Biggest development in Lego Investing 2016

[Ed Mack]

2 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

Teaching kids takes 365 days a year...

I'm not disagreeing with you about the importance of money management.  But reality is most adults have poor money managements skills, so how can they teach their kids any?

[Frank Brickowski]

10 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I'm not disagreeing with you about the importance of money management.  But reality is most adults have poor money managements skills, so how can they teach their kids any?

Good to know that we can agree that not the kids are the problem, but their parents - passing it down to the next generation each time until the kids become parents themselves who then again are the problem... Some things just will never change.

[Val-E]

Interesting article from Brickset.

Their exponential growth in site traffic slowed in the second half of this year and they say this is true for other Lego related sites, especially this one!

Perhaps Lego fatigue is indeed setting in.

http://brickset.com/article/25274

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by Val-E

[Ciglione]

7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Interesting article from Brickset.

Their exponential growth in site traffic slowed in the second half of this year and they say this is true for other Lego related sites, especially this one!

Perhaps Lego fatigue is indeed setting in.

http://brickset.com/article/25274

 

I guess Tesco had a big growth of site visitors this year.

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

I guess Tesco had a big growth of site visitors this year.

Ali express too.

[megahuts]

Maybe I'm in a bubble (No not that bubble) the one Jake Gyllenhaal was in. We seem to ALL agree that Lepin is garbage, crap, who would want...etc. however, the other day thanks to FBs marketing some sponsored thing popped up on my feed. Was that MF coffee table.

So I click on the comments to see what people were talking about (1,000s of comments) and most were about "why pay 5,000 for that set when you can get it here (insert Lepin related site) tons of people posting pics of their "collection of Lepin" I was shocked of the 1,000s of people being ok with it.

I am starting to think Lepin is a bigger threat than I (and most on here) imagined. Hopefully they can really shut them down soon.

I have kept an eye on the sales on AliExpress. There were ~20k orders for the Elsa Ice Castle Lego set. And those were just the top two sellers of that set. You cant tell me that doesn't hurt Lego immensely and by extension us. Remember, those are just the AliExpress sales, I would expect eBay to be much higher.

And having built a couple Lepin sets, while I agree they are not perfect like Lego, sadly they are a very, very close substitute. As in they are better in brick consistency and grip than Megabloks IMHO.

[Val-E]

The thing is there are now 3 companies producing "almost similar but not quite as good and maybe some missing parts" copies. If Lego don´t win the courtcase they´ll have to consider what counter measures they can take within their own hands e.g. reducing their own RRP for current models or re releasing retired exclusives. I can´t see anything good coming from it either way. If they lose the case then the floodgates will open.

[Rimmit]

It's been a while since I've posted as life has gotten busy, however, this year has definitely been an eye opener for someone like me jumping back in the game after being out of it 9 years.

I think the Death Star remake definitely had the biggest impact, completely sucking the wind out of many reseller's sails.  The idea that you could potentially buy a set at a premium only to have it rereleased in a couple months to a year was completely and totally devastating to me as a collector and reseller.  I have stopped buying sets at post market prices because of this, and I am betting many other collector's have as well.

Tied for second would be the clones and just market saturation/lego fatigue.  As someone who recently was buying sets at post market prices, I have since noticed that the sets I was buying from Jan. - May of this year have now since dropped in price.  For example, I was watching the SSD like a hawk looking for a decent deal on it early this year.  I felt LUCKY to buy one brand new in box for $800 dollars, and that was stalking eBay's Buy It Now Newly Listed listings.  Now it is extremely easy to buy one at $800 an can be found for less.  A set selling at $1,000 is difficult to move, whereas before it was standard.  This is one example of either the clone effect or the Death Star Remake, or saturation.  It's hard to say, but the bottom line is the set has decreased 20% in price since the beginning of the year and most of this drop has been since the release of the clone SSD.  Whether coincidence or not, it is a real drop with timing that coincides with the lepin releases of SSD, DSII, 10179, etc.  This is quite concerning for a flagship level set such as the SSD.

2017 will definitely be interesting from an investment perspective.  In 2016 the market has changed more than ever before, and 2017 could be even rockier. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by Rimmit

[labfreak7]

An interesting thought experiment.  It all comes down to opinion, and I definitely recommend reading the bubble thread for opinions.  I don't think the clones do/are going to make a huge dent.  You clearly do.  Agree to disagree.

