REMAIN or LEAVE...What will happen to the non-US LEGO investor?

[jaisonline]

I believe in the reasons for the creation of what became the EU starting in the late 1940s & 1950s an.  WWII was a recent memory and European countries wanted peace and integration.  Then other benefits arose like easier travel through Europe.  I'm just not caught up with what's been happening lately and need to do more research.

In the meantime, here's a high level explanation for members.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zgjwtyc

[lukiepete]

I'd say I grew up with a heavy West Coast bias (born in Sacramento, raised in Seattle). The more I travel and understand different parts of the world, the more obvious it becomes that the real schism is between "city" and "country." If you ignore some of the incendiary language, this article from The Stranger has stuck with me as it dissected the 2000 election in the U.S. http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/the-urban-archipelago/Content?oid=19813

As the votes came in over the U.K. I'd say the same effects are at play. It's really city vs. country. Now... what the means to Lego investing? I go back to what I wrote in an earlier post -- if the U.K. really does plunge into a recession, it will be interesting to see what this does to the Lego market. There are already reports of markets jumping back into gold (the standard for fearful markets) and given this whole idea that "Lego is better than gold," ... well... how many people with some sterling are running around picking up all the SC or EV or whatever that they can? Personally, here in Paris, I'm thinking of doubling down.

[Salimr]

My mother in law is in London. So from what I'm understanding, I could be wrong, it may be a good time to visit her as I was going to anyway, because the dollar is strong against the pound? I could also pick up a bunch of Lego sets cheaper to bring back to the United States? 

[CrabslayerT]

3 hours ago, Val-E said:

Do you not count Antrim? According to the BBC they voted leave but then again they alleged a lot of things about Cliff Richard so who knows whether to trust them.

Was reading the Guardian and their little map was all blue. Antrim is slightly unusual anyway. As for Cliff Richard, he had good support in Daniel O'Donnell, Sure Daniels Mammy loved Cliff!

[Voltron]

On a serious note, the leave campaign never once said the would decrease immigration into the UK, they would keep it the same.

The current conservative government hasn't improved the NHS, helped the housing shortage, have cut pretty much all industries in uk (coal, renewable energy and pretty soon steel). With a track record of that not sure why a leave vote and some more money will help a party who only look after the upper class in society.

The people that said they were voting against the establishment failed to realise that the 2 main people from the leave campaign Boris Johnson  and Nigel Farage are anything but normal people, they were privately educated that lived privileged lives, Nigel was a former banker and Boris a career politician.

[Ciglione]

15 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

From what analysts reported, the vote has been one between old (exit) and young (remain) as well as, let me say, smart (remain) and stupid (exit). So, if you voted exit, but you're not old you gotta be... guess for yourself...

Yeah... the same old people who risked their lives on "Sword Beach and Gold Beach". And the young and stupid who at least know history.

 

[Val-E]

27 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

On a serious note, the leave campaign never once said the would decrease immigration into the UK, they would keep it the same.

The current conservative government hasn't improved the NHS, helped the housing shortage, have cut pretty much all industries in uk (coal, renewable energy and pretty soon steel). With a track record of that not sure why a leave vote and some more money will help a party who only look after the upper class in society.

The people that said they were voting against the establishment failed to realise that the 2 main people from the leave campaign Boris Johnson  and Nigel Farage are anything but normal people, they were privately educated that lived privileged lives, Nigel was a former banker and Boris a career politician.

Pretty astute reading of the situation. Not to mention the previous governments with their decision to waste money and lives by invading Iraq and progressive dismantling of the health service and transport network - none of which can be blamed on being a member of the EU.

As the UK is basically now a services country (no cars, mines, shipbuilding and what heavy industry left is in foreign hands anyway) the suppression of freedom of movement of goods is probably not going to affect exporters as much as it will hurt the pockets of the public when everything they import starts to cost more, including LEGO. Still, the great climate, wonderful language skills and hospitality towards foreigners that characterises middle England will surely make it the number one tourism destination of the future

It now seems the referendum was actually a disguised vote of confidence in the two main party leaders - both of whom will be out of a job soon.

 

Edited June 24, 2016 by Val-E

[BarryZola]

24 minutes ago, Mhd747 said:

On a serious note, the leave campaign never once said the would decrease immigration into the UK, they would keep it the same.

The current conservative government hasn't improved the NHS, helped the housing shortage, have cut pretty much all industries in uk (coal, renewable energy and pretty soon steel). With a track record of that not sure why a leave vote and some more money will help a party who only look after the upper class in society.

The people that said they were voting against the establishment failed to realise that the 2 main people from the leave campaign Boris Johnson  and Nigel Farage are anything but normal people, they were privately educated that lived privileged lives, Nigel was a former banker and Boris a career politician.

Have you considered that our leadership under our present UK government will be subject to a vote every several years, whereas our dominance by the EU would be permanent and largely un-elected? It's not hard. If we don't like the way things are going in our own country, we can change the political party leading us and demand a bit of change. It's a good job us Brexiters are switched on isn't it?

