Biggest development in Lego Investing 2016

[newbiecollect]

I remember when I was collecting sports card as a little kids in the early 90s then topps and upper deck decided to get greedy and started growing their sets exponentially. They lost me among that wave. I think this has a little bit of that as well though the starting point is definitely higher in terms of number.

[ZULU]

On 29 oktober 2016 at 3:49 PM, Ciglione said:

Yeah... but Tabby is already cornering the market in the UK.

Weak pound has triggered mu first investments this year...

[Voltron]

How many people are waiting to see how the 2016 retired sets perform until they start buying for investment again?

If we look at sets that should have done well if retired say in 2014 i.e. Ecto 1, Pet Shop, Sandcrawler, Ewok Village etc. Are you lot looking for a specific % above RRP that you expect the sets to hit? 

Or even if they hit a specific % after 6-12 months would that still not change your mind?

Thoughts?

[Ciglione]

12 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

How many people are waiting to see how the 2016 retired sets perform until they start buying for investment again?

If we look at sets that should have done well if retired say in 2014 i.e. Ecto 1, Pet Shop, Sandcrawler, Ewok Village etc. Are you lot looking for a specific % above RRP that you expect the sets to hit? 

Or even if they hit a specific % after 6-12 months would that still not change your mind?

Thoughts?

You do not need to see how the 2016 sets will perform. Just look at the 2015 ones. They are not to write home about. I expect from here it will go further downhill. Competition is fierce. And there is alot of them.

I expect from here it will go further downhill. Until a status quo has reached. More and more people will jump ship. And the influx of new investors will cool down or freeze.

[Fenix_2k1]

I do my projections based on 50% over rrp. Anything over that is a bonus.

I'm certainly hedging my bets this eol period. Most sets i have just 3 of.

I've decided to leave Pet Shop alone to assess whether modulars are worth investing in, in the future.

I think growth will be slow overall. i think there's less Lego investors now than this time last year so some retiring sets might still take some time to clear from shelves. especially when done retailers are in no rush to clearance old stock.

It will be a very telling year for future strategies.  

[megahuts]

I am surprised no one explicitly mentioned the 'good' clone Lego. This will impact much more than just the value of retired sets, it will likely change how Lego issues sets.

Think about it, Lego cycles through the various ships / vehicles to stimulate demand for when the product becomes available (much like Disney and their rotation of movie availability on DVD). If there is a third party that is keeping all of your old sets available, and making good money selling them, why retire sets anyways? You are no longer able to build up demand!

(I mean, look at the Hoth set, why would they have brought out that UCS the year after the AT-AT retired... to stimulate demand for the next AT-AT coming out in ~2018. However, now instead of stimulating demand for future Lego sets, all they are doing is stimulating demand for the cloners...)

[Sfcommando14]

13 hours ago, megahuts said:

(I mean, look at the Hoth set, why would they have brought out that UCS the year after the AT-AT retired... to stimulate demand for the next AT-AT coming out in ~2018. However, now instead of stimulating demand for future Lego sets, all they are doing is stimulating demand for the cloners...)

The people selling 75054s for $300 disagree with that assessment.

[megahuts]

The people selling 75054s for $300 disagree with that assessment.

Clone brand 75054 is not available right now (presale). Wait until it comes out, then we will know if I am right or wrong.

And I am speaking from experience, my son asked for an AT-AT for Christmas. He isn't getting one at $300. He is getting the micro fighter AT-AT. But if it had been available...

[jonnyhanukkah]

There's a good Lego clone?? Is Lepin considered good quality or is it a different company?

[Sfcommando14]

5 minutes ago, megahuts said:

Clone brand 75054 is not available right now (presale). Wait until it comes out, then we will know if I am right or wrong.

And I am speaking from experience, my son asked for an AT-AT for Christmas. He isn't getting one at $300.

 

 

Plenty of discussion of this on the bubble thread.  I am of the opinion that there are plenty of people like you, who have no effect on the price.  You wouldn't buy one at $300, so your purchase of an ILLEGAL copy is irrelevant to the market for sealed 75054s.  (IMO) Mostly collectors buy NIB sets at 2.5x RRP, and they don't want potentially toxic plastic junk, so they will still pay the premium.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Sfcommando14

[megahuts]

Plenty of discussion of this on the bubble thread.  I am of the opinion that there are plenty of people like you, who have no effect on the price.  You wouldn't buy one at $300, so your purchase of an ILLEGAL copy is irrelevant to the market for sealed 75054s.  (IMO) Mostly collectors buy NIB sets at 2.5x RRP, and they don't want potentially toxic plastic junk, so they will still pay the premium.

Yes, that is likely true for collectors. However, collectors are by far a very small part of the overall Lego market. And I agree I have no effect on the price of 75054.

However, my point is about the future of Lego sets.

Let's look at the example below without a cloner.

Child wants AT-AT. Parent decides $300 is too much. Child doesn't get gift.
Next Christmas / birthday, child asks for the same gift. $300 is too much.
Next Christmas /birthday child asks for the same gift. $300 is too much.

Lego brings out AT-AT as a new set.

Next Christmas / Birthday child asks for same gift. Parent sees AT-AT at $150 and decides to buy since it is such a good deal compared to $300.

