Hello from Calgary - New member with a couple of questions

[Tomer]

Hello,

I'm a life-long Lego fan with a decent collection. I stumbled across this website when researching some of my sets, after I had realized that one of them (Holiday Train 10173) was fairly valuable. I have my wife to thank for that one, as she bought it for me for our first Christmas together back in '06.

Now that I've discovered this community I'm starting to think more seriously about Lego as an investment rather than just a toy/hobby. Here is my question:

Considering the long history of Lego, why is it that the "most valuable" sets all seem to be from the 2000's?

What does that indicate for value 10 years from now? Or another way to look at it would be, what were the most valuable sets 10 years ago?

Is there some sort of sweet spot for sets beyond which they start to devalue, or is the reason for the 2000's sets being the most valuable simply that sets from the 80's and 90's just aren't as intricate/desirable?

Ok, I guess that's a bunch of questions but really it's all just 1 question: is there a certain "best before" date by which you should start to consider selling older sets, or will they theoretically only increase in value over time?

Thanks!

[c_rpg]

Hello and welcome.

You're asking two questions, which seem to be linked but the fact that sets from the early 2000's are more valuable is not entirely due to the fact that they are 10+ years old. The situation back then was totally different from what it is now.

I'm sure one of our very experienced members will be able to tell you the exact reasons much better, but basically there's a few key things to consider:

• Lego investing wasn't really done on a large scale back in those days. Sure you had some guys who got in the game early, but overall there were very few people stockpiling sets.
• There was a major dip in the popularity of Lego after 2000. You can read a lot about it online, but basically Lego messed up and they were in deep financial trouble. After that they were very cautious (for a while). The fact that Lego was less popular and they were more cautious, probably means they produced less sets than they do nowadays.

Some people are convinced that the glory days are over and you shouldn't buy sets at all. Look for the bubble thread if you want to see the discussion.

As for your main question: how long should I hold a set? There's different opinions, but generally most people agree on 3-5 years. The benefit of holding long is that as the available aftermarket stock dwindles, prices generally go up if there's enough demand. The major downside of holding long is that you might get a remake. This is especially true for the more popular themes like Star Wars. A new X-Wing is almost guaranteed to come out every 5 or so years.

There are exceptions, where it's best to sell ASAP. For example, something that is very popular and scarce right now. On the other hand some sets might benefit from a 5+ year hold. Typical sets are those that are very unlikely to get a remake anytime soon.

Anyway, there's a bunch of threads about this as well. Search for "long term investment" and "how long to hold".

[lobo1969]

Welcome!

[gregpj]

Welcome Tomer.

Further to what c_rpg said, why are sets like your holiday train so valuable? Supply and demand... Many people want to collect older sets but there are only so many available for sale. The risk of a remake can drive the value lower, or higher depending on the quality of the remake. Usually it'll be lower though since many LEGO lovers will settle for something a little bit less great for a lot less money.

Now that drives into your question about why aren't the older sets from the 80s and 90s as valuable since surely their supply is surely low as well? You're theory about the intricacy, and therefore perceived quality, of the sets is likely spot on... The build quality, instruction quality, piece count and variety has vastly improved since those early days. Also, many of those models have been redone or rehashed or updated or _____ so many times (think city/creator) that the old sets just simply don't hold value because that garbage truck in stock at TRU is nicer than the one from 12 years ago.

However, there are some exceptions (think Space theme) where certain parts are just no longer made (one of my favs from set 1968-1 is http://www.bricklink.com/catalogItemIn.asp?P=4737&in=S) or they hold a certain nostalgic factor for old men who buy kids toys.... Some of those sets that are still in sealed boxes will be valuable, but there just aren't enough on the market or people shopping on a regular basis to really establish a value.

So where we end is up, is that often buyers of retired sets are people who are trying to "complete" a theme. For most sets that will take them into the mid 2000's rather than the 90's or 80's. Themes that go back to the 90s and 80s may be too difficult to truly complete so are not worth the effort or cost.

(or if you're like me, I had kept all my old space LEGO in a separate container and to this day is not mixed with "regular" LEGO :))

[Codes]

Welcome!

Don't forget to come hang out in the Canada subforum.  It's where all the cool kids hang, anyway!

 

[Tomer]

Thanks for all the responses. Lots of food for thought.?