[fossilrock]

History you say? 

 

[Ciglione]

This is just a promotional video for Remain. So says nothing.

 

Talking about history... from wikipedia:

 

" In 1943, the German ministers Joachim von Ribbentrop and Cecil von Renthe-Fink eventually proposed the creation of a "European confederacy" as part of a New Order on the continent. The proposal, which attracted little support from the Nazi leadership, would have had a single currency, a central bank in Berlin, a regional principle, a labour policy and economic and trading agreements but left all states clearly subordinated to Nazi Germany.^[9] The countries proposed for inclusion were Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Spain. Such a German-led Europe, it was hoped, would serve as a strong alternative to the Communist Soviet Union and the United States.^[9] It is worth noting that the Benelux countries are omitted from the list of proposed countries, as their future integration into the German Reich had already been decided. "

 

Edited June 24, 2016 by Ciglione

[Calli]

5 hours ago, botchy123 said:

The UK is 57% the size of California. How is it possible to have 350,000 people entering the UK a  year with no background checks? Would the USA accept this ?

Stick to Lego if you think Greece is an emerging economy by the way !

Why do you need to be so emotional in all of your responses? and why would you background check fellow European citizens who want to come to the UK to study, work or live? If you talk about refugees, the figure is far far below 50.000 in 2015 for the UK. Per capita, thats a very small number. 

I agree that the EU bureaucracy is very, if not too extensive at time. However, from a consumers perspective it is often benefitial for us (e.g. cell phone roaming fees were significantly lowered over the last couple of years only because the EU made pressure).

One of the best things about Europe in my eyes is free access: for all EU citizens and companies. If the UK cannot stand eastern European workers (I guess that is the 350k you are referring to?), well then you cannot have access to the biggest single market in the world either. I respect the UK's decision but it's certain that it comes at a very high price. Just today 5 trillion Dollar in stock value were burned. 5.000.000.000.000.000.000 !  That is an insane number.

In a more and more globalized world, which is politically dominated by the US, China and Russia, relatively small countries like let's say the UK, France or Germany do not have such a strong voice as if they stay united - in form of the EU. The time of the British Empire is long over. The UK is not a super power anymore (I am not saying Germany is either) and quitting the EU does not put them in a political or economical pole position. Instead, it will put them in the second row. I doubt that this is in the best interest of the youth and future generations.

As for Lego I think that import customs will have to be beared by the consumers, a falling GBP will lead to higher Lego retail prices, and if the UK actually enters into a recession we could see values on the secondary market go down as more people than usually see a need to sell their Lego collections.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Calli

[CrabslayerT]

Northern Irish People with dual Irish/British passports will be both EU Citizens and not at the same time.

Schrodingers Catholics?

[Migration]

3 hours ago, CrabslayerT said:

Northern Irish People with dual Irish/British passports will be both EU Citizens and not at the same time.

Schrodingers Catholics?

You win the inter webs today, I've been laughing for a full five minutes.

[lobo1969]

7 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Yeah... the same old people who risked their lives on "Sword Beach and Gold Beach". And the young and stupid who at least know history.

 

Come now, the generation that fought and died on those beaches are in their 90s and barely registered a percentage point or two in total registered voters. History will also tell you heightened nationalism and isolationism didn't do Europe any favors.

[Val-E]

8 hours ago, BarryZola said:

Have you considered that our leadership under our present UK government will be subject to a vote every several years, whereas our dominance by the EU would be permanent and largely un-elected? It's not hard. If we don't like the way things are going in our own country, we can change the political party leading us and demand a bit of change. It's a good job us Brexiters are switched on isn't it?

There are elections for the European Parliament where the UK will now no longer have any representation or voice. Another thing is that people believe their Euro MP had a voice in the first place or bothered to vote for them.

The UK actually had a veto for key policy changes and not being a member of the euro protected them from some of the fall out of Grexit and Cyprus but anyway, what´s done is done and now they will need to manage by themselves for better or worse.

It will be interesting to see what international allies the new Prime Minister will make and what will happen to Gibraltar and all the expats with their healthcare. Will they go back to the UK for expensive operations?

Edited June 25, 2016 by Val-E

[gregpj]

Some posts were cleaned up... on topic folks.

[Frank Brickowski]

2 minutes ago, gregpj said:

Some posts were cleaned up... on topic folks.

I thought my post about applying some knowledge of human nature was not only pretty much on topic but also quite funny, yet it got deleted. Why?

[botchy123]

8 hours ago, Calli said:

Why do you need to be so emotional in all of your responses?

Yesterday was an emotional day.

I agree that the EU bureaucracy is very, if not too extensive at time. 

