75192 - UCS: Millennium Falcon 2017

[flynnibus]

40 minutes ago, fixerdrew02 said:

Anyone is delusional in thinking that this set will be a limited run.  Unless Lego is losing money per set after marketing, licensing, manufacturing and R/D, there's no way they would cut the supply off along as there's demand.  Demand is SUPER high right now and that's reflected in the secondary market, but frankly there's no reason to think that once it actually comes out in October and they're able to meet the demand that it won't just keep on being sold.  It may have a limited run in the sense that the demand wanes over time due to market saturation and people losing interest in an $800 set and they have to reduce the supply to the point where they believe it's not worth it to keep their stores and online stores stocked, but it's not going to be an arbitrary cutoff of sell sell sell, and then all of the sudden cutoff supply.  

Lego, after all, is in it to make money.  Maybe not as much as other corporations that have to worry about stock holders, but they still need to make ends meet and turn a profit.

So that being said, those of you that WEREN'T able to get this set, don't worry.  Your time is definitely coming.

 

In the past... issues with actually stocking this kind of product in the channel would be reason to stop selling this kind of product.  Too big for shelf real estate, too expensive to stock, too much liability tied into limit return.  It's why such high-end sets wouldn't be sold 'everywhere' regular Lego was sold.  But now that Lego has a very strong direct-to-consumer channel in it's web store, and has a reasonable footprint in retail, there are far less negative liabilities for these kinds of sets to overcome.  Lego can just sell these sets purely on-line if they had to, and dispatch from limited warehousing.  Having the product sit in inventory on a slow sales turnover is a tax liability... but otherwise pretty low-overhead for them to absorb.  So I don't think Lego stands much risk if these sets were to cool off... the question is more how much opportunity cost does Lego miss-out on when producing these sets vs others.  I have to think the margin built into this type of 'marquee' product is strong enough to make it worth selling... because they can charge almost anything.

TL:DR - I think this set will be available via Lego Direct for at least several rounds.  As long as the market for the $200 and up sets is steady, I think this set will be here for several years and will stabalize to 'generally available' much like the current 75159 is.

[flynnibus]

1 hour ago, Poly 30286 said:

I hope the dust has settled enough for me to theorize/rant about this set...

RRP is just too much for the average consumer/collector. I won't be buying this for a long time. The exclusive VIP card and 2018 offers do make it more enticing to buy in 2017, BUT that would be contingent upon both having the money and LEGO having the stock. It seems like this "exclusivity" is just a ploy to push as many of these out the door as quickly as possible. We know that LEGO has seen profits drop. We know this set is a beast in terms of storage space. Perhaps the Black VIP will help with the initial sales, but what does it do to the long term? If you know you will buy it, waiting until 2018 makes no sense.

Then there are the resellers... this set has QFLL take advantage of shortages written all over it, but then what? Once the supply gets sorted out, it will just be another set. It is not a limited release. Marketing strategies vs. the SW franchise wouldn't cut the life span short. Now that LEGO is more just in time with their supply strategy, there is no draw to hoarding. I'm happy for everyone who is getting it when and/how they want to. I just think that all this Day 1 hubbub is showing LEGO that they still rule when they don't. 

Such a 'showcase' product is never about the average customer.  This is the 'top 0.1%' showcase product... just like companies like Toyota making a Supercar... it's not about making supercars more common, or Toyota leaving the average car market, it's a showcase product for the person for whom price is no object.  

The promos stuff are just that... launch promos to help make a splash and trying to encourage people to buy immediately - just launch activity and reasons to help generate market noise/press.  

Just like all NLA products... there will be money to be made when the set is NLA... and limited volume opportunities for those 'who just cant wait' when stock is constrained... but reselling based purely on retail stock availability is always a risky venture.

[flynnibus]

2 hours ago, Kesh said:

Wondering about this.

We have seen a peak, similar to selling concert tickets. IF you are able and willing to spend 800 dollars/Euro's then you probably have no reason to wait any longer given the situation with the old set. I wonder how many AFOLs want this set and did not try to get it yet, and how many tried and failed.

