Ideas #017: 21309/92176 - NASA Apollo Saturn V

[HandyHand]

In case anyone is still wondering ... Just go to the LEGO Shop at Home LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 page and browse through the 61 pages of 242 raving user reviews where this set is generally being hailed as the best set EVER created by LEGO.

This set will never ever become outdated. No matter what happens, the rocket that brought the first humans to the moon is one of the most historic things ever created by Humanity. Even 200 years from now it will still be regarded as a milestone in our Humanity's History. And so this LEGO set will be absolute GOLD once it officially retires. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Limit 1 would’ve been the sensible option. It’s obvious that the fleecers were waiting to pounce. Hmmm.... does that mean LEGO’s core buyers are now the resellers? A stormy voyage ahead I think.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, Haay said:

In case anyone is still wondering ... Just go to the LEGO Shop at Home LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 page and browse through the 61 pages of 242 raving user reviews where this set is generally being hailed as the best set EVER created by LEGO.

This set will never ever become outdated. No matter what happens, the rocket that brought the first humans to the moon is one of the most historic things ever created by Humanity. Even 200 years from now it will still be regarded as a milestone in our Humanity's History. And so this LEGO set will be absolute GOLD once it officially retires. 

It’s simply the biggest no-brainer to date. I hope to get £300+ for mine in 2019 to cover the one I’m building and the one I donated. I suggest those that still have Mars Rovers to hold them a bit longer.

[Fenix_2k1]

Don't mention gold. That'll get an article in the national press and turn it into The Tumbler

[Guest TabbyBoy]

16 minutes ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Don't mention gold. That'll get an article in the national press and turn it into The Tumbler

It's OK as long as it's mentioned AFTER it's retired. Otherwise, it'll hang on for years.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, Fenix_2k1 said:

Don't mention gold. That'll get an article in the national press and turn it into The Tumbler

Yeah, The Tumbler crossed my mind too when thinking about the eulogies towards this set. I have set my stall out to avoid it unless at deep discount, just like any other set. Crucify me this time next year if I am wrong.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Yeah, The Tumbler crossed my mind too when thinking about the eulogies towards this set. I have set my stall out to avoid it unless at deep discount, just like any other set. Crucify me this time next year if I am wrong.

We'll take a photo when we string you up by your chest hairs! ;-)

[Val-E]

16 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

We'll take a photo when we string you up by your chest hairs! ;-)

I am not an Ewok!

[thebluewizard]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

Limit 1 would’ve been the sensible option. It’s obvious that the fleecers were waiting to pounce. Hmmm.... does that mean LEGO’s core buyers are now the resellers? A stormy voyage ahead I think.

You seem to have trouble understanding LEGO's basic business model.

[Val-E]

8 minutes ago, thebluewizard said:

You seem to have trouble understanding LEGO's basic business model.

To be fair, Lego don´t seem to understand it anymore either.

[blocp13]

I 

30 minutes ago, Val-E said:

To be fair, Lego don´t seem to understand it anymore either.

I don't think it's just the saturn that's has got less production, but I have been into John Lewis, and various supermarkets this week also looking online for some sets and it is very scarce out there 1-2 of each set and many empty spaces. Maybe we are getting shorter shelf lives per set?

Maybe big change is ahead.

[LegoMan1212]

54 minutes ago, blocp13 said:

I 

I don't think it's just the saturn that's has got less production, but I have been into John Lewis, and various supermarkets this week also looking online for some sets and it is very scarce out there 1-2 of each set and many empty spaces. Maybe we are getting shorter shelf lives per set?

Maybe big change is ahead.

I'm not going to go all-in on this set.  I flipped a few when I had the chance when it was released and I'm very satisfied with that.  But, if I was Lego.  This would be the next Tower Bridge (I believe this is the set that comes up most often about never retiring).  Why? Cause why the hell not!  It's making money baby and selling out every time it is produced.  That's the whole point of being in business is to find something awesome and then use that as your corvette for as long as possible.  If the market is going to keep buying them up, then flood the damn thing until it's dry.   

