Ideas #017: 21309/92176 - NASA Apollo Saturn V

[mauro23]

4 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

What are the production figures for 21309 and 21104? Most markets get saturated in the beginning, even the Delorean was resold at under RRP for a while and was available discounted everywhere without limits. Nobody really knows how 21309 will perform, but I'm willing to go all in and take a chance.

21104 - 30000 pieces

21309 - at least 100000 pieces until now

[Val-E]

5 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

What are the production figures for 21309 and 21104? Most markets get saturated in the beginning, even the Delorean was resold at under RRP for a while and was available discounted everywhere without limits. Nobody really knows how 21309 will perform, but I'm willing to go all in and take a chance.

And I respect that but unless you flipped during OOS periods, you have money tied up in a set that won´t do anything for at least 12 months. I´d rather be using that to get other stuff to flip quickly and reinvest in S5 next year and at discount. YMMV 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 minute ago, mauro23 said:

21104 - 30000 pieces

21309 - at least 100000 pieces until now

I've heard that the T1 is approaching 2,500,000, but I don't know where they get the numbers from. I would expect these to be the most closely guarded secrets of all as it gives more guidance than any retirement date would.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I've heard that the T1 is approaching 2,500,000, but I don't know where they get the numbers from. I would expect these to be the most closely guarded secrets of all as it gives more guidance than any retirement date would.

They have probably made more models of T1 than the real thing. That is certainly true with Tower Bridge!

[jaylay]

Question ... 1 mil, 10 mil ... no matter how many has already been made, how many of those do you think made it to the end user? Ide be surprised if at least 15% made it out to the end user. Fact is, it’s still selling above MSRP and as long as it does that’s a good sign. Once the QFLLs run out price will climb again.

Just came back from NYC, Seattle and here in Hawaii I still haven’t seen one in store. Stock varies around the nation.

It’s still a great investment. And those that have money will buy and store. No problem.

That said I’ve got my max of 10 for the future.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

3 hours ago, mauro23 said:

TabbyBoy is wrong for three reasons....

1. The demand on this set has decreased and the price is even on Ebay coming to MSRP... Beside this the set is really everywhere...

2. And I, as Godfather of investment, say, do NOT invest in these sets... And I have made only one big mistake in my 10 years of investment (bought 100 x 21110 at double MSRP)

3. Which sense would TabbyBoy have in telling everybody to invest in this set and increase the competition? The reason is simple, he invests industriously in another set...

LOL - I'm only referring to the UK and I don't care about overseas markets right now.

I've never paid over RRP for any set and I never will. If I miss the boat, I'll just catch the next one.

I invest heavily in a lot of sets including 3 that aren't mentioned on here. There are millions upon millions of space fans and I believe that LEGO will never produce enough to satisfy them all. The time to worry is when this set resells for well under RRP, which I don't think will happen.

There you go... I'm positive about a set which is rare for me ;-)

[HandyHand]

3 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

LOL - I'm only referring to the UK and I don't care about overseas markets right now.

I've never paid over RRP for any set and I never will. If I miss the boat, I'll just catch the next one.

I invest heavily in a lot of sets including 3 that aren't mentioned on here. There are millions upon millions of space fans and I believe that LEGO will never produce enough to satisfy them all. The time to worry is when this set resells for well under RRP, which I don't think will happen.

There you go... I'm positive about a set which is rare for me ;-)

I still remember late 2015 ... Seeing the popular Star Wars sets AT-AT (75054) and ISD (75055) literally everywhere and discounted to around €100 (from RRP €130 / €140 respectively). I remember thinking: surely everyone who would want one of these sets has got them by now. These sets were mass produced to show up in every brick & mortar toy store regardless how big or small the city or village was. And still... We all saw how these widely available Lego sets went up in value after they retired.

