75192 - UCS: Millennium Falcon 2017

[citymorgue]

For me, I remember a little over 3 years ago bricklinking this bad boy with all original parts, and it costing a metric ass ton of money to do.  I think at the time, it cost around $1300 to bricklink it.  And It came out a little cheaper than expected, because I managed to get a hold of both the grey mast pieces for free....(don't ask.)

But as far as a release of a new one, I would easily drop $400+ on a new UCS set.  Like others have said, a hardcore collector will find the money no matter what.  Granted for me, I know that if a new MF is very similar to 10179, it will drop the price, but I'm ok with that.  In fact I would welcome it honestly, because then I can buy the last few things I'm missing for the set for even cheaper!!!

I still don't fully buy into people trying to equate the MF being sold in 2008, to what it could potentially do now.  Different time, different market place.  At the end of the day, we all know this is going to be coming down the line, and it was only a matter of time.

I know this is an investor site, and I don't invest, only collect, but for the love of all things, I can't wait for this, and the eventual release of a vastly improved upon 10030.

[Val-E]

With 75105 on the market, a UCS version would really need to be 3000 parts or more to be a worthwhile alternative. With a 500 / 4000 piece euro/usd DS on the market, one would think the new MF would be around that size.

We have seen the trend for larger and larger sets and this one would have been under development in the same period so I guess the trend will continue. If 500-600 USD is too much for some pockets then just wait for discounts.

TLG are in a hard place with this set as too small will get criticism and so will too big/expensive.

I still reckon it will be a lazy rehash rather than a completely new design.

[mudcatsfan]

11 minutes ago, citymorgue said:

I still don't fully buy into people trying to equate the MF being sold in 2008, to what it could potentially do now.  Different time, different market place.  At the end of the day, we all know this is going to be coming down the line, and it was only a matter of time.

This !!

I have heard this reasoning several times. If this set was a 'failure' for Lego and sold for 50% off just to get rid of it, well that was 2008-2010.

MANY, MANY, MANY, AFOL's have been created since then who never even knew Lego was capable of such amazing models at that time. (myself as an example)

I'm not sure there's any correlation, but I seem to remember a US Stock Market crash in October of 2008 and an imploding housing bubble that followed for several years.

Perhaps market conditions were not right for a $500 luxury item that many Star Wars fans had no idea existed.

Perhaps they are IDEAL now. (Star Wars Renaissance under Disney, New Theme Parks, New Movies EVERY year, HAN SOLO being rebooted, etc)

[Sfcommando14]

11 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

This !!

I have heard this reasoning several times. If this set was a 'failure' for Lego and sold for 50% off just to get rid of it, well that was 2008-2010.

MANY, MANY, MANY, AFOL's have been created since then who never even knew Lego was capable of such amazing models at that time. (myself as an example)

I'm not sure there's any correlation, but I seem to remember a US Stock Market crash in October of 2008 and an imploding housing bubble that followed for several years.

Perhaps market conditions were not right for a $500 luxury item that many Star Wars fans had no idea existed.

Perhaps they are IDEAL now. (Star Wars Renaissance under Disney, New Theme Parks, New Movies EVERY year, HAN SOLO being rebooted, etc)

Pretty much this plus a few points.  First, these big sets are not where Lego make their money.  They make it selling hundreds of thousands of the smaller sets over and over again every season.  Having a $600 UCS MF is a "look at the prestige of this toy company" kind of move.  People keep talking as though the success of this or the Death Star has any noticeable impact on Lego's sales numbers.  I'm guessing the impact is minimal, but the marketing campaign and foot traffic/publicity etc. is more than worth the trouble.  Did you see how much good press they got just for saying yes to a set with women scientists?  

Second, there is a new generation of AFOLs with money that didn't have it then or that came out of their dark ages and won't pay the current 10179 prices (me).  But this is 100% a day-1 purchase for me and several other people I know that don't have 10179 and will never pay $2000+ for that set, let alone the current going rate.

So all you naysayers, just don't buy one.  Sell off your last copies of 10179 before the price tanks (it will), and then start QFing the hell out of these for about 6 months, since there is almost no way TLG keeps this thing in stock for a LONG time.