Just saying, there is no reason to suddenly cut the cord on this one.  Now, I haven't been in the "Lego" market nearly as long as many of you, but when I see Profits down as a report and then see something they are selling making a killing, I think the dots connect themselves. 

Just my 2 cents of course and I'm okay if I'm 100% wrong on this. We all have our own opinions.  This is mine at this very moment.  I will say though, that if I had the room to house these, I would probably buy some more and if it didn't pan out. I wouldn't be too upset over it.  Just like gambling, only put in what you are willing to lose, or in this case, stuck with.

Take care guys and gals!

[blocp13]

I

20 minutes ago, LegoMan1212 said:

  It's making money baby and selling out every time it is produced. 

I have a few of these picked up in SAH when you could flip for £170 - £180, but looking today they are listed on ebay UK for £123 BIN collection only which just seems mad.

There are over 100 listings BIN and 10 on auction, like someone said above maybe it's the resellers buying all the stock, myself included. ( I wont be buying any more)

There is however 1-2 selling everyday at the moment so demand is there. I'm not selling for £10 profit and am happy to sit.

I have no interest to build the set  so won't be opening one up.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

13 hours ago, LegoMan1212 said:

I'm not going to go all-in on this set.  I flipped a few when I had the chance when it was released and I'm very satisfied with that.  But, if I was Lego.  This would be the next Tower Bridge (I believe this is the set that comes up most often about never retiring).  Why? Cause why the hell not!  It's making money baby and selling out every time it is produced.  That's the whole point of being in business is to find something awesome and then use that as your corvette for as long as possible.  If the market is going to keep buying them up, then flood the damn thing until it's dry.   

Just saying, there is no reason to suddenly cut the cord on this one.  Now, I haven't been in the "Lego" market nearly as long as many of you, but when I see Profits down as a report and then see something they are selling making a killing, I think the dots connect themselves. 

Just my 2 cents of course and I'm okay if I'm 100% wrong on this. We all have our own opinions.  This is mine at this very moment.  I will say though, that if I had the room to house these, I would probably buy some more and if it didn't pan out. I wouldn't be too upset over it.  Just like gambling, only put in what you are willing to lose, or in this case, stuck with.

Take care guys and gals!

Good comments, but why didn't LEGO produce more 21104 Mars Rovers or make them unexclusive to LEGO so that they'd be sold everywhere in vast quantities? It could be just a case of unprecedented demand and 21309 is simply best LEGO set that I've ever seen!

Because it seems great value at £109.99 (it still would've sold out at £169.99), LEGO may not be making as much profit on this so may be limiting production. I bet they wished that they'd priced it higher now.

If I was back in the game, I'd buy only 21309 Saturn Vs and as many as I could - no need to buy any other set. This has tempted be to return, but I'm just so busy now with other things and I no longer have the vast, free, secure storage space.

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

Good comments, but why didn't LEGO produce more 21104 Mars Rovers or make them unexclusive to LEGO so that they'd be sold everywhere in vast quantities? It could be just a case of unprecedented demand and 21309 is simply best LEGO set that I've ever seen!

Because it seems great value at £109.99 (it still would've sold out at £169.99), LEGO may not be making as much profit on this so may be limiting production. I bet they wished that they'd priced it higher now.

If I was back in the game, I'd buy only 21309 Saturn Vs and as many as I could - no need to buy any other set. This has tempted be to return, but I'm just so busy now with other things and I no longer have the vast, free, secure storage space.

You did that with loads of other sets and it didn´t work out so you sold them cheap. What has changed? What if it is out for 2 years or more?

For me it´s a winner at 40% off or more.

[LegoMan1212]

3 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

Because it seems great value at £109.99 (it still would've sold out at £169.99), LEGO may not be making as much profit on this so may be limiting production. I bet they wished that they'd priced it higher now.

I've pondered this exact thing about this set.  Part of me believes they knew it would be a Home-run and wanted to try to get it into as many households as possible to build the brand and get more AFOLs involved.  

