]

If those are Lego employees speculating then it will actually have no interior and cost 849.99.

[longshot]

Just now, Val-E said:

If those are Lego employees speculating then it will actually have no interior and cost 849.99.

These guys have never steered me wrong in the last 10 years so Im going with that until I hear otherwise.

[Val-E]

Let´s hope they are right then as a 800 USD set would certainly make a lot of others, such as GBHQ look like positive bargains.

Difficulty with that price point would be finding B+M shops willing/able to stock it, but that could actually be positive as the harder-to-find, the better.

[asharerin]

16 minutes ago, longshot said:

Heard last night from a number of employees, from two different locations, on the price point of the new falcon. No details but they are speculating on why the price is so high. They all seem to think its due to the modeled out interior resulting in a higher piece count. Looks like this baby is coming in at a whopping $800. IMO this shouldn't effect the original much as it will be significantly different than the first UCS.

Here's hoping and LEGO got this one right............... 

I don't know about significantly different but the price tag of $799.99 sounds spot on. I have a bad feeling that some people who leaked 10179 would be available for purchase again about 18 months ago where referring to the new UCS Falcon model and not Lego Again.

[jaisonline]

i don't know Ed and longshot.  10179 is already 32"x23" and weighs 20 pounds.  something even 10%-20% less in scale still doesn't really make it accessible enough for kids  / AOFLs to place minifigs in interior.   there will be lots of reaching around to avoid knocking off elements (like playing twister) plus it will need major structure improvements to handle the weight of pressing down in interior areas and lifting the top exterior panels.  basically, Lego designers would need to figure out how to make the Hasbro Big MF using Lego.  the BMF's design / plastic  is strong.

I just don't see it unless Lego only has 2 interior areas (cockpit and another interior portion).

 

size comparison of 10179 and Hasbro Big MF

interior of hasbro big mf

\\

 

26 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

If the new UCS Falcon was $800 and significantly larger in pieces and more detailed, that would be very good news for LEGO and all of us.  

 

32 minutes ago, longshot said:

Heard last night from a number of employees, from two different locations, on the price point of the new falcon. No details but they are speculating on why the price is so high. They all seem to think its due to the modeled out interior resulting in a higher piece count. Looks like this baby is coming in at a whopping $800. IMO this shouldn't effect the original much as it will be significantly different than the first UCS.

Here's hoping and LEGO got this one right............... 

 

[mudcatsfan]

18 minutes ago, longshot said:

These guys have never steered me wrong in the last 10 years so Im going with that until I hear otherwise.

Don't take offense, it's just that store employee 'speculation' has been so consistently and comically wrong for the vast majority of us it has its own forum thread.

 

 

[longshot]

Totally understand......... Im in the camp that it will probably be a little larger and only have a limited number of interior spaces. Now what Im hoping for would be a slightly larger version that had LED wired throughout. They couldnt take my money fast enough..............LOL Toss in some sound chips and "Forget about it".........

[Ed Mack]

8 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I don't know about significantly different but the price tag of $799.99 sounds spot on. I have a bad feeling that some people who leaked 10179 would be available for purchase again about 18 months ago where referring to the new UCS Falcon model and not Lego Again.

Well, at $800 and not much different, that would be a negative for many fans and the company in my opinion.  Lack of innovation is a killer to any company.

[longshot]

Just now, Ed Mack said:

Well, at $800 and not much different, that would be a negative for many fans and the company in my opinion.  Lack of innovation is a killer to any company.

Agreed look how everyone feels about the New Deathstar................

[Martae54]

Ok if it has stickers for $800 I am going to loose my mind. (Which it probably will so y'all can look forward to that rant). Also Lego can I PLEASE get a light brick incorporated? I feel like at the VERY least we should get a lit interior computer panel or maybe the famous chessboard lights up. (I know I am dreaming). Personally with all the brilliant minds Lego has, i can't believe they haven't started doing light up "lasers" . Hide a light brick in the model with technic pins to activate them and place transparent red/ green pieces to change the "laser light" at its final destination on the model. Seems fairly simple. But again I am probably dreaming there too.

[stoltzjl77]

As a collector first, investor second, I'm pretty excited about the re-release as I was only buying castle and pirates sets when I first came out of my dark ages and I missed out on 10179 altogether. As an investor, this confirms my strategy not to hold any licensed sets longer than 2 years after retirement (with a very few exceptions) and that goes double for SW. There is still plenty of money to be made selling the smaller sets if you're willing to take 25% margins. And the larger SW sets still appreciate nicely, but the window for maximizing investment is measured in months rather than years.
Moral of the story, if you've got Vader box-art AT-AT's and ISD's you'll want to unload them before 2018 rolls around.