I think clones will steal away profits from Lego and the secondary market. It may not be on a large scale, but it is enough to suppress growth. I know plenty of people who don't know the difference between Lego and knockoffs.

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

I think clones will steal away profits from Lego and the secondary market. It may not be on a large scale, but it is enough to suppress growth. I know plenty of people who don't know the difference between Lego and knockoffs.

Are any of them Chinese judges?

[Guest TabbyBoy]

6 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Are any of them Chinese judges?

 

[Val-E]

[megahuts]

It's been a while since I've posted as life has gotten busy, however, this year has definitely been an eye opener for someone like me jumping back in the game after being out of it 9 years.
I think the Death Star remake definitely had the biggest impact, completely sucking the wind out of many reseller's sails.  The idea that you could potentially buy a set at a premium only to have it rereleased in a couple months to a year was completely and totally devastating to me as a collector and reseller.  I have stopped buying sets at post market prices because of this, and I am betting many other collector's have as well.
Tied for second would be the clones and just market saturation/lego fatigue.  As someone who recently was buying sets at post market prices, I have since noticed that the sets I was buying from Jan. - May of this year have now since dropped in price.  For example, I was watching the SSD like a hawk looking for a decent deal on it early this year.  I felt LUCKY to buy one brand new in box for $800 dollars, and that was stalking eBay's Buy It Now Newly Listed listings.  Now it is extremely easy to buy one at $800 an can be found for less.  A set selling at $1,000 is difficult to move, whereas before it was standard.  This is one example of either the clone effect or the Death Star Remake, or saturation.  It's hard to say, but the bottom line is the set has decreased 20% in price since the beginning of the year.  This is quite concerning for a flagship level set such as the SSD.
2017 will definitely be interesting from an investment perspective.  In 2016 the market has changed more than ever before, and 2017 could be even rockier. 

That is definitely the clones, without question. If you had a tool worth $1k sitting on the shelf collecting dust, and you could replace said tool, nearly identical in every way, for $100, would you do it? Why not sell the old tool for $1k, but the new tool for $100, and pocket the $900?

Or even better, buy 9 more tools at $100 each that you always wanted, but never had $9k to spend on them. So now you have 10 tools, nearly identical in every way to the name brand, perfectly functional, instead of just one...

So yes, the clones increased supply as per the example above and decreased demand as previously mentioned.

In fact, look at the Amazon pre-Christmas sales. 40% off plus BOGO before the kids have even had a chance to open the gifts? How many parents do you think are asking for price matches/returns and rebuys?

Lego retail prices are headed down. People will now just wait for a sale.

[steelmelt]

I selected the Death Star as the most relevant issue.  This and a few other remakes is awful.  

Now giving this a little more thought, I think the actual quality of sets being released is the biggest issue for me, which would include the reissue problems.  Look at some of the crappy sets.  JP is just Dino with new colors.  Assembly square is a bore.  Star wars Hoth sucks. City sets just rehash new color schemes and stickers (Volcano= Ice Explorers) .  Even small stuff like the ladder being backwards on the fire truck is annoying.  The ferry doesn't float?  The Gas station is no where near as good as the one I had growing up.  The list goes on and on.  The sets are less pieces, lower quality, cost more, and are poorly designed.  

Architecture might be the only theme improving.  

I bought my kid a Playmobile set over a Duplo set of the same thing this year for Xmas.  It was cheaper, easier to find, and looks neater.

Edited December 15, 2016 by steelmelt

[Val-E]

Pity I picked the wrong week to make the poll. Just afterwards they slapped retiring soon labels on 300 sets and that could have been an option too.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Val-E

[Guest TabbyBoy]

6 minutes ago, steelmelt said:

Architecture might be the only theme improving.  

My thoughts exactly which is why I went in big just before 21006, 21020 & 21022 bit the dust.

[waddamon]

5 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I'm not disagreeing with you about the importance of money management.  But reality is most adults have poor money managements skills, so how can they teach their kids any?

This fact keeps my business running full steam ahead.

[Dkc]

Obviously there are differing opinions, but to me, the knockoffs are the biggest threat to Lego investing than anything else.  It is the reason that I've stopped buying Lego as an investment this year.  For those who believe that knockoffs don't affect Lego investing much, you are looking through the lens of an AFOL with the money and the willingness to buy Lego at a premium price.  AFOL is still a small group compared to the kids who drive the Lego demand.

