Biggest development in Lego Investing 2016

[ckubrick2]

I have been trying to get info on the lego lawsuit and how its going, but other that generic reports about lego suing there no information with beef, I think I shoul dump everything.  I went to the lego store yesterday trying to return my extra Tower of Orthanc, I could tell the guy knew why.  Of course they did not take it back, it was out of the return period, so I dont blame them, but hidden in the conversation was the fact that we both knew i was fracked.  Now I have nowhere to sell it, ebay has a ton basically at retail, everyone else is buying the clone.  I called my friend yesterday after the lego store, he was interested before but did not have the money so tell him I would give it to him for $190.  Guess what? HE HAS ONE ALREADY...I asked him if it was lego and he said "yeah yeah" so pressed him and he said no, but its the "same thing" and "probably" by the same company, finishing his sentence with "its just like yours", heading there today in the afternoon to look at it....god damn it...

Edited February 11, 2017 by ckubrick2

[Guest TabbyBoy]

You all may want to descrotumise me for saying this but, I saw a mate's bogus bricks Haunted House and I'm gutted to say that there was no colour inconsistency (like LEGO has these days), the bricks fitted just beautifully and actually looked straighter when looking down the line. However, they did smell a little odd, a bit WD40esque? Far, far better than Mega Bloks!

LEGO... It's time to up your game, restore quality to what it was and pull out of China or suffer the consequences. However, it may be too late now as a lot of damage has been done.

[Ed Mack]

22 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

You all may want to descrotumise me for saying this but, I saw a mate's bogus bricks Haunted House and I'm gutted to say that there was no colour inconsistency (like LEGO has these days), the bricks fitted just beautifully and actually looked straighter when looking down the line. However, they did smell a little odd, a bit WD40esque? Far, far better than Mega Bloks!

LEGO... It's time to up your game, restore quality to what it was and pull out of China or suffer the consequences. However, it may be too late now as a lot of damage has been done.

What's a little toxic smell between mates?  Asbestos and lead make those Leper bricks really straight and strong!

[LandAhoy]

for a family buying for young kids would they know the difference or care between lego and a fake but its gonna save the parents a fortune its hard to take the moral high ground for poor or low income families thats where i think the fakes will beat Lego. Not towards adult collectors 

[John82]

Originally i wasn't concerned about bogus bricks, but i was naive, the number of views and positive comments on youtube reviews is extremely concerning. Most comments are suggesting they are happy buying this crap instead of the real thing when it comes down to retired sets, they would rather give the money to copycats instead of reseller scum.

The growth of HH, SSD and ToO (to name just a few) in the EU marketplace seems to back this up.

Now the buyers of these chocolate logs like to send us messages on ebay saying how much money they have saved buying the fakes.

Lets hope 2017 brings the end to this monstrosity, however 2018 will probably see another chinese counterfeiter come to the fort.

[ckubrick2]

People buying multiple huge retired sets to give as gifts because they are so cheap... Buying each of their kids millennium falcons or ISD's...The market is going to get so flooded with these sets that soon people are gonna be giving away sets like the Tower of Orthanc to their friends for free, since you cant really sell them used.  I put my lego ToO on ebay on auction, I don't care how much I get, I just need to get rid of it before it becomes so commonplace that is worthless.  Some people come out of the dark ages, they dont go all lego crazy and limit the number of sets they can own, they buy some sets at retail and then some sets at secondary market at reasonable prices, and then, after a year or two and much debating, buy one or perhaps two excessively priced retired set as the jewel of his lego domain.  That is soo over......the jewel will now be a different brand and no one will know...he also buys small lego sets for nephews and friends, sort of to normalize this new hobby, that is so over too...huge leper sets are gonna light up kids eyes, the end of an era.  As for me I am glad my personal collection is pure Lego, i paid reasonable prices for the work that went into the sets.  However my personal Imperial Flagship was bought at an exorbitant price, it is the only set I had not been comfortable with.  Finally last summer i was finally able to come to terms with how much i paid for it and started enjoying it, even put it on my display, soo captivating and beautiful, a true work of art...but with the news that it was cloned successfully it has become sort of a personal problem for me, I get angry at times for no reason, needless to say I took it down from my display and is now on storage, where it will be for a long while...mind that I have a sealed one that I need to sell asap...