The fact that a few idiots are willing to spend an insane amount on this set on ebay is not really relevant.

Then the question is whether this set will remain hot once everybody realises that it is not that exclusive, despite its price. It  is of course eye-catching because of its size, but it is a grey a piece of junk by nature, and people are going to wonder where to put it. Possibly even when it is discounted.

 

The 'grey piece of junk' and space are certainly limiting factors - but have not held back 10179 from being a set that was greatly desired.  It thins the herd, but did not cripple it's market demand.

I do think demand is far greater than what sold on day 1... that's not a stretch.  What is far more difficult to forecast is if STEADY demand of that volume is really out there.  It's easy to sell against pent-up-demand... its much harder to sell steadily once supply is no longer an issue.  I think that is the interesting part to see..   People would make the same 'not practical' argument over a $400 Lego set  (or my god.. look at the train set costs..)... yet Lego has felt confident enough to release sets at that price point and even higher.

"it costs too much" - I think we left that audience in the dust when you crossed the $200 price point.  Now you are looking at the issues of "do they want it" and "where do they put it" as the limiting factors.

[binary_storm]

I'm in the UK. Got onto SAH website at 7:30am, a little later than I wanted to. Immediately had issues with logging in, adding to bag, red error messages: the works. At one point I ended-up with 3 Falcons in my bag (because I kept clicking the "Add to Bag" button and I thought it wasn't doing anything) but wasn't able to adjust the amount back down to 1 on the confirm order page. Briefly thought about ordering 3 and sending 2 back later, but in the end just refreshed the website and started over again. Luckily I was able to place an order after that. The time at that point was 8:10, so... 40 mins to place the order. Seems like I got lucky compared to some of the reports on here!

A friend at work ordered before 7:30 -- around 7:10 I think -- and paid for expedited delivery. His set arrived today. Unfortunately, my set is showing as "backordered" on SAH. ?

Also, no freebies either for myself or the friend at work. Not offered on UK orders perhaps?

[Kesh]

56 minutes ago, fixerdrew02 said:

Anyone is delusional in thinking that this set will be a limited run.  Unless Lego is losing money per set after marketing, licensing, manufacturing and R/D, there's no way they would cut the supply off along as there's demand.  Demand is SUPER high right now and that's reflected in the secondary market, but frankly there's no reason to think that once it actually comes out in October and they're able to meet the demand that it won't just keep on being sold.  It may have a limited run in the sense that the demand wanes over time due to market saturation and people losing interest in an $800 set and they have to reduce the supply to the point where they believe it's not worth it to keep their stores and online stores stocked, but it's not going to be an arbitrary cutoff of sell sell sell, and then all of the sudden cutoff supply.  

Lego, after all, is in it to make money.  Maybe not as much as other corporations that have to worry about stock holders, but they still need to make ends meet and turn a profit.

So that being said, those of you that WEREN'T able to get this set, don't worry.  Your time is definitely coming.

Yep.

Well, I am a builder, and not a flipper. In Holland this set costs €850. In Germany it costs €800. In Great Britain it costs £650, which translates to about €700 I think.

I recently bought the buildable scout trooper + speeder for €18 in some local shop, while that set is fairly new. Some older SW sets are now sold at a 50% discount in that same shop.

There is no way that I am going to pay the full €850 for the MF in the Dutch online Lego shop with that pricing scheme, even though I do not know whether it will ever hit a local shop over here, let alone it gets discounted by 50%, or even 20%. I live close to the German border. Worst case I will drive to the Lego shop in Oberhausen. A trip back and forth will cost me less than 10 Euros of diesel, and maybe I will buy some other sets there too.

I would expect that ordering online would be the most profitable for Lego. Maybe I am wrong. They are certainly not making that option attractive to me with their pricing model.

Well, there are other things that are beyond me. I recently did buy a set at the online Lego shop. It was just 1 cent short for free shipping. So I ordered a 10 cent brick as well. And guess what... both got sent separately with DHL, just one day apart. I had to sign for delivery of the 10 cent brick. If that is still profitable for them, I would advise them to make online orders a bit more attractive for customers in the Benelux, price-wise.

Heck, I could fly to London for the price difference.