I can't comment on the Mars Rover as I wasn't in the game back then and have no idea how things went, but of course, it is a good point to consider.

[mizeur]

18 minutes ago, Val-E said:

You did that with loads of other sets and it didn´t work out so you sold them cheap. What has changed? What if it is out for 2 years or more?

For me it´s a winner at 40% off or more.

What's changed is the number of people endlessly speculating about the same set of facts:

-inability to keep the set in stock at launch

-rumors of a limited production run

-LEGO issuing a response to the rumors

-more rumors and LEGO reiterating the response

-the set continuing to go in and out of stock, though seemingly at significantly different rates across markets

-the horde being well aware of this set

All of which results in constant comparisons to big EOL hits on short production runs and sets that have been running a production marathon.

There are really only 2 new facts: when the set's come back in stock in the US it's taken longer to sell out and reseller prices have been in fairly steady decline. Both of which have more implications for whether it's a good idea to keep flipping the set than answering when the last 1 will be available at retail.

 

[Captain_chaos]

I reckon that Destiny's Bounty will outperform this. Equally good value (in the UK anyway), easier to find with substantial discounts, also a very highly rated model, and everyone else is distracted by 21309. 

[Sandwraith]

44 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

I reckon that Destiny's Bounty will outperform this. Equally good value (in the UK anyway), easier to find with substantial discounts, also a very highly rated model, and everyone else is distracted by 21309. 

I'm not sure pirate ships/ships in general ever fly under the radar, i mean one of the seemingly universal rules of Lego investing is that pirate ships and the like "usually" do well. However times are changing, so who knows.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 hour ago, Captain_chaos said:

I reckon that Destiny's Bounty will outperform this. Equally good value (in the UK anyway), easier to find with substantial discounts, also a very highly rated model, and everyone else is distracted by 21309. 

The DB is my 2nd favourite set after the SatV. The UK has priced this very well and I was tempted to go all in again. I’ve remained strong and will only buy to cover all/some of my original cost of the set I’ll keep. It’s a shame that DB ain’t under the radar as most of my mates and their kids also have them!

[nolan808]

Limit 1 in the UK lego shop now (very interesting)

Just a waiting game now for the flood off them to disappear off ebay. Then hopefully if it remains oos we will see a steady increase in value.  

Edited October 5, 2017 by raulaco

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, Captain_chaos said:

I reckon that Destiny's Bounty will outperform this. Equally good value (in the UK anyway), easier to find with substantial discounts, also a very highly rated model, and everyone else is distracted by 21309. 

I´ll bet you a 10 USD donation to the 2020 Brickpicker charity event that DB 3.0 won´t be trading above RRP within a year of selling out at SAH.

Saturn V will depend on how long it is available for. 1.5 years or more and we can forget decent returns. The early adopters have already got theirs and the price is trending down even though it is OOS.

1 hour ago, raulaco said:

Limit 1 in the UK lego shop now (very interesting)

Just a waiting game now for the flood off them to disappear off ebay. Then hopefully if it remains oos we will see a steady increase in value.  

Why it was ever limit 5 is a mystery. This should at least make it slightly harder to hoard.

[Captain_chaos]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

I´ll bet you a 10 USD donation to the 2020 Brickpicker charity event that DB 3.0 won´t be trading above RRP within a year of selling out at SAH.

UK RRP and you're on.

[Val-E]

11 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

UK RRP and you're on.

Fine, UK RRP for Jan 2018 and UK bricklink GBP data set 3 month sold average in months 11,12 and 13 after final SAH availability date as markers.

[cubfan78]

I think for Lego, sets like Saturn V doesn't actually offer much in the way of profit. It’s more about giving back to the Lego community by creating cool sets that are inspired by Lego fans and are not actually attached to any theme. The opportunity to create long-term value for Lego is not there in these sets and not worth the extra production cost to increase the amount available for sale.

This is just an opinion, I am not an investor or speculator, just an AFOL who enjoys building.