REMAIN or LEAVE...What will happen to the non-US LEGO investor?

[Ed Mack]

As an American, all of the recent discussions of the Brexit vote have really been intriguing.  With the votes being tabulated as I write this, what do non-US LEGO investors/resellers think of the situation and its effects on the various LEGO secondary markets?

PS: I usually don't want to get too involved in politics, but this has definite effects on all of us.  Please be respectful of others and their opinions.  Thanks...

[AirborneAFOL]

Incidentally, I did my International Relations masters thesis on the "inevitability of the EU's disintegration amidst increasingly proactive legislation of traditionally domestic policy matters".

My short version would be this won't have much impact on the broader LEGO market. Likely increases is tariffs shipping into and out of England would cut both ways - sellers there would find less competition from "international shippers", but become less competitive for "international sales" themselves.

A Brit would have to speak to whether they they consider themselves a net-exporter (hence Brexit bad for English sellers, good for the rest of EU), or vice versa...

[yang]

Just noticed that both Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.de won't ship Lego to USA now.

Have to admit, amazon reacts fast.

[Ciglione]

Very nice topic and this can become a very interesting discussion.

I hope the leave camp will win. Then me and my family might apply for asylum in the UK.

[botchy123]

6 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Then me and my family might apply for asylum in the UK.

No need to apply for assylum. Anyone is welcome as long as they work, if not you will be kicked out

[jbacunn]

Not informed enough on the topic to offer an opinion but it sure is interesting regardless of the outcome. 

 

 

[jerryherb]

i say good deals on amazon.co.uk once the "sorry" is lifted from the site when the pounding stops... i say 30-40% off US prices? arcos for $129 + shipping? sweet deal! and yes i mean $ not GBSP

Edited June 24, 2016 by jerryherb

[botchy123]

Live update for you

 

Leave is in Blue on the bottom

Edited June 24, 2016 by botchy123
x

[Darth_Raichu]

After spending a few minutes reading news & analysis about this topic:

1.  The word Brexit sounds like a brand of laxative

2. If UK is out of EU, things are going to be worse before getting better

3. Boris Johnson kind of looks like Donald Trump

 

[jerryherb]

6 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

After spending a few minutes reading news & analysis about this topic:

1.  The word Brexit sounds like a brand of laxative

2. If UK is out of EU, things are going to be worse before getting better

3. Boris Johnson kind of looks like Donald Trump

 

i choose worse, i got some interest in the pound/euro takin a big stanky ****,  more than i can swing with my lego stash during the high season

Edited June 24, 2016 by jerryherb

[BarryZola]

This is a massive deal for us in the UK. Don't underestimate how crazy our economy could go in the short and long term. You will be wise to look at the exchange rates in the next few weeks

I'm so glad that we've left the EU. We are out!

This is big

[Darth_Raichu]

1 minute ago, jerryherb said:

i choose worse, i got some interest in the pound/euro takin a big stanky

Notice I never quantified how much worse or how long it would take to get "better"

[jerryherb]

14 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Notice I never quantified how much worse or how long it would take to get "better"

worse means opportunity, some lose, others dont... welcome to the global recession! 3,2,1...

Edited June 24, 2016 by jerryherb

[Brian Briggs]

I regularly make purchases that are shipped from the UK (Mr Porter, Amazon etc.). So I might have to pay customs or do my shopping elsewhere in the future. With regards to LEGO investing I doubt this will have any impact on me.

[Val-E]

I predict a run on Amazon Uk stock today - now or never but remember to check your credit card´s exchange rate for the day before buying as it probably won´t be up-to-date

[Frank Brickowski]

5 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

As an American, all of the recent discussions of the Brexit vote have really been intriguing.  With the votes being tabulated as I write this, what do non-US LEGO investors/resellers think of the situation and its effects on the various LEGO secondary markets?

PS: I usually don't want to get too involved in politics, but this has definite effects on all of us.  Please be respectful of others and their opinions.  Thanks...

