What Happened?: 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[Fcbarcelona101]

29 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

I still got 4...flipped 10-15...

21 listed on eBay, price stars from 379.99...not bad.

The set isn't producing a bad return in aggregate, but when you consider that you could have sold it for the same $380 over a year ago, that's when it starts looking as a bad idea to keep holding them.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

37 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

 

21 listed on eBay, price stars from 379.99...not bad.

.  Its only bad because people's Expectations were sky high.  ( Including myself )
Inventory is starting to thin Out.  

We have to let this one marinade just a little bit more. 
As I see it, its only been eol for 2 years. (it was early 2014).
 

BTW, the 41999 box art has to be one of the best of all time.

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Miami Bomb Squad

[brickolodon]

2016 will be rise of 41999...as everybody said b4 the biggest problem is not many ppl knows about this set.

[nolanfan34]

I kept one. I still think the future of the set was limited when they (apparently) decided to not do this limited edition type of set again. If they had continued on a fan-designed 20k limited production run series, this set would have a very different future, even being Technic. Let's face it, if they had made Market Street and never continued the Modular series, there's no way those are worth what they are now.

Same comment for Research Institute in a way. :-)

[citymorgue]

On ‎5‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 10:01 AM, Fcbarcelona101 said:

As one would expect, the hype surrounding the set meant that most brick and mortar locations sold out as soon as they put the set on the shelves. In turn, prices on eBay and other online platforms rose to close to $450, with sets selling within minutes of being listed as collectors worried about it becoming even more expensive, investors hoped for the next $1,000 set and, as some of you might remember, some even attempted to corner the market by acquiring dozens of copies a day.

 

I remember when I got back into Lego for the first time in October 2013, I happened to walk into the Lego store in SLC, and was blown away, and insta-nostalgia came back hard and heavy.

Not too long later I discovered this site, and actually noticed 41999.  But even though it wasn't that long, it was already completely gone, and I was pretty pissed off by the whole thing.  But oh well, I've gotten over it and have not really had any desire to really think about getting this set.

All the while this was going on, we kept hearing about you know who, buying up all the stock constantly trying to control the market, and I just find it funny, because he was buying these even at the inflated $400+.  I wonder if he has any regrets ever trying to attempt to corner the market to ask insane prices because he's pretty much the only person with them.  I wonder if he still has his ridiculous stash of these things too.

Either way, as others have mentions, Technic is already a niche enough product, so to have something limited like this to something that isn't even anything noteworthy, doesn't help.  If this was a regular system model, I could see it skyrocketing in price.  But you live and learn right?

[Darth_Raichu]

15 hours ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

BTW, the 41999 box art has to be one of the best of all time.

 

41999 box is my benchmark for the packaging of the new Technic Porsche.

[KShine]

2 hours ago, citymorgue said:

All the while this was going on, we kept hearing about you know who, buying up all the stock constantly trying to control the market, and I just find it funny, because he was buying these even at the inflated $400+.  I wonder if he has any regrets ever trying to attempt to corner the market to ask insane prices because he's pretty much the only person with them.  I wonder if he still has his ridiculous stash of these things too.

I have found that cornering the market (or trying to) isn't all that its cracked up to be.

If you are able to do it - It is usually a sign that there is a great limitation to the actual interest for the item.

Edited May 10, 2016 by KShine

[tjj1984]

59 minutes ago, KShine said:

I have found that cornering the market (or trying to) isn't all that its cracked up to be.

If you are able to do it - It is usually a sign that there is a great limitation to the actual interest for the item.

Unless of course it's frozen concentrated orange juice.

[mayor]

3 years ago, is just about the time prices did a whoo!!I too, a no brain er, ($1,000) a Sett!! Remember the contractor fellow, in England who had bought a few thousand sets!!!!! We was paying close too and in some cases, double your money! It was profitable and fun to acquiring them not more than 15 minutes before the doors at the Lego store opened. selling the 41999. It is a Beautiful truck and will always have a PARKING space of LEGO HISTORY .

