New Versions of Older Exclusives - what does it mean to LEGO Investing

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

Plus it is easier to haul 4+ boxes of exclusives with a truck than in one of those sports cars with little to no trunks 

I also drive a Corvette that is currently filled with LEGO sets.

[TheOrcKing]

Here's my ride.

[Val-E]

8 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I also drive a Corvette that is currently filled with LEGO sets.

That´s the problem with US cars, they are designed to oblige you to buy a second car to do the jobs that the first one can´t!

[Serejai]

My Tesla can hold quite a lot of LEGO sets... what with the two trunks and all.

[citymorgue]

I still feel all the doom and gloom is just being overdramatic.  I honestly doubt there will be a huge crash in the lego economy like the recession.  It'll be more of a correction in the sense that profit margins will get so thin, that it will naturally thin the herd or those casual investors, or those that don't know what they are doing.  Eventually once those people that have no idea what's going on and all fire sell their stuff, and those that can weather the storm will be just fine.

Yes I understand people's fears of remakes, but honestly, out of the thousands upon thousands of sets Lego has produced, they are still releasing cool new fresh sets. (This year being an odd one, only because the last 3 exclusives IMO suckkkkk major you know what.) Look at the new technic sets, possibly Big Ben, etc.  We already had fantastic models in the GBHQ and brick bank.

I feel the worry should start happening when everything becomes a remake or a direct copy.  The Death Star, could still be significantly different enough to not hurt any value from the previous two iterations.  If the Carousel is true, I doubt, that no matter how different it'll probably hurt the value of the old one.  (I differentiate between the two, only because Star Wars fans will pay a price to have a complete UCS collection no matter who you are talking about, and I don't think the people who generally buy the fairground theme are going to exactly be clamoring to have both version of a carousel.)  With the snowspeeder, just like the X-wing, I expect that one to take a hit a bit, but I don't think too much, only because of some of the parts and rarity of them will keep the prices high.

You guys are also going hard on the speculation as if you know exactly what's coming out.  I think you guys need to calm it a bit and just wait until more information trickles in and go from there.

One thing I can say about this site, is that even though it has quite the significant amount of members, you know a bunch aren't active, and as far as the entire country/world is concerned, we're smaller than a drop in the bucket.  The normal person doesn't follow the news and rumors and everything like we do out here.  Most people will just walk into a store, and see a set they like and buy it.  I will bet you anything that most people, probably don't even know that some of the 'remakes' are even remakes at all.  I know when I first got into this game, I never realized the sets that I had missed out on in the last decade until I discovered this site and did more research.  Mainly because I became a fanatic again like when I was a kid. So without knowing, the first few times I walked into a Lego store, I never would've known if anything had ever been released before.

[weitzel78]

I can understand those who have been in the game for the past decade not being thrilled about remakes. But as a collector who missed most of those sets, I will probably buy 6 out of 12 on the list, in addition to the Ghostbusters Firehouse I already own.

As an investor, the biggest issue I see with TLG releasing this many D2C sets is that it may reduce demand for retired sets as collectors can get a lot more for their money buying new sets at RRP.

Edited April 23, 2016 by weitzel78

[Mos_Eisley]

15 hours ago, citymorgue said:

I still feel all the doom and gloom is just being overdramatic.  I honestly doubt there will be a huge crash in the lego economy like the recession.  It'll be more of a correction in the sense that profit margins will get so thin, that it will naturally thin the herd or those casual investors, or those that don't know what they are doing.  Eventually once those people that have no idea what's going on and all fire sell their stuff, and those that can weather the storm will be just fine.

Yes I understand people's fears of remakes, but honestly, out of the thousands upon thousands of sets Lego has produced, they are still releasing cool new fresh sets. (This year being an odd one, only because the last 3 exclusives IMO suckkkkk major you know what.) Look at the new technic sets, possibly Big Ben, etc.  We already had fantastic models in the GBHQ and brick bank.