[scuttfarkas]

1 minute ago, Sfcommando14 said:

Pretty much this plus a few points.  First, these big sets are not where Lego make their money.  They make it selling hundreds of thousands of the smaller sets over and over again every season.  Having a $600 UCS MF is a "look at the prestige of this toy company" kind of move.  People keep talking as though the success of this or the Death Star has any noticeable impact on Lego's sales numbers.  I'm guessing the impact is minimal, but the marketing campaign and foot traffic/publicity etc. is more than worth the trouble.  Did you see how much good press they got just for saying yes to a set with women scientists?  

Second, there is a new generation of AFOLs with money that didn't have it then or that came out of their dark ages and won't pay the current 10179 prices (me).  But this is 100% a day-1 purchase for me and several other people I know that don't have 10179 and will never pay $2000+ for that set, let alone the current going rate.

So all you naysayers, just don't buy one.  Sell off your last copies of 10179 before the price tanks (it will), and then start QFing the hell out of these for about 6 months, since there is almost no way TLG keeps this thing in stock for a LONG time.

Why wouldn't the be out for awhile?  The Star Wars franchise is evergreeen now under Disney......and they can go back to the OT timeline whenever they want.  Perhaps the most iconic spaceship of all time?.......They'll keep it out forever; particularly if the new Han Solo movie blows up and demands a sequel or two itself. 

[Sfcommando14]

1 minute ago, scuttfarkas said:

Why wouldn't the be out for awhile?  The Star Wars franchise is evergreeen now under Disney......and they can go back to the OT timeline whenever they want.  Perhaps the most iconic spaceship of all time?.......They'll keep it out forever; particularly if the new Han Solo movie blows up and demands a sequel or two itself. 

 

4 minutes ago, Sfcommando14 said:

So all you naysayers, just don't buy one.  Sell off your last copies of 10179 before the price tanks (it will), and then start QFing the hell out of these for about 6 months, since there is almost no way TLG keeps this thing in stock for a LONG time.

I don't think you understand.  It will be Out of Stock for a long time because new inventory will be purchased immediately.  There are so many people champing at the bit for this set along with the QFLL crowd that they will be hard to come by.  I won't even pretend to have any knowledge on how long it will be available (and I don't really care as I don't invest in exclusives).

[Val-E]

Good point, we saw with the Porsche and Disney Castle how good money was made flipping as there was no supply to meet initial demand. Didn´t work with 75159, though.

[Sfcommando14]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Good point, we saw with the Porsche and Disney Castle how good money was made flipping as there was no supply to meet initial demand. Didn´t work with 75159, though.

True, but that set had been available for $150 less for 8 years.  I don't think anyone expected much of a QF window.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Sfcommando14

[Ed Mack]

The new Falcon will most likely be the replacement for the 75159.  As stated above, it will probably be around forever as well, destroying any chance of it being collectible.  On one hand, I hope it's a smaller, less impressive set.  On the other hand, I hope it's a 6000 piece set, with lights and a highly detailed interior which is priced well over $600...making it an elite set.  Regardless, it will be popular.

[Val-E]

Heuristics say it will be neither and just a rehash with cosmetic changes.

[fantomas007]

The TLG is now able to sell well a set in every size and price - even huge Falcon with 9000 pieces for EUR 1000. The AFOL base is so huge and rising, that there is big, rising demand for big sets in most popular series - SW, modulars, landmarks, technic, etc. Of course, it cannot be extremely - they cannot issue 3 big SW sets in 1 year for EUR 1000 per set. The problem is that TLG calculates, that they will have bigger profit, if they produce Falcon with size between standard model and 10179 for EUR 400, with many play options and figs - because both AFOLs and children will buy it and in numbers bringing a higher profit for TLG, than a huge Falcon with 9000 pieces, even it would be praised by hardcore SW fans.

