What Exclusive Set will take the longest post EOL to reach 1.5 x RRP

[Sprocket77]

Just looking at the other side of the coin from the 5xRRP thread and just wondering what exclusive sets people think will struggle to make any solid gains after retirement.

My two cents worth is the Batman Classic Series Batcave. Price has already been permanently reduced by nearly 25% here and looking at the online stock levels of our biggest retailer, nearly every store has twice the number of these of any other big ticket set they stock.

I went with 1.5 times RRP because the way some exclusives are going, double RRP might be a bit too optimistic.

[brickvoyeur]

75159 Death Star

As it's a gold mine for LEGO. They will continue to sell when they change the number to 77777 and include a brand new golden cheese slope and slightly wavier hair for Han.

[John82]

Good call on the Batcave, I would have to agree with that one.

I can't see the Death Star or Disney Castle ever having a long retirement.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I would say none as there are no current exclusive sets on sale in the UK. Everything is sold nearly everywhere and is very easy to find ;-)

The Batman Movie Maker may be the only exception, but this will probably fall into the abyss once the movie is forgotten. The Batcave is far from exclusive in the UK, sorry.

[Sprocket77]

13 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I would say none as there are no current exclusive sets on sale in the UK. Everything is sold nearly everywhere and is very easy to find ;-)

The Batman Movie Maker may be the only exception, but this will probably fall into the abyss once the movie is forgotten. The Batcave is far from exclusive in the UK, sorry.

You know well what I mean by exclusive, sets which Lego themselves, on their wonderfully knowledgeable and efficient website class as exclusive.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

You know well what I mean by exclusive, sets which Lego themselves, on their wonderfully knowledgeable and efficient website class as exclusive.

OK... I was being pedantic, my vote is 10214 Tower Bridge.

[HandyHand]

I vote for 75159 Death Star as well. Can't see that set reaching €750 (1.5 x Dutch RRP of €500) in the coming many years.

[Val-E]

I´ll take Ass on Hoth - you know what I mean....

Current exclusive sets I doubt will reach 1.5 RRP in current market conditions: Batcave, Death Star, AoH, ToA, The Village, TB, KWEM, SHIELD and GBHQ.

The one I think has the best chance is probably Slave 1.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Val-E

[exciter1]

21 minutes ago, Haay said:

I vote for 75159 Death Star as well. Can't see that set reaching €750 (1.5 x Dutch RRP of €500) in the coming many years.

Why are we discussing 75159, when it will probably be around for another 8 years?

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Why are we discussing 75159, when it will probably be around for another 8 years?

You could say the same about TB and T1!

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1.5x RRP does seem a little optimistic for short term gains in the current era of retail arbitrage. I would like to see true limited exclusives like the 21104 Mars Rover, 21110 Research Institute and 41999 Crawler return to the "game" and rekindle the interest that some of us have lost.

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

1.5x RRP does seem a little optimistic for short term gains in the current era of retail arbitrage. I would like to see true limited exclusives like the 21104 Mars Rover, 21110 Research Institute and 41999 Crawler return to the "game" and rekindle the interest that some of us have lost.

Not gonna happen. TLG need all the sales they can get to maintain momentum and past LE sets have been nothing but negative publicity with angry customers not able to get them before the horde. Your best bets are the exclusives to one store and Lego Shop as some of those have been great investments - RE, Arctic Plane etc.

The next UCS Falcon will also be pretty exclusive, I can´t see many shops stocking it at that RRP.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Val-E

[justapilgrim]

Recently retired Death Star 10188 may never hit $600

[Val-E]

1 minute ago, justapilgrim said:

Recently retired Death Star 10188 may never hit $600

It reached 1.5 RRP in Europe last Jan. I think the OP was also referring to current sets.

[Fenix_2k1]

1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said:

Just looking at the other side of the coin from the 5xRRP thread and just wondering what exclusive sets people think will struggle to make any solid gains after retirement.

My two cents worth is the Batman Classic Series Batcave. Price has already been permanently reduced by nearly 25% here and looking at the online stock levels of our biggest retailer, nearly every store has twice the number of these of any other big ticket set they stock.

I went with 1.5 times RRP because the way some exclusives are going, double RRP might be a bit too optimistic.

Have to second the batcave. After building it I have commented that it is a set that just doesn't fit anywhere. It's a playset based on an adult theme that has zero displayability.

GB firehouse could fall into a similar category but it is actually a great display piece that fits nicely in a Creator expert town line up.

With the other sets people have mentioned the main thing stopping rises above 1.5 x rrp is the number hoarded. With PS,SC and EV doing so poorly post eol I can already see a shift in attitudes towards putting money and storage space into large sets that are a PITA to sell. That will hopefully bring about a market correction in future years. 

[Val-E]

The correction already happened, unless you mean a positive correction of the negative correction - in which case I stand corrected.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Val-E

[Fenix_2k1]

I mean going back to a market where demand >= supply because people have had their fingers burned.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Fenix_2k1
Because John82 pointed out I am a dumbass who needs to proof read his posts lol

[John82]

18 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

I mean going back to a market where supply >= demand because people have had their fingers burned.