I feel the worry should start happening when everything becomes a remake or a direct copy.  The Death Star, could still be significantly different enough to not hurt any value from the previous two iterations.  If the Carousel is true, I doubt, that no matter how different it'll probably hurt the value of the old one.  (I differentiate between the two, only because Star Wars fans will pay a price to have a complete UCS collection no matter who you are talking about, and I don't think the people who generally buy the fairground theme are going to exactly be clamoring to have both version of a carousel.)  With the snowspeeder, just like the X-wing, I expect that one to take a hit a bit, but I don't think too much, only because of some of the parts and rarity of them will keep the prices high.

You guys are also going hard on the speculation as if you know exactly what's coming out.  I think you guys need to calm it a bit and just wait until more information trickles in and go from there.

One thing I can say about this site, is that even though it has quite the significant amount of members, you know a bunch aren't active, and as far as the entire country/world is concerned, we're smaller than a drop in the bucket.  The normal person doesn't follow the news and rumors and everything like we do out here.  Most people will just walk into a store, and see a set they like and buy it.  I will bet you anything that most people, probably don't even know that some of the 'remakes' are even remakes at all.  I know when I first got into this game, I never realized the sets that I had missed out on in the last decade until I discovered this site and did more research.  Mainly because I became a fanatic again like when I was a kid. So without knowing, the first few times I walked into a Lego store, I never would've known if anything had ever been released before.

The average consumer who is blindly buying sets at retail is not the person who is buying expensive, retired sets. The people who are dropping $800+ on retired sets are well aware of what has been made before and are going to be much more aware of sets that are rumored to be coming out in the near future.  

[CoastaLego]

26 minutes ago, weitzel78 said:

I can understand those who have been in the game for the past decade not being thrilled about remakes. But as a collector who missed most of those sets, I will probably buy 6 out of 12 on the list, in addition to the Ghostbusters Firehouse I already own.

As an investor, the biggest issue I see with TLG releasing this many D2C sets is that it may reduce demand for retired sets as collectors can get a lot more for their money buying new sets at RRP.

This is exactly how I feel. Take the modulars for example.  I am new to the game and the older ones look cool but I am not even paying 350 for 1 never the less 1k when I have 5 on the market to choose from for around 150 each not even to mention all the other great sets out.  My house is only so big (not that I havnt bought some old sets but the more new that comes out the more I focus on what's currently on the market)

[Frank Brickowski]

The alleged or factual (big) wave of rehashes will - imo - have an impact on some investors, not all (again). Should the trend become a rule it will become more and more of a bad idea to combine investing in non-licensed themes with long-term holding. This will also apply (more than before) to long-running licenses like Star Wars - which bears the same rehash risk already (or even more) like non-licensed themes. Smart investors will draw their conclusions from this. Sets that appear to be great investments on first sight might actually be inferior investmens on second sight - this did in fact apply all the time already, but even more from now on. If people were more drawn to Slave 1 or the Ferris Wheel recently, they might feel differently now looking at the background of these alleged killer sets: Star Wars and Creator. Even momentarily bashed investments like the Tumbler or Tower of Orthanc might soon be felt differently about (at least for long-term holding) because the possibility of a comeback of the TDK or (original) LOTR licenses is (close to) zero. In the end TLG might be doing a favor to knowledgeable investors after all because choosing the right sets just becomes more difficult which makes it harder for newbies - so, instead of seeing the rehash wave as the beginning of the end, it might have its advantages if you adapt your strategy.

For those that criticise TLG for obviously running out of ideas, I have to say: Sure, it looks like their creativity is lacking and it will have an impact on their image. Even more so if people get the (I think correct) impression that the creativity TLG has been known for, is increasingly being traded off for maximising profit. Well, you gotta live with that. Obviously creativity brought them to the top, but it won't keep them there. We have seen strategic changes like that in other fields too. Creativity is nice and makes you likeable, but it is also economically expensive. So it's probably safer to make a rehash of an old set that has already proven to be successful some years ago, than taking the risk of creating something completely new (while to result in TLGs case might be that people ignore your output completely -> Toy Shop remakes still sitting on Lego Store shelves by the end of April?). I do have my reservations about the long-term success of this strategy as LEGO fans seem to be very, very critical in terms of the creativity of new sets and TLGs reputation has already taken a hit in that regard from the "floppy" new releases of the last few months alone. So, what might be a good idea for the movie business (less creativity = safer profit) could in the end be a bad idea for construction toys.