[Ed Mack]

41 minutes ago, fantomas007 said:

The TLG is now able to sell well a set in every size and price - even huge Falcon with 9000 pieces for EUR 1000. The AFOL base is so huge and rising, that there is big, rising demand for big sets in most popular series - SW, modulars, landmarks, technic, etc. Of course, it cannot be extremely - they cannot issue 3 big SW sets in 1 year for EUR 1000 per set. The problem is that TLG calculates, that they will have bigger profit, if they produce Falcon with size between standard model and 10179 for EUR 400, with many play options and figs - because both AFOLs and children will buy it and in numbers bringing a higher profit for TLG, than a huge Falcon with 9000 pieces, even it would be praised by hardcore SW fans.

Profits are decreasing and counterfeiters are reproducing every major set.  Conservative might be the way to go.  

[landphieran]

6 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Profits are decreasing and counterfeiters are reproducing every major set.  Conservative might be the way to go.  

Do you believe this could be a move to confront counterfeiting? 

Essentially offering "refreshed" models of old classics at a more "reasonable" price. Enticing buyers away from the counterfeit MF?

[KShine]

19 minutes ago, landphieran said:

Do you believe this could be a move to confront counterfeiting? 

Essentially offering "refreshed" models of old classics at a more "reasonable" price. Enticing buyers away from the counterfeit MF?

LEGO started "refreshing" before the fakes started going all out - Yes, there were some fakes minifigs & such, but not a full choice of sets like they have now.

[CM4Sci]

Here's some stuff

Brickset is missing listing 75181. It's not a Last Jedi set nor does it seem to be an exclusive. Maybe this is the supposed Falcon.

[Val-E]

6 minutes ago, CM4Sci said:

Here's some stuff

Brickset is missing listing 75181. It's not a Last Jedi set nor does it seem to be an exclusive. Maybe this is the supposed Falcon.

I thought it would be 75179 but they have that down in a small box size.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Val-E

[CM4Sci]

42 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I thought it would be 75179 but they have that down in a small box size.

IIRC that's the 3rd TLJ set 

[Val-E]

23 minutes ago, CM4Sci said:

IIRC that's the 3rd TLJ set 

Yeah TBC set numbers and metric dimensions are:

75176 TLJ 0.43kg 35x19x6

75177 TLJ 0.6kg 38x26x6 (same box as B Wing 75050)

75179 TLJ 1.1kg 54x28x8 (same box as Mos Eisley 75052)

75181 - no details

75187 TLJ 1.3 38x37x9 (same box as IST 75094)

75188 TLJ 1.4kg 48x38x7 (same size box as AT AT 75054)

75189 TLJ 1.8kg 48x38x9 (similar size to AT AT 75054)

75190 TLJ 2.3kg 58x37x10 (similar size to ISD 75055)

75192 Star Wars unknown

75193 Star Wars unknown

Edited March 15, 2017 by Val-E

[CM4Sci]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Yeah TBC set numbers and metric dimensions are:

75176 TLJ 0.43kg 35x19x6

75177 TLJ 0.6kg 38x26x6 (same box as B Wing 75050)

75179 TLJ 1.1kg 54x28x8 (same box as Mos Eisley 75052)

75181 - no details

75187 TLJ 1.3 38x37x9 (same box as IST 75094)

75188 TLJ 1.4kg 48x38x7 (same size box as AT AT 75054)

75189 TLJ 1.8kg 48x38x9 (similar size to AT AT 75054)

75190 TLJ 2.3kg 58x37x10 (similar size to ISD 75055)

75192 Star Wars unknown

75193 Star Wars unknown

I think 91-93 are 2018 cause those aren't.. we don't know em yet! 

So we'll have to see 

[Val-E]

91 is already known:

http://brickset.com/sets/75191-1/Jedi-Starfighter-with-Hyperdrive-Booster-Ring

 

[Alpinemaps]

Moved a large volume of the new UCS MF talk over here to this thread.  Please continue that conversation here.

[Darth_Raichu]

The 1st post was from 2014

[Alpinemaps]

The 1st post was from 2014

I had to change the thread title from 2016 to 2017. I think I changed it from 2015 to 2016, too.

[jay4e]

I think 91-93 are 2018 cause those aren't.. we don't know em yet! 
So we'll have to see 

more likely they are store exclusives (tru, target, or walmat) those are usually at the end of the numbering, and are less likely to leak ahead of the reveals.

[Cheese]

Any ideas when we will get unofficial leaks on this? :-)