Regardless of how popular the Saturn V set is these months, I do not believe for one second that LEGO has been producing more Saturn V sets than 75054 and 75055. By the time the Saturn V retires, the total number of Saturn V sets produced will still be much smaller than the total number of 75055 and 75054 sets produced respectively.

In this case I fully agree with TabbyBoy. Saturn V is a more than superb set. A one of a kind that won't be produced by Lego again after it retires. Of course there will be lowballers selling it for around RRP after it retires to make a meagre 10% profit. But when they've run out and the supply dwindles, it will be the likes of TabbyBoy with a warehouse full of Saturn V sets who will be laughing all the way to the bank.

[Val-E]

You can´t compare 2 of the most iconic sets from Lego´s strongest licenced theme over the last 10 years with S5. For a start S5 is more directed at AFOLS and secondly, the SW sets were easy to find at 40% off and more so people had a scaled exit.

With s5 being an ideas set, discounts will be fewer and far between so come EOL time there won´t be such a scaled out and there won´t be anywhere near as much demand. 

Give me 2 ISDs over an S5 any day.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I see we have a difference of opinion, which is good in a healthy marketplace. Nobody knows how well S5 will perform, but I'm bloody well looking forward to it!

[JRandall]

7 hours ago, Val-E said:

You can´t compare 2 of the most iconic sets from Lego´s strongest licenced theme over the last 10 years with S5. For a start S5 is more directed at AFOLS and secondly, the SW sets were easy to find at 40% off and more so people had a scaled exit.

With s5 being an ideas set, discounts will be fewer and far between so come EOL time there won´t be such a scaled out and there won´t be anywhere near as much demand. 

Give me 2 ISDs over an S5 any day.

I'd agree it's targeted at AFOLs, but how many youths of today go to LEGO events that may not have been around 10 years ago, and how many of them have parents who can afford a $100 set.  I'd say tens of thousands who see it as a potential large christmas or birthday gift.  Knowing the push for STEM in schools, and how many of these kids have greater exposure to LEGO early on and are interested in scientific areas, this set is probably a huge hit for them also.  It's also winner because it's both academic/historical/scientific, rather than just a fantasy castle set or a super hero set that might be put away or broken up within a few years or of little interest to a kid/adult.  If this set lasts 2 years of less I'd speculate it will double in value quickly even though with current demand I'm sure LEGO is already thinking up other space based sets they can create to follow this.  I don't think we're operating in a time-period of 3X-5X MSRP anymore with any set simple because of the knockoffs, LEGO production increase, and reseller frenzy that started 2 years ago, but I do think cheaper sets that have both quality and are iconic like this set can reach double value as long as they keep them limited to a few years and they don't have initial pricing in the $200+ range. I think those days of 3X or more gains on any set over $100 are long gone and never going to return. I've really had zero interest in any larger LEGO set for investment from 2015 onward, but I see this set being possibly the only sure thing that doesn't break the bank to come along in quite a while.

Edited November 27, 2017 by JRandall

[Guest TabbyBoy]

19 hours ago, Val-E said:

They have probably made more models of T1 than the real thing. That is certainly true with Tower Bridge!

Well, LEGO is the World's biggest tyre (tire) manufacturer!

[Guest TabbyBoy]

7 hours ago, JRandall said:

I'd agree it's targeted at AFOLs, but how many youths of today go to LEGO events that may not have been around 10 years ago, and how many of them have parents who can afford a $100 set.  I'd say tens of thousands who see it as a potential large christmas or birthday gift.  Knowing the push for STEM in schools, and how many of these kids have greater exposure to LEGO early on and are interested in scientific areas, this set is probably a huge hit for them also.  It's also winner because it's both academic/historical/scientific, rather than just a fantasy castle set or a super hero set that might be put away or broken up within a few years or of little interest to a kid/adult.  If this set lasts 2 years of less I'd speculate it will double in value quickly even though with current demand I'm sure LEGO is already thinking up other space based sets they can create to follow this.  I don't think we're operating in a time-period of 3X-5X MSRP anymore with any set simple because of the knockoffs, LEGO production increase, and reseller frenzy that started 2 years ago, but I do think cheaper sets that have both quality and are iconic like this set can reach double value as long as they keep them limited to a few years and they don't have initial pricing in the $200+ range. I think those days of 3X or more gains on any set over $100 are long gone and never going to return. I've really had zero interest in any larger LEGO set for investment from 2015 onward, but I see this set being possibly the only sure thing that doesn't break the bank to come along in quite a while.