However you cannot deny that the amount of ideas for (sensible) Lego sets is limited the same way creativity is limited for (sensible) new movies, songs, books, video games - after some decades of consumption you inevitably reach the point of no return, where everything "new" you are presented is just a rehash of something you already know.

Edited April 23, 2016 by Frank Brickowski

[citymorgue]

8 hours ago, Mos_Eisley said:

The average consumer who is blindly buying sets at retail is not the person who is buying expensive, retired sets. The people who are dropping $800+ on retired sets are well aware of what has been made before and are going to be much more aware of sets that are rumored to be coming out in the near future.  

Yes that is true, but you also have to look deep inside and realize that aren't owed any profits on Lego sets.  You are making money off of something that Lego puts millions of dollars into time and effort, and molds, etc to create this set for you to make money on.  (Please, I don't want any of you to think I'm against reselling.  I've done it more than my fair share.  Not really the whole buy brand new sets and stash away, but buying something and later just reselling it if I don't need it anymore.)

So really, it seems like, for some anyways, the anger is being misplaced for something Lego is consciously doing to regain some of that money that could go into their pockets versus resellers.  I don't blame Lego at all honestly.  It's their business, they can do what they want.  You guys just seem to be seriously complaining that the gravy train has slowed to crawl for you.  I can understand, but at the same time, either you adapt or die out.

6 hours ago, Frank Brickowski said:

However you cannot deny that the amount of ideas for (sensible) Lego sets is limited the same way creativity is limited for (sensible) new movies, songs, books, video games - after some decades of consumption you inevitably reach the point of no return, where everything "new" you are presented is just a rehash of something you already know.

This has been one problem I generally have with Hollywood and the like these days.  Sure there are still some pretty damn creative films that exist, but most everything has been done in one form or another.  So yes, remakes are an unfortunate side effect.  This goes to Lego as well.  They are a business, and as such have to find a way to create new fresh ideas without going bankrupt at the same time.  They don't have the luxury like MOCers to be able to devote insane amounts of time and money and effort to creating an epic 40,000 piece monstrosity.  They have to cater to the market that they can most easily tap into.  I just see them easily capitalizing on the secondary market.  The main R&D aspect is already completed since they've already released a set.  So really, cost wise they could probably bank a ton more money than a brand new developed set.

Like I said, it sucks for some, but the big heavy hitters can easily survive.  At the end of the day, Lego is a toy.  It's meant to be opened and played with, not for just a pure profit making machine for the end user.

[Ed Mack]

10 hours ago, citymorgue said:

Yes that is true, but you also have to look deep inside and realize that aren't owed any profits on Lego sets.  You are making money off of something that Lego puts millions of dollars into time and effort, and molds, etc to create this set for you to make money on.  (Please, I don't want any of you to think I'm against reselling.  I've done it more than my fair share.  Not really the whole buy brand new sets and stash away, but buying something and later just reselling it if I don't need it anymore.)

So really, it seems like, for some anyways, the anger is being misplaced for something Lego is consciously doing to regain some of that money that could go into their pockets versus resellers.  I don't blame Lego at all honestly.  It's their business, they can do what they want.  You guys just seem to be seriously complaining that the gravy train has slowed to crawl for you.  I can understand, but at the same time, either you adapt or die out.

 

 Spoken like a true non-reseller/investor. 

[fossilrock]

On ‎4‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 4:41 PM, Ed Mack said:

Well, they ran out of ideas so they have to start reproducing the oldies.  Good ideas are just so hard to come by!

I have my doubts they will re-release many of the older modulars....  I never collected these up until this year, and the Pet Shop was my first one.  Then I bought some of the others.  I grew to really dig these and am now a fan, but I will say, I hope they don't re-release the old ones like Green Grocer, Grand Hotel, and Fire Brigade.  I don't have them, but I look at it as my loss.  There are so many others they can do like you see above.  I can think of a police station, post office, doctors office, countless restaurant themes etc that need to be done before they should even think of dipping back into the older ones.  So, hopefully they keep it fresh. Sure maybe eventually they can mix in new hotel or mall type themes, but hopefully they will be updated, and fresh.