I'd say: A Brexit is bad for UK resellers and good for everybody else because now the UK relsellers' offers will be far less attractive to anyone outside the UK. Apart from that I think nothing will change really.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[Val-E]

14 minutes ago, Frank Brickowski said:

I'd say: A Brexit is bad for UK resellers and good for everybody else because now the UK relsellers' offers will be far less attractive to anyone outside the UK. Apart from that I think nothing will change really.

It depends on the performance of the pound. If it weakens further then that´s great for UK sellers and we will be flooded with Tumblers for less than RRP. If it strengthens, they will have a harder time selling but will buy more from abroad. The customs tariffs factor with EU countries may take years to negotiate.

[c_rpg]

I think there could be a massive impact for UK bricklink and ebay sellers. It depends on what the new trade agreements will say about taxes, but right now a buyer from Europe does not pay any taxes when buying from the UK. If you buy something from the US or Hong Kong, the item passes through customs and you pay local tax plus an additional fee. If Britain leaves the EU, we will have to pay the same taxes as any other non-eu country. This probably won't change overnight, but in a few years we can expect something like this.

Non-Lego rant:

I really can't blame people for voting leave after what is going on with Turkey. It doesn't even matter if you are pro- or anti-immigration. Of course there's a lot of other things going on, but this agreement with Erdogan leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

[Will 4]

Independence day yeeeees. Anyway the pounds collapse is good for selling which is good considering how much my shares were screwed (still cheap buying) looks like the article is true that Lego is a better investment than shares.

Also apparently they will 'not activate the article 50 clause until a new leader is in place which is expected in October

Edited June 24, 2016 by Will 4

[HandyHand]

In the long run travelling from the EU to England will be similar to travelling to Switzerland or Norway. And I'm sure in the long run things will stabilise when the UK makes separate (trade) agreements with EU countries just like Switzerland and Norway have done. 

But in the short run the uncertainty how all will work out and how the dust will settle is making the stock and financial markets turbulent and in negative sentiments. While the GBP is down because of that uncertainty, but before the leave has been made official, it will be good trading for us. LEGO sets in GBP prices will be cheaper for us EU citizens, while selling sets to EU customers will be good business for the Brits.

[botchy123]

3 minutes ago, Haay said:

In the long run travelling from the EU to England will be similar to travelling to Switzerland or Norway. And I'm sure in the long run things will stabilise when the UK makes separate (trade) agreements with EU countries just like Switzerland and Norway have done. 

But in the short run the uncertainty how all will work out and how the dust will settle is making the stock and financial markets turbulent and in negative sentiments. While the GBP is down because of that uncertainty, but before the leave has been made official, it will be good trading for us. LEGO sets in GBP prices will be cheaper for us EU citizens, while selling sets to EU customers will be good business for the Brits.

Yep, it's turned full circle

[Val-E]

There is a real possibility that other member states will follow the same path - who wants to be bankrolling Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Ireland with very little in return? There could be a new  union solely based on free trade but with less emphasis on cohesion in terms of common policies, taxation and economic policy.

The UK is certainly going to have to spend more on defence and border controls now.

[BarryZola]

6 minutes ago, Val-E said:

There is a real possibility that other member states will follow the same path - who wants to be bankrolling Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Ireland with very little in return? There could be a new  union solely based on free trade but with less emphasis on cohesion in terms of common policies, taxation and economic policy.

The UK is certainly going to have to spend more on defence and border controls now.

We'll still be part of NATO though so that always helps. I would envisage extra money spent on border controls though, as you've suggested. Maybe even our own army could actually do some work to defend our own country. A novel idea, I know

But yeah, buy from the UK whilst the Pound is low in the next few days, if it works for you with the right product.

[Sprocket77]

You leave guys won't be smiling when Boris Johnson is your new Prime Minister, law of unintended consequences.

Scary thought of the day, by the end of this year, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Vladimir Putin could all be world leaders.

[Val-E]

And when Scotland declares independence unilaterally! Now I know why we didn´t qualify for Euro 2016 - it was all part of the masterplan.