Biggest let down of 2016 retirees - Early Knee Jerk Reaction

[Sprocket77]

We all like a good knee jerk reaction and as I was looking through ebay sales, I was just thinking how a few of last years retirements had disappointed so far.

Really thought Ecto-1 and the White House would be stronger out the gate, but I guess so did everyone else and they must have been seriously hoarded. Looking at Ecto-1 on Bricklink, it's sales are similar enough, if even a little stronger than Wall-e, but there's still 3 times as many Ecto-1's for sale as Wall-E's, which will stunt the growth.

Anyone else got any they had much higher expectations of?

Just thought of another, Shuttle Tyderium, definitely no At-At or Star Destroyer.

Edited August 30, 2017 by Sprocket77

[mauro23]

20 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

We all like a good knee jerk reaction and as I was looking through ebay sales, I was just thinking how a few of last years retirements had disappointed so far.

Really thought Ecto-1 and the White House would be stronger out the gate, but I guess so did everyone else and they must have been seriously hoarded. Looking at Ecto-1 on Bricklink, it's sales are similar enough, if even a little stronger than Wall-e, but there's still 3 times as many Ecto-1's for sale as Wall-E's, which will stunt the growth.

Anyone else got any they had much higher expectations of?

Just thought of another, Shuttle Tyderium, definitely no At-At or Star Destroyer.

The game is simply over...

Look at Trevis, Mazes etc... Even they were not heavily hoarded there are still enough there to cover the demand.

The reason for that is that LEGO brings so many new sets out every year and the people have to decide either to buy the newest one or the retired one. They have no money to buy the new and retired one as it was case several years ago when LEGO has brought out only few sets a year.

The unique profitable thing is to quickflip some sets like 21309 or the new Falcon until LEGO produced enough to cover the demand. Here and only here for the 21309 I see really the chance that the supply could be to low to cover the demand throughout the whole production phase. In such case we would have two possible scenarios:

1. LEGO produces Saturn V several years (pretty impossible due to license timeframe)

2. Production line is over 2018 and the price doubles in few months and goes up and up afterwards (better than for Mars Rover)

Edited August 30, 2017 by mauro23

[redcell]

The game is hardly over. You just have to learn what to pick and what to avoid. My general rule of thumb lately has been to avoid any set that is openly discussed here unless I can get it at a serious discount.

[Sprocket77]

The games not over, plenty of sets from last year have done nicely, look at Scooby Doo or Jurassic World. The ones I've mentioned just got hoarded by too many people.

[Val-E]

Oh yeah, this is my kind of thread! Let me think about it for a while.

[tawsauce]

I'm definitely more picky about which sets I choose. I rarely buy any at retail price. I don't know if this set retired in 2016, lost track. But the T. Rex Tracker 75918 is my personal biggest let down. Even then its not that bad. I managed to buy a handful at $49. Selling them has been slow though. I have them on eBay for 109.99 w/free shipping. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Of course, the biggest disappointment has been the 10218 Pet Shop and I'm struggling to get even RRP for mine - the modular game is over and  not buying any of them again. They are my biggest buyer's remorse set to date. I agree with Mauro23 as times have definitely changed. There is simply too much supply of retired sets, even very good ones. The only way to make money nowadays is to flip TOOS sets like 21309 or buy at a 75% discount. Even with the new Jurassic World sets rumoured, there'll be so many more people in "the game" that it simply dilutes it for the more established players.

It's still very early days for Ecto1, Doctor Who and White House, I can still return a profit if I sold mine now. But, we need the supply to diminish a bit first.

Back in 2015, I was clearing over £700 pre-tax profit per week and I struggled to get near that per month during 2016. This is why I'm taking 2017 (at least) off. It's not just the QFLLs, even occasional sellers are pitching their prices too low.

Little Timmy's mummy will pay through the nose for 21309 this Xmas so charge at least £250/€275/$300... please!

My 2017 turkey predictions are:

Palace Cinema - modulars have had their day.

TFA Millennium Falcon - was immediately hugely discounted and simply too many out there.

All Star Wars contraction figures apart from General Grievous - too many made and most look ridiculous.

All Technic/Friends/City/SuperHeroes - little originality, too many rehashes, too many out there and often discounted.

It doesn't leave a lot, does it?

 

 

[KShine]

The game isn't over, it just isn't much fun - especially since fewer seem interested in playing.

[marcandre]

75094 was easy to get at half off. I averaged $55 buy on that. If you consider that it's doing pretty good. If you go by rrp it's a flop.... The Ecto probably just needs more time. May never reach Delorean status but hopefully breaks $100 soon. If it gets stuck around $80 I would worry about the firehouse as a good investment.

75150 has been a disappointment for me. It had a short run and still can't get past rrp. It was also easy to get at half off so not a disaster but I hoped for a little better by now. Star Wars theme is just so saturated these days it's going to be tough for anything to break out.

50% off is the new 30% off in Lego investing. 

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, redcell said:

The game is hardly over. You just have to learn what to pick and what to avoid. My general rule of thumb lately has been to avoid any set that is openly discussed here unless I can get it at a serious discount.

Up to a point, I agree. There were about a dozen and a half decent sleeper sets from 2016 that could have been bought at RRP and now bring in more net profit than many discounted sets. That was even despite TLG flagging them as retiring soon on their web, so the game is indeed not over. Here, it´s been a year of spectacular discounts and that has probably saved things as some good sets could be got at up to 70% off and should be profitable at Xmas.

75150 Awing v Tie, 41119 Friends Plane and 70590 Ninjago Training could have been in that category due to their short production lives but it seems so many were made that they will struggle to make decent returns, even when bought at 50% off so they would be my 2 biggest disappointments as I didn´t expect that at the beginning

The other big general disappointment has been the performance of all 2016 retired large exclusives. Pet Shop and Ewok were givens but Sandcrawler, Opera and Fairground Mixers should have done better by now.