 

[Val-E]

As I mentioned before, not retiring PS will do more damage to many´s portfolios than re releasing an oldie. I would say there is a more than 50% chance of CC coming back in the next 5 years.

[dcdfan]

As I mentioned before, not retiring PS will do more damage to many´s portfolios than re releasing an oldie. I would say there is a more than 50% chance of CC coming back in the next 5 years.

It'll be different though, it'll be on the other corner...

[Poly 30286]

Regarding the rerelease of modulars, that could be a slippery slope. LEGO needs to make them similar enough to substitute, but different enough to keep the original collectors engaged. I'd be super angry if I had spent $1k on CC/MS/GG only to find a carbon copy enter the market EVER. It would probably cause me to abandon the line. If they can finesse these into complementary sets rather than a true redux... I still don't know. Give us 15 modulars before you start backtracking. WInter Village Toy Shop should be enough of an indication.

[Val-E]

8 hours ago, Poly 30286 said:

Regarding the rerelease of modulars, that could be a slippery slope. LEGO needs to make them similar enough to substitute, but different enough to keep the original collectors engaged. I'd be super angry if I had spent $1k on CC/MS/GG only to find a carbon copy enter the market EVER. It would probably cause me to abandon the line. If they can finesse these into complementary sets rather than a true redux... I still don't know. Give us 15 modulars before you start backtracking. WInter Village Toy Shop should be enough of an indication.

Those few people who spent upwards of 1k USD still have the original version plus Lego is more interested in the thousands of people it could sell the new one to. As DCD mentioned, they could simply mirror it like a bad youtube video and be done. It hasn´t stopped them remaking the UCS X Wing so I don´t see the isssue almost 10 years down the line.

[citymorgue]

On 4/23/2016 at 3:03 PM, Ed Mack said:

 Spoken like a true non-reseller/investor. 

Of course I don't resell.  But I still look at the investment part.  For the most part.  This is the one hobby, that if they became worthless I just wouldn't care, because I love Lego so much.  My other hobbies, I do look at everything.  My tarantulas for instance.  I'm scaling my operation down to a few males for breeding projects, but that's it.  I've sold off a lot of them and have already made back all my investment and I still have hundreds more worth of tarantulas to sell.

But in the end, I don't begrudge any resellers making money. I've said this before.  If you can do it great, but it's true that Lego doesn't owe you those profits.  Sure there is a balancing act, as Lego doesn't want to ruin their own brand, but if they want to take some of that money and put it into their own pockets, they have every right to do so.

[Poly 30286]

On April 24, 2016 at 2:38 AM, Val-E said:

Those few people who spent upwards of 1k USD still have the original version plus Lego is more interested in the thousands of people it could sell the new one to. As DCD mentioned, they could simply mirror it like a bad youtube video and be done. It hasn´t stopped them remaking the UCS X Wing so I don´t see the isssue almost 10 years down the line.

I was just browsing Star Wars sets, and I had no idea how many times LEGO has remade sets. I'm going to get off my pity pot. For TLG, it does make sense to duplicate sets that have performed well or even had a post-EOL surge. Die hard collectors will want both versions, and newer collectors will get a chance to catch up. Also, introducing new versions will ultimately reduce demand for the previous version (assuming that the new one is comparable or better). 

There is no safe territory 

[Battrax]

 

25 minutes ago, Poly 30286 said:

I was just browsing Star Wars sets, and I had no idea how many times LEGO has remade sets. I'm going to get off my pity pot. For TLG, it does make sense to duplicate sets that have performed well or even had a post-EOL surge. Die hard collectors will want both versions, and newer collectors will get a chance to catch up. Also, introducing new versions will ultimately reduce demand for the previous version (assuming that the new one is comparable or better). 

There is no safe territory 

Except for Prince of Persia. Those aren't getting released again.

[beatpoppa]

A Lord Of The Rings remake is not walking through that door...

[Ed Mack]

22 hours ago, citymorgue said:

Of course I don't resell.  But I still look at the investment part.  For the most part.  This is the one hobby, that if they became worthless I just wouldn't care, because I love Lego so much.  My other hobbies, I do look at everything.  My tarantulas for instance.  I'm scaling my operation down to a few males for breeding projects, but that's it.  I've sold off a lot of them and have already made back all my investment and I still have hundreds more worth of tarantulas to sell.

