I'm pretty new at this and I'm trying to understand, why have certain current sets decreased in value over the past year? And is this indicative of their future, post-retirement performance? I know they're not going to increase while they're still available, but some of them seem to have dropped quite a bit.

E.g. http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=75094-1 

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=75102-1

Too many cooks.

This is a reflection of various sales and clearances that occur, mostly in the States, and the quick flippers racing to the lowest possible margins, making pennies at the end of it. These values do not directly indicate post retirement performance, but certainly some insight can be gleaned from watching the trends.. how long it was available at these low prices etc. This can give you some good insight into what the average buy-in cost might look like, and you can be certain some of your competitors got in at that price or lower. You can then factor all that into your own investment strategy to mitigate risks.

There have been some very solid sales on those example sets in the recent months. None of them were available up here. 

Edit: Disclaimer, I've only been at this for a year. These are my observations, but I'm sure some of the more experienced sellers here will agree and perhaps be able to elaborate further. 

Edited August 9, 20169 yr by Zelgazra

5 minutes ago, aladar said:

I'm pretty new at this and I'm trying to understand, why have certain current sets decreased in value over the past year? And is this indicative of their future, post-retirement performance? I know they're not going to increase while they're still available, but some of them seem to have dropped quite a bit.

E.g. http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=75094-1 

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=75102-1

Brickpicker's database is an average of the recent sold prices for a set on eBay. It is very common for a set to have a value less than RRP while it is still in production, as sellers are often purchasing,and then reselling the sets for a discount on eBay. 75094 for example was picked up by many resellers for $49 over the past year. Many are happy to turn around and sell the same set for $10 profit a month later. Other sellers simply drop ship sets and charge just slightly more than average retail price.

That makes sense, thanks guys. So would sets that go on sale often, at deep discounts, be potentially less valuable in the long run? Since they don't attract enough buyers at their RRP, and since investors would stock up them while they're on sale.

Some of the discounts I have seen really make no sense. I have seen some high selling sets go on steep discount. I think some of it has to do with what the corporate wants in the stores. From what I understand stores like Walmart and Barnes and noble (where I found 50-75% off) had a corporate wide discount or reset of shelves.

others you are probably right, if it does not sell, discount it. Or like toys r us by me, keep old Chima on shelves a year after retirement at full retail price and collect dust.

12 minutes ago, aladar said:

That makes sense, thanks guys. So would sets that go on sale often, at deep discounts, be potentially less valuable in the long run? Since they don't attract enough buyers at their RRP, and since investors would stock up them while they're on sale.

It depends. Continuous discounts can indicate an over supply or lack of interest in the set. Some sets will struggle to get back to RRP, others will grow above it despite being discounted.

20 minutes ago, aladar said:

That makes sense, thanks guys. So would sets that go on sale often, at deep discounts, be potentially less valuable in the long run? Since they don't attract enough buyers at their RRP, and since investors would stock up them while they're on sale.

That's where your research, market watching, and gut instinct come in to play. There are some buyers on here that won't even think about touching a set for investment unless they can buy at a minimum 30% discount, and often aim for 40-50% as a buy-in price. It's a select group of sets that are worth buying at full RRP for investment.

It's sometimes difficult to tell why a retailer discounts or clearances a particular set. Some are duds, some are studs. The challenging part is making that guess before a set retires. Most Star Wars sets are a safe buy when they go on clearance sale. The other themes are hit or miss.

That makes sense, thanks guys. So would sets that go on sale often, at deep discounts, be potentially less valuable in the long run? Since they don't attract enough buyers at their RRP, and since investors would stock up them while they're on sale.

21103 Delorean was constantly 20% off for months on end.

Lesson: NEVER pay retail...

That's where your research, market watching, and gut instinct come in to play. There are some buyers on here that won't even think about touching a set for investment unless they can buy at a minimum 30% discount, and often aim for 40-50% as a buy-in price. It's a select group of sets that are worth buying at full RRP for investment.

It's sometimes difficult to tell why a retailer discounts or clearances a particular set. Some are duds, some are studs. The challenging part is making that guess before a set retires. Most Star Wars sets are a safe buy when they go on clearance sale. The other themes are hit or miss.

I'm a huge Star Wars fan and a LEGO fan (recently out of Dark Ages) - but I wonder how far this golden goose (aka LEGO SW) can last.

Disney will probably milk this dry, pushing more and more films and merchandise, diluting the market (and pulling down the franchise)...

The only savior I predict (even though I'm a collector and an uber-new potential investor) is pre-Disney LEGO SW (easily identifiable since they put their logo on everything).

Thoughts?

43 minutes ago, kris_1973 said:

I'm a huge Star Wars fan and a LEGO fan (recently out of Dark Ages) - but I wonder how far this golden goose (aka LEGO SW) can last.

Disney will probably milk this dry, pushing more and more films and merchandise, diluting the market (and pulling down the franchise)...

The only savior I predict (even though I'm a collector and an uber-new potential investor) is pre-Disney LEGO SW (easily identifiable since they put their logo on everything).

Thoughts?

I don't think the Disney logo is going to make or break a set. There will be a demand for quality Lego sets. It's a matter of trying to esitmate what sets are going to be in demand post retirement.

What you need to do is find a way to pick out the winners amongst all the crap. Sometimes it will be less obvious, but first of all: most of the time if you don't think the set is great you should not touch it. There are of course exceptions such as sets that have limited availability or sets that have an amazing discount. Just to be clear: most of the SW sets that are currently available, are not going to be hugely profitable anytime soon.