Those were the days..................

Lets make a book.............A book about That Block of Time..............three years ago,...........everything about the selling the 41999. A whole spectrum of people, RIGHT HERE. Bob Hall

[emazers]

And he got all 25 of mine for $400 each. all shipped Express mail, his expense and no ebay fees.

[Phil B]

24 minutes ago, mayor said:

3 years ago, is just about the time prices did a whoo!!I too, a no brain er, ($1,000) a Sett!! Remember the contractor fellow, in England who had bought a few thousand sets!!!!! We was paying close too and in some cases, double your money! It was profitable and fun to acquiring them not more than 15 minutes before the doors at the Lego store opened. selling the 41999. It is a Beautiful truck and will always have a PARKING space of LEGO HISTORY .

Those were the days..................

Lets make a book.............A book about That Block of Time..............three years ago,...........everything about the selling the 41999. A whole spectrum of people, RIGHT HERE. Bob Hall

Nice ... unfortunately the 41999 Thread is no longer to be found on this forum (at least I cannot find it using search - perhaps I need to do a manual run-through of all the forum posts but who has the time ....) .. I'd love to read up on the fun that was had.

[jaisonline]

2 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Nice ... unfortunately the 41999 Thread is no longer to be found on this forum (at least I cannot find it using search - perhaps I need to do a manual run-through of all the forum posts but who has the time ....) .. I'd love to read up on the fun that was had.

Your wish is granted. Ha

 

 

[Phil B]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

Your wish is granted. Ha

 

 

8 pages in and I come across this gem from everyone's favorite guru Ed. We're 3 years later now ..... let's see how that plays out

On 7/31/2013 at 10:38 PM, emazers said:

I was going to try and get 8 of these, but I was thinking in 5 years what would make you more money, 8 4x4 Crawler 41999, or 8 LOTR Tower of Orthanc, or 8 Haunted Houses, 7 Tower Bridges, 7 Batman Arkham, I am thinking The Tower Bridge would do way better than all of them. What do you guys think. Ed

Tower Bridge got more love letters after that comment - let's check the facts right now using the BP Price Guide:

8x 4x4 Crawler RRP $199.99 - now $363.13; diff $163.14 - total $1305.12 gross profit (81% ROI)

8x ToO RRP $199.99 - now $268.20; diff $68.21 - total $545.68 gross profit (34% ROI)

8x HH RRP $179.99 - now $399.93; diff $219.94 - total $1759.52 gross profit (122% ROI)

7x TB RRP $239.99 - now $212.13; diff -$27.86 - total $195.02 gross loss (-12% ROI)

7x AA RRP $159.99 - now $245.73; diff $85.74 - total $600.18 gross profit (54% ROI)

Sure, TB hasn't retired yet so no uptick there - there's also 2 more years to go. Looking at this, the answer should have been "Haunted House" but even the maligned 41999 doesn't seem to have fared so badly ........

 

[Val-E]

4 hours ago, Phil B said:

8 pages in and I come across this gem from everyone's favorite guru Ed. We're 3 years later now ..... let's see how that plays out

Tower Bridge got more love letters after that comment - let's check the facts right now using the BP Price Guide:

8x 4x4 Crawler RRP $199.99 - now $363.13; diff $163.14 - total $1305.12 gross profit (81% ROI)

8x ToO RRP $199.99 - now $268.20; diff $68.21 - total $545.68 gross profit (34% ROI)

8x HH RRP $179.99 - now $399.93; diff $219.94 - total $1759.52 gross profit (122% ROI)

7x TB RRP $239.99 - now $212.13; diff -$27.86 - total $195.02 gross loss (-12% ROI)

7x AA RRP $159.99 - now $245.73; diff $85.74 - total $600.18 gross profit (54% ROI)

Sure, TB hasn't retired yet so no uptick there - there's also 2 more years to go. Looking at this, the answer should have been "Haunted House" but even the maligned 41999 doesn't seem to have fared so badly ........