[Shewie]

2 hours ago, gregpj said:

 

Usually for exceeding the limits of a single item by placing multiple orders.

But sometimes because LEGO is stupid and decides you're a reseller based on your order history (sometimes they get it right tho ).

 

 

2 hours ago, Floriano said:

Sorry for the ignorance. Why would someone be banned from SAH?

 

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

For exceeding purchase limits.  LEGO assumes you are a "reseller" if you buy multiples of a particular set that is popular.  

Just for the records.

That guy I mentioned before was making his first purchase in his lifetime on SaH.
It's a cumbersome situation for me even more after his acc was deducted by eq of 2k USD because LEGO flagged him immediately for potentialy astute activity.

inexplicable to me especially when LEGO is advertising VIP program for new comers, ehh...n/c
 

[Poly 30286]

52 minutes ago, gregpj said:

This set is not targeted at the average consumer collector. Never has, never will be. Star Wars collectors are not average... they're weird and tend to have lots of money for toys. LEGO collectors are not average... they're equally as weird and have almost as much money for toys.

That must be my problem. I am a LEGO collector, who is fond of Star Wars, but not a SW collector. It totally explains why I can't seem to justify $800. 

[gregpj]

Just now, Shewie said:

 

 

Just for the records.

That guy I mentioned before was making his first purchase in his lifetime on SaH.
It's a cumbersome situation for me even more after his acc was deducted by eq of 2k USD because LEGO flagged him immediately for potentialy astute activity.

inexplicable to me especially when LEGO is advertising VIP program for new comers, ehh...n/c
 

Has he tried to call S@H? They screwed up the online purchasing so badly (again) he really needs to talk to someone directly. If it's true it was a new account, it could have flagged because of that.

Has he tried to call his credit card company to see if they'll release the funds back to him?

We can provide some history, but not a one-size-fits-all solution.

[flynnibus]

4 hours ago, P38bam023 said:

Looks like the poor launch has given this set an excellent review on SAH.  2.5 stars currently .  I expect it to drop further as more people get jaded with the terrible way this whole thing was done. 

meh... that's just the new 'thing' where people slam a product in reviews due to a shopping experience.  You see that kind of garbage on amazon all the time now.  It's pretty petty and juvenile really.  Eventually that kind of stuff will get washed out or purged.  Hopefully it starts happening everywhere.  I don't need reviews made useless because someone tried to vent through a review on a product unrelated to their actual issue.

[gregpj]

2 minutes ago, Poly 30286 said:

That must be my problem. I am a LEGO collector, who is fond of Star Wars, but not a SW collector. It totally explains why I can't seem to justify $800. 

I'm sure your situation as highlighted in the attached picture doesn't help either... I'm a LEGO collector and a big Star Wars fan, but not a Star Wars collector and I feel the same way. $800 is a lot of money for something I have nowhere to display.

[binary_storm]

4 minutes ago, gregpj said:

$800 is a lot of money for something I have nowhere to display.

Pah. I have nowhere to put the box, much less anywhere to build it or display it. But I still bought the set. ?

[flynnibus]

12 hours ago, Crzypengu said:

Did anyone else who missed out on the Millennium Falcon at a Lego Retail Store get a free 2 day shipping code. Well that code is now basically useless because the October 1st Release Date might not even have any new sets in stock. Instead of a Coupon Code for free shipping LEGO could have increased there profits even more. There are 125 Lego Retail Stores in the world and each store should have provided 10 each. The codes could then be used online and take you to a separate site from the regular Millennium Falcon Page and allow you to pick up one a lot easier after waiting in line for who knows how long. So there would be 1250 units that would be sold specifically for this special site. The code can only be used once but it expires after you get your order for the Millennium Falcon in. This site would run for VIP Members until October 1st where any sets not sold would then be sold on the General Release date of October 1st. This would have been a much better system for the LEGO Group, but I guess they wouldn't take the idea into consideration. Might as well keep refreshing the SaH Page for the next 2 months.

what does any of this achieve??   People already had a site to buy the set... the Lego SAH site.  It already knows the difference between VIP and non-VIP buyers.