Now let's look at the same situation with a cloner:

Child wants AT-AT. Parent discovers sets for $300 and "compatible" set with the same artwork for $50. Parent buys the $50 set (either Amazon, eBay, or Ali).

A year later Lego brings out an AT-AT set at $150. No one rushes out to buy the set as, and this is the critical part, there is no pent-up demand. Set ends up being a "shelf warmer", so retailers decrease future orders from Lego...

[Sfcommando14]

8 minutes ago, megahuts said:

A year later Lego brings out an AT-AT set at $150. No one rushes out to buy the set as, and this is the critical part, there is no pent-up demand. Set ends up being a "shelf warmer", so retailers decrease future orders from Lego...

 

 

An interesting thought experiment.  It all comes down to opinion, and I definitely recommend reading the bubble thread for opinions.  I don't think the clones do/are going to make a huge dent.  You clearly do.  Agree to disagree.

[Deano1980]

I think you are also forgetting that these days every parent is in competition with there friends on Facebook showing off what they have bought the bin lids . A big lepin box or worse few manky bags of plastic won't be a patch on a nice shiny lego logo .

[megahuts]

I think you are also forgetting that these days every parent is in competition with there friends on Facebook showing off what they have bought the bin lids . A big lepin box or worse few manky bags of plastic won't be a patch on a nice shiny lego logo .

And that's why you only show the completed model!

[botchy123]

[Ed Mack]

Smart kids know the difference between clone crap and legit LEGO. Sure, some parents/grandparents don't care and will try to pawn off the trash, but when the kids see the fake box, parts and instructions, the parents will be sorry they made that choice.  Most kids who play with LEGO on a consistent basis are hard to fool and are above average in intelligence.  They want the real deal...

[keith1833]

2 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Smart kids know the difference between clone crap and legit LEGO. Sure, some parents/grandparents don't care and will try to pawn off the trash, but when the kids see the fake box, parts and instructions, the parents will be sorry they made that choice.  Most kids who play with LEGO on a consistent basis are hard to fool and are above average in intelligence.  They want the real deal...

I can agree to the kids knowing the difference.  My wife tried to buy some other brick toy that was in the toy aisle at Target a couple of weeks ago and our 4 yo daughter told her it's not LEGO.

[Frank Brickowski]

29 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Smart kids know the difference between clone crap and legit LEGO. Sure, some parents/grandparents don't care and will try to pawn off the trash, but when the kids see the fake box, parts and instructions, the parents will be sorry they made that choice.  Most kids who play with LEGO on a consistent basis are hard to fool and are above average in intelligence.  They want the real deal...

While that might be true for smart kids, the smartest kids also know the difference between having money and not having money to afford something. With this statement I do NOT intend to support Lepin but to promote the idea that you should never buy something you cannot afford with the money you have at hand. If you cannot afford original LEGO sets, (learn to) accept the fact. That is one of the most important things parents should teach their kids. Imo even more important than knowing the difference between "legit" and "clone".

[Guest TabbyBoy]

[Lego Templar]

Maybe I'm in a bubble (No not that bubble) the one Jake Gyllenhaal was in. We seem to ALL agree that Lepin is garbage, crap, who would want...etc. however, the other day thanks to FBs marketing some sponsored thing popped up on my feed. Was that MF coffee table.

So I click on the comments to see what people were talking about (1,000s of comments) and most were about "why pay 5,000 for that set when you can get it here (insert Lepin related site) tons of people posting pics of their "collection of Lepin" I was shocked of the 1,000s of people being ok with it.

I am starting to think Lepin is a bigger threat than I (and most on here) imagined. Hopefully they can really shut them down soon.

[Ed Mack]

25 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

While that might be true for smart kids, the smartest kids also know the difference between having money and not having money to afford something. With this statement I do NOT intend to support Lepin but to promote the idea that you should never buy something you cannot afford with the money you have at hand. If you cannot afford original LEGO sets, (learn to) accept the fact. That is one of the most important things parents should teach their kids. Imo even more important than knowing the difference between "legit" and "clone".

Tell that to a kid on Christmas Day...

[KShine]

7 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

While that might be true for smart kids, the smartest kids also know the difference between having money and not having money to afford something. With this statement I do NOT intend to support Lepin but to promote the idea that you should never buy something you cannot afford with the money you have at hand. If you cannot afford original LEGO sets, (learn to) accept the fact. That is one of the most important things parents should teach their kids. Imo even more important than knowing the difference between "legit" and "clone".

Such thoughts would only lead to the quick collapse of our nation.

But have no fear - Our culture will never allow our children (or most of their parents) to accept such reasoning.

[Ed Mack]

16 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Good looking guy...

[Frank Brickowski]

14 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Tell that to a kid on Christmas Day...

Teaching kids takes 365 days a year...

Edited December 15, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[Frank Brickowski]

13 minutes ago, KShine said:

Such thoughts would only lead to the quick collapse of our nation.

But have no fear - Our culture will never allow our children (or most of their parents) to accept such reasoning.

That is also true. No capitalist economy would work without a great amount of people spending more money than they have/should. If there were only reasonable people consuming within a national economy that country would indeed collapse.