But in the end, I don't begrudge any resellers making money. I've said this before.  If you can do it great, but it's true that Lego doesn't owe you those profits.  Sure there is a balancing act, as Lego doesn't want to ruin their own brand, but if they want to take some of that money and put it into their own pockets, they have every right to do so.

You keep on talking about LEGO owing us profits.  Who says this?  They make and take billions in profits for making plastic bricks, so forgive me if I don't throw them a pity parade.  As for you not caring about the value of LEGO, I really doubt that is true.  Everyone cares, even the elitists who say they "just build for the love of LEGO."  Let's be real, the value of LEGO has and always go hand in hand with its success.  It is a toy for the affluent and the perceived (and actual) value keeps the product cool and hip...and only accessible to higher incomes and brain power.  I don't want LEGO to get lazy with product design.  For the most part, their products are friggin' fantastic and I'm so lucky to have the ability to own such a wonder collection of iconic toys and products.  

There is no bigger supporter of LEGO than me, but if I see them producing inferior products, I will call them out.  I want to nip it in the bud and keep the company strong.  I have a lot to lose...

[waddamon]

I'll chime in.  Lego needs us more than we need them.  They have good up and coming competition, licenses chase success.  If Lego loses creativity, remakes the same old stuff, especially the big sets, they will kill their allure.  Not many toys(yes they are kids toys) cost as much as these.  It will take a while but greed will be their downfall, always is.  I won't spend big money on sets if they will be "mega blocks" after I open them.  Just not going to happen.  Same for the masses.  I agree with Ed.

[KShine]

1 hour ago, waddamon said:

I'll chime in.  Lego needs us more than we need them.

Since being a big buyer (or even a not so big buyer) of their product could get you banned - I somehow doubt that we are really needed that much.

[citymorgue]

13 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

You keep on talking about LEGO owing us profits.  Who says this?  They make and take billions in profits for making plastic bricks, so forgive me if I don't throw them a pity parade.  As for you not caring about the value of LEGO, I really doubt that is true.  Everyone cares, even the elitists who say they "just build for the love of LEGO."  Let's be real, the value of LEGO has and always go hand in hand with its success.  It is a toy for the affluent and the perceived (and actual) value keeps the product cool and hip...and only accessible to higher incomes and brain power.  I don't want LEGO to get lazy with product design.  For the most part, their products are friggin' fantastic and I'm so lucky to have the ability to own such a wonder collection of iconic toys and products.  

There is no bigger supporter of LEGO than me, but if I see them producing inferior products, I will call them out.  I want to nip it in the bud and keep the company strong.  I have a lot to lose...

Well, it's not being said directly, but there are some complaining that they aren't earning as much as they used to, and that's my point.

I don't really care as much as you may believe.  I love my Lego no matter what, and when I got into my dark ages, I never thought about value, I just willingly gave them to my step-brother's kid so he could enjoy them.  Of course looking back, sure I regret the decision, but it's not the end of the world.  I have plenty of stuff that holds no monetary value, but I'll never get rid of because of what they mean to me as a collector and such.  I still have some beanie babies that I won't give up, even if they magically became worth money again.  I don't care that they lost hundreds in value years ago.  There are just things that I collect because I enjoy, not because of their inherent value.

I don't want Lego to get Lazy either, by any stretch.  I would be disappointed if Lego crumbled all over again, but they aren't exactly just producing inferior products left and right.  Even in this day and age of Lego, they are going to have some pretty big crash and burns.  Re-makes are going to happen, but you have to admit, that even some of these really old sets could really use a refresher.

See and that's the difference.  You have a lot to lose from this.  I don't feel that way.  I will just be able to enjoy my sets from here on out.  It'll be a little cringe if they stopped being worth more than the plastic, but I wouldn't feel like I 'lost' anything.  I still have the product to enjoy for many many years to come.

[Malachi1984]

I think some of the new versions are good It gives people a chance to get the updated version of the set without paying silly money for something that looks dated like with the sand crawler