I assume that it is over for the casual reseller like me, only serious resellers that sell to serious lego collectors will maybe survive.  Its just my opinion and i hope it does not happen.  I got some of my best sets from the secondary market, and most of the resellers were very reasonable with their prices (given their storage/cost etc..), and I was gratefull for their work and that I was able to get one because of them. 

I also wonder if clone conventions will soon pop up with massive mocs.  I checked the net, no recent information of the legal case in China, its been a while now...

  

[ckubrick2]

Biggest development:  The Fall of the Imperial Flagship.  Brick-picker guide has them selling new for $743.40.  This is misleading to say the least.  I've had mine in Brick classifieds and ebay for $650 free shipping.  I get offers for about 450 max.  And I had it for $700 free shipping before that, no dice.  Read somewhere in this forum someone got a new one for about $350. These things are falling super fast and I'm sure in a year or two you will find used clones of these on dollar store shelves.  Has the sale of anybody else's big retired set's been affected by these new developments? If so maybe you can shed light on the price fluctuation.  I cannot be the only one. and does anyone have any news on the "alleged" Lego lawsuit???  I think Lego might be pulling someones leg on this...hope everyone is having a great day btw!

On a side note: On Brickpicker buying guide when you input 10210 only Ebay listings appear, not the Brick classified ones, even thou it claims to have listings of both marketplaces.  I have sent two notifications but no action has been taken.  

[BrickLegacy]

22 minutes ago, ckubrick2 said:

Biggest development:  The Fall of the Imperial Flagship.  Brick-picker guide has them selling new for $743.40.  This is misleading to say the least.  I've had mine in Brick classifieds and ebay for $650 free shipping.  I get offers for about 450 max.  And I had it for $700 free shipping before that, no dice.  Read somewhere in this forum someone got a new one for about $350. These things are falling super fast and I'm sure in a year or two you will find used clones of these on dollar store shelves.  Has the sale of anybody else's big retired set's been affected by these new developments? If so maybe you can shed light on the price fluctuation.  I cannot be the only one. and does anyone have any news on the "alleged" Lego lawsuit???  I think Lego might be pulling someones leg on this...hope everyone is having a great day btw!

On a side note: On Brickpicker buying guide when you input 10210 only Ebay listings appear, not the Brick classified ones, even thou it claims to have listings of both marketplaces.  I have sent two notifications but no action has been taken.  

Sets don't climb forever.  This set was on a nice run where it accelerated in growth quickly last year.  It really took off for some reason.  I should have sold one of mine at that point.  Chances are other sellers noticed this and began to list theirs, driving the price down further for those that wanted to sell quickly.  It happens.

Edit: looks like the going rate is $650 on eBay.  Definitely a drop from last year.

All that being said, I agree that the fakes are hurting these types of sets.  If you watch American Pickers, Mike and Frank talk about this all the time :-) Man I love those guys ...

Anyways, the pure collector will want an original but as long as there are fakes, it will drive the price down.  As the supply of authentic sets shrinks, the price will slowly climb back up.

 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I forgot who, but whoever meantioned the word "parabola" on here a few weeks ago seems to be correct as the quicker that values rise, the quicker they fall. We only need two things to disappear before things pick up again, QFLLs and Bogus Booger Bricks.

PS. Don't forget to sell your Ecto1 at the peak, no later ;-)

[ckubrick2]

1 hour ago, BrickLegacy said:

 

Anyways, the pure collector will want an original but as long as there are fakes, it will drive the price down.  As the supply of authentic sets shrinks, the price will slowly climb back up.

 

I agree with this statement, my way of thinking was either I sell now or wait a few more years...I have made money, good money, on a bunch of sets two years ago when I was more actively selling, but this one has has been more elusive, maybe I was trying to sell too expensive.  The fact is all through October 2015-summer 2016 I was getting regular offers for average of $700, maybe even $750 if I recall correctly, but I wanted to hold it at least until summer 2017 or even Christmas 2017 see what that would do to the price.  For sure I though this Christmas 2016 would at least bring some tempting offers, Im not sure but around late summer last year offers where lower and slowing down until Christmas came and there was not even one offer, lol...I did not freak out because I was still in a holding pattern, but I though it was VERY peculiar.  Had heard of cloning as cheap and very low quality years ago, never I though this ship could be cloned.  Also I had been absent from Lego selling and Lego world for about a 8 months and my Imperial Flagship was my only listing during that time. Fast forward to January as I am shopping for the Medieval Winter Village when scouring reviews and comments I came into contact with the lepers...and my eyes where finally opened at what the hell was going on in the past few months.  Needless to say I freak out...Aniways I still bought the Lego MMV and waiting to assemble.  But this experience made me scour forums for this new development and now I know things have changed drastically and I believe will get worse when people start shedding their used leppers, since there are going to sell free shipping from the US, not china, for about $20, probably buy 2 get 1 free.  Dont want to sound like the prophet of doom but...well its just an opinion.    And yes  and I am happy to inform that I was able to sell my spare and new/sealed Imperial Flagship for $650 on eBay today, just a few min ago.  There were two sold yesterday for $615 and $653 respectively, if I recall correctly.  Did not make a killing or anything but at least dont have to hold for more years and more uncertainty.  