 

The correct move with 20/20 hindsight, which Emazer and many others did, was to flip the Crawlers and reinvest in Town Halls,SSD´s, HH´s or 7965´s - especially if discounted.

It´s interesting that some people followed a similar strategy with Town Hall of buying at double MSRP and expecting the growth curve to maintain itself and that hread has sure gone quiet so I guess they are not making money yet.

If the gap between 9398 and 41999 starts to narrow, there could be a further bump for the LE, but for now it seems to have settled in at slightly above double RRP, which is what it was worth back in 2014. TH and HH have also bedded in at current prices since last year so it´s clearly a market for the very impatient or the very patient.

[Phil B]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

The correct move with 20/20 hindsight, which Emazer and many others did, was to flip the Crawlers and reinvest in Town Halls,SSD´s, HH´s or 7965´s - especially if discounted.

It´s interesting that some people followed a similar strategy with Town Hall of buying at double MSRP and expecting the growth curve to maintain itself and that hread has sure gone quiet so I guess they are not making money yet.

If the gap between 9398 and 41999 starts to narrow, there could be a further bump for the LE, but for now it seems to have settled in at slightly above double RRP, which is what it was worth back in 2014. TH and HH have also bedded in at current prices since last year so it´s clearly a market for the very impatient or the very patient.

Emazers has some really really solid and good investing tips in the 41999 thread. Hat off to Ed. Very balanced - warning people of the fleeting attractiveness of the Crawler, urging people to diversify, putting his money on several exclusives in big numbers. I can see where his guru status comes from.

Yes sure, he went 50 deep on Tower Bridge (and likely on Death Star as well) which turned out to be a long run effort, but from what I've read so far in the 41999 thread he offsets that with some really solid investments that allow him to sit on these for a while without feeling the pain.

So hopefully my original "let's see what happened" post didn't come over as talking him down (that wasn't the intent anyways, I just liked the fact that there was a prediction from him and wanted to see/show the outcome of that prediction currently) because he knows what he is doing.

 

[stephen_rockefeller]

All hail to mighty emazers!!!! We are not worthy.......we are not worthy!!!!!!!!

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

All hail to mighty emazers!!!! We are not worthy.......we are not worthy!!!!!!!!

Like everyone, he gets some wrong - Daily Bugle anyone? The important thing is to get it right with the big money and know when to fold.

[Sprocket77]

On 5/10/2016 at 1:35 PM, citymorgue said:

All the while this was going on, we kept hearing about you know who, buying up all the stock constantly trying to control the market, and I just find it funny, because he was buying these even at the inflated $400+.  

 

Voldemort was a Lego reseller? Explains a lot. 

[KShine]

11 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

All hail to mighty emazers!!!! We are not worthy.......we are not worthy!!!!!!!!

I think it's the profile photo.

When he launches into a "You're all wasting your time buying the small crap, they are worthless, you'll all be gone in a year. You gotta buy the big sets" post - it somehow helps to see the face that's yelling at you.

[citymorgue]

I just feel that Emazers strategy of only buying exclusives doesn't work as well as it used to.  There are too many people biting off the profits that used to flow so easily, but the gold rush is over and you have find other ways to make money off of Lego sets.  Plus very, very, very few people have the capital to just buy 20, 30, 50 of an exclusive and just stash it away.  It takes a smart one now to really find the gems that can net them money.

[jaisonline]

all,

please do not turn this great blog / article's topic  into one about specific members and their investment strategies

[Buchimuer]

So what reasonable price range for this set NIB right now?

[stephen_rockefeller]

2 minutes ago, Buchimuer said:

So what reasonable price range for this set NIB right now?

Selling it where?

[marcandre]

$360 or so seems to be the going rate

[Buchimuer]

Selling it where?

I'm buying...from EBay or BL

$360 or so seems to be the going rate

Yeah. Seems you are right. I saw one on BL for $330 yesterday. But it's gone by now.