Makes sense. 21309 S5 is the only £100+ RRP set that I've bought this year. Seeing it reach £250 a year or so after EOL is realistic I think. On the other hand, I'm done with modulars after being burned with the Pet Shop no matter how nice they look.

[nolan808]

Not 100 percent sure if this has been mentioned but the ship that everyone can't get enough off is now SOLD OUT on the uk lego site. First time I've seen this happens to it (retire please lol) maybe getting ahead of myself haha

[cladner]

11 minutes ago, raulaco said:

Not 100 percent sure if this has been mentioned but the ship that everyone can't get enough off is now SOLD OUT on the uk lego site. First time I've seen this happens to it (retire please lol) maybe getting ahead of myself haha

awesome - no one can complain that they haven't had a chance to buy this set .  i'm up to 34.  EOL now would be so sweet.   champagne papi meme is chilling.

bah...bah... but its not on the list...

Edited November 29, 2017 by cladner

[Guest TabbyBoy]

23 minutes ago, raulaco said:

Not 100 percent sure if this has been mentioned but the ship that everyone can't get enough off is now SOLD OUT on the uk lego site. First time I've seen this happens to it (retire please lol) maybe getting ahead of myself haha

Am I allowed to feel a bit smug now?

[Pebble&Park]

Just now, TabbyBoy said:

Am I allowed to feel a bit smug now?

Your smugness is assumed by everyone to be at a constant high level. No need to remind us. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Bashing John Lewis now back-to-back 5 at a time ;-)

[Captain_chaos]

On 11/27/2017 at 12:02 PM, TabbyBoy said:

Makes sense. 21309 S5 is the only £100+ RRP set that I've bought this year. Seeing it reach £250 a year or so after EOL is realistic I think. On the other hand, I'm done with modulars after being burned with the Pet Shop no matter how nice they look.

I did buy a PC for investment recently, but it was £75, so given that LEGO Shop at Home didn't have them reduced here I feel that was a good enough price.

[carini26]

30 minutes ago, cladner said:

bah...bah... but its not on the list...

1

Curious, did we know ahead of time specific sets released in 2nd half '16 scheduled to poof by yearend?  ie - Dragon Sanctuary, etc?

[Pebble&Park]

9 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Bashing John Lewis now back-to-back 5 at a time ;-)

Don't let posting here slow you down.

[cladner]

48 minutes ago, carini26 said:

Curious, did we know ahead of time specific sets released in 2nd half '16 scheduled to poof by yearend?  ie - Dragon Sanctuary, etc?

personally i didn't and if anyone did, they kept that info to themselves.  i was wondering the same thing.

[nolan808]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

Am I allowed to feel a bit smug now?

Not quite yet lol but the signs are looking good. Noticed also that the uk isn' the only one saying sold out.

[Val-E]

They sold out the 5th December batch - finally. Nothing to see folks, move along now.

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by Val-E

[thebrickdad]

Very report: "Awaiting stock. Expected back in stock on Friday 15th December"

[Guest TabbyBoy]

At least we'll know in a few weeks whether to take "Sold Out" on LEGO's website seriously. The good news is that we know demand continues to be strong. Even though "Sold Out" should be good news for me, I still have a gut feeling that it will be back with a vengeance just in time for Xmas to kill of any QFLLs on eBay. I'm looking forward to see if VERY do get any stock in for 15DEC or not.

Have any of you pre-ordered from Very yet and, if so, has your credit card been charged?