Edited February 15, 2017 by ckubrick2

[Phil B]

Many people were lured into LEGO investing the last 2 years because the message out there ("LEGO is better than gold" etc.) falsely told them that you can just buy a LEGO set, stick it in a closet, and pull it out to sell for great profits. This is not (or no longer) true. Every set has its own rise and fall patterns, and some don't even rise. One really needs to actively read the market to find out when to sell. You said it yourself:

10 minutes ago, ckubrick2 said:

but I wanted to hold it at least until summer 2017 or even Christmas 2017 see what that would do to the price.

You gambled and it didn't work out as you planned. Still, you were able to sell for $650 so you came out with a profit, even if it wasn't $50-$75 higher which you would have had if you sold 1-1.5 years ago.

This is one reason why I have already sold both my 41178 Elves Dragon Sanctuaries on EBay. Everyone is currently scrambling to get one of these, as they disappeared so fast, but I don't think it'll be an evergreen continuous riser. Of course I might be wrong, but I made 150% and 175% ROI after shipping and fees, so I'm happy to let go of them now.

Edited February 15, 2017 by Phil B

[ckubrick2]

1 minute ago, Phil B said:

Many people were lured into LEGO investing the last 2 years because the message out there ("LEGO is better than gold" etc.) falsely told them that you can just buy a LEGO set, stick it in a closet, and pull it out to sell for great profits. This is not (or no longer) true. Every set has its own rise and fall patterns, and some don't even rise. You really need to actively read the market to find out when to sell.

So true.  I am one of them. Feels like an army arose 2 years ago just to re-sell legos lol...

 

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

You gambled and it didn't work out as you planned. Still, you were able to sell for $650 so you came out with a profit, even if it wasn't $50-$75 higher which you would have had if you sold 1-1.5 years ago.

 

Yes, I feel relieved.  

[Guest TabbyBoy]

7 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Many people were lured into LEGO investing the last 2 years because the message out there ("LEGO is better than gold" etc.) falsely told them that you can just buy a LEGO set, stick it in a closet, and pull it out to sell for great profits. This is not (or no longer) true. Every set has its own rise and fall patterns, and some don't even rise. One really needs to actively read the market to find out when to sell. You said it yourself:

You gambled and it didn't work out as you planned. Still, you were able to sell for $650 so you came out with a profit, even if it wasn't $50-$75 higher which you would have had if you sold 1-1.5 years ago.

This is one reason why I have already sold both my 41178 Elves Dragon Sanctuaries on EBay. Everyone is currently scrambling to get one of these, as they disappeared so fast, but I don't think it'll be an evergreen continuous riser. Of course I might be wrong, but I made 150% and 175% ROI after shipping and fees, so I'm happy to let go of them now.

Good call with the 41178, 150/175% ROI is fantastic, no point being greedy and risking it all ;-)

That's the problem with a lot of sellers... greed! I'm happy to sell when I know there's a good margin to be had. If I miss the peak, I simply move on to something else.

If you are wrong, you still made a superb profit and should be proud of yourself.

[asharerin]

Hands down the biggest game changer for our Lego business model in 2016 was the Amazon gating of the Lego brand in the USA. Introduced a whole new upside but at the cost of  increased risk of getting booted off the platform. Early indications for the sets we picked are excellent prices and Amazon is keeping the buy box which means a huge boost in sales and continued price increases. The litmus test for us was Pet Shop on Amazon and it is already $239 FBA after a few months (well past my highest projections for an entire year).

Second biggest game changer was TLG allowing exclusive discounts in the USA again. This allowed super cheap buy ins for the exclusives and the days of buying in advance and storing those extra years are behind us. These discounts are also a huge heads up to what is retiring and what is staying. Amazon, Target and Walmart blew out all the retiring sets and left prices of the remaining at RRP so it was super easy to load up on the good stuff (and leave the non-retiring stuff behind such as Simpsons which was talked about retiring quite alot on this board).