Did you know that a law imposed on us by Brussels states that it is illegal for a man on a UK beach to catch a Sea Bass from the sea and keep it? It's a small thing but the point is we have voted for better or worse to make our own laws and not have them enforced on us from someone with no accountability. Sometimes in life you have to stand up for yourself and say enough.

 If the UK cannot stand eastern European workers (I guess that is the 350k you are referring to?)

Interesting you say that as i think maybe some Europeans actually believe believe that. In my view very few people have that outlook towards any worker from wherever they come from. Only half of the 350K are EU people, mostly working. 

well then you cannot have access to the biggest single market in the world either. 

We realise that but the rest of the world is a big place. At least we can buy curved cucumbers instead of having to buy straight ones.

In a more and more globalized world, which is politically dominated by the US, China and Russia, relatively small countries like let's say the UK, France or Germany do not have such a strong voice as if they stay united - in form of the EU. 

We have accepted that to be the case, and we will move on.

As for Lego I think that import customs will have to be beared by the consumers, a falling GBP will lead to higher Lego retail prices, and if the UK actually enters into a recession we could see values on the secondary market go down as more people than usually see a need to sell their Lego collections.

Probably means they will sell less

 

No offence intended by the way. We are both European and always will be, but we will have a different style of government that's all. Not a great deal will change in the short term, outside of that i dont think anyone knows. One thing extra though, which you guys should look at is the EU really needs to get off it's power trip a little. 

 

[gregpj]

I thought my post about applying some knowledge of human nature was not only pretty much on topic but also quite funny, yet it got deleted. Why?

Fair question... Funny is always a matter of opinion but mostly because it was off topic and had nothing to do with the question at hand... Lego investing.

In a heated topic such as this one, inflammatory posts are likely to be scrubbed once it goes off the rails.

I'll take a look at it again later or other mods can take a look and put it back if they think it's ok (though it's the middle of the night for them).

[Frank Brickowski]

17 minutes ago, gregpj said:

Fair question... Funny is always a matter of opinion but mostly because it was off topic and had nothing to do with the question at hand... Lego investing.

In a heated topic such as this one, inflammatory posts are likely to be scrubbed once it goes off the rails.

I'll take a look at it again later or other mods can take a look and put it back if they think it's ok (though it's the middle of the night for them).

Thanks!

[redjersey]

Well I'm deeply sad that I am about to stripped of my European citizenship and the rights that it bestowed on me - not least the freedom to travel, live and work in any one of 28 nations across the continent. That's thanks to a needless referendum called by a Tory Prime Minister to appease a far right of his party terrified of losing their seats to the little Englander UKIP. 

Those on here who seem so keen to see the break-up of the EU and celebrate giving Johnny Foreigner a kicking would do well to note that if it does happen, it will have been caused by the rise of the far-right nationalism espoused by the likes of Wilders and Le Pen and their acolytes across Europe. Both my grandfather and father were called up to fight on European soil in wars that cost millions of lives. The fact that I, at 63 years old, and my son at 33 have lived our lives within Europe at peace and generally in harmony is thanks largely to the European Union in its many iterations.

As for Lego investing, frankly I'm too sad (and angry) at the outcome of this referendum to even care about the effect on sales of Star Wars lego sets. 

 

 

[GiliusThunderhead]

Not sure what this adds but I know a number of people have turned to Lego investing (or speculation or gambling - not getting into that here) as there savings are getting zero in the bank here in the UK and have looked for alternatives.  
Well with brexit I cant believe that trend is going to change anytime soon and maybe even will push back lower rates further in the UK.

More people will start to hunt out alternative places for any spare savings they have (and we're talking about £100's here not £1,000's).  The more media attention lego gets right now, the higher up in the interweb searches it becomes. I honestly think more people will take a look instead of laughing it off.

So short term it could mean deals get wiped out quicker as more people jump on them for investments.  So you might have to do more work on picking up sets.

Separately I think the UK is the biggest toy buyer markets in Europe (not sure where i read that).  A lot will depend on disposable income but I don't see any immediate "shocks" coming from brexit for the Lego investor.

[Will 4]

Well that petition for the new referendum just hit a million so it will have to be considered. Talk about sore losers what word is not understood in a once in a lifetime decision. 

[BearCrash]

1 minute ago, Will 4 said:

Well that petition for the new referendum just hit a million so it will have to be considered. Talk about sore losers what word is not understood in a once in a lifetime decision. 

You're talking about sore losers but according to a gazillion news reports I've read, it's a bunch of people who voted 'leave' that want to reconsider their vote because they realize they hadn't the faintest idea what they were voting for. Of course one should take those news reports with a grain of salt as well.

[redjersey]

15 minutes ago, Will 4 said:

Well that petition for the new referendum just hit a million so it will have to be considered. Talk about sore losers what word is not understood in a once in a lifetime decision. 

The Leave campaign would have been demanding a 2nd referendum had the vote been reversed. viz

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way."  Nigel Farage, 16th May 2016

Edited June 25, 2016 by redjersey