[Val-E]

I´m coming round to knock-offs being the biggest negative development.

Not just for the short term sales they take away but for the long term damage if other sales platforms than Amazon start to ban lego resellers. That would be a real problem for those with no grandfathers or gates.

[Damnation666]

2 hours ago, Dkc said:

Obviously there are differing opinions, but to me, the knockoffs are the biggest threat to Lego investing than anything else.  It is the reason that I've stopped buying Lego as an investment this year.  For those who believe that knockoffs don't affect Lego investing much, you are looking through the lens of an AFOL with the money and the willingness to buy Lego at a premium price.  AFOL is still a small group compared to the kids who drive the Lego demand.

Yes, the eventual contamination of LEGO bulk sales will hurt people who part out sets. On a positive note, I am happy to see major discounts again.

[donbee]

Obviously there are differing opinions, but to me, the knockoffs are the biggest threat to Lego investing than anything else.  It is the reason that I've stopped buying Lego as an investment this year.  For those who believe that knockoffs don't affect Lego investing much, you are looking through the lens of an AFOL with the money and the willingness to buy Lego at a premium price.  AFOL is still a small group compared to the kids who drive the Lego demand.

I think knock offs wouldn't be that great a threat, if Lego's quality wasn't going down as well. It's not just the lack of creativity and over abundance of sets, though they are big factors, but the pieces are starting to suck. They're getting sloppier. I especially hate going into an expensive restaurant and getting an over cooked steak. If I'm paying that much for it, get it right. But if I go to McDonald's drive thru and my fries are cold, That sucks, but I'm not turning around to get back in line.

But at the end of the day, clones hurt the QFLL more than the smart investor. The guy who wants to throw down money for a Star Destroyer coffee table, will get Lego for sure. The kid who wants IR break out, may find a slightly different, but comparable gift under his tree.

What's going to hurt the long term market for some awesome sets is not clones, but the quantity available and the number of resellers.

[junkrigger]

Rant but I don't even care anymore.

[ckubrick2]

Any new opinions on how bogus bricks is killing the secondary market?  From what i read on the net, thousands of more people now know, buying huge sets for pennies.  I bought 2 Imperial Flagships a year before bogus bricks release, one for me and one to sell...im sorry but I feel ripped open by ebay and now its very hard to sell because everyone is buying the bogus bricks one.   Argh...

[Guest TabbyBoy]

39 minutes ago, ckubrick2 said:

Any new opinions on how bogus bricks is killing the secondary market?  From what i read on the net, thousands of more people now know, buying huge sets for pennies.  I bought 2 Imperial Flagships a year before bogus bricks release, one for me and one to sell...im sorry but I feel ripped open by ebay and now its very hard to sell because everyone is buying the bogus bricks one.   Argh...

Booger Bricks is killing the Star Wars UCS market and eBay don't give an excrement as long as they get their greedy paws on those fees! LEGO seem powerless to stop eBay and Amazon is now selling BELA (Scooby Doo knock-offs). It was a BIG mistake when LEGO opened up in China. I would NEVER allow a premium product of mine with valuable IP to be made in that corrupt country.

eBay should also be prosecuted by the international courts for promoting the sale of counterfeit items but, nobody is brave enough to bring those greedy bastards to court. They are no better than Alibaba IMHO. They are now allowing illegal installations of MS Office 2016 software to be sold for £10 (RRP £230). I had a long chat with Microsoft yesterday and they are going to crack down HARD on one nasty seller that I grassed up earlier.

I blame eBay for current LEGO negativity!

DEATH to eBay !!!

[gregpj]

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

Booger Bricks is killing the Star Wars UCS market and eBay don't give an excrement as long as they get their greedy paws on those fees! LEGO seem powerless to stop eBay and Amazon is now selling BELA (Scooby Doo knock-offs). It was a BIG mistake when LEGO opened up in China. I would NEVER allow a premium product of mine with valuable IP to be made in that corrupt country.

eBay should also be prosecuted by the international courts for promoting the sale of counterfeit items but, nobody is brave enough to bring those greedy bastards to court. They are no better than Alibaba IMHO. They are now allowing illegal installations of MS Office 2016 software to be sold for £10 (RRP £230). I had a long chat with Microsoft yesterday and they are going to crack down HARD on one nasty seller that I grassed up earlier.

I blame eBay for current LEGO negativity!

DEATH to eBay !!!

(let's see if the mop surfaces again)