Third development was the massive overproduction from TLG which meant a ton of good sets at 50% off easily available at alot of local retail chains. I hadn't purchased Lego at a retail store in a long, long time but when Star Wars was 50% off at Fred Meyer we hit all the local stores and nabbed alot of great sets at excellent prices. These are already performing extremely well on Amazon so it really feels like the days of old again for our Lego business. Previosuly I could never compete with resellers find walmart clearance but 2016 was easy. Hopefully 2017 holds more of the same at the local level.

Fourth development was Amazon bringing back higher purchase limits for sets in the USA. Used to be limit 2 but now we are at 7 for alot of exclusives. Haven't taken advantage of it yet but will probably do so this Fall. This will allow for better scrambling at the end rather than having to buy further in advance and hold for longer periods.

Lots of positives. Not many negatives. A good year and lets hope 2017 continues the trend.

 

 

[Brickbuilder.g]

Hands down the biggest game changer for our Lego business model in 2016 was the Amazon gating of the Lego brand in the USA. Introduced a whole new upside but at the cost of  increased risk of getting booted off the platform. Early indications for the sets we picked are excellent prices and Amazon is keeping the buy box which means a huge boost in sales and continued price increases. The litmus test for us was Pet Shop on Amazon and it is already $239 FBA after a few months (well past my highest projections for an entire year).
Second biggest game changer was TLG allowing exclusive discounts in the USA again. This allowed super cheap buy ins for the exclusives and the days of buying in advance and storing those extra years are behind us. These discounts are also a huge heads up to what is retiring and what is staying. Amazon, Target and Walmart blew out all the retiring sets and left prices of the remaining at RRP so it was super easy to load up on the good stuff (and leave the non-retiring stuff behind such as Simpsons which was talked about retiring quite alot on this board).
Third development was the massive overproduction from TLG which meant a ton of good sets at 50% off easily available at alot of local retail chains. I hadn't purchased Lego at a retail store in a long, long time but when Star Wars was 50% off at Fred Meyer we hit all the local stores and nabbed alot of great sets at excellent prices. These are already performing extremely well on Amazon so it really feels like the days of old again for our Lego business. Previosuly I could never compete with resellers find walmart clearance but 2016 was easy. Hopefully 2017 holds more of the same at the local level.
Fourth development was Amazon bringing back higher purchase limits for sets in the USA. Used to be limit 2 but now we are at 7 for alot of exclusives. Haven't taken advantage of it yet but will probably do so this Fall. This will allow for better scrambling at the end rather than having to buy further in advance and hold for longer periods.
Lots of positives. Not many negatives. A good year and lets hope 2017 continues the trend.
 
 

No positivity allowed.

[gregpj]

2 hours ago, Phil B said:

Many people were lured into LEGO investing the last 2 years because the message out there ("LEGO is better than gold" etc.) falsely told them that you can just buy a LEGO set, stick it in a closet, and pull it out to sell for great profits. This is not (or no longer) true. Every set has its own rise and fall patterns, and some don't even rise. One really needs to actively read the market to find out when to sell.

I'm just going to get asharerin to sell all my sets FBA for an easy 100% ROI after all fees.

[BrickLegacy]

59 minutes ago, Brickbuilder.g said:

No positivity allowed.

[Pet-Brick-er]

On 15 febbraio 2017 at 5:41 PM, Phil B said:

This is one reason why I have already sold both my 41178 Elves Dragon Sanctuaries on EBay. Everyone is currently scrambling to get one of these, as they disappeared so fast, but I don't think it'll be an evergreen continuous riser. Of course I might be wrong, but I made 150% and 175% ROI after shipping and fees, so I'm happy to let go of them now.

It will be an ever green riser at least for 2017 I think

so far LEGO has done 7 dragons in this theme, 5 during 2016, 2 in 2017:

41179, 41176 retired, 41178 retired, 41187 not yet released, 41175, 41172, 41183

who starts to collect them in 2017 will need 41178 for 41176 you can still find below RRP on ebay europe

 

but LEGO has also done 5 Dragon eggs:

41180, 41178 retired, 41174 retired, 41177 retired, 41171 retired

the only one which has both dragon and Dragon egg is 41178... but moreover it is the one you have to have if you want to display you Dragon eggs collection

and it has been sold for only 4 months...