The 'waiting in line' is kind of intentional.  They want the buzz around people going to these lengths vs just picking up in store.  Lego doesn't use 'pick up in store' now... they aren't going to roll it out just for one special product release.  They've intentionally have kept the retail experience semi-isolated... presumably to keep the retail experience more than just a distribution point... maybe due to how their inventory system works or just how they do accounting.  

The only thing that would be practical and actually solve your frustration is if Lego allowed people to order back-ordered product and fulfill the orders when they are ready.

[Shewie]

3 minutes ago, gregpj said:

Has he tried to call LEGO Shop at Home? They screwed up the online purchasing so badly (again) he really needs to talk to someone directly. If it's true it was a new account, it could have flagged because of that.

Has he tried to call his credit card company to see if they'll release the funds back to him?

We can provide some history, but not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Yes he tried, but as stated before CS: Providing him zero in common matter sensible explaination about why he got banned because it's self automated system which marked this transaction as suspicious etc bla bla telling him his money will be released from this unauthorized transaction within 7-12 days automatically. No need to make phonecalls to bank etc because it wont change anything, - another automated mechanism.

Even making another order on the phone while speaking with CS would result with imminent cancellation and further suspension of the funds.

In terms of bans at least in EU, CS will give you absolutely no explanation of making that decision, you have to open an official case that can later reach IT TECH SUPPORT to get some extra info, but it will take days or weeks. There is no option to reach them on the phone.

[Ed Mack]

13 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

 

The 'grey piece of junk' and space are certainly limiting factors - but have not held back 10179 from being a set that was greatly desired.  It thins the herd, but did not cripple it's market demand.

I do think demand is far greater than what sold on day 1... that's not a stretch.  What is far more difficult to forecast is if STEADY demand of that volume is really out there.  It's easy to sell against pent-up-demand... its much harder to sell steadily once supply is no longer an issue.  I think that is the interesting part to see..   People would make the same 'not practical' argument over a $400 Lego set  (or my god.. look at the train set costs..)... yet Lego has felt confident enough to release sets at that price point and even higher.

"it costs too much" - I think we left that audience in the dust when you crossed the $200 price point.  Now you are looking at the issues of "do they want it" and "where do they put it" as the limiting factors.

 

21 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

Such a 'showcase' product is never about the average customer.  This is the 'top 0.1%' showcase product... just like companies like Toyota making a Supercar... it's not about making supercars more common, or Toyota leaving the average car market, it's a showcase product for the person for whom price is no object.  

The promos stuff are just that... launch promos to help make a splash and trying to encourage people to buy immediately - just launch activity and reasons to help generate market noise/press.  

Just like all NLA products... there will be money to be made when the set is NLA... and limited volume opportunities for those 'who just cant wait' when stock is constrained... but reselling based purely on retail stock availability is always a risky venture.

I agree.  This is the ultimate "showcase" set and will be an excellent marketing tool for LEGO.  As for the demand for this set, nobody really knows except for The LEGO Group.  It's hard to judge demand off of a few uber LEGO fan sites.   LEGO's constant supply and website issues are either pathetic or planned.  I don't think it really matters either way.  This is a statement set and even if it loses money, it's a winner for LEGO.  

[gregpj]

8 minutes ago, Shewie said:

Yes he tried, but as stated before CS: Providing him zero in common matter sensible explaination about why he got banned because it's self automated system which marked this transaction as suspicious etc bla bla telling him his money will be released from this unauthorized transaction within 7-12 days automatically. No need to make phonecalls to bank etc because it wont change anything, - another automated mechanism.

Even making another order on the phone while speaking with CS would result with imminent cancellation and further suspension of the funds.

In terms of bans at least in EU, CS will give you absolutely no explanation of making that decision, you have to open an official case that can later reach IT TECH SUPPORT to get some extra info, but it will take days or weeks. There is no option to reach them on the phone.

If you're friend isn't willing to accept the wait or the ban, then he unfortunately needs to keep calling until someone listens to him. Politely demand to speak to someone who can help him today rather than in 7-12 days.

At this point, he should be trying to get un-banned rather than trying to get his money back IMO. That will likely yield better results.