 

 

[Huskers1236]

38 minutes ago, marcandre said:

75094 was easy to get at half off. I averaged $55 buy on that. If you consider that it's doing pretty good. If you go by rrp it's a flop.... The Ecto probably just needs more time. May never reach Delorean status but hopefully breaks $100 soon. If it gets stuck around $80 I would worry about the firehouse as a good investment.

75150 has been a disappointment for me. It had a short run and still can't get past rrp. It was also easy to get at half off so not a disaster but I hoped for a little better by now. Star Wars theme is just so saturated these days it's going to be tough for anything to break out.

50% off is the new 30% off in Lego investing. 

I agree with this very much, with mainstream sets at least.  30% hardly moves the needle for me anymore unless it's a more premium set.  

[andyposterfan]

I bought too many contraction SW sets. This will scare you... my average by in was probably 70% off RRP, but they are so easy to pick up on ebay for 50% off that they are just not worth going through the hassle. I prioritised the non-human head characters as they look better. I will probably have to sell them in groups of 4 to turn a small profit.

Most annoyingly, they are taking up valuable space that could be used for others sets...  (...I should probably take this gripe to the SW contraction thread..)

[Scatterbug]

I thought the Deep Sea theme would have shown a nice little uplift.

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, Scatterbug said:

I thought the Deep Sea theme would have shown a nice little uplift.

The boat is doing alright.

1 hour ago, marcandre said:

75094 was easy to get at half off. I averaged $55 buy on that. If you consider that it's doing pretty good. If you go by rrp it's a flop.... The Ecto probably just needs more time. May never reach Delorean status but hopefully breaks $100 soon. If it gets stuck around $80 I would worry about the firehouse as a good investment.

75150 has been a disappointment for me. It had a short run and still can't get past rrp. It was also easy to get at half off so not a disaster but I hoped for a little better by now. Star Wars theme is just so saturated these days it's going to be tough for anything to break out.

50% off is the new 30% off in Lego investing. 

2 years ago everyone was begging for 20% off.

[Deanfjr]

75150 : Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-Wing Starfighter

my pooper so far...

[exciter1]

60074 - City: Demolition Bulldozer

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

60074 - City: Demolition Bulldozer

Has any CITY set from 2016 done well, though? Maybe the medivac plane and the 4x4 with boat?

[feed]

12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Has any CITY set from 2016 done well, though? Maybe the medivac plane and the 4x4 with boat?

Off RRP or price paid.  60095: Deep Sea Exploration Vessel is moving at retail and it was more or less permanent 50%.   

Honestly i think 2016-2017 has been great, but based of off the huge discounts we had.  

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, feed said:

Off RRP or price paid.  60095: Deep Sea Exploration Vessel is moving at retail and it was more or less permanent 50%.   

Honestly i think 2016-2017 has been great, but based of off the huge discounts we had.  

Off RRP paid and not sold on FBA! In previous years there were a good number of sets like Logging Truck, Cargo Plane etc that sold above RRP shortly after retirement. Of the big sets, Space 60080 seems to be the one with the most solid residuals.

[exciter1]

20 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Has any CITY set from 2016 done well, though? Maybe the medivac plane and the 4x4 with boat?

Race Bike Transporter and Tow Truck have done pretty well.  I cleared mine out at $45.

[feed]

14 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Off RRP paid and not sold on FBA! In previous years there were a good number of sets like Logging Truck, Cargo Plane etc that sold above RRP shortly after retirement. Of the big sets, Space 60080 seems to be the one with the most solid residuals.

Different game though this year, those 2016 discounts makes it so.  I spent about £35k on stock last year with an average 48% set discount.  So RRP on all of it is just fine for me.  Be a while before common stock moves much above RRP.   Agree on the spaceport, my buy in was £29, so that may take a while too.   

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, feed said:

Different game though this year, those 2016 discounts makes it so.  I spent about £35k on stock last year with an average 48% set discount.  So RRP on all of it is just fine for me.  Be a while before common stock moves much above RRP.   Agree on the spaceport, my buy in was £29, so that may take a while too.   

Yup. People were fine with 20% off when stuff sold for 2xRRP or more shortly after RRP. 70% off when things might just scrape  RRP someday before the set is remade is more or less the same, just meaning you acquire more units and have to trade in higher volumes.

Edited August 30, 2017 by Val-E

[Guest TabbyBoy]

43 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Off RRP paid and not sold on FBA! In previous years there were a good number of sets like Logging Truck, Cargo Plane etc that sold above RRP shortly after retirement. Of the big sets, Space 60080 seems to be the one with the most solid residuals.

Going big on 60080 when Tesco mistakenly priced them at £17 AND 3-for-2 (£11.33 each) was my best move to date. I'm not selling mine until they exceed RRP consistently. Even at £35, it was a no brainer. I admit, I'm tempted to get a SatV to go with each one!

[dcdfan]

I bought too many contraction SW sets.
Most annoyingly, they are taking up valuable space that could be used for others sets...  (...I should probably take this gripe to the SW contraction thread..)

There's a thread for them. lol.

[fossilrock]

I'd say the force awakens sets that retired last year are the biggest letdown for me.   It's definitely made me reconsider buying too many of the sets that are retiring this year from that theme (Kylo's Interceptor, the X-wings, FO Tie, etc).  It's also made me very skeptical about the Last Jedi waves.

Jurassic World and Scooby Doo on the other hand have been great.  I don't even regret stocking up on some of those early in their life when they were hard to land.  At this point, that theme is great, and I will definitely buy Fallen Kingdom sets too.

Edited August 30, 2017 by fossilrock