I disagree about the bank .. unless it was the bank that marked the transaction as fraudulent, then they absolutely can get the money back faster than 7-12 days if they want to... they may just not want to.

[jaisonline]

25 minutes ago, Shewie said:

Yes he tried, but as stated before CS: Providing him zero in common matter sensible explaination about why he got banned because it's self automated system which marked this transaction as suspicious etc bla bla telling him his money will be released from this unauthorized transaction within 7-12 days automatically. No need to make phonecalls to bank etc because it wont change anything, - another automated mechanism.

Even making another order on the phone while speaking with CS would result with imminent cancellation and further suspension of the funds.

In terms of bans at least in EU, CS will give you absolutely no explanation of making that decision, you have to open an official case that can later reach IT TECH SUPPORT to get some extra info, but it will take days or weeks. There is no option to reach them on the phone.

tell your friend to close up shop and register for a new VIP with a diff credit card or paypal account and email address.  

if your friend wants to keep contacting lego cust support, send them a tweet.

not much else your friend can do w/o flying to denmark;

[flynnibus]

9 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

LEGO's constant supply and website issues are either pathetic or planned.  I don't think it really matters either way.  This is a statement set and even if it loses money, it's a winner for LEGO.  

I think it's clear from the store displays that Lego got out there early and far reaching that this was to be show piece.  Or 'weenie' as coined by Disney... the thing that draws you in/towards something.  Lego doesn't sell those life sized figures, but they spend a ton putting them out there.  This is kind of in that vein... but one you can buy

Re: website... I mean it's the peak of the peak for a few hours.  They can accept limited performance at those 'worst case' scenarios... its not like the site was down for days, etc.  They don't need to overspend to handle these corner cases.

Supply... that's part of the mystique and marketing.  Slow and steady helps keep the perception of demand there.

Ever hear how a food vendor intentionally keeps a line at their counter?  The visible line makes other customers think there is something worthwhile there to checkout.  

Sometimes the 'most efficient turnaround' of customers isn't necessarily the most desirable for a business.  Just keep things moving steady and avoid falling to the point where people get pissed about it

[flynnibus]

29 minutes ago, Shewie said:

Yes he tried, but as stated before CS: Providing him zero in common matter sensible explaination about why he got banned because it's self automated system which marked this transaction as suspicious etc bla bla telling him his money will be released from this unauthorized transaction within 7-12 days automatically. No need to make phonecalls to bank etc because it wont change anything, - another automated mechanism.

Even making another order on the phone while speaking with CS would result with imminent cancellation and further suspension of the funds.

In terms of bans at least in EU, CS will give you absolutely no explanation of making that decision, you have to open an official case that can later reach IT TECH SUPPORT to get some extra info, but it will take days or weeks. There is no option to reach them on the phone.

Maybe because he/you are using the wrong language.  Don't focus on WHY  - that's what they are saying.. it's an automated system, they can't necessarily explain WHY.  Instead focus on "ok, the automated system has flagged me incorrectly.  I'd like to purchase product, how can we do that now that we are on the phone here live and I'd like access to the product I was originally trying to buy"

Focusing on WHY is like arguing about things they can't control.  Focus on things THEY CAN CONTROL.   That's how you make progress in problem resolution.

[Ed Mack]

4 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

I think it's clear from the store displays that Lego got out there early and far reaching that this was to be show piece.  Or 'weenie' as coined by Disney... the thing that draws you in/towards something.  Lego doesn't sell those life sized figures, but they spend a ton putting them out there.  This is kind of in that vein... but one you can buy

Re: website... I mean it's the peak of the peak for a few hours.  They can accept limited performance at those 'worst case' scenarios... its not like the site was down for days, etc.  They don't need to overspend to handle these corner cases.

Supply... that's part of the mystique and marketing.  Slow and steady helps keep the perception of demand there.

Ever hear how a food vendor intentionally keeps a line at their counter?  The visible line makes other customers think there is something worthwhile there to checkout.  

Sometimes the 'most efficient turnaround' of customers isn't necessarily the most desirable for a business.  Just keep things moving steady and avoid falling to the point where people get pissed about it

Business breeds business...

[flynnibus]

1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

Business breeds business...

Most customers are brainless lemmings

The manipulation through perception is so much more active than most customers are willing to believe.  The wine rack in a store is the ultimate example of this...  promotion, branding, labeling, different names to appeal to different demos, using price to project superiority, etc.  Most customers get offended when someone suggests they are being manipulated.. because they believe they are completely independent thinkers.  They are.. but their decisions are heavily influenced by things that really have little to do with what they are ultimately shopping for (quality, value, etc).  They just don't like being shown the reality...

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, flynnibus said:

Most customers are brainless lemmings

The manipulation through perception is so much more active than most customers are willing to believe.  The wine rack in a store is the ultimate example of this...  promotion, branding, labeling, different names to appeal to different demos, using price to project superiority, etc.  Most customers get offended when someone suggests they are being manipulated.. because they believe they are completely independent thinkers.  They are.. but their decisions are heavily influenced by things that really have little to do with what they are ultimately shopping for (quality, value, etc).  They just don't like being shown the reality...

Time to merge with the Gingerbread House thread?

[Will 4]

7 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

Most customers are brainless lemmings

The manipulation through perception is so much more active than most customers are willing to believe.  The wine rack in a store is the ultimate example of this...  promotion, branding, labeling, different names to appeal to different demos, using price to project superiority, etc.  Most customers get offended when someone suggests they are being manipulated.. because they believe they are completely independent thinkers.  They are.. but their decisions are heavily influenced by things that really have little to do with what they are ultimately shopping for (quality, value, etc).  They just don't like being shown the reality...

Hey thats my favorite group of valued customer you are insulting there.

[Ed Mack]

7 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

Most customers are brainless lemmings

The manipulation through perception is so much more active than most customers are willing to believe.  The wine rack in a store is the ultimate example of this...  promotion, branding, labeling, different names to appeal to different demos, using price to project superiority, etc.  Most customers get offended when someone suggests they are being manipulated.. because they believe they are completely independent thinkers.  They are.. but their decisions are heavily influenced by things that really have little to do with what they are ultimately shopping for (quality, value, etc).  They just don't like being shown the reality...

As a business owner for 25 years, you want to always appear busy.  Who wants to go to a business that is never busy?  People assume there is an issue, poor service or price problem.  Perception is everything.  You want to be the business that people say..."Hey, that place is always busy!"  Apple stores are the best example of this.  Eighty Apple employees make every store look busy....LOL

[Shewie]

21 minutes ago, flynnibus said:

Maybe because he/you are using the wrong language.  Don't focus on WHY  - that's what they are saying.. it's an automated system, they can't necessarily explain WHY.  Instead focus on "ok, the automated system has flagged me incorrectly.  I'd like to purchase product, how can we do that now that we are on the phone here live and I'd like access to the product I was originally trying to buy"

Focusing on WHY is like arguing about things they can't control.  Focus on things THEY CAN CONTROL.   That's how you make progress in problem resolution.

there are few aspects that you are probably missed meantime.
MILF was already gone when he realized what's going on. Conversation with CS took additional extra minutes, when CS representative see the red dot in system under 75192 everything she can say is: "I'm sorry but the item is OOS, I can't make this disposition for you"

Maybe in US this type of thing is working differently but in EU CS can't give you any explanation why you became flagged without creating ticket to the tech support.

Making an extra account  just for VIP membership using another CC won't change anything, he is short of 2k USD now and the last thing he will eventually do is risking another 1k.

I will probably buy him one in UK later and will transfer this to Poland covering shipping costs because I feel partially responsible for that.

as mentioned a while ago in different thread. In EU you can call CS 4 times asking same question, and highly likely you will receive 4 different answers.
so it speaks for itself in terms of quality of providing reliable customer service.

[Val-E]

21 minutes ago, Shewie said:

as mentioned a while ago in different thread. In EU you can call CS 4 times asking same question, and highly likely you will receive 4 different answers.
so it speaks for itself in terms of quality of providing reliable customer service.

And that´s valid if you